Northeastern Baltic Sea Research Articles

Seasonal dynamics and regional distribution patterns of CO2 and CH4 in the north-eastern Baltic Sea

Abstract. Significant research has been carried out in the last decade to describe the CO2 system dynamics in the Baltic Sea. However, there is a lack of knowledge in this field in the NE Baltic Sea, which is the main focus of the present study. We analysed the physical forcing and hydrographic background in the study year (2018) and tried to elucidate the observed patterns of surface water CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and methane concentrations (cCH4). Surface water pCO2 and cCH4 were continuously measured during six monitoring cruises onboard R/V Salme, covering the Northern Baltic Proper (NBP), the Gulf of Finland (GoF), and the Gulf of Riga (GoR) and all seasons in 2018. The general seasonal pCO2 pattern showed oversaturation in autumn–winter (average relative CO2 saturation 1.2) and undersaturation in spring–summer (average relative CO2 saturation 0.5), but it locally reached the saturation level during the cruises in April, May, and August in the GoR and in August in the GoF. The cCH4 was oversaturated during the entire study period, and the seasonal course was not well exposed on the background of high variability. Surface water pCO2 and cCH4 distributions showed larger spatial variability in the GoR and GoF than in the NBP for all six cruises. We linked the observed local maxima to river bulges, coastal upwelling events, fronts, and occasions when vertical mixing reached the seabed in shallow areas. Seasonal averaging over the CO2 flux suggests a weak sink for atmospheric CO2 for all basins, but high variability and the long periods between cruises (temporal gaps in observation) preclude a clear statement.

Storminess reconstruction in the northeastern Baltic Sea region over the past 7600 years based on aeolian sand influx into coastal bogs

This study aims to reconstruct the changes in storminess during the past 7600 years in the northeastern Baltic Sea region. For storminess reconstructions, aeolian sand influx (ASI) in coastal peat bog deposits was applied as an indicator of the past storminess. We analyzed cores from four peat bogs in the western and northern coastal areas of Estonia: the cores from Hiiumaa N, Hiiumaa SW, Saaremaa and Juminda study sites covered the past 3700, 3750, 2400, and 8400 years, respectively. The sediment chronologies were established using 36 14C dates. Image-analysis method ( ImageJ) was used to count and measure the grain size of all sand particles at every centimeter to gain high-resolution ASI records. Although minor site-to-site variations exist, all four ASI records were in general consistent, suggesting that stormier periods occurred around 7300, 6600, 5900, 4600, 3600, 2900, 2400, 2100, and 1600 cal yr BP and over the last 1200 years. The results and comparisons with other storminess and climate studies indicate a shift in climatic conditions around 2500 cal yr BP when stormy periods became more frequent. The ASI values were also high during the last millennium, suggesting either higher storminess or more suitable transport mechanisms for sand into the coastal bogs: the niveo-aeolian transport mode could have been favored in winters, especially during the Little Ice Age, and human impact on landscapes has probably increased over the past centuries.

Integrating cultural and natural assets in marine spatial planning: A new approach for joint management of cultural and natural assets

Effective sustainable marine management requires the integration of cultural and natural assets, a practice that is rarely attempted. This study developed and tested a new method for Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) that uses interdisciplinary knowledge of the spatial distribution of cultural and natural assets in marine ecosystems along environmental and human pressure gradients and seeks to understand their interrelationships. The study focused on Estonian marine areas in the north-eastern Baltic Sea. Environmental conditions and threats were assessed, and the extent of spatial overlap between underwater cultural heritage (UCH), natural assets and conservation measures was identified. Although nature reserves and UCH sites were generally exposed to different ranges of environmental and pressure gradients, significant overlap with UCH sites was observed for certain natural assets, as well as along gradients of current velocity, oxygen concentration, bottom sediment, and human pressure. These results highlight the value of joint archaeological and ecological analyses to identify natural assets specific to UCH regions that require protection from both a natural and cultural heritage perspective.

Environmental impact of water exchange blocking in a strait – a multidisciplinary study in the Baltic Sea

In this study, we report the environmental impact of water exchange blocking by a 3 km road dam built in 1896 in the shallow Väike Strait, north-eastern Baltic Sea. Using a multidisciplinary measurement campaign and numerical simulations, we show ecological conditions in the strait have considerably altered; the previously free-flowing strait now comprises two bays with separate circulation systems. Water exchange in the area close to the dam has decreased 10–12-fold. Since advection is weakened, exchange with the atmosphere and sediments has a relatively greater role in shaping water characteristics. Consequently, occasional very high sea surface temperature, salinity, and total nitrogen, and strong diurnal cycles in water temperature (>4°C) and dissolved oxygen (>4 mg l−1) were observed near the dam in summer. Oxygen levels are continuously below saturation in winter and concentration occasionally drops to hypoxic levels with ice cover. Nitrogen content in sediments near the dam is 3–4 times higher than in neighboring areas. The dam also modifies sea level, wind wave and suspended matter patterns in the strait. Sediments near the dam show elevated content of hazardous substances likely associated with traffic on the dam road. The phytobenthos community near the dam is dominated by annual green algae, which massively decompose during winter. The dam likely impedes fish migration between suitable feeding and spawning areas, also there have been fish kills caused by rapid fluctuations in sea levels, amplified by dam. The construction of new openings would alleviate negative impacts of the dam.

Effects of an Invasive Mud Crab on a Macroalgae-Dominated Habitat of the Baltic Sea under Different Temperature Regimes

The risks imposed by biological invasions on marine ecosystems are increasing worldwide. The mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii has recently expanded its distribution to the northeastern Baltic Sea, where low predatory pressures and the absence of functionally similar competitors favored the establishment of the species. Few studies have addressed the effects of the mud crab on Baltic benthic communities and habitats. Even fewer have looked at the consequences of the invader on habitats dominated by Fucus vesiculosus, the main habitat-forming macrophyte in the Baltic Sea. The present study experimentally analyzed, under laboratory conditions, the effects of R. harrisii on Baltic F. vesiculosus habitats and associated communities under different temperatures simulating summer and winter regimes. Our results show that the effects of the mud crab are modulated by temperature, being more pronounced under summer conditions when the metabolic demands and food intake requirements are higher. The experiment provided new insights into the capacity of R. harrisii to disrupt recruitment in native snail populations, jeopardizing the persistence of healthy populations of key grazers in F. vesiculosus habitats. Moreover, our results conclusively demonstrated the capacity of the invader to decimate native blue mussel populations. The impacts on functionally relevant invertebrates can have far-reaching ecological consequences, altering the food web and disrupting entire coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea.

Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium-emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 % to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from −28 (−54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.

Direct and Carry-Over Effects of Temperature Drive Height Increment of Scots Pine in the North-Eastern Baltic Sea Region

In the eastern Baltic region, the abundance of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been predicted to shift due to changes in height growth and competitiveness. Under such conditions, the relationships between tree growth and meteorological/climatic conditions can provide valuable information on the ecological plasticity and adaptability of local populations. Regarding the climatic dependence of productivity and competitiveness, height increment is an informative proxy, although data gathering is laborious. In this study, meteorological sensitivity of the height increment of Scots pine across the climatic gradient of north-eastern Baltic region was assessed by the means of timeseries deconstruction and generalized additive regression. Previously published time series from sites in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland were reanalysed. The local linear weather–growth relationships showed gradual changes in sensitivity to low summer temperature to conditions related to water availability in summer in Finland and the Baltics, respectively. The regional generalization of responses indicated the prevalence of temporary and spatially stationary effects of temperature in winter and summer, which had a complex influence (direct and carry-over effects). The prevailing linearity of the regional responses suggested that, regarding height growth, the studied populations appeared adapted to a wider climatic gradient than the studied one.

Impact of the Construction of New Port Facilities on the Biomass and Species Composition of Phytoplankton in the Neva Estuary (Baltic Sea)

The construction of new port facilities and the creation of new lands is a natural consequence of the rapid growth in the population of ocean coastlines. Despite the fact that such human activity is becoming more and more widespread, its impact on various components of aquatic ecosystems, including phytoplankton, is still poorly understood. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of the large-scale construction of new port facilities on biomass and taxonomic composition of phytoplankton in the Neva Estuary (northeastern Baltic Sea). Studies have shown that digging and displacing large amounts of bottom sediments during these works led to a significant increase in suspended mineral matter and a decrease in water transparency in the estuary. This significantly reduced the species richness and biomass of phytoplankton. However, the analysis of beta diversity did not show significant changes in the phytoplankton community during the periods of port construction and the periods when no works were carried out. The changes mainly concerned rare species, while the occurrence and biomass of dominant and subdominant species changed to a lesser extent. Due to various adaptations, the phytoplankton species common in the estuary are apparently able to survive under prolonged shading and successfully compete with species that are unable to withstand the lack of light for a long time. To correctly take into account the effects of the construction of new port facilities on phytoplankton and, if possible, minimize it, additional studies of the ecology of certain phytoplankton species, their relationships, and physiological responses to various environmental factors are required.

Assessing cumulative impacts of human-induced pressures on reef and sandbank habitats and associated biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea.

Marine ecosystems are impacted by multiple individual and combined anthropogenic pressures. We used meta-analysis and data-driven PlanWise4Blue decision support tool to predict individual and combined impacts of wind park development, nutrient loading, and invasive species on vulnerable reef and sandbank habitats and associated species-specific biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea. Many impacts were not statistically significant due to large between-study variance in effect sizes. Wind park development is predicted to have less impact than nutrient loading and invasive species. Predicted impacts varied greatly among larger-scale habitats versus smaller-scale biotopes with impacts being generally stronger at small scale. Excessive nutrient loading damages algae-based biotopes, the presence of nonnative species has substantial negative impacts on larger-scale reef and sandbank habitats. The results showed that a 25 % reduction of nutrient loading improves all examined benthic habitats, whereas nonnative species, which cannot be removed from ecosystems, pose a significant threat to these habitats.

Sandy beach evolution in the low-energy microtidal Baltic Sea: Attribution of changes to hydrometeorological forcing

We analyse the response of small embayed sandy beaches in marginal seas to various hydrometeorological drivers to isolate a specific mechanism that may stabilise beaches under bi-directional wind patterns. The focus is on the evolution of two sandy beaches (Pirita and Russalka) in Tallinn Bay, northeastern Baltic Sea, that are about 3 km apart and oriented at an angle of 35° with respect to each other. A large proportion of annual wave energy flux is packed into a very few days in the year. The wind direction, and thereby the direction of the wave fields, of the strongest storms in the year determines which coastal areas are most affected. We quantify the response of the beaches to hydrometeorological conditions over 12 years, 2008–2020 based on annual high-resolution measurements using airborne and terrestrial laser scanning technology. The fastest sediment removal from the subaerial beach occurs during time periods with elevated water level and strong wave energy flux. Even though annual variations in the sand volume of the subaerial beach are significant, both beaches are stable during the decade studied but respond differently. We outline specific mechanisms that maintain the beaches, best illustrated at Pirita beach where there is strong longshore sediment transport component driven by waves that often arrive the beach at a large angle. Sand that is removed from the higher subaerial segments of the northern part of Pirita beach and moved to the south by north-west storms during periods of elevated water levels, is deposited in the shallow nearshore (above about −0.5 m of the mean sea level). This sediment is then able to be transported back to the north during periods of lower water levels where even relatively small waves generated by moderate south-westerly winds can entrain and move the sediment. This mechanism, different from the classic cut and fill cycle, may implicitly stabilise beaches where there is a bi-directional wind regime and a small tidal range. Another, less explicit cross-shore mechanism, is found for the differently oriented Russalka beach where waves usually approach at a small angle with respect to the shore normal. This beach is maintained by a synchronisation of intense waves and water level that limits the depth of deposited sand with respect to mean sea level. The two mechanisms are thus fairly similar, however Pirita beach has extensive alongshore excursions of sand.

Deriving Nutrient Concentrations from Sentinel-3 OLCI Data in North-Eastern Baltic Sea

Nutrients are important elements in marine ecosystems and water quality, and have a major role in the eutrophication of water bodies. Monitoring nutrient loads is especially important for the Baltic Sea, which is especially sensitive to the eutrophication. Using optical remote sensing data in mapping total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) is challenging because these substances do not have a direct influence on the water optics that remote sensing sensors can detect. On the other hand, it would be very rewarding. In this study, more than 25,000 Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) data algorithms were tested in order to detect the TN and TP concentrations in the Estonian marine waters between 2016–2021. The TN estimations were well derived for Estonian marine waters (R2 = 0.73, RMSE = 4.87 µmolN L−1, MAPE = 14%, n = 708), while the TP estimations were weaker (R2 = 0.38, RMSE = 0.23 µmolP L−1, MAPE = 24%, n = 730). The Estonian marine waters were divided into six geographic regions in order to study the effect of regional water quality on the TN and TP retrievals. The nutrient concentrations were derived in every region when spring and summer periods were treated separately. In this study, the detection of both nutrients was more successful in more closed areas with P deficiency, while in open sea areas it was more challenging. This study shows that it is possible to estimate nutrients, especially TN, from remote sensing data. Consequently, remote sensing could provide a reliable support to the conventional monitoring by covering large marine areas with high temporal and spatial resolution data.

Examining fish movement in terms of advection or diffusion: a case study of northeastern Atlantic cod

Advection (directional movement) and diffusion (dispersed movement) were applied for the first time to describe movement patterns in Atlantic cod in the North Sea and Baltic Sea between 1955 and 2020. The advection-diffusion approach provided more detailed estimates of movement that corresponded to previously observed patterns using different analytical techniques. Spatial patterns were evident with greater movement distances in cod from the North Sea and eastern Baltic Sea compared to the western Baltic and Kattegat-Skagerrak. Furthermore, comparative case studies on different ecotypes in the western and eastern Baltic suggested that inshore cod were more resident compared to offshore cod. This preliminary study highlights the usefulness of the advection-diffusion method to describe movements in fish populations, and can be further expanded by incorporating information on environment and mortality and providing information to spatially explicit population models.

Relationships Between Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and Phytoplankton Productivity in the Neva Estuary (Northeastern Baltic Sea)

Teleconnection patterns can be an important tool for investigating the impact of climate change on biological communities. The aim of the study was, using 2003–2020 data on chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL) and plankton primary production (PP) in midsummer, to determine which of the teleconnection patterns have most pronounced effects on phytoplankton productivity in the estuary located on the border between western and eastern Europe. CHL correlated significantly with the winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOw) and Scandinavia (SCANDw) indices, as well as with the values of the annual Polar/Eurasian (POLy) and annual Arctic Oscillation (AOy) indices. PP was significantly correlated with the values of POLy. East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern showed no significant correlation with both phytoplankton indicators. Stepwise multiple linear regressions were performed to determine the most influential indices affecting CHL and PP in the Neva Estuary. POLy, SCANDw, and NAOw appeared to be the main predictors in CHL multiple regression model, while the values of POLy and the July NAO and SCAND values were the main predictors in the PP model. According to our research, the productivity of phytoplankton in the Neva Estuary, located in the most northeastern part of the Baltic Sea, showed a significant relationship with the POL, which determines weather conditions in the northeastern regions of Eurasia. Possible mechanisms of the influence of these teleconnection patterns on phytoplankton productivity are discussed. Using the obtained multi-regression equations and the values of climatic indices, we calculated the values of CHL and PP for 1951–2002 and compared them with the results of field observations. The calculated and measured values of CHL and PP showed a significant increase in phytoplankton productivity in the Neva Estuary in the second half of the 2010s compared to earlier periods. In some years of the 1950s, 1980s, and late 1990s, CHL could also be above average and the low phytoplankton productivity should have been observed in the 1960s–1970s. This indicates a significant contribution of current climate change to fluctuation in phytoplankton productivity observed in recent decades, which should be taken into account when developing measures to protect aquatic ecosystems from eutrophication.

Late Pleistocene iceberg scouring in the north-eastern Baltic Sea, west of Estonia

During the last glacial period, the western sea area of Estonia in the northern Baltic Sea was covered by the Fennoscandian continental ice sheet. High-resolution multibeam bathymetric images of the seafloor reveal widespread linear and curved depressions, interpreted as iceberg scours (ploughmarks) that were produced by ploughing and grounding icebergs during and soon after the final ice retreat from the area. Two main populations (A and B) of scours are identified, formed either on top of the acoustic substratum (bedrock or coarse-grained glacial deposits) or on top of the superimposed glaciolacustrine and post-glacial sediments that are exposed on the seafloor. Both populations have similar characteristics, being on average 780 m long, 54 m wide and 1.6 m deep. Most of the scours are linear, with an average NE-SW orientation for Population A, and an average ENE-WSW orientation for Population B. The scour patterns indicate a partially grounded ice sheet in the shallower parts of the study area. We suggest that the period of most intensive iceberg calving and scouring lasted for approximately 1100 years, from 13.2 to 12.3 kyr BP.

Data assimilation of sea surface temperature and salinity using basin-scale reconstruction from empirical orthogonal functions: a feasibility study in the northeastern Baltic Sea

Abstract. The tested data assimilation (DA) method based on EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) reconstruction of observations decreased centred root-mean-square difference (RMSD) of surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) in reference to observations in the NE Baltic Sea by 22 % and 34 %, respectively, compared to the control run without DA. The method is based on the covariance estimates from long-term model data. The amplitudes of the pre-calculated dominating EOF modes are estimated from point observations using least-squares optimization; the method builds the variables on a regular grid. The study used a large number of in situ FerryBox observations along four ship tracks from 1 May to 31 December 2015, and observations from research vessels. Within DA, observations were reconstructed as daily SST and SSS maps on the coarse grid with a resolution of 5 × 10 arcmin by N and E (ca. 5 nautical miles) and subsequently were interpolated to the fine grid of the prognostic model with a resolution of 0.5 × 1 arcmin by N and E (ca. 0.5 nautical miles). The fine-grid observational fields were used in the DA relaxation scheme with daily interval. DA with EOF reconstruction technique was found to be feasible for further implementation studies, since (1) the method that works on the large-scale patterns (mesoscale features are neglected by taking only the leading EOF modes) improves the high-resolution model performance by a comparable or even better degree than in the other published studies, and (2) the method is computationally effective.

The spread zones and contacts of medieval Finnic in the Northeastern Baltic Sea area: Implications for the rate of language change

AbstractIn the contemporary northern Baltic Sea area, there are two states, Finland and Estonia, in which a western Uralic language has an official status. Several Finnic minority languages are or used to be spoken in the adjacent areas in the contact zone of Baltic, Germanic and Slavic languages. Historically, the north-eastern surroundings of the Gulf of Finland reflect a gradual spread of the language area during the past millennium and especially the late Middle Ages, while more southern areas in contemporary Estonia, and its eastern neighbourhood in Russia show longer continuity of language borders. The Finnic languages were used predominantly orally until very recently, whereas written language began to affect non-standard varieties more strongly only in the 19th and 20th centuries. The diversification of the Finnic languages in the Northeastern Baltic Sea area involves both integration and disintegration of mutually closely related varieties. This article focuses on i) the variability of changes and their correlation with emerging divergence between Finnic languages, ii) local language contacts during the late Middle Ages and the Early Modern age, and iii) the rate of linguistic change. The external powers affecting the diversity between the Finnic languages include the settling of early Swedish, German and Slavic centres among or in the vicinity of Finnic communities, the policies of medieval Catholic and Orthodox church, the extension of the trading networks of the Hanseatic League, wars and conflicts between dominant political powers in the east and west, as well as the gradual establishment of political borders. I will suggest that all these factors have played a role in the rate of both lexical and grammatical change.

Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data

Abstract. The formation of convective sea-effect snowfall (i.e., snow bands) is triggered by cold air outbreaks over a relatively warm and open sea. Snow bands can produce intense snowfall which can last for several days over the sea and potentially move towards the coast depending on wind direction. We defined the meteorological conditions which statistically favor the formation of snow bands over the north-eastern Baltic Sea of the Finnish coastline and investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of these snow bands. A set of criteria, which have been previously shown to be able to detect the days favoring sea-effect snowfall for Swedish coastal area, were refined for Finland based on four case study simulations, utilizing a convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (HARMONIE-AROME). The main modification of the detection criteria concerned the threshold for 10 m wind speed: the generally assumed threshold value of 10 m s−1 was decreased to 7 m s−1. The refined criteria were then applied to regional climate model (RCA4) data, for an 11-year time period (2000–2010). When only considering cases in Finland with onshore wind direction, we found on average 3 d yr−1 with favorable conditions for coastal sea-effect snowfall. The heaviest convective snowfall events were detected most frequently over the southern coastline. Statistics of the favorable days indicated that the lower 10 m wind speed threshold improved the representation of the frequency of snow bands. For most of the favorable snow band days, the location and order of magnitude of precipitation were closely captured, when compared to gridded observational data for land areas and weather radar reflectivity images. Lightning were observed during one third of the favorable days over the Baltic Sea area.

Detecting Long Time Changes in Benthic Macroalgal Cover Using Landsat Image Archive

Coastal macroalgae worldwide provide multiple ecological functions and support vital ecosystem services. Thereby, it is important to monitor changes in the extent of benthic macroalgal cover. However, as in situ sampling is costly and time-consuming, areal estimates of macroalgal species cover are often based only on a limited number of samples. This low sampling effort likely yields very biased estimates, as macroalgal communities are often characterized by large spatial variability at multiple spatial scales. Moreover, ecological time series are often short-term, making it impossible to assess changes in algal communities over decades and relate this to different human pressures and/or climate change. The Landsat series satellites have operated for 40 years. In the current study, we tested if the Landsat sensors could be used for mapping the cover of shallow water benthic macroalgae. This study was carried out at two sites in the West Estonian Archipelago, in the northeastern Baltic Sea. Our results show that the Landsat imagery accurately reflected both spatial and temporal variability in benthic algal cover. To conclude, the current methodology can be used to improve the existing assessments of areal macroalgal cover, or to estimate the cover values, in areas and times lacking ecological observations.

Littoral Benthic Communities Under Effect of Heat Wave and Upwelling Events in the Ne Baltic Sea

Paalme, T.; Torn, K.; Martin, G.; Kotta, I., and Suursaar, Ü., 2020. Littoral benthic communities under effect of heat wave and upwelling events in NE Baltic Sea. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 133–137. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The Baltic Sea forms a dynamic marine habitat with strong latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in many essential environmental variables. This environmental setting controls pelagic and benthic biodiversity by providing very narrow ecological niches for species displaying varying tolerances to environmental factors such as salinity, temperature and turbidity. In this study, changes in benthic communities in relation to extreme weather conditions, such as the occurrence of heat waves (HW) and coastal upwelling (CU) events, were analyzed and described in the north-eastern Baltic Sea. In the summer of 2018, the maximum water temperatures in the studied coastal sea sections varied between 20 and 25°C at 5 m depth whereby recorded values were up 7°C higher compared to that of the long-term mean. However, daily water temperature showed remarkable variation due to upwelling events occurring on multiple occasions with extreme temperature shifts of 14°C being recorded within a period of a few days. In the NE Baltic Sea, salinity gradient is up to 7 PSU in outer areas and it falls to zero in bays with riverine impact. Salinity has significant importance on benthic species abundance, richness and distribution. A rapid increase in salinity was observed during upwelling events. Extraordinarily, heat wave accompanied with upwelling event caused the increase of zoobenthic biodiversity and species-specific response of abundances. In contrast, the effect on macrovegetation species composition and proportion of opportunistic species was rather negative.

Variations in parameters of extreme value distributions of water level along the eastern Baltic Sea coast

Time series of water level at several sites of the eastern Baltic Sea contain statistically almost impossible outliers. Their presence may considerably modify the appearance of the relevant extreme value distributions. We analyse systematically the variation in the parameters of the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel and Weibull distributions for extreme water levels along a 600 km coastal stretch in the north-eastern Baltic Sea. The parameters of the distributions are evaluated using a) three different methods, b) the output of two different ocean models and c) two versions of block maxima (for calendar years and for stormy seasons), and compared with similar parameters retrieved for measured water level time series at five sites. The location and scale parameters of GEV and Gumbel distributions vary smoothly by about ±30% from their average values. The variation is modest along the open shores of the Baltic Sea proper. All these parameters increase almost linearly along the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The absolute values of the shape parameter of the GEV distribution are mostly <0.2. Different methods for evaluation lead to values of the same magnitude but with a different sign on the open shores of the Baltic Proper. This feature indicates that extreme water levels may follow radically different extreme value distributions in different locations of semi-enclosed seas.