North Atlantic Treaty Organization Membership Research Articles

Deterrence and Missed Opportunities: Insights from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The paper critiques the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a nuclear-armed alliance, exploring whether enlargement provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the role of deterrence in conflict escalation. Despite NATO's efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses without direct intervention, questions remain about the effectiveness of its deterrence strategy. Public opinion shifts in Sweden and Finland toward NATO membership after Russia’s actions highlight broader implications for European security. The paper also assesses the non-implementation of the Minsk agreements, exploring missed opportunities for conflict resolution and peacebuilding. By examining these dynamics, it contributes to debates on NATO's future, the efficacy of nuclear deterrence, and the prospects for cooperative security amidst escalating global tensions.

Finland's Strategic Shift: A New Chapter with NATO Membership

This paper delves into Finland's potential accession to NATO, marking a significant departure from its longstanding policy of military non-alignment. As geopolitical dynamics in the Baltic region undergo profound changes, Finland's consideration of NATO membership carries far-reaching implications for regional security and global geopolitics. Finland responded to Russian aggressiveness by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to counteract Russia�s security threats in the region. The abstract explores the historical context of Finland's neutrality, the evolving security landscape, and the factors driving the nation towards reevaluating its defense posture. Using the research method of critical content analysis and in-depth interview with military and defense and security analyst Rahakundini, the potential impact on NATO, Russia's response, and the broader implications for the delicate balance of power in Northern Europe. The proposed NATO membership signals a strategic recalibration for Finland, with ramifications extending beyond national borders, shaping the geopolitical narrative in an ever-evolving international arena.

Examining Post-Cold War Geopolitical Transformations in Central and Eastern Europe: The Baltic States’ Path to EU and NATO Membership and the Evolving Dynamics of Relations with Russia

This article provides a detailed exploration of the geopolitical transformations in the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—following the Cold War, focusing on their journey towards the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership, and the evolving dynamics of their relations with Russia. It examines the historical backdrop of their accession, the processes involved, and the impacts on these states, including their interactions with Russia from initial tensions to diplomatic engagements. This study underscores the significance of EU and NATO integration for regional stability and delves into the complexities of the Baltic states’ post-Cold War relations with Russia, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by these states in establishing their independence and security in the contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Foreword: Expanding NATO: What Challenges and Opportunities Wait Ahead?

In an ever-changing world marked by geopolitical shifts and evolving security threats, it is crucial to reassess and adapt the collective defense architecture that underpins international stability. Established more than 70 years ago, NATO has been a crucial element of global security and a demonstration of the effectiveness of collective defense. The expansion of NATO's reach has become a significant topic of debate as the world evolves. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has effectively ensured the security of its member states through a collective defense framework, making it a successful alliance. The evolving global landscape, which includes emerging threats, changing power dynamics, and evolving security challenges, has led to a reassessment of NATO's role and scope. There are those who advocate for the acceptance of NATO's expansion as a means of strengthening security and fostering collaboration among nations with similar values. The argument posits that enlarging NATO's membership can function as a deterrent against acts of aggression, strengthen democratic principles, and promote a more stable global system. This special issue, which we had the great pleasure of working together with NATO’s Public Diplomacy Divison, seeks to delve into the multifaceted dimensions of expanding NATO, exploring the challenges and opportunities that lie on the horizon. As we examine this critical issue, it is important to emphasize that the views expressed in these pages are diverse and reflect the complex and varied perspectives on NATO's expansion. Our authors, specialists from a wide-range of different fields, contributed their valuable opinions regarding this important discussion which has become further important since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has escalated with simultaneously intensifying debates concerning the start of a new Cold-War in our time.

Assessing the credibility of information sources in times of uncertainty: online debate about Finland's NATO membership

PurposeThis article aims to elaborate the context-sensitive nature of credibility assessment by examining how such judgments are made in online discussion in times of uncertainty caused by Finland's intent to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in spring 2022.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical findings draw on the qualitative content analysis of 3,324 posts submitted to a Finnish online discussion in February–March 2022. It was examined how the participants of online discussion assess the credibility of information sources referred to in debates on the NATO membership. It is assumed that the believability of the author of information is indicative of his or her expert power, for example based on the credentials of a scholar, while the credibility of information content, for example the provision of factual evidence is indicative of the source's informational power.FindingsPolitical decision-makers, particularly the President of Finland were assessed as most credible information sources, due to their access to confidential knowledge and long-time experience in politics. The credibility assessments differed more strongly while judging the believability of researchers. On the one hand, their expertise was praised; on the other hand, doubts were presented about their partiality. Fellow participants of online discussion were assessed most negatively because information sources of these types are associated with low expert and informational power.Research limitations/implicationsAs the study concentrated on credibility assessments made in a Finnish online discussion group, the findings cannot be extended to concern the credibility judgments occurring information in other contexts.Originality/valueThe study is among the first to characterize the role of expert and informational power in credibility assessment in times of uncertainty.

NATO defense demand, free riding, and the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022

The article applies the economic theory of alliances to uncover military expenditure burden sharing in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during 1991–2020, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In so doing, our analysis accounts for the relative locations of NATO allies through various spatial or economic weights applied to the allies’ defense spending. Such weights include NATO membership status, contiguity, US power projection, inverse distance between members’ capitals, economic trade, and contiguity to Russia. In the post-Cold War era, we uncover allies’ free riding on the aggregate military expenditure of other allies. Free riding also included reliance on the defense spending of NATO allies in proximity to Russia. Surprisingly, NATO allies reduced their defense spending as Russia increased its defense spending. The pattern of free riding and lack of response to heightened Russian defense spending likely encouraged the Russian invasion as NATO appeared divided.

Some Implications of Sweden and Finland Joining NATO

Sweden and Finland’s decision to abandon their longtime, famous neutrality and apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) indicates that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has disastrously backfired. These two new NATO members will bring tangible geostrategic benefits to the alliance, not just a token weight. NATO has suddenly gained a new and greater strength and legitimacy. As for the Kurds, they need to understand that NATO’s deal with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to approve Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership in return for their cracking down on supposed Kurdish terrorists sheltering within their borders is not as hostile to Kurdish interests as they claim. Sweden and Finland are not likely to extradite Kurds accused of political crimes to Turkey. The Kurds should comprehend their very secondary position in the existential power struggle involving NATO and Russia and not overreact against it. As explained below, this deal with Turkey, like earlier ones, is not likely to be as inimical to Kurdish interests as first meets the eye.

An Unnecessary War of Fame: The East and West NATO’s Enlargement Strategies and the Geopolitics of Russo- Ukrainian Conflict

Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the most critical geopolitical crises the world leaders are facing currently. And is being seen as one of the most serious test of European security in the recent time, and its presents a serious challenge as to understanding of President Putin’s geopolitical intentions while, these grievances included the long-simmering dispute over the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity as well as their statehood. It reflected a worldview Putin had long expressed, emphasizing the deep-seated unity among the Eastern Slavs-Russians and Ukrainians who they both trace their origins to the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth-and suggesting that the modern states of Russia and Ukraine should share a common political destiny now and in the future. Owing to that view is the claim that distinct Ukrainian identity is the product of foreign manipulation mostly, by Russia’s acclaimed imperial rivals; using Ukraine as part of an “anti-Russia project. Consequently, the paper revealed that NATO is not only Russia’s problem but, Russia’s ambitions to extend beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership and encompass a more detailed aspiration to dominate Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically triggered the current conflict in Ukraine. The paper further revealed that Russia is almost certain to flop in its bid to establish lasting control over its neighbors owing to external factors, mostly the West and the nonconformist nature of Ukraine government. Therefore, concludes that if Russia must feel fully secure with regard to Ukraine, Ukraine must be territorially truncated or geopolitically neutralized by Russia. Then, if neutralization is not feasible as a strategy, Russia must renewed stability, though, this option would largely depend either on the West agreeing in renewed Russian control of Ukraine, or on Russia accepting the loss of Ukraine. It is most likely that a non-cooperative result will emerge at the end of the day, in which Russia may limit its military activity, but will continue to ensure that Ukraine cannot do what is desired to achieve or join Europe-west- NATO world.

Determinants of Defense Spending: The Role of Strategic Factors in France

ABSTRACT This paper examines the main determinants of French defense spending over the period 1958–2017. To estimate the determinants of defense spending, the demand defense literature considers both economic and strategic factors such as conflicts, threats, and alliances. Our approach is original because we focus on strategic factors, including proxies for an alliance’s membership and external threats. In addition, we include transnational terrorism as a proxy for internal threats. We find that defense spending is positively related to the gross domestic product, North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership, military operations abroad, and external threats and negatively linked to the population as a proxy to public service needs. These results are robust to changes in specifications and shifts in defense policy observed after 1991. This contribution underlines that the fundamental determinants of defense policy in France are economic conditions.

PARTICIPATION OF SERVICEMEN OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE IN INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING AND SECURITY OPERATIONS (1992-2018)

The paper retrospectively covers the peacekeeping activities of the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the independence of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military's peacekeeping activities were authorized by the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine "Pro uchast batalionu Zbroinykh Syl Ukrainy v Myrotvorchykh Sylakh Orhanizatsii Obiednanykh Natsii u zonakh konfliktiv na terytorii kolyshnoi Yuhoslavii" (1992). The author focused on the characteristics of peacekeeping activities of the Ukrainian military in the countries of the former Yugoslavia (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eastern Slavonia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia), on the African continent (Angola, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire), countries of the Middle East (Lebanon, Tajikistan, Kuwait, Iraq) and others. It is noted that servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during peacekeeping operations mostly patrol areas of responsibility, engaged in the transportation of United Nations personnel, escort humanitarian cargos, control the ceasefire, and withdrawal of troops. International peacekeeping operations vary in duration (from several months to several years), funding, and the number of personnel involved. Usually, the results of Ukrainian peacekeepers were highly praised by the leadership of international security organizations. Participation of Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) programs, Partnership for Peace, international peacekeeping activities under the auspices of the United Nations, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) brings our country closer to NATO membership, contributes to strengthening its international prestige. Keywords: armed forces, NATO, peacekeeping operations, UN, Ukrainian contingent.

Kremlin jalanjäljet: Suomettuminen ja vuoden 2002 vakoilukohun tausta

<i>Kremlin jalanjäljet: Suomettuminen ja vuoden 2002 vakoilukohun tausta</i>

ON THE WAY TOWARDS NATO: CURRENT CHALLENGES PROSPECTS OF IMPLEMENTING SAFETY POLICY

The priority national interest of Ukraine in the field of foreign policy is the development and further deepening of relations between Ukraine's strategic partnership with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The article gives a brief overview of the history of the formation and expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance as an international intergovernmental organization and military and political alliance, showing the main milestones of Ukraine's long journey towards NATO membership. NATO-Ukraine relations have two main dimensions: political dialogue and practical cooperation. Ukraine's political dialogue with the Alliance is ensured through bilateral contacts at all levels, including the interparliamentary dimension. NATO and its Member States continue to receive logistical, advisory and training assistance to the Ukrainian security and defense sector. The author draws attention to the most urgent security problems of Europe and Ukraine, as well as highlights the latest challenges to the World Order. For Ukraine, strategic partnership with NATO is an integral part of the European integration course, as it complements the process of internal transformation in the context of the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine, on the one hand, and the European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their member states, and their member states. . NATO-Ukraine relations have been developing ever since Ukraine gained independence in 1991.Given Ukraine's strategic position as a bridge between Eastern and Western Europe, NATO-Ukraine relations are central to building peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. NATO and Ukraine are actively involved in international peacekeeping operations and in addressing common security concerns. Over time, certain trends of dialogue and practical cooperation on a wide range of other issues were identified. A key aspect of the partnership was support for the Alliance and individual NATO member countries in their reform efforts, which have been further fueled by the dramatic events of the 2004 Orange Revolution and remain critical to meeting Ukraine's aspirations to integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures. Key words: NATO, alliance, permanent membership, summit, declaration, security, challenge, problems, military, aggression, hybrid war, politics, experience, forecasting, realization, solution.

The Price of European Integration

Parallel expansions of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in recent decades have blurred the lines between membership in the two organizations and the conditionalities attached to each. While both organizations have seemed successful in attracting Eastern European states, this essay argues that NATO’s successful eastern expansion has been due to the EU’s encouragement of these states’ NATO accession, not because of their enthusiasm for membership in the union. This was the case in Montenegro. Despite the country’s lack of external threats and persistent domestic opposition to NATO membership, the government nevertheless refocused its efforts from European integration to Euro-Atlantic integration in order to bring the country closer to EU accession. This codependent enlargement has benefited both organizations: the EU is able to secure its eastern boundaries without developing a comprehensive security and defense policy, while NATO is able to expand its influence over important geopolitical locations despite domestic resistance to such expansion.

NATO Enlargement—Was There a Promise?

NATO Enlargement—Was There a Promise?

Słowackie elity polityczne wobec Organizacji Traktatu Północnoatlantyckiego w latach 1993-2004

The Slovakian political elite’s attitude towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the years 1993‑2004&#x0D; The article elaborates on Slovakia’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It analyses both internal and external factors which impacted on the process and introduces the main political actors in the “NATO or neutrality” debate. Particular attention was paid to the domestic factors, mainly political rivalries between the People’s Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) and the rest of the political scene. The author argues that the quest for NATO membership was sacrificed for the sake of current political struggle, which resulted in Bratislava’s exclusion from the first group of Eastern European invitees. Therefore, the concept of neutrality and the idea of balancing between East and West were created for ad hoc reasons, rather than being a genuine geopolitical alternative formed by Slovakia’s political elite.

Turkey’s quest for NATO membership: the institutionalization of the Turkish–American alliance

This article aims to analyze the institutionalization of the Turkish–American alliance through the Turkish pursuit of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership. It examines the external as well as some of the internal factors that shaped this transformation during the period of 1945–1952, starting with the end of the Second World War and lasting until Turkey’s accession to NATO. The main argument of this paper is that Turkey’s NATO membership has institutionalized three important transformations. The first one is the culmination of Turkey’s long-lasting search for security. The second one is Turkey’s quest for Westernization and an acknowledgement of its identity and role as an integral part of the West and its institutions. Finally, the third and more specific one is the institutionalization of the Turkish–American alliance through Turkey’s NATO membership, which has become one of the main pillars of Turkish foreign policy to this date.

EU and NATO Enlargement Puzzles

Enlargements of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) present major puzzles. While many post-communist countries, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Albania, and the Baltic States, were granted a membership or a prospect of membership in these organizations, a number of post-communist countries located in Europe, such as Russia, Belarus, Moldova, and Azerbaijan, were not offered prospects of membership even when they would satisfy official criteria for joining the EU and NATO. Some countries, such as Ukraine and Georgia, were officially recognized as potential members of NATO but not the European Union. The question is which factors account for such significant variation in the accession to the EU and NATO among European post-communist countries. Previous studies explained the exclusion of certain post-communist countries by their failure to meet such formal and informal EU membership criteria as liberal democracy, European location and identity, Western Christian religious tradition, high level of economic development, relatively small population size, and popular and government support in prospective members and most influential existing members. Similarly, NATO accession studies emphasized such criteria as democracy, peaceful resolution of internal ethnic conflicts or territorial disputes, and ability to meet NATO military standards. This paper uses comparative and multiple regression analysis to determine which factors affect the European Union and NATO membership of 25 European post-communist countries. The EU accession index and the NATO accession index are derived from the status of each country as a member, as a candidate, as a potential candidate, and as a non-member/not a potential candidate. Such factors, as the level of democracy, the economic level of development, religion, post-Soviet region, population size, violent conflicts, and public support for EU or NATO membership, are analyzed. The study shows that the level of democracy and the economic development level have positive effects on the EU accession, while being a post-Soviet country has a negative effect. Similarly, the level of democracy positively affects the NATO accession, while post-Soviet states have negative likelihood of admission into NATO when all other factors are held constant.

NATO Membership for Albania and Croatia: Military Modernization, Geo-Strategic Opportunities and Force Projection

While research on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its out-of-area operations continues to thrive, very little analysis exists on NATO's ongoing membership enlargement. This article examines NATO's newest members, Albania and Croatia, and their recent efforts to transform themselves into security producers for the alliance. This research examines each state's recent military purchases, their potential geo-strategic value to the alliance, and their ability to contribute to NATO missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo. While their abilities to project force remain limited, the findings presented here suggest that these states have made measurable military advancements and bring meaningful geo-strategic advantages to the alliance, which provides additional evidence of the success of NATO's enlargement policies.

An integrated strategic benchmarking model for assessing international alliances with application to NATO membership enlargement

PurposePromoting security, stability and cooperation is the raison d'être of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and these are the aims of its strategy of membership enlargement. The incentive of NATO membership has led some former Warsaw Pact applicant countries to reform their political systems, transform their economies, deal with corruption and improve social justice and human rights. However, controversy has surrounded NATO's enlargement because of the current ambiguous and subjective decision‐making process and the effect that it could have on the organization. This paper aims to present the results of a study to develop a benchmarking model as a means to assist NATO evaluate and screen potential applicant countries.Design/methodology/approachA novel and structured multiple‐criteria decision analysis model that considers specific NATO applicant evaluation criteria and environmental forces is offered and a template for a membership evaluation process is proposed. A total of 120 researchers in France, Germany, Switzerland and the USA provided the necessary data on the 23 countries that are analyzed in order to develop the benchmarking model. Four distinct categories were established to categorize these countries. The ranking of the countries based on Euclidean distance from the ideal state is illustrated with a classification schema outlining four typologies as beneficial believers, detrimental disadvantaged, perilous partners and apathetic acquaintances.FindingsAmong the potential applicant countries considered as “beneficial believers” are Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Finland and Ireland while other countries, such as, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Montenegro, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are considered as “detrimental disadvantaged”. Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine were identified as “perilous partners” and Malta, FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Serbia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia and Moldova were identified as “apathetic acquaintances”.Practical implicationsThis model could be applied to other supranational organizations and multinational firms when assessing international strategic alliances.Originality/valueThe paper presents the results of a study to develop a benchmarking model as an aid in evaluating and screening potential NATO applicant countries.

Constructing Turkey's “Western” Identity during the Cold War

Throughout the republican era, membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions has provided Turkey's policymakers with the opportunity to assert the country's identity. Indeed, Turkey's westernness has been expressed, not only through the adoption of ideas and manners from the west (as happened in Ottoman times), but also through joining western institutions, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This one of the reasons why the US project of promoting democracy in the greater Middle East received with enthusiasm by some in Ankara. Notwithstanding the concerns of those who worry that taking an active part in this project would undermine the carefully constructed role Islam plays in shaping political processes in Turkey, others seem to consider this scheme an opportunity to entrench Turkey's position within NATO and (re)assert its western identity.1Leaving aside the somewhat paradoxical nature of seeking to assert western identity through posing as a model for the Middle East, what should be emphasized here the first premise of this article: that state identity in Turkey and elsewhere is always potentially precarious, it needs constantly to be stabilized or (re)produced.2 It through the representational practices of state and nonstate actors (including policymakers, scholars, and journalists) that state identity produced and/or reproduced. Such representational practices include state officials' discourses on a particular foreign policy issue, scholarly writings on lands far away, writings and speeches of policy makers and journalists, geopolitical discourses of myriad actors, and even popular film.'A second premise of the article that what makes foreign policy (i.e., relations between states) possible a political practice that makes certain events and actors foreign, that is, the politics of exclusion and inclusion, processes of constituting particular objects as part of them (foreign), and other objects as part of us. Viewed as such, representational practices constitute a significant component of the process of making something foreign. Foreign policy practices of states, in turn, reproduce the constitution of identity made possible by [the foreign policy practices of states] and...contain challenges to the identity which results.4 Stated with reference to Turkey's case, representational practices of various actors have constructed Turkey's identity as western as opposed to eastern. After defining itself and others, Turkey's foreign policy has been conducted upon these specific actors. Such diplomatic conduct, in turn, has helped to (re)produce Turkey's western identity and has sustained a pro-western orientation.The significance of NATO membership to Turkey's claim to belong to the west cannot be overemphasized. The efforts of Turkish policymakers to locate Turkey in the west as opposed to non-west can be traced back to the early republican era when westernization became one of the cornerstones of Kemal Ataturk's foreign and domestic policies. In the aftermath of the second World War, this policy was pursued through the search for US assistance (which came in the form of the Truman doctrine in 1947) and its institutionalization in the form of NATO membership. Later still, Turkey began to pursue membership in the European Economic Community, now the European Union, a goal that still a keystone of the country's foreign policy.Joining NATO in the early Cold War era proved difficult not least because of considerable suspicion regarding Turkey's commitment to western security-a suspicion that was raised by Ankara's decision to remain outside the second World War. Although that decision had served Turkey's purpose at the time, it was not without ramifications for its postwar relations. Writing in 1947, five years before it acceded to the Atlantic alliance, Ambassador Cevat Acikalm sought to offset such suspicions by reminding the readers of International Affairs, the flagship journal of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, of the country's contribution to the allied war effort:[A]t a moment when the Allies were in great difficulties, Turkey played the role of a temporary shield behind which the Russians and the British were able to use their forces more freely against the aggressors in various theatres of operations. …