North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

The Summertime Circulation Types over Eurasia and Their Connections with the North Atlantic Oscillation Modulated by North Atlantic SST

ERA5 monthly averaged reanalysis data during 1979–2020 are used to analyze the anomalous characteristics of summertime circulation types over Eurasia and their connections with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulated by North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). A circulation index (CI) is defined to describe the anomalous characteristics of summertime circulation types over the Eurasian mid-high latitude and classify the anomalous circulation into a double-ridge type (DR-type) and double-trough type (DT-type). The results show that these anomalous circulation types are closely related to the variation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), South Asia high (SAH) and summer precipitation anomalies in China. There is a significant negative correlation between summer NAO and circulation types over Eurasia. The positive CI is favorable for the southward movement of the EASJ and two positive height anomalies over the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, respectively. Accompanied by moisture convergence and a strong ascending motion over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV), the summer rainfall will be above normal. These patterns are reversed in positive NAO-index years. The connection between the NAO and circulation types over Eurasia is modulated by a tri-pole SST anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic, which may induce the NAO-like atmospheric circulation and strengthen the impacts of the NAO on Eurasian circulation types. A wave train from the North Atlantic to East Asia, which is aroused by the tri-pole SST anomaly pattern, is the potential mechanism for linking summer NAO and circulation types over Eurasia.

Impacts of the strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature: mean state

Impacts of the strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature: mean state

Persistence or Transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation Across Boreal Winter: Role of the North Atlantic Air‐Sea Coupling

AbstractClimate anomalies over North America and Europe are closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The persistence, decay or switch of the NAO phase across the boreal winter determines whether the NAO‐related climate anomalies are sustained, weakened or reversed during the boreal winter. This study compares the spatiotemporal evolution of atmospheric wind and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic corresponding to persistence and switch of the NAO phase across the boreal winter. It is revealed that the persistence of the NAO from early to late winter is associated with a strong coupling between the NAO and the North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies. The formation of the tripole SST anomalies is attributed to the wind‐related surface latent heat flux changes. The tripole SST anomalies feedback on the NAO through eddy‐mean flow interaction. In contrast, during the winters with the switch of the NAO phase, the North Atlantic SST anomalies follow the wind changes, but do not have obvious feedback on the NAO. Our analysis identifies a prominent change of the winter NAO evolution in the early 1990s. The NAO switches its phase from early to late winter during 1970s through the early 1990s, but tends to maintain its phase during the boreal winter after the early 1990s. This interdecadal change appears to be related to the mean SST change. The SST increase in both the tropical and mid‐latitude North Atlantic Ocean in the early 1990s enhances the feedback of the NAO‐induced tripole SST anomalies on the NAO.

Multiproxy Reconstruction of Pliocene North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Rainfall in North Africa

AbstractWetter conditions in the African Sahel during the Pliocene (5.3–2.6 Ma) likely played an important role in hominid evolution and may be explained by warm North Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), similar to the modern warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). We reconstruct Pliocene North Atlantic (2°S to 60°N) SSTs through a multiproxy reduced‐dimension methodology that combines two new foraminiferal (Trilobatus sacculifer) Mg/Ca‐based SST records from Ocean Drilling Program sites in the northwestern Atlantic (Site 997) and Gulf of Mexico (Site 625) with previously published multi‐proxy SST records from seven additional Atlantic sites. Our Pliocene reconstructions indicate that the North Atlantic was overall warmer than the comparison period (0–0.5 Ma) with the most extreme warming occurring in the tropical and eastern subtropical North Atlantic and in the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, the mean state of North Atlantic warming at 5 Ma resembles that of the modern warm phase of the AMO with average SST anomalies of 3.8°C ± 0.5°C in the AMO region. With that reconstructed index, along with reconstructed El Niño‐like eastern Tropical Pacific SSTs from our previous research, we reconstruct rainfall over the Pliocene North Africa, covering the Sahara‐Sahel region and the Megalake Chad Basin and find up to twice the rainfall of that today. We surmise that this increased precipitation rate, along with other aiding land and sub‐surface processes, sustained Megalake Chad.

Colpophyllia natans From Tobago, a Novel Paleoclimate Archive for Reconstructing Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

AbstractMassive, long‐lived Siderastrea and Diploria corals are species commonly used for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions in the North Atlantic. However, they are rarely found to exceed 200 years in age. Thus, it is imperative to continuously develop alternative taxa for paleoreconstructions. Colpophyllia natans, a highly populous tropical North Atlantic coral, are known to grow large colonies, potentially containing environmental records spanning several hundreds of years. However, its low density and complicated architecture poses a challenge in extracting climate signals from this coral. This study presents the first monthly‐resolved climate calibration of Colpophyllia natans and validates its utility as a new paleoarchive, relative to Siderastrea siderea. Linear regressions of monthly and interannual coral Sr/Ca with instrumental SST reveal robust, significant relationships (p < 0.05), indicating that microsampling along a single thecal wall of C. natans allowed for robust climate reconstructions. Additionally, both corals capture similar SST variations (t‐test, p ≥ 0.05), which allowed for the generation of a single, composite interspecies SST record that correlates with instrumental SST even more strongly (p < 0.0001) than the individual corals. Mean annual and boreal summer interspecies SST correlate significantly with North Atlantic SST indices (p < 0.05), demonstrating the ability to capture regional, long‐term SST trends in the North Atlantic. Spatial correlation maps of boreal winter interspecies SST to instrumental SST and geopotential height anomalies reveal coherent spatial patterns linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our findings suggest that Colpophyllia natans has enormous potential as a new paleoclimate archive for reconstructing temporal and spatial SST variability in the tropical Atlantic.

An Integrated View of Organic Biomarker‐Based Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Subarctic Pacific Since the Last Ice Age

AbstractThe phase relationships of sea surface temperature (SST) changes between the North Pacific and North Atlantic during deglacial millennial‐scale climate events have been of great interest. However, uncertainties remain partly due to the sparsity of deglacial SST records in the North Pacific. This study presents a new high‐resolution ‐SST record spanning the entire last deglaciation from core LV63‐41‐2 retrieved from the Northwestern Pacific off the Kamchatka Peninsula, which allows us to explore regional SST change patterns and associated driving mechanisms by compiling previously published SST data in the subarctic Pacific. The subarctic Pacific SST changes during the Bølling‐Allerød and Younger Dryas show in‐phase relationships in response to the North Atlantic SST variations, suggesting a dominant control of atmospheric teleconnections between both oceans. During Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) when the North Atlantic exhibited significant cooling, the subarctic Pacific SST developments are complex, showing gradual warming from the Last Glacial Maximum to HS1 in the Northwestern Pacific and cooling at the onset of HS1 in the Northeastern Pacific. We suggest that the inconsistent phase responses resulted from the combined effects of multiple processes, which involve an enhanced poleward advection of warm subtropical waters, cold meltwater inputs from the retreating Cordilleran Ice Sheet into the Northeastern Pacific, and a persistent La Niña‐like state in the tropical Pacific.

Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s

IntroductionA subdecadal (i.e. , three-year running mean) variation over the tropical Pacific is very distinctively observed in the 2000s.Results and methodsHere, we have demonstrated that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic contribute to forming high ocean-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific in the early 2000s by performing partial data assimilation of a global climate model. Low SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic change the Walker circulation, and the associated weakening of the Pacific trade winds raises the equatorial SST on subdecadal timescales. At the same time, a high SST anomaly is also generated in the off-equatorial North Pacific through deepening of the upper ocean thermocline due to an accompanying anticyclonic surface wind anomaly aloft. While the subtropical North Atlantic SSTs may help the subdecadal warming in the equatorial Pacific, the resultant SST anomalies show a one-year delay in the phase transition and are modestly accompanied by ocean thermocline deepening.DiscussionIt roughly follows the IMRaD format.

Combined Effect of the Tropical Indian Ocean and Tropical North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the Tibetan Plateau Precipitation Anomaly in Late Summer

Abstract Precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) depends largely on the atmospheric circulation pattern associated with remote oceanic forcing, while the contribution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in different ocean basins, especially the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), remains unclear. By using multisource data and atmospheric general circulation model, this study reveals the individual and combined effects of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and TNA SSTA on the interannual variability of TP precipitation in late summer (August). During the positive phase of the IOBM, warm SSTAs in the Indian Ocean induce an anomalous anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal (BOBAC) via the Kelvin wave–induced Ekman divergence and a resulting positive precipitation anomaly over the southeastern TP. Simultaneously, an eastward-extending Kelvin wave triggered by the positive TNA SSTA overlaps with that caused by the IOBM, further strengthening the BOBAC. In addition, the Kelvin wave triggered by the TNA SSTA induces anomalous easterlies over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which contribute to the warm Indian Ocean SSTA and thus amplify the IOBM affecting TP precipitation. Moreover, the positive TNA SSTA generates a westward-extending Walker circulation anomaly that is responsible for the suppressed convection over the central Pacific, which in turn triggers a Rossby wave response and further strengthens the BOBAC. As a result, the positive precipitation anomaly over the southeastern TP is strengthened significantly. Particularly, considering the 2–3-month lead time of the IOBM and TNA SSTA, the tropical SSTA can be used as a predictor for the TP precipitation anomaly.

Interdecadal variation in winter precipitation over non-monsoonal Eurasian regions

This study investigated the interdecadal variations in winter precipitation over the nonmonsoonal Eurasian regions (30°-70°N, 0°-80°E) (NER) and possible contributions of the Arctic sea ice for the period 1948‐2019. The dominant mode of the interdecadal variations in winter precipitation over NER (DM_NWPE) features opposite loading over the Mediterranean region and over the northern NER and Central Asia. The positive phase of DM_NWPE with enhanced precipitation over the Mediterranean region and suppressed precipitation over the northern NER and central Asia is associated with positive height anomalies over the high-latitude North Atlantic and Eurasia and negative height anomalies extending from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean to western Eurasia. Increased sea ice in the Barents Sea may promote an atmospheric wave pattern extending to the downstream Eurasian regions, contributing to decreased precipitation over northern NER and Central Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea (BDL) can promote a southeastward atmospheric wave pattern, contributing to enhanced precipitation over the Mediterranean region. The atmospheric response to the Arctic sea ice forcing is confirmed by experiments with a linear baroclinic model. A dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean may contribute to the interdecadal variation in DM_NWPE. Further analysis showed that the Arctic sea ice-DM_NWPE relationship is primarily SST independent and the Arctic sea ice plays a more critical role in DM_NWPE variations than the North Atlantic SST anomalies.

Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet

Abstract Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° to 0.25° in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate.

Pre-monsoon drought variability in the southeastern Loess Plateau over the past 246 years

In recent decades, the Loess Plateau has experienced drying that has had a massive influence on society, ecosystems, and agriculture. However, the limited availability of observed climate data hampers the assessment of continuous drying. In this study, we present a robust tree-ring-width chronology of Chinese Pine with which we reconstructed the pre-monsoon self-calibration Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) for the last 246 years. The reconstruction is derived from cores sampled from two sites over the southeastern Loess Plateau, is reliable and stable, and explains 54.9% of the variance of observed scPDSI over the period 1957–2017. Our reconstruction reveals obvious annual and decadal variations, with an uneven temporal distribution of dry and wet years. Our reconstruction documents the ongoing drying in recent decades. The period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest over the last 246 years, as according to the 11-year moving average series, five of the top ten most severe droughts occurred during this period. Results of spatial correlation analysis and composite analysis suggest that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature may influence pre-monsoon drought variation over the southeastern Loess Plateau by influencing the westerly jet, the height field, and atmospheric vertical motion.

Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies

AbstractThe Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of winter weather and climate variability and predictability in North America and Eurasia, with a downward influence that on average projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While tropospheric circulation anomalies accompanying anomalous vortex states display substantial case‐by‐case variability, understanding the full diversity of the surface signatures requires larger sample sizes than those available from reanalyses. Here, we first show that a large ensemble of seasonal hindcasts realistically reproduces the observed average surface signatures for weak and strong vortex winters and produces sufficient spread for single ensemble members to be considered as alternative realizations. We then use the ensemble to analyze the diversity of surface signatures during weak and strong vortex winters. Over Eurasia, relatively few weak vortex winters are associated with large‐scale cold conditions, suggesting that the strength of the observed cold signature could be inflated due to insufficient sampling. For both weak and strong vortex winters, the canonical temperature pattern in Eurasia only clearly arises when North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are in phase with the NAO. Over North America, while the main driver of interannual winter temperature variability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the stratosphere can modulate ENSO teleconnections, affecting temperature and circulation anomalies over North America and downstream. These findings confirm that anomalous vortex states are associated with a broad spectrum of surface climate anomalies on the seasonal scale, which may not be fully captured by the small observational sample size.

Two Approaches of the Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Affecting the Following July Precipitation over Central China: The Tropical and Extratropical Pathways

Abstract The spring tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North Atlantic are an outstanding regional mode of interannual variability. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets during 1979–2019, this study reveals the relationship and linking mechanism between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST anomalies and the central China July precipitation (CCJP). Results show that the tripole SST anomalies, especially the warm SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), often cause surplus CCJP through the tropical and extratropical pathways. On the one hand, the spring TNA SST warming induces a pan-tropical climate response with the cooling in the central equatorial Pacific and the warming in the Indo-western Pacific until the following July through a series of air–sea interactions, helping maintain an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and transport more warm humid flows to central China. On the other hand, the spring TNA and SNA SST warming persist into the following July and then emanate a wave train extending from the SNA throughout the Eurasian continent to East Asia, which induces an anomalous anticyclone over North China with its southeast flank transporting more cold air to central China. The warm humid flows from the south against the cold air from the north are conductive to the local ascending motion, favoring the increased CCJP. Our results highlight both the tropical and extratropical teleconnection pathways of the North Atlantic SST anomalies affecting the CCJP. This suggests an important seasonal predictor of the regional climate. Significance Statement July is the peak rainy month of central China, with heavy precipitation occurring frequently and often causing serious impacts on the local production and livelihood of millions of people. This study finds that the spring tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in North Atlantic induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation can exert significant impacts on the following July precipitation over central China through both the tropical and extratropical pathways. This improves our understanding of the causes of the surplus July precipitation over central China and has important implications for the seasonal predictability of the regional climate.

Influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on decadal variability of the July precipitation in north China

AbstractThe north China July precipitation (NCJP) accounts for the largest proportion of annual total precipitation in north China and displays a significant decadal variability of a cycle about 20‐year at least from the past 40 years. There is a significant negative correlation between the July northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NNASST) and NCJP on decadal scale. When the detrended July NNASST anomaly is in negative phase, the NCJP anomaly is in positive phase, and vice versa. We present the coupled oceanic–atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the July NNASST influences on NCJP decadal variability via the Eurasian decadal teleconnection (EAT) pattern: the NNASST stimulates the EAT pattern which regulates circulation anomalies in north China and its surrounding regions, and finally regulates precipitation anomalies in north China by influencing the local water vapour transport. In addition, a preliminary analysis about the causes of the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 indicates that the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 is not just the decadal role of the NNASST on NCJP, may be the combined influence of the WPSH in the northeastern of north China, the abnormal high pressure in the northwest and the low‐pressure cyclone in the south in the rainy decadal background.

Exploring the circum-global teleconnection—Indian summer monsoon interactions in the interannual and multidecadal timescales

The Northern hemispheric circum global teleconnection (CGT) pattern is thought to be maintained by two main forcings—viz-diabatic heating associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and barotropic instability generation over the jet exit region over the North Atlantic. The CGT and ISM impacts one another through the circulation responses over West central Asia (WCA). In this study we revisit the CGT-ISM interactions focusing on the WCA region and try to understand whether the downstream impact of CGT on ISM dominates over the ISM feedback on CGT. Analysis indicates that the Atlantic forced CGT responses play a lead role in modulating the ISM in the interannual timescale, by modulating the upper-level anticyclones over WCA and in turn affecting the ISM easterly vertical wind shear. Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is a major driver of ISM variability in the multi-decadal time scale and the AMO is associated with an arching wave-train of teleconnection across Eurasia. Our analysis indicates significant modulation of WCA anomalies by the AMO in the multi-decadal time scale, implying that the Atlantic-CGT-WCA-ISM pathway of teleconnection has a low frequency counterpart. We further demonstrate that the observed out of phase relationship between AMO and ISM in the recent decades, may be attributed to the relatively stronger high latitude warming over the north Atlantic during the recent AMO warm phase. The equivalent barotropic responses to the extra-tropical north Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies alter the entire downstream teleconnection pattern producing cyclonic anomalies over WCA and in turn weakening the ISM.

Potential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: A source for seasonal predictability?

This study investigates the link between large-scale variability modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could trigger the development of anomalous distribution patterns of Chl-a in spring in northern Alboran. This anomalous feature of Chl-a is, in turn, associated with the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place in northern Alboran at that time of the year. The skill of the related SST signals, over the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific, as predictors of the aforementioned Chl-a response in Alboran, has also been assessed through a statistical prediction model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Our results confirm the predictive skill of ENSO to realistically estimate the coastal Chl-a concentration in spring in northern Alboran. In particular, during the El Niño/La Niña years, this Chl-a response can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. On the other hand, the tropical North Atlantic SSTs allow to significantly predict, up to 7 months in advance, the Chl-a concentration in spring offshore, in particular by the north of the Western and the Eastern Alboran gyres. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near‐Term Climate Prediction

AbstractSince model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state‐of‐the‐art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine‐learning‐based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre‐industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

Customized sea‐surface temperature indicators linking to streamflow at different timescales

AbstractInvestigation of SST–streamflow connectivity unravels the large‐scale climate influences that may have a potential role in modulating local hydrological components. Most studies exploring this relationship only focus on a single timescale; however, various atmospheric and oceanic phenomena occur at different temporal scales, which must be considered. This study examines the association of sea surface temperature (SST) and streamflow in Germany, divided into three regions, viz. Alpine, Atlantic and Continental, at timescales ranging from seasonal to interannual by integrating wavelet transform and complex network techniques. Wavelet transform is used to decompose the time series into multiple frequency signals. The network theory identifies the spatial connections for the 99 percentile correlation coefficient value based on these decomposed signals. The degree centrality metric is used to evaluate the characteristics of the spatially embedded networks. Our results re‐establish known SST regions that have a potential connection with the various streamflow regions of Germany. Spatial patterns that resemble the North Atlantic SST tripole‐like pattern is predominant for Alpine streamflow regions at finer timescale. Equatorial Atlantic Mode regions observed for Atlantic streamflow at interannual timescale and Vb weather system connected regions in the Mediterranean Sea have appeared for all the streamflow regions of Germany. Besides, continental streamflow regions exhibited combined characteristics of the Alpine and Atlantic streamflow spatial patterns. In addition to the above regions, we also identify the scale‐specific patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions at different timescales.

Multidecadal Changes in Zonal Displacement of Tropical Pacific MJO Variability Modulated by North Atlantic SST

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits the most vigorous activity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the boreal winter. In this study, we find the interbasin connection between the tropical Pacific MJO activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the interdecadal time scale. Accompanied with the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the enhanced MJO variability (i.e., larger amplitude of 20–90-day convection) tends to extend eastward into the central tropical Pacific (20°S–0°, 170°E–150°W), while the vigorous MJO variability is confined to the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the positive phase of AMO. The eastward displacement of MJO convection into the central tropical Pacific during the negative AMO phase is supported by the increased moist static energy and low-level moisture tendencies there when the low-frequency background (>90 days) westerly transports the moisture perturbation [] and the MJO-associated easterly perturbation transports the background moisture [] toward the central tropical Pacific. This suggests that the interdecadal changes in zonal displacement of MJO activity over the tropical Pacific are closely linked with the impacts of AMO on the background flow and moisture condition over the central tropical Pacific. The results of coupled model sensitivity experiments and preindustrial simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) support the observational findings.

Winter North Atlantic SST as a Precursor of Spring Eurasian Wildfire

AbstractBoreal fires considerably influence carbon release and air quality, but its occurrence mechanisms need to be explored. This study investigated the influence of winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on spring Eurasian wildfire using single value decomposition method. Two possible pathways link such time‐lag phenomena. The anomalous SST pattern in winter can persist to spring, resulting in a significant high air‐pressure anomaly over southeastern Siberia, which corresponds to less‐than‐normal precipitation and enhanced aridity conditions and the increasing wildfire risk. Meanwhile, there are simultaneously negative snow cover anomalies over southeastern Siberia during winter which is closely related to the winter SSTs. Such snow anomalies persist from winter to spring, leading to negatively anomalous soil moisture. Both pathways provide a favorable environment for wildfire activities. This study implies that the winter North Atlantic SST could be a robust driver and potential precursor for spring wildfire prediction over southeastern Siberia.