Spatiotemporal changes and drivers of ecological security based on an improved ecological footprint model: the case of Hubei Province, China

Abstract

The increasing contradiction between resource supply and demand has brought ecological security (ES) to the forefront. Research on the changes of ES pattern and their driving factors is crucial for coordinating the regional ecological and economic development. Hubei Province in China exhibits uneven distribution of resources and a fragile ecological environment. In this study, an improved ecological footprint (EF) model was employed to analyze the changes in the ES pattern of Hubei Province. And the logarithmic mean Divisia index model was introduced to analyze the corresponding driving factors. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the EF per capita (ef), the ecological carrying capacity per capita (ecc), and the ecological deficit (ED) per capita (ed) of Hubei Province increased by 47.11%, 2.71%, and 51.72%, respectively. In 2020, the cities in the province were in a state of ED, and the spatial distribution was ‘high in the central part of the province and low in the east and west’. (2) Each ef type showed an increasing trend. The increase in ef mostly came from the increase in fisheries ef, fossil energy ef and cropland ef, with a contribution of 76.70%. The increase in ecc is mainly due to the increase in freshwater ecc, with a contribution of 274.87%. (3) The ecological pressure in the province continued to rise and has been in a state of being completely unsafe. The efficiency of ecological resource use has increased, and the ecological structure tends to be rationalized, but the ecological-economic coordination has weakened. (4) The overall EF growth in the province is mostly driven by economic, population and footprint structure factors, while footprint intensity suppresses EF growth. Therefore, it is advised to boost investment in eco-friendly tech, foster green economy growth, and prioritize renewable energy development. This study can provide a reference basis for policy formulation on environmental sustainability and ecosystem management.