Northern Sea Route Research Articles

Numerical Hydrodynamic Modelling As A Tool For Research And Use Of Tidal Rivers

Tidal estuaries play a crucial role, serving as major hubs for economic activities while also contributing to the preservation of natural diversity and bioproductivity. In Russia, these estuaries are primarily located in remote regions of the European North and the Far East, making them vital for energy and transportation usage as they essentially form the ‘cores’ of territorial development along the Northern Sea Route. To facilitate the development of energy and navigation infrastructure in tidal estuaries, as well as to plan and implement environmental protection measures, it is essential to have a comprehensive understanding of their hydrological regime. Unlike regular river flow, tidal estuaries exhibit more complex hydrodynamics, influenced by both river and marine factors. Due to the considerable challenges of conducting field hydrological studies in remote areas, numerical hydrodynamic modelling has emerged as a valuable method for obtaining information on the flow and water level regime in tidal estuaries. This paper presents an application of one-dimensional HEC-RAS and two-dimensional STREAM_2D CUDA numerical models to investigate the parameters of reverse currents in the hypertidal Syomzha estuary flowing into the Mezen Bay of the White Sea. The limitations and accuracy of the models are discussed, along with the potential for their improvement considering recent advancements in understanding the hydraulics of reverse currents.

Analysis of Transportation by Mixed-Type Ships along Siberian Rivers Using the Routes of the Northern Sea Route

Analysis of Transportation by Mixed-Type Ships along Siberian Rivers Using the Routes of the Northern Sea Route

Coastal states’ influence on the polar code: An empirical study of Russia and Canada

Climate change presents valuable opportunities for the development and utilization of Arctic passages. It is important to address maritime safety and environmental protection issues faced by ships navigating polar waters through appropriate regulation. The Polar Code is crucial in navigation safety guarantee and marine environmental protection in polar waters. Russia and Canada play a significant role in the negotiations of the Polar Code due to their respective actual control of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. How does Canada and Russia influence on the IMO's law-making related to the Arctic navigation? The study examines the proposals submitted by Russia and Canada during the negotiations of the Polar Code, explores the development paths of their proposals and adoption to clarify their functions vis-à-vis this issue. The study concludes that five factors affect the roles played by states in international law-making, namely the “5C” factors (chiefship, compatibility, combination, contribution, and circulation). This study aims to provide a reference for similar national practices in other states by summarizing the factors that influence decisions on Arctic navigation rules.

Оценка безопасности движения большого автономного необитаемого подводного аппарата

The problems of ensuring the safe motion of a large autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) when it passes through sections with different environmental conditions are considered by the example of the development of the Northern Sea Route. An analysis was made of the influence of various environmental conditions - open and coastal water, fast ice and ice conditions - on the safety of the operation of a large AUV. An approach is proposed to assess the vehicle safety in various environments using a dynamic Bayesian network and conditional probability tables. To test the algorithms for controlling the the vehicle motion and the vehicle itself, a digital test site was developed in the form of a stand for simulating the functioning of the AUV. The development of digital twins in the form of software simulators of the vehicle devices and mechanisms made it possible to test control algorithms on the simulation stand both during normal operation of its systems and in the event of malfunctions due to functioning in various environments. The results obtained on a simulation stand for a large AUV operating on the farthest and most complicated part of the Northern Sea Route - the Vilkitski Strait, helped us to assess the safety of the vehicle operation and outline the ways to improve the safety by upgrading the algorithms for controlling the AUV motion in difficult environmental conditions.

Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020

Arctic shipping activities are increasing in the context of sea ice decline. However, research gaps persist in studying recent Arctic shipping activities across various vessel types and their connection with sea ice conditions. Utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and sea ice satellite observations between 2015 and 2020, these matters are delved into this study. A discernible overall growth trend in Arctic traffic occupancy occurs from 2015 to 2020 during summer and autumn. Excluding passenger ships, the traffic occupancy trend for each ship type closely parallels that for all ships. Variations in traffic occupancy along the Northeast Passage dominate that in the entire Arctic. As sea ice diminishes, both Arctic traffic occupancy and its variability noticeably increase. Further examination of the relationship between shipping activities and ice conditions reveals that increased traffic occupancy corresponds significantly to diminishing sea ice extent, and the constraint imposed by sea ice on Arctic traffic occupancy weakens, while the 6-year AIS data could lead to uncertainties. In summary, as the Arctic sea ice declines continuously, not only sea ice but also additional social, military, and environmental factors constraining marine activities should be considered in the future operation of Arctic shipping.

LEGAL POSSIBILITIES FOR CREATING A SINGLE OPERATOR FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF CONTAINERS BY RUSSIAN COMPANIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

Purpose of the research. This article discusses current issues of organizing the transportation of container cargo by a Russian operating company along the Northern Sea Route. The advantages of using the Northern Sea Route as an international transport and logistics corridor have been identified. The problems of organizing and implementing the transportation of containers along the Northern Sea Route have been identified. A scheme for legal regulation of the activities of a Russian operator for the transportation of containers along the Northern Sea Route has been developed. Results. It has been established that in the Russian Federation there is a necessary system of legal regulation of the functioning of the operator for the transportation of containers along the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to create a state-owned Arctic Container Shipping Company on the basis of the Rosatom, which will be a national operator for the transportation of containers and will be able to most successfully and efficiently establish a Unified a system for transporting container cargo along the Northern Sea Route.

“From Northeast Passage to the Northern Sea Route”. Новая книга об истории Северного морского пути

The present article provides a brief introduction to the first comprehensive scholarly account in English of the history of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) from the earliest exploration to the first decades of the 21st century. It was published in October 2022 under the title “From Northeast Passage to Northern Sea Route. A History of the waterway North of Eurasia” by Brill Academic Publishers, Leiden, The Netherlands. This introduction touches on a few important issues that are discussed in the volume, which is written by a team of Russian, Norwegian, Dutch and British historians and political scientists. The first stage of this project was carried through in the 1990s, within the framework of INSROP (The International Northern Sea Route Programme (1993–1999)), which was conducted by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo. As a result of their efforts four working papers appeared on the history of NSR. In the end a decision was made to develop the topic further into a collective monograph. This second stage of the project, however, started only many years later, in 2015, and was executed in the course of seven years, now under the leadership of the UiT  The Arctic University of Norway. In the present article you will find information about the contents and direction of the monograph, as well as a small sample from the book, chosen from a multitude of other themes, for the simple reason that it is relevant to the recent commemoration of 150th anniversary of Franz Josef Land’s discovery (1873–2023).

Сотрудничество России и Китая в Арктике в энергетической сфере: стратегический взгляд

The imposed sectoral restrictions on the Russian Federation and the current macroeconomic situation create prerequisites for building a new model of cooperation with Asian countries, primarily with the People’s Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China demonstrates a strategic approach to joint implementation of energy projects in the Arctic, having shares in joint ventures with Russian energy com-panies (Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG-2). Yamal LNG, the most complex technological project in the Arctic for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), located on the Yamal Peninsula above the Arctic Circle on the basis of the South Tambeyskoe field, has become the flagship of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic. The joint implementation of this project has the most important geostrategic and industrial significance in the global energy industry, clearly demonstrating the capabilities of the two countries in creating high-tech solutions for gas liquefaction in difficult climatic conditions. It is important that such projects have powerful complex-forming and multiplicative effects, creating conditions for the maximum utilisation of the industries of both countries, as well as for the construction of infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route and the creation of a high-tech fleet for the transportation of liquefied natural gas. Despite the existing legal disagreements between Russia and China regarding economic activities in the Arctic, in light of the current macroeconomic situation, interaction with Asian partners is a promising area of cooperation in the implementation of joint technological projects. With significant financial resources and accumulated engineering and technical competences, the People’s Republic of China is one of Russia's most reliable partners in the context of implementing energy projects. It is important that China is also a buyer of Russian energy resources, which ensures a stable market for hydrocarbons. The publication analyses the development of Russian-Chinese relations and considers the prospects for joint economic cooperation in the Arctic in the energy sector

Map-aiding of the additional secondary factors isosurface by the spline approximation method as a condition of improving the e-Loran observations accuracy

The benefit of the Loran ground-based radio navigation system as an alternative to global navigation satellite systems is argued. The motivation of searching for a duplicate variant is caused by the necessity to ensure the reliability of positioning as a subject of countering spoofing and jamming risks when implementing the concept of cybernetic awareness on water transport. Hypothetically, the possibility of using e-Loran on the Northern Sea Route as a backup navigation system is considered. The experience of operating pilot projects of the enhanced Loran in the issue of the predicted potential of positioning accuracy is analyzed. The optimal method of compensation for the system error of geolocation based on the use of additional secondary factors is investigated. Taking into account the principle of the d-Loran functional, based on comparing the measured values of the radio signal passage delay with published analogues for transmitting clarifications to marine consumers, the necessity of using integrity as a criterion for a confidence assessment of the navigation information processing reliability has been determined. A critical analysis of the attempts effectiveness to use the linear interpolation method to calculate intermediate representative values of the delay in the radio signal transmission in order to simulate the map of additional secondary factors is performed. The hypothesis of the prospects for the isosurface corrections synthesis based on B-spline approximation is put forward. The South Korean experiment of synthesizing a chart of additional secondary factors with measured indicators of the radio signal propagation time delay in nanoseconds from the Pohang transmitting station has been repeated at the correct algorithmic level. In order to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the spline algorithm, a computer visualization of a cartographic fragment of additional secondary factors of Yongil Bay is performed. It is suggested that three-dimensional representation of the additional secondary factor for situational perception by the Officer on watch of map-aided correction as a process in alternative positioning in order to increase the reliability of location control through visual evaluation of proper use of corrections of the e-Loran differential variant. The prospect of using the developed package of applied Pascal-programs with implementations on display-type monitors as intellectual support for decision-making by the navigator in a posteriori assessment of the observation accuracy due to the visual representation of the correction field is noted.

Modern prospects for the port infrastructure development of the Northern Sea Route

The current development stage of the Northern Sea Route is associated with the active port infrastructure development and an increase in cargo traffic. This development dynamics is attributed to national strategic priorities and targeted funding of projects. In this connection, administrative regulation and regulatory lawmaking are actively developing. One of the difficulties in implementing infrastructure projects in the Arctic region is related to the trend of permafrost soil degradation. The system of geocryological monitoring of the Arctic allows the state of the permafrost zone to be taken into account when implementing projects.

Evaluating the impact of Northern Sea Route fuel costs on bilateral trade between China and the EU

Evaluating the impact of Northern Sea Route fuel costs on bilateral trade between China and the EU

THE ARCTIC: THE STRUGGLE FOR RESOURCES AND INFLUENCE IN THE REGION

Modern climate changes caused by the processes of global warming are clearly reflected in the geopolitical interests of various states of the world in relation to the Arctic region. Accordingly, the relevance of the study of this issue is caused by the formation in the last decade of a number of opportunities that may be open to a state that will establish its influence in the Arctic. This is due to a combination of economic and political advantages expressed in the extraordinary amount of resources that characterize this region, the development of rational sea routes, the satisfaction of commercial goals and even the protection of the sovereignty of coastal countries. Thus, the purpose of the work was to define the Arctic as a political arena, in particular, to reveal the interests and plans of various countries regarding its territory and resources. For this, the research used the method of analysis and synthesis, comparison, deduction, generalization, as well as historical. As a result, it was established that active climatic changes in the world cause the formation and development of new economic opportunities in the Arctic. Accordingly, the role of this region was determined for such countries as Canada, Russia, United States of America, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Finland. It was possible to establish that their interests are to a greater extent caused by the desire to control the operation of the Northern Sea Route. In addition, the work described the advantages of the Arctic region, which describe the priority of establishing control over this territory by the relevant state. In particular, it is beneficial for the development of economic activity, the protection of the territories of coastal countries, it is characterized by a significant number of deposits of natural resources and other minerals, as well as wide transit opportunities. Thus, it was proved that it is appropriate to consider the Arctic as a socio-cultural, ethnic, socio-economic, geopolitical space around the North Pole, the resources of which provoke world states to compete with each other. The practical value of the work is revealed in the possibility of using its results for further scientific research, as well as educational material for those studying the Arctic and its role in international relations.

The reorientation of Russia’s trade corridors since the invasion of Ukraine

ABSTRACT The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought urgency to Russia’s reorienting of its key international trade corridors. Shifts in trade flows had been developing for some time before the invasion, in particular the ‘turn to the East’ of 2012. But they have been more dramatic since the invasion. The article describes these new developments, covering trade in all directions: the ports of the north-west, in circumstances of a dramatic decline in trade with Europe; the Northern Sea Route; the overtaxed East, including the Eastern rail network (the polygon), the ports of the Russian Far East, and the land border with China; and southern routes, through Turkey and Iran, that have suddenly received new importance. Although not a full-blown policy analysis, the article makes some points relevant to our understanding of the Russian policy process, in particular the relevance of commercial considerations in a policy area with national security implications, the role of Putin as alternatively a decisive and diffident leader, and the place of bureaucratic politics, including the role within it of official and business champions.

Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065

ABSTRACT The Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans.

Three Berths at the Village of Novy Port

Abstract This article examines the local history of the Northern Sea Route using the Yamal settlement of Novy Port as a case study. Shifting the focus of research from the capital-based decision-making centers to the anchor points of the Transpolar Route makes it possible to see complex collisions, alternative options, deviations from plans, and other failures, without which it is impossible to implement such large-scale projects as the Northern Sea Route. Novy Port was assigned the role of one of the outposts of the Soviet colonization of the Arctic. At each of the identified stages of the history of Novy Port, its modus vivendi was formulated anew, which reflected a change in paradigms in the development of the Northern Sea Route.

Ледовитость российских арктических морей трассы Северного морского пути в современный климатический период

The paper considers the ice cover in the Arctic seas of the Northern Sea Route (NSR): Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi since 1946. A comparison of the long-term course of integral average annual air temperature anomalies and seasonal average ice cover anomalies allows identifying a year 2005, starting from which the sea ice cover sharply decreases in a good agreement with the increase and accumulation of positive air temperature anomalies. The researchers reveal that the average level of ice cover has decreased by 1.7 times since 2005, however, the values of the range of fluctuations and standard deviation have remained almost unchanged, i.e. ice cover fluctuates in the same range, but at a lower average level. The main shipping routes are cleared about three decades earlier. The repeatability of complete cleansing of the seas has increased to 60—90%.

The influence of landfast ice on the navigation in the Arctic Northeast Passage

Landfast ice is one of the most important factors that affect the navigation safety of Arctic Northeast and Northwest Passages but usually is treated as drift ice in previous studies. This study focused on the situation of landfast ice in four key traits of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2007 to 2021 and calculated the navigational windows for different ice-class vessels in the influence of landfast ice. The results show that the extent of landfast ice in these straits generally reaches its maximum from March to June, and decreases to a minimum or even disappears in July and August. The proportion of landfast ice extent in the four straits is quite different, such as Bering Strait (1.3%), De Long Strait (3.6%), Dmitry Laptev and Sannikov Strait (DLS Strait) (53.5%), and Vilkitsky Strait (27.8%). The average navigational windows range from 27 weeks (Bering Strait) to 8 weeks (Vilkitsky Strait) per year, and the Bering Strait showed the smallest increase trend (0.20 weeks per year), while the Vilkitsky Strait experienced the largest increase trend (0.62 weeks per year). The increasing navigational windows in the key straits are beneficial for future commercial and scientific expeditions of polar vessels in the Northeast Passage.

Перспективные на свинец и цинк рудные районы Арктической зоны России

Based on the research carried out on the territory of the Arctic zone of Russia the authors have identified ore districts that are promising for the discovery and development of Pb-Zn deposits, among which only one large Pavlovskoe deposit (Novaya Zemlya Archipelago) is at the development stage. More than 20 facilities are dispersed in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, Taimyr, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Chukotka Autonomous Area. They outline that most of the ore districts are located in the 100-km zone of economic accessibility (high priority of mineral resources development) to the Northern Sea Route. Within the three-ore districts, it is possible to form new mining clusters, including several nearby deposits. The authors indicate prospects for the discovery of new deposits as well as challenges in the development of the mineral resource base of the considered ore regions: lack of infrastructure, arctic climate, remoteness, and the need for a large volume of geological exploration.

Risk assessment of ice-class-based navigation in Arctic: a case study in the Vilkitsky Strait

Over the past four decades, the decrease in Arctic sea ice has driven significant growth in vessel traffic through the Arctic passages. A precise and quantitative sea ice risk assessment would be the cornerstone of route planning for Arctic ships. Taking the chokepoint of Arctic Northeast Passage, the Vilkitsky Strait, as an example, the temporal and spatial characteristics of ice conditions in the strait were analyzed based on simulated ice thickness and observed sea ice concentration data from 2012 to 2021. Additionally, navigation risk in the strait was assessed based on the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS). The results showed that the strait experienced 100% sea ice coverage from December to May, peaking in thickness of nearly 2 m in May, receding starting in June, and presenting ice-free passages by August and September. A significant interannual variability is evident in the timing of sea ice melting and freezing. Moreover, the average navigability of the strait was 365 days for vessels with an ice class of PC3, 72 days for PC6 and fewer than 64 days for those below B1. Remarkably, in 2013, 2014, and 2021, vessels below PC5 had less than 30 navigable days in the strait.

International Law Issues Concerning Marine Environment Protection in the Arctic

International Law Issues Concerning Marine Environment Protection in the Arctic