A multivariate probabilistic framework for tracking the regional tropical edges: analysis of inter-annual variations and long-term trends

Abstract

In the present study, a multivariate probabilistic framework is used to identify the meridional positions of regional tropical edges (RTEs), which are based on two variables: sea level pressure and precipitation minus evaporation. This new defined metric effectively captures inter-annual variability and long-term trend of the commonly adopted zonal mean tropical edge based on meridional mass stream function and near-surface winds. Besides, pronounced RTE trends are primarily located over the oceanic regions, and the terrestrial areas exhibit substantial inter-annual variability. These results are consistent among three modern reanalysis datasets. Moreover, the impacts of climate modes on RTE are investigated. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode are important both on the inter-annual variations and long-term trends of RTE. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is more inclined to affect long-term contribution rather than inter-annual relationship, and the Pacific–North American teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation highlight the inter-annual relationship with RTE in the specific regions, such as North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Africa, respectively.