Arctic Oscillation Research Articles

Joint Impact of the AO and ENSO on Vegetation NPP Over Indo‐Myanmar in Boreal Winter

AbstractIn this paper, the authors quantitatively investigated the joint impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winter from 1981 to 2018, and found that there is a significant in‐phase variation between them. When the warm ENSO co‐occurs with the positive AO, the NPP in more than 80% of the grids in the study region significantly increases by approximately 24 gC m−2. For the cold ENSO plus the negative AO, the regionally averaged NPP anomalies are approximately −10 gC m−2, and the local minimum is as low as −60 gC m−2. The combination of AO and ENSO can explain approximately 36% of the total variance of NPP in Indo‐Myanmar. The AO/ENSO linkages to the NPP are very likely due to regional precipitation anomalies through atmospheric circulation. In association with the positive (negative) AO, the Rossby wave, propagating eastward along the subtropical jet stream, brings an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over Indo‐Myanmar. This enhances (weakens) Indo‐Myanmar Trough, and resulting in more (less) regional precipitation. During the warm (cold) ENSO, through the Gill‐type response, an anomalous high (low)‐pressure appears in the lower and middle troposphere over Philippine‐South China Sea. The Walker circulation is also weaker (stronger) than normal. These are conducive to anomalous southerly (northerly) winds in Indochina. As a result, in the warm ENSO plus positive AO winters, the mean precipitation anomaly in Indo‐Myanmar increased by 27% as averaged for five data sets. In contrast, when the cold ENSO co‐occurs with negative AO, the precipitation is significantly reduced where the largest anomaly exceeds 100 mm in the ERA5. The precipitation changes are consistent with the local NPP anomalies, whereas the temperature does not seem to be a dominant limiting factor.

Dry and Wet Spells in Poland in the Period 1966–2023

The aim of this study is to present the spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of dry and wet days and dry and wet spells against the background of changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. The study is based on daily precipitation totals from 46 meteorological stations in Poland from 1966 to 2023. Additionally, seven circulation indices were used, namely GBI, NAO, AO, EA, EA/WR, SCAND, and AMO. Dry days are defined as days without precipitation. Wet days are days with at least 1 mm of precipitation. It was shown that dry spells are much more common than wet spells, are longer, and cover larger areas. Long-term changes in the annual characteristics of dry and wet days and spells are not statistically significant. Only the length of the most extended dry spell in the year increases. However, there are significant changes in their annual cycles. Spring is drier; in summer, precipitation decreases in the south and increases in the north; November and December, symbols of gloomy rainy weather, are increasingly drier; and rainy weather has shifted to January and February. The impact of circulation varies according to the season, with the NAO, AO, SCAND, and GBI indices having the greatest influence.

Explorando la influencia de oscilaciones climáticas en acuíferos: Revisión de estudios observacionales

Groundwater is critical for society’s adaptation to climate variability and change but simultaneously, is threatened by them. This paper reviews the linkages between climate oscillations and groundwater, focusing on studies reported in the Scopus database that use wavelet analysis. A total of 27 records published since 2009, covering North America, Europe, and Asia, have been analysed. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) show important effects on groundwater levels in North America. In Europe, NAO is the most dominant, while in Asia, distinct climate indices impact groundwater levels at different periodicities. The hydrogeological features of the aquifers condition the magnitude of the response of groundwater to the climate signal and there is conflicting evidence concerning the effects of land-use change and human activities on detecting climate signals in aquifers. Further research must focus on understanding the effect of human activities in the climate signal perception in aquifers, unravelling the physical mechanisms underlying the propagation of climate signals through aquifers, developing predictive models to support water management decisions, and finding alternative methods to assess this influence in regions with limited observational data. The interaction between the atmosphere and groundwater is of critical relevance for the achievement of water security and this review contributes to synthesizing our current understanding of this relationship.

Interdecadal shift of the North Pacific Oscillation and its nonstationary relationship with East Asian climate

A pronounced shift of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), including its teleconnection with the East Asian winter monsoon, has been observed in recent decades, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, we found that interannual variation of the NPO and its relationship with the dominant modes of winter mean and extreme temperatures over East Asia (EA) experienced a significant interdecadal shift in the mid-1980s. Before the shift (during 1950–1985), the NPO emerged and was maintained as a strong regional north-south dipole, manifesting a remarkable tropical-extratropical teleconnection. It significantly modulated the second mode of air temperature over EA (depicted by a north-south dipole) and extreme temperature events over southern EA, mainly through horizontal advection and adiabatic heating induced by the anomalous circulation in the southern lobe of the NPO. After the shift (during 1986–2021), the NPO was characterized by an intensified northern lobe and a weakened and northwestward shifted southern lobe, and by a close teleconnection with the Rossby wave trains at the mid-higher latitudes. In the meantime, tropical-extratropical teleconnections became apparently weak. Correspondingly, the NPO was mainly linked to the interannual variation of air temperature and extreme events over northern EA via horizontal advection. Importantly, the decadal shift of the relationships of the NPO with the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation played an apparent role in modulating EA climate.

Influence of Spring Warming in the Arctic-East Asia Region on the Arctic Oscillation and Dust Days in Korea Attributed to Dust Storms

Influence of Spring Warming in the Arctic-East Asia Region on the Arctic Oscillation and Dust Days in Korea Attributed to Dust Storms

Polar Vortex Disruptions by High Latitude Ocean Warming

AbstractMid‐latitude extreme cold outbreaks are associated with disruptions of the polar vortex, which often happen abruptly in connection to a sudden stratospheric warming. Understanding global warming (particularly Arctic amplification) impacts on forecasting such events is challenging for the scientific community. Here we apply clustering analysis on the Northern Annular Mode to identify surface precursors and the governing mechanisms causing polar vortex disruption events. Two clusters of vortex breakdown emerge; 65% of the events, mainly displacements, are associated with high‐latitude Ocean warming in the North Pacific and in Barents‐Kara Sea. Such warming may cause large scale modifications of the tropospheric flow that favors a slowdown of the stratospheric vortex. The persistence of Ocean surface temperature patterns favors polar vortex disruptions, potentially improving prediction skills at the sub‐seasonal to seasonal time scales.

A study on wave climate variability along the nearshore regions of Bohai Sea based on long term observation data

The Bohai Sea off the coast of northern China plays important economic and ecological roles. No studies have been conducted on wave characteristics in the Bohai Sea nearshore area using ocean station data in the past. Observational data (1998–2022) from eight ocean-stations in the Bohai Sea were used in the present study. Overall, wave height (Hs) was small; winter seasons had higher Hs than summer seasons, and the maximum Hs occurred in the Bohai Strait. Joint distribution analysis indicated that waves with Hs ranging from 0.2 to 0.4 m, and mean wave periods (Tm) ranging from 3 to 3.5 s, were most common. Hs in the Bohai Sea nearshore area showed a weak response to climate variability and was moderately correlated with the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) and the North Pacific Index (NPI) in winter, and with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in summer. Under extreme conditions, Hs was best described by a Generalized Pareto distribution, Tm was best described by a GEV distribution, and wave directions mainly followed a t location-scale distribution. The maximum wave height (Hmax)/Hs was 1.51, and the ratio varied with location. Machine learning methods were used to calculate Hmax more precisely, and they yielded better results than statistical methods.

A multivariate probabilistic framework for tracking the regional tropical edges: analysis of inter-annual variations and long-term trends

In the present study, a multivariate probabilistic framework is used to identify the meridional positions of regional tropical edges (RTEs), which are based on two variables: sea level pressure and precipitation minus evaporation. This new defined metric effectively captures inter-annual variability and long-term trend of the commonly adopted zonal mean tropical edge based on meridional mass stream function and near-surface winds. Besides, pronounced RTE trends are primarily located over the oceanic regions, and the terrestrial areas exhibit substantial inter-annual variability. These results are consistent among three modern reanalysis datasets. Moreover, the impacts of climate modes on RTE are investigated. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode are important both on the inter-annual variations and long-term trends of RTE. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is more inclined to affect long-term contribution rather than inter-annual relationship, and the Pacific–North American teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation highlight the inter-annual relationship with RTE in the specific regions, such as North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Africa, respectively.

Influence of autumn Kara Sea ice on the subsequent winter minimum temperature over the Northeast China

AbstractMany previous studies have examined the influence of Arctic sea ice on the weather/climate of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the precursor signals of Arctic sea ice regarding East Asian winter low temperatures, which are important for climate prediction, have received little attention. This study identified an out‐of‐phase relationship between the autumn sea ice area of the Kara Sea (SICK) and subsequent winter minimum temperature in Northeast China (NEC) during 1979–2019, that is, diminished SICK facilitates cooling anomalies at NEC. Further results showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) acts as a bridge in the linkage between the autumn SICK and minimum temperature in NEC. Diminished autumn SICK leads to a weakened polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere in the subsequent winter through vertical propagation of planetary waves, contributing to a negative phase of the AO. Accordingly, the SICK is followed by anomalous Rossby wave train that originates from Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia. Thus, the SICK has substantially influences on the Mongolia cyclone and minimum temperature in NEC by modulation of the AO. Moreover, the shrinking SICK could lead to the upper‐level decelerated westerly anomalies at East Asia through altering the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and induce negative minimum temperature anomalies at NEC. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of low temperature anomalies over NEC.

Variability Assessment of Global Extreme Coastal Sea Levels Using Altimetry Data

This study assesses the variability of coastal extreme sea levels globally by utilizing nearly three decades of along-track, multi-mission satellite altimetry data. An altimetry-based global coastal database of the non-tidal residual sea level component has been produced. The climate variability of extremes is modeled through a parametric, non-stationary statistical model. This model captures intra-annual, inter-annual and long-term variations in non-tidal residual return levels. Comparisons with tide gauge data demonstrate the ability of altimetry data to capture the variability of coastal extreme sea levels. Our findings reveal a greater complexity in the monthly variability patterns of non-tidal residual extremes in tropical latitudes, often exhibiting multiple storm periods, contrasting with coasts in extratropical latitudes, which are mostly controlled by a winter–summer pattern. This study also highlights the significant influence of established climate circulation patterns on sea level extremes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation pattern leads to increases of over 25% in non-tidal residual return levels in Northwestern Europe with respect to a neutral phase. Furthermore, return levels in the western coast of Central America could be 50% higher during El Niño compared to La Niña. Our results show a robust increasing trend in non-tidal residual return levels along most global coastlines. A comparative analysis shows that variations during the 1995–2020 period were primarily driven by intra-annual variations.

The increases in extreme climatic events over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and their association with atmospheric circulation changes

In the context of global warming, increasing frequency of climate extremes poses a great challenge to natural systems and humankind. However, the spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as the mechanisms of extreme climate change, remain insufficiently understood, particularly in arid and semi-arid mountainous regions with high climate sensitivity and ecological fragility. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of 27 extreme climate indices (including intensity, duration, and frequency) in the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, from 1961 to 2016 using the CN05.1 meteorological grid dataset, explored the relationship between the extreme climate indices and internal variability of the climate system (e.g., the North Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)), and further probed into the mechanisms affecting climate extremes using ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The results showed that extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains were significantly enhanced in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration during 1961–2016. The decrease rates of frost days (FD0) and ice days (ID0) were − 4.4 d per decade and − 4.7 d per decade, respectively, and the increase rate of growing season length (GSL) was 2.9 d per decade. Extreme precipitation intensity increased significantly, with the intensity indices R95P and PRCPTOT showing the most significant change trends of 4 mm per decade and 14.9 mm per decade, respectively (p < 0.05). The number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed a significant downward trend, with a rate of −6 d per decade, the number of moderate precipitation days (R10) showed an increasing trend of 0.12 d per decade. Correlation analyses revealed significant associations between the increases in extreme climates and the AMO and PDO. Additionally, the enhancement of the AO contributed to the increased extreme precipitation. Enhanced anticyclonic circulation in Eurasia and geopotential height, as well as increased cloud cover in winter, were the main reasons for the increase in extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains, whereas the significant increase in water vapor transport entering the east boundary of the Qilian Mountains in summer mainly contributed to the increase in extreme precipitation. This study highlights internal oscillations in the climate system that regulate the extreme climate variability in the Qilian Mountains at various spatial-temporal scales.

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Tropical- and Non-Tropical-Cyclone-Induced Rainfall over Southeast China and the Teleconnections to Climatic Indices

Abstract The spatiotemporal variations of annual tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (TCR) and non-tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (NTCR) during 1960–2017 in Southeast China are investigated in this study. The teleconnections to sea surface temperature, the Arctic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean dipole are examined. A significant decrease in annual TCR in the Pearl River basin was detected, while an increase in annual TCR in rainstorms was observed in the northeast of the Pearl River basin and south of the Yangtze River basin. A northward migration of a TCR belt was identified, which was also indicated by the pronounced anomalies of annual TCR. There was in general an increasing trend of non-tropical-cyclone-induced moderate rain, heavy rain, and rainstorms in Southeast China. Compared with the non-tropical-cyclone-induced heavy rain, the abnormal non-tropical-cyclone-induced rainstorms are more northerly. Both monthly TCR and NTCR were remarkably affected by the Arctic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, and Indian Ocean dipole. TCR was more easily affected by the Arctic Oscillation compared to NTCR. Significance Statement Tropical-cyclone- and non-tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (TCR and NTCR) prevails in Southeast China, and their characteristics of spatiotemporal variability are of significance in predicting rainfall over the study area. Therefore, this study aims to detect the degree to which rainfall varies in time and space, respectively, using the Mann–Kendall test and the empirical orthogonal function method. Moreover, to explore which climatic factor contributes the most to the spatiotemporal variability of TCR and NTCR, the teleconnections to the large-scale climatic indices including sea surface temperature, the Arctic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean dipole are studied. The spatiotemporal variations of TCR and NTCR were affected by the sea surface temperature and the other three large-scale climatic indices. The findings in this study are expected to deepen the understanding of spatiotemporal variations of TCR and NTCR over Southeast China and the teleconnections to climatic indices.

Influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on tropical convection and its teleconnection to the midlatitudes in boreal winter

AbstractRecently, a connection between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was found in observations. The boreal winter seasonal mean amplitude of the daily MJO is anticorrelated with the QBO winds measured at 50 hPa. We investigate whether this relationship is captured in reforecasts of past winters in a seasonal prediction system, and find the ensemble mean response does not show this association, with essentially zero correlation. By repeated subsampling of the ensemble reforecast data, we also show that the observed correlation is very unlikely to arise merely as the result of sampling in the relatively short observational record. Instead, we conclude that the reforecasts genuinely cannot capture the observed QBO–MJO seasonal relationship. We also consider the boreal winter seasonal mean response of tropical convection to the QBO and its influence on the subtropics. We find that the reforecasts are able to capture the stationary pattern found in the observed outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) over the tropical west Pacific in response to the QBO. We also find that the associated upper tropospheric divergence in observations interacts with the west Pacific subtropical jet to produce atmospheric Rossby wave patterns that propagate across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These extratropical waves have the potential to interfere with the climatological waves in midlatitudes, modifying the strength of the midlatitude annular mode through interactions with the extratropical stratosphere. However, the observed influence on wavenumber 1 is not captured by the reforecasts, suggesting a weak extratropical influence and a partial explanation for the weaker‐than‐observed QBO teleconnection to the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation.

Analysing the Effects of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Streamflow Regime in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Analysing the variations in hydrological cycle components is essential for water resources planning and management. In this study, the relationship between the streamflow data belonging to five discharge gauging stations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) was investigated. For this purpose, Spearman’s correlation test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and relative importance analysis were used. Accordingly, Spearman’s correlation coefficients were calculated between raw streamflow data, decomposed streamflow data via EEMD and atmospheric teleconnections. Then, the relative importance analysis was applied to determine the atmospheric teleconnections’ influences on streamflow data. The findings showed that the relationship between raw streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections is generally more significant and negative in the winter and spring. Furthermore, it was observed that the linkage between the decomposed streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections could differentiate. Although no significant correlation between atmospheric teleconnections and raw streamflow data was detected in some months, significant correlations were detected between atmospheric teleconnections and decomposed streamflow data. This reveals the importance of examining the relationship between atmospheric teleconnections and streamflow data for different periods. The relative importance analysis revealed that the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data could change from station to station and from component to component. This study showed that investigating the effects of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data for different components and periods is important.

Interannual-decadal variations in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in summer during 1958–2016 using an eddy-resolving hindcast simulation based on OFES2

In the Yellow Sea, a large volume of cold water with temperature below 10 °C exists in the bottom layer in summer and affects the regional circulation, climate and marine ecosystem. Here, we investigated in detail the interannual-decadal variations in the summer Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) using six decades (1958–2016) of a quasi-global eddy-resolving hindcast simulation, which was validated with observations. Results indicated that volume and mean temperature of the YSCWM were 0.52 × 1012–4.10 × 1012 m3 (2.22 × 1012 m3 on average) and 8.53–9.32 °C (8.94 °C on average). The YSCWM was dominated by interannual-decadal variations with a weakly warming and shrinking trend. The YSCWM volume (mean temperature) had larger (smaller) average values and varied more significantly during the two periods of 1958–1988 and 2005–2016 than during 1989–2004. Interannual-decadal variations in the summer YSCWM agreed with those in February temperature in the Yellow Sea, which were primarily caused by net surface heat flux variations, with a minor but negative contribution from heat exchange with the East China Sea through the northward Yellow Sea warm current and southward coastal currents. Winter net surface heat flux variations were dominated by latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, both of which resulted from combined effects of the Siberia High, Western Pacific pattern and Arctic Oscillation through controlling sea surface wind speed and air temperature over the Yellow Sea. The current study provided a more complete picture and in-depth understanding of changes in the summer YSCWM responding to large-scale climate change and variabilities during the past six decades.

Dual carbon and oxygen isotopes in Siberian tree rings as indicator of millennia sunshine duration changes

The current lack of information on past summer sunshine duration variability from annually resolved palaeoclimatological archives is hindering progress in the understanding and modelling of the earth climate system. We show that a combination of tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotopes from Siberia provides robust information on summer sunshine duration, which we use for an annual 1505-year reconstruction of July sunshine duration variability (1,5K-SIB-JSDR). We found that the Medieval maximum is 56 % higher than the average over 1505 years. Rapid and drastic decreases in sunshine duration up to 60 % correspond to major stratospheric volcanic eruptions. Grand Solar Minima and total sunspot numbers are also well preserved in the 1,5K-SIB-JSDR. Coherency with a global air temperature composite and spring Arctic Oscillation indicate that a large-scale climate signal is retained in our sunshine reconstruction.

Connections between low- and high- frequency variabilities of stratospheric northern annular mode and Arctic ozone depletion

Previous studies have demonstrated a dynamical linkage between the ozone and stratospheric polar vortex strength, but only a few have mentioned the persistence of the anomalous vortex. This study uses the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to decompose the winter stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) variabilities into relatively low frequencies (>4 months) and high frequencies (<2 months) (denoted as NAML and NAMH) and investigates their relationship with the Arctic ozone concentration in March. A closer relationship is found between the Arctic ozone and the NAML, i.e. a persistently strong stratospheric polar vortex in winter (especially February–March) is more critical than a short-lasting extremely strong vortex in contributing to Arctic ozone depletion. We find that a negative NAMH or major stratospheric sudden warming event in early winter could be a precursor for the anomalous depletion of Arctic ozone in March. The NAML changes are further related to the warm North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and ‘central-type’ El Niño-like or La Niña-like SST anomalies in early winter months, as well as cold North Atlantic SST anomalies and higher sea ice concentration in the Barents–Kara Sea from late-autumn to early-spring.

The linkage between wintertime sea ice drift and atmospheric circulation in an Arctic ice-ocean coupled simulation

By analyzing an Arctic ice-ocean coupled simulation, we study the linkage between wintertime sea ice drift and atmospheric circulation, and interpret the driving force terms in the sea ice dynamic equation. Sea ice drift anomaly is featured by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) gyre when regulated by negative (positive) phase of Arctic Oscillation with positive (negative) phase of Arctic Dipole, and a quasi-meridional stream from Chukchi-Beaufort (Barents-Kara) Seas to Barents-Kara (Chukchi-Beaufort) Seas when regulated by positive (negative) phase of Arctic Oscillation with positive (negative) phase of Arctic Dipole. Sea ice drift anomaly, when regulated by the mode alone, resembles spatial pattern of leading atmospheric mode. Decomposing sea ice dynamical equation shows that wind-ice stress dominates sea ice drift in areas away from islands and continental coastlines, ocean-ice stress acts as a resistant power to partly cancel the wind-ice stress in these areas, while in the coastal areas such as the thick multiyear ice zone north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the wind-ice and ocean-ice stresses are small, the balance exists between sea surface height potential gradient and internal ice stress divergence. Developing more sophisticated internal ice stress expression in ice model is of great important to correctly project future sea ice change for the ice modeling community.

Variation in Water Deficit and Its Association with Climate Indices in Weihe River Basin, China

Based on the 24 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) from 1951 to 2013, as well as the runoff data from the mainstream of the Weihe River, the temporal and spatial variations in water balance in the WRB and its relationships with runoff, the drought index, and the climate index were analyzed. The results indicate that the water balance in the WRB has been in a deficit state over the past 63 years, showing a weak declining trend with a decreasing rate of −20.04 mm/decade. Water balance is closely related to potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (P). At the annual time scale, P plays a dominant role in water balance for 6–8 months in the WRB. The distribution of the water deficit (WD) in the WRB is uneven throughout the year, with the largest deficit occurring in June and the smallest values generally occurring in September. Furthermore, there are significant multi-scale correlations between water deficit and climate indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the WRB. In addition, water deficit is also influenced by human activities, such as irrigation, as well as climate factors and socio-economic factors. Studying the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of water deficit and its influencing factors in the WRB is helpful toward deeply understanding the supply and demand dynamics of water resources in the basin and providing a theoretical basis and scientific guidance for the rational utilization of water resources and the high-quality development of the basin.