North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Climatic oscillations and sovereign debt crises

I present the case for the relationship between climatic oscillations and sovereign debt crisis between 1970 and 2018. I find strong empirical evidence of a relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the incidence of Sovereign Debt Crises. Additionally, the combination of the El Nino Oscillation with the Indian Dipole, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific North American Pattern are associated with droughts that contributed to Sovereign Debt Crises.

Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability.

Morphology and internal structure of small-scale washovers formed in the coastal zone of the semi-enclosed tideless basin, Gulf of Gdańsk, Baltic Sea

This study explores the morphological features and internal structure of small-scale washovers along the south-eastern Baltic Sea coast, providing insights into these most widespread yet often neglected deposits in the recent research of geomorphological and sedimentary record of storm surges. A 15-year-long record of morphological changes of the coast was acquired from regional orthophotos to analyse their geometry and spatial characteristics. Sedimentological analyses comprising a description of deposits, grain size and shape analyses, and Ground Penetrating Radar profiling were undertaken to investigate the internal structure of washovers. The formation of washovers appeared to be correlated with the average winter NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index. The study revealed different scaling relationships of selected spatial parameters in two coastal settings and extended previously hypothesized relationships of length-area, area-volume, and length-volume. The internal structure of washovers is defined by low-angle planar cross-stratification and horizontal stratification, both disrupted by small troughs. Grain-size data indicated extremely short transport of dune and beach sediments, lately deposited in the form of washovers. The study proves that in all domains, the geomorphological characteristics of washovers are scalable, despite the different coastal settings, and even small-scale washovers fit the existing development models.

Causes of extreme events revealed by Rényi information transfer.

Information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality principle, based on evaluation of conditional mutual information, also known as transfer entropy (CMI/TE), is redefined in the framework of Rényi entropy (RCMI/RTE). Using numerically generated data with a defined causal structure and examples of real data from the climate system, it is demonstrated that RCMI/RTE is able to identify the cause variable responsible for the occurrence of extreme values in an effect variable. In the presented example, the Siberian High was identified as the cause responsible for the increased probability of cold extremes in the winter and spring surface air temperature in Europe, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and blocking events can induce shifts of the whole temperature probability distribution.

Multidecadal variability from ocean to atmosphere in the North Atlantic: Perturbation potential energy as the bridge

Abstract The North Atlantic Ocean forcings are considered an important origin of the North Atlantic atmospheric multidecadal variability. Here we reveal the energetics mechanisms of the phenomenon using the perturbation potential energy (PPE) theory. Supporting the previous model studies, a cyclic pattern involving the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is observed: positive AMO phase (AMO+, similarly hereafter) →NAT−→AMO−→NAT+, with a phase lag of approximately 15~20 years. An atmospheric mode characterized by basin-scale sea level pressure anomaly in the North Atlantic is associated with the AMO, which is termed the North Atlantic uniformity (NAU). The AMO+ induces positive uniform PPE anomalies over the ocean through precipitation heating, leading to decreased energy conversion to perturbation kinetic energy (PKE) and a large-scale anomalous cyclone. For the NAT+, tripolar precipitation anomalies result in tripolar PPE anomalies. Anomalous energy conversions occur where the PPE anomaly gradient is large, explained by an energy balance derived from thermal wind relationship. The PKE around 15°N and 50°N (25°N and 75°N) increases (decreases), forming the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone at subtropical and subpolar region, respectively, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The reverse holds for the NAT− and AMO−. As the phases of the ocean modes alternate, the energetics induce the NAU−, NAO−, NAU+, and NAO+ sequentially. In the multidecadal cycle, the accumulated energetics process is related to delayed effect, and the difference in variance explanation between the NAU and NAO is attributed to the feedback mechanisms.

The signature of the main modes of climatic variability as revealed by the Jenkinson‐Collison classification over Europe

AbstractThe Jenkinson‐Collison Weather Typing (JC‐WT) method uses sea‐level pressure gradients to create 27 types based on the geostrophic flow and vorticity around any extratropical target location. Typically, JC‐WTs are applied over specific locations or limited domains, thus hampering the understanding of the impact of large‐scale mechanisms on regional climate. This study explores the links between regional climate variability, as represented by the JC‐WTs, and large‐scale phenomena, to describe the synoptic‐scale variability in the North Atlantic‐European region and evaluate the JC‐WT methodology. Large‐scale circulation is here characterized by major atmospheric low‐frequency modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian teleconnection indices, and by atmospheric blockings. Results show that JC‐WTs coherently capture the spatial and temporal variability of the large‐scale modes and yields a characteristic response to blocking events. Overall, our results underpin the exploratory potential of this method for the analysis of the near‐surface circulation. These findings endorse the use of JC‐WTs and support the reliability and utility of the JC‐WT classification for process‐based model assessments and model selection, a crucial task for climate impact studies.

Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan

This study comprehensively evaluates monsoon variability and its large-scale drivers in Pakistan, a country often affected by extreme monsoon events leading to destructive flooding. Utilizing the Monotonic Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test, we analyzed trends in seven indicators of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) from 1961 to 2017 across Pakistan and its homogeneous climatic regions. The wavelet coherence method further allowed us to probe the connection between EPEs and key climate indices such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the time-frequency domain. Our findings indicate a significant increase in all EPEs across Pakistan, particularly in the monsoon region (R-II) from 1961 to 2017, with a noticeable decline post-1980s. The findings revealed a significant increase in EPEs in the whole country from 1961 to 1989 to 1990–2017, with a dominant change in the monsoon region during 1990–2017. In terms of climate indices combinations, IOD + ISM showed the highest coherences (>0.65), while ENSO+IOD + ISM and ENSO+IOD + PDO displayed coherences >0.81 and > 0.79, respectively, across the entire country. The multi-linear regression (MLR) model analysis drivers indicate that IOD and ENSO are the leading drivers of changes in monsoon EPEs in the whole country, whereas the core monsoon region of Pakistan also showed a strong influence from AMO and NAO in tandem with ENSO and IOD. The overall increase in EPEs over Pakistan are mainly associated with the indices from the Pacific Ocean, especially IOD, ENSO and PDO and with their various combinations. Our study reveals the variations in EPEs across Pakistan, yielding insights that could inform water resource management strategies and disaster prevention measures.

Unusually low dust activity in North Africa in June 2023: Causes, impacts and future projections

Dust activity during the pre-monsoon season in Africa has an impact on the monsoon circulation and the Atlantic hurricane season. During early June 2023 the atmosphere was relatively clear over West Africa and the eastern tropical Atlantic, in contrast with the dustier June 2020. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation suppressed dust lifting, with an equatorward shifted African Easterly Jet limiting its downstream advection. On the other hand, dust accumulated in the atmosphere over northeastern Africa, with the negative dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) anomalies over western Africa and the positive anomalies over eastern Africa more than two standard deviations away from the climatological mean. The lack of dust led to an up to 55 W m−2 increase in the surface downward shortwave radiation flux and a 35 W m−2 decrease in the longwave flux, and is in line with the record-breaking sea surface temperatures over the eastern tropical Atlantic and the active start to the Atlantic hurricane season. In order to explore future projections of DAOD, a multi-model ensemble (MME) is constructed from 29 models that integrate the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It captures the positive trend in the June DAOD over the eastern tropical Atlantic during 1980–2014, although the amplitude is roughly a factor of six smaller than the 0.0017 year−1 in the reanalysis dataset. The CMIP6 MME projects a further increase in DAOD in the region at a rate of up to 0.0003 year−1 in the most extreme climate change scenario for 2066–2100, which is comparable to that seen during the historical period, even though the mean values are projected to decrease by 0.03–0.06. While lower dust loadings may lead to improved air quality, they will likely further fuel pre-season and early season storms in the North Atlantic, which have become more frequent in recent decades.

Spatiotemporal variability and underlying large‐scale atmospheric mechanisms causing the change in the Black Sea surface temperature and associated extreme precipitation events in the northeastern of Turkiye

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) has an important local and remote influence on global climate through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture. As a result of climate forcing, significant changes occur in the SSTs, which result in many natural disasters such as supercharged storms, higher wind speeds, heavier precipitation and flooding. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and underlying atmospheric mechanisms of the Black Sea (BLS) surface temperature. For this purpose, National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) high‐resolution SST data (0.25°), which were verified with buoy observations, were used for the period 1982–2021. To investigate the circulation impacts, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) phases and SSTs of the western BLS (WBLS) and eastern BLS (EBLS) was analysed. According to the results, SST values increased from 1.64°C (in winter) to 2.52°C (in summer) during the 40‐year period. Significant SST increases are shown in the EBLS during the summer and fall months. Statistically significant negative correlations (p < 0.05) were found between EA/WR and winter (r = −0.57) and summer (r = −0.56) SSTs in the EBLS. During winter, surface high located in the eastern Anatolia causes southerly winds, which blows from the terrestrial areas to the EBLS and result in above‐normal SST values. During summer (under negative EA/WR phases), the Azores high‐pressure centre extends to the Balkan Peninsula and WBLS and as a consequence, a significant amount of moisture associated with high sea surface temperature (>27°C, above‐normal 2.0°C) develops low‐level moisture convergence. Proper synoptic conditions, strong instability conditions between the surface and upper levels, and orographic forcing enable the occurrence of convective cloud cells. The movement of these cells to the northeastern part of Turkiye by strong northwesterly winds causes extreme precipitation and associated flash‐flood events in a limited area where land–sea interaction occurs (i.e., Artvin, Rize and Hopa provinces of Turkiye).

Sensitivity of Easterly QBO’s Boreal Winter Teleconnections and Surface Impacts to SSWs

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO.

Late-Holocene environment evolution revealed by multi-proxy analyses of peat sequence in the Sawuer Mountains, northern Xinjiang of China

The Sawuer Mountains, located in the western Junggar Basin within northern Xinjiang of China, are considered as a distinct watershed between the Xinjiang inland water system and the Arctic Ocean water system. The suitable climate has fostered the widespread development of peat in the Sawuer Mountains, but our understanding about peat development and their environmental evolution remains limited. This study conducted the detailed investigation of peat developments and their environmental evolution in the Sawuer Mountains inferred from two cores using multi-proxies (peat accumulation rates, loss-on-ignition, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, humification and n-alkanes). The dating results present that peat began to develop at ∼3.1 cal kyr BP. The multi-proxies reveal that the climate exhibited a dry environment at ∼3.1-∼2.24 cal kyr BP and an increasing moisture at ∼2.24-∼1.42 cal kyr BP with the past 1420 years being characterized by an overall drying trend, agreeing well with other records from northern Xinjiang. The moisture reconstruction was both modulated by the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase and the solar forcing in the late Holocene.

Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain

ABSTRACT Quantifying the tendency of flood events to demonstrate clustering in time and space is crucial for flood risk assessments. We analyse the temporal (TC) and spatial (SC) coherence of floods in 554 catchments over Great Britain. TC was assessed using the dispersion-index and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson regression, with both methods applied to aggregation windows of 1–5 years. SC was investigated using the flood susceptibility index. Results show that i) most of the UK peak floods are overdispersed and ii) a positive relationship exists between winter mean North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies and the annual number of peak floods across western Britain. The susceptibility to widespread floods is higher for the southeast parts of Britain and for the Clyde-Forth valleys, and it increases with catchment permeability and with the influence of lakes/reservoirs. These findings are relevant to enhance existing flood hazard estimation methods and, in turn, will lead to more realistic flood risk quantification.

Comparative analysis of SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices for assessing spatio-temporal variation of drought in Türkiye

AbstractThis research presents a comprehensive drought analysis using climate data obtained from 219 homogeneously distributed meteorological stations in Türkiye between 1991 and 2022. In this context, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) drought indices were used and comparative analysis was made. Türkiye. The study demonstrates that below-normal precipitation over extended periods and increasing temperatures have contributed to the increased frequency of meteorological drought events. Türkiye's topographic conditions, particularly its location in the Mediterranean basin, significantly influence drought occurrences. It is noted that over the past 20 years, Türkiye has been trending towards drier conditions, with rising temperatures reinforcing this trend. The study observes that the moderate drought class range is the most frequently recurring in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI methods utilized. Regarding atmospheric conditions affecting the climate in Türkiye, it is observed that increased drought severity stands out prominently in years when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. During these years, increased drought severity is evident in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices, particularly in winter and autumn, while a wide area experiences drought effects in the summer months. Long-term analyses emphasize that drought periods occur less frequently but have more prolonged impacts, attributed to variations in precipitation patterns from year to year and the influence of rising temperatures due to global climate change. The potential future increase in drought in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change and Türkiye's vulnerability to this situation could have adverse effects on water resources, food security, energy sources, and ecosystems.

Climate change and human impacts on aquatic communities at Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece

The Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece has experienced extensive human modification since the 20th century, both on the surrounding land and in the aquatic environment. To examine human impacts and disentangle climatic from anthropogenic changes, we present a suite of biomarker records that span the past two centuries (∼1790–2011). Specifically, we use terrigenous (n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and phytosterols) and aquatic (dinosterol, brassicasterol, cholesterol, and stigmasterol) biomarkers to document changes in nutrient inputs, combustion, and algal productivity. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, aquatic communities respond to temperature, forced mainly by solar irradiance and volcanic activity, and precipitation, controlled largely by summer and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns that determine freshwater runoff. PAHs illustrate the acceleration of coal combustion during the 1800s, and declining concentrations since the 1950s correspond to the implementation of emission controls and reductions in rainfall that likely inhibited PAH transport. As human pressures increased in the late 1900s and water column anoxia grew, the absence of a clear human waste and eutrophication signal suggests that other factors also contributed to limited oxygen availability. Overall, environmental degradation of the late 20th and early 21st centuries is clear and can be attributed to a combination of especially arid conditions and human interferences that altered lagoon hydrography, trophic state, and aquatic community composition.

Resolving Weather Fronts Increases the Large‐Scale Circulation Response to Gulf Stream SST Anomalies in Variable‐Resolution CESM2 Simulations

AbstractCanonical understanding based on general circulation models (GCMs) is that the atmospheric circulation response to midlatitude sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies is weak compared to the larger influence of tropical SST anomalies. However, the ∼100‐km horizontal resolution of modern GCMs is too coarse to resolve strong updrafts within weather fronts, which could provide a pathway for surface anomalies to be communicated aloft. Here, we investigate the large‐scale atmospheric circulation response to idealized Gulf Stream SST anomalies in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6) simulations with 14‐km regional grid refinement over the North Atlantic, and compare it to the responses in simulations with 28‐km regional refinement and uniform 111‐km resolution. The highest resolution simulations show a large positive response of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to positive SST anomalies in the Gulf Stream, a 0.4‐standard‐deviation anomaly in the seasonal‐mean NAO for 2°C SST anomalies. The lower‐resolution simulations show a weaker response with a different spatial structure. The enhanced large‐scale circulation response results from an increase in resolved vertical motions with resolution and an associated increase in the influence of SST anomalies on transient‐eddy heat and momentum fluxes in the free troposphere. In response to positive SST anomalies, these processes lead to a stronger and less variable North Atlantic jet, as is characteristic of positive NAO anomalies. Our results suggest that the atmosphere responds differently to midlatitude SST anomalies in higher‐resolution models and that regional refinement in key regions offers a potential pathway to improve multi‐year regional climate predictions based on midlatitude SSTs.

Wavelet-based analysis of hydro-climatic and vegetation dynamics in heterogeneous agro-climatic zones of East Africa

ABSTRACT Natural and human-induced factors profoundly affect agricultural crop production in East Africa, sparking ongoing debates about their relative significance. This study investigates the impact of localized hydro-climatic variables like precipitation, temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and water deficit on crop production. Additionally, it examines climate oscillations such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Employing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) metric, analysis focuses on four climatic zones, ranging from arid to humid. Results suggest that the dominant periodicities for NDVI and hydro-climatic factors are annual (8-16 months) and intra-annual (4-8 months), while circulation indices exhibit inter-annual and inter-decadal periodicity. The study reveals that vegetation dynamics are more sensitive to annual and intra-annual fluctuations in hydro-climatic factors compared to inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations in circulation indices. The bi-variate wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis reveals that precipitation and ENSO are the most significant factors explaining vegetation variability, while multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) analysis demonstrates that all variables contribute significantly to NDVI variability. This research underscores the importance of wavelet techniques in deciphering complex relationships between hydro-climatic factors and crop production, with implications for agricultural management and policy in East Africa.

Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system

AbstractBritain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias‐corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature‐related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather‐related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present‐day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short‐lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions.

Non-stationary low flow frequency analysis under climate change

Analysis of low river flows provides important information for effective management of water resources in a region. Despite the critical importance of understanding low flow dynamics, there is a gap in the literature regarding the use of non-stationary models to analyze low flow data under climate change in Turkey. In this research, low flow series from 80 measuring stations in Turkey are investigated by employing both stationary and non-stationary models based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). For constructing non-stationary models, 31 explanatory variables consisting of time, precipitation, temperature and atmospheric oscillation indices were used to model the parameters of the chosen distributions. The results show that stationary models are more successful at 7 stations, while non-stationary models are more successful at 73 stations. Comparisons between non-stationary models showed that for most stations, the best performing models were non-stationary models with annual precipitation as covariates. In addition, successful results were obtained when Western Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices were used as explanatory variables. Additionally, this study investigated 20 and 50-year return levels by fitting the non-stationary frequency distribution models for low flows over historical and projection periods under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. GAMLSS incorporated annual total precipitation, which is the most effective explanatory variable for low flows, as a covariate, and thus changes in low flows were analyzed. The results show that decreases are expected in low flows, except for the stations in the upper Euphrates basin compared to the historical period.

Labrador Coastal Current and productivity variations offshore Nain (Nunatsiavut) during the late Holocene

The Labrador Coastal Current (LCC) transports cold and fresh waters of Arctic origin towards the North Atlantic and has a strong influence on the coastal ecosystems and climate of eastern Canada. Here, we present a multi-decadally resolved record of changes in sea-surface and near-bottom conditions of the LCC during the last 3000 years based on the analysis of biogenic tracers (organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts, carbon, and nitrogen geochemistry) and sedimentary content (sortable silt, magnetic susceptibility, elemental ratios) in the upper 2 m of sediments in a core retrieved offshore Nain, Nunatsiavut. Our data reveal multi-centennial bottom flow strength variability in the LCC, with strong linkages to changes in regional ocean circulation patterns. At about 2100- and 550-years BP, the sedimentological and biogenic tracer data suggest changes in the LCC bottom current intensity (decline and strengthening, respectively) that coincide with shifts in the persistent mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our proxy data suggests increased biological production during the last 500 years compared to the preceding 2500 years, possibly reflecting a gradual decrease length of the sea-ice season. The data show a decline in the LCC strength during periods of increased polar water influence identified in previous palaeoceanographic studies conducted further north, which may be attributed to the trapping of freshwater in sea ice during these periods. Our results highlight the dynamical oceanographic and atmospheric factors that influence the LCC and the coastal ecosystems along its path and confirm that the processes in Baffin Bay impact the Labrador Shelf oceanography.

Climate variability in northern Africa during the late Holocene: A multiproxy perspective from El-Beida Lake (Wadi El-Natrun, Egypt)

North Africa is a key region hosting ca. 230 million people that are dependent on climate to maintain their subsistence through agriculture. Because of the current global changes, understanding the mechanisms behind the climate variations that occurred in this region is extremely important. To contribute to a more accurate modelling projection, we reconstructed the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental variations from the Meghalayan (∼1,500 ka) to recent using palynological and geochemical data from a sediment core from El-Beida Lake (Wadi El-Natrun area, north Western Desert of Egypt). North Africa underwent significant shifts in climatic conditions forced by different drivers since the Roman Warm Period (RWP) until recent. Our sediment core record indicates that this region experienced a persistent dry and warm climate during the RWP until the first half of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). The positive North Atlantic Oscillation was the main driver for controlling the precipitation pattern and pushing the precipitation towards central and north Europe and favoring the dry climate in North Africa during the RWP. The dry and slightly cold conditions in the study area during the Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) can be ascribed to the coupling between the more southward position of the Azores Front and the weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Northern Africa showed variable climatic conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) due to the complicated thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. During this time, the Eastern Mediterranean experienced a cold or partially cold MCA that may be extended to the present study area. An abrupt change to humid and cold climatic conditions occurred in northern Africa during the Little Ice Age (LIA) due to large-scale processes like the ENSO and NAO. The SST warming of the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA), significantly influenced by ENSO, causes the position of the Atlantic ITCZ to be shifted northward affecting precipitation in Africa.