Abstract
Teleconnection patterns can be an important tool for investigating the impact of climate change on biological communities. The aim of the study was, using 2003–2020 data on chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL) and plankton primary production (PP) in midsummer, to determine which of the teleconnection patterns have most pronounced effects on phytoplankton productivity in the estuary located on the border between western and eastern Europe. CHL correlated significantly with the winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOw) and Scandinavia (SCANDw) indices, as well as with the values of the annual Polar/Eurasian (POLy) and annual Arctic Oscillation (AOy) indices. PP was significantly correlated with the values of POLy. East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern showed no significant correlation with both phytoplankton indicators. Stepwise multiple linear regressions were performed to determine the most influential indices affecting CHL and PP in the Neva Estuary. POLy, SCANDw, and NAOw appeared to be the main predictors in CHL multiple regression model, while the values of POLy and the July NAO and SCAND values were the main predictors in the PP model. According to our research, the productivity of phytoplankton in the Neva Estuary, located in the most northeastern part of the Baltic Sea, showed a significant relationship with the POL, which determines weather conditions in the northeastern regions of Eurasia. Possible mechanisms of the influence of these teleconnection patterns on phytoplankton productivity are discussed. Using the obtained multi-regression equations and the values of climatic indices, we calculated the values of CHL and PP for 1951–2002 and compared them with the results of field observations. The calculated and measured values of CHL and PP showed a significant increase in phytoplankton productivity in the Neva Estuary in the second half of the 2010s compared to earlier periods. In some years of the 1950s, 1980s, and late 1990s, CHL could also be above average and the low phytoplankton productivity should have been observed in the 1960s–1970s. This indicates a significant contribution of current climate change to fluctuation in phytoplankton productivity observed in recent decades, which should be taken into account when developing measures to protect aquatic ecosystems from eutrophication.
Highlights
Eutrophication is recognized as a serious environmental and economic problem in coastal areas around the world and in the Baltic Sea in particular (Heisler et al, 2008; Holt et al, 2016; Damar et al, 2020)
Midsummer chlorophyll concentrations in the Neva Estuary were higher in years when AOw and NAOw values were higher and SCANDw values lower
Teleconnection patterns can be an important tool for investigating the impact of climate change on biological communities because of the holistic nature of the climate system (Stenseth et al, 2002)
Summary
Eutrophication is recognized as a serious environmental and economic problem in coastal areas around the world and in the Baltic Sea in particular (Heisler et al, 2008; Holt et al, 2016; Damar et al, 2020). The problem of the mass development of phytoplankton in recent decades has become especially acute due to climate change, which can aggravate the negative consequences for the water ecosystems from human activities (e.g., Behrenfeld et al, 2006; Doney et al, 2012; Golubkov and Golubkov, 2020; Golubkov, 2021). Interannual fluctuations in air temperature and atmospheric precipitation lead to a change in the runoff of nutrients into the Baltic Sea from the catchment area, as well as to alterations in the composition and productivity of phytoplankton (Kotta et al, 2009; Teutschbein et al, 2017; Golubkov and Golubkov, 2020; Golubkov et al, 2021)
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