Comparative analysis of SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices for assessing spatio-temporal variation of drought in Türkiye

Abstract

AbstractThis research presents a comprehensive drought analysis using climate data obtained from 219 homogeneously distributed meteorological stations in Türkiye between 1991 and 2022. In this context, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) drought indices were used and comparative analysis was made. Türkiye. The study demonstrates that below-normal precipitation over extended periods and increasing temperatures have contributed to the increased frequency of meteorological drought events. Türkiye's topographic conditions, particularly its location in the Mediterranean basin, significantly influence drought occurrences. It is noted that over the past 20 years, Türkiye has been trending towards drier conditions, with rising temperatures reinforcing this trend. The study observes that the moderate drought class range is the most frequently recurring in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI methods utilized. Regarding atmospheric conditions affecting the climate in Türkiye, it is observed that increased drought severity stands out prominently in years when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. During these years, increased drought severity is evident in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices, particularly in winter and autumn, while a wide area experiences drought effects in the summer months. Long-term analyses emphasize that drought periods occur less frequently but have more prolonged impacts, attributed to variations in precipitation patterns from year to year and the influence of rising temperatures due to global climate change. The potential future increase in drought in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change and Türkiye's vulnerability to this situation could have adverse effects on water resources, food security, energy sources, and ecosystems.