International trade between Turkey and China

Abstract

Purpose- This study examines the development of China – Turkey international trade with the comparison of macroeconomic trends, global trade developments, bilateral agreements. Also, this study analyses the expected effects of de-globalization, broken global value chains after the Covid19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Methodology- The study provides a macroconomic background for international trade developments between 2000 – 2021, focusing on China and Turkey. By comparing and examining world trade developments, the study sets a numerical background for potential future developments. Findings- The analysis reveals that global developments, changing power structures and trade flows has been re-shaping the world economic outlook and causing few debates around the continuity of “globalization”. Rising political nationalism, repercussions of Covid 19 pandemic, supply/demand mismatches, Brexit and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted international trade paradigms and Great Powers that has been the cause and pioneers of globalization are now forming new partnerships. As one of the largest and most dominant players in global world trade, China has a pivotal role in determining the changing paradigms of international trade. Turkey also plays a critical role in current re-positioning of the world trade not because of the share it has from international trade like United States, European Union, China or Russia but because of the geopolitical importance it has and because of the bilateral relations it builds with other Great Powers. Conclusion- Turkey’s bilateral trade volume has been growing with China and is set to grow further with all the economic and politic steps taken. Covid19 pandemic and the shutdowns have shown to the world the importance of free trade, uninterrupted supply chains and global stability. The pandemic restrictions are finally over but the effects on worldwide economy and politic instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have forced new economic alliances. Turkey, with its proximity to European markets and cheap labor, is becoming a new base of production for international players. Numbers prove that bilateral economic relations have grown with China, but the growth has been mostly fueled by exports from China, causing the trade gap to become wider. As Asia is becoming to be the center of global economic growth, it is certain that Turkey’s international trade with China and it’s partners will grow. Keywords: China, Turkey, world trade, international trade, de-globalization, bilateral trade. JEL Codes: M30, M31.