The reorientation of Russia’s trade corridors since the invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought urgency to Russia’s reorienting of its key international trade corridors. Shifts in trade flows had been developing for some time before the invasion, in particular the ‘turn to the East’ of 2012. But they have been more dramatic since the invasion. The article describes these new developments, covering trade in all directions: the ports of the north-west, in circumstances of a dramatic decline in trade with Europe; the Northern Sea Route; the overtaxed East, including the Eastern rail network (the polygon), the ports of the Russian Far East, and the land border with China; and southern routes, through Turkey and Iran, that have suddenly received new importance. Although not a full-blown policy analysis, the article makes some points relevant to our understanding of the Russian policy process, in particular the relevance of commercial considerations in a policy area with national security implications, the role of Putin as alternatively a decisive and diffident leader, and the place of bureaucratic politics, including the role within it of official and business champions.