Normative Forecasting Research Articles

The Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems future development

The relevance of the article is due to the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development normative forecasting need in order to achieve a superiority over the enemy. One of the futures` main provisions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development has been outlined. Futures have been developed by using a modified method of "branches" as a component of foresight (scenario forecasting). Elements of SWOT analysis and the cognitive-dynamic method of forecasting were also applied in the part regarding normative forecasting. The future of the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development is presented as the desired version of the development of these systems in the future, using cause-and-effect logic. Within its framework, the main trends in the development of unmanned systems in the leading countries of the World were considered. The list and content of the main stages of development of futures according to the modified method of "branches" are presented. The forecasting horizon is defined. The author's view on the ecosystem of unmanned systems that has apeared in Ukraine is offered. The results of the analysis of the stakeholders of the considered ecosystem are presented with the distribution of their influence and interest according to the Mendelov and Johnson matrices. Based on the analysis of external and internal factors that will influence the development of unmanned systems, as well as the future operating environment, the key results that must be achieved to realize the main development goal and the main ways (actions, influences) to achieve them are determined. The key results cover two main areas - as organizational and technological and as combat also. In addition, the priority directions for the unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine development by components, levels, types and technical aspects have been determined. The proposed futures may be used both as for more detailed regulatory forecasting of the unmanned systems development, for example, when developing of a corresponding foresight, as during the program documents (strategies, concepts, etc.) development or priorities of the State's military and technical policy determination.

The productivity assessment of ameliorative agrolandscape in Lazo district of Khabarovsk territory

The article discusses the possibility of organizing a reclamation agricultural landscape on the territory of Lazo district, Khabarovsk Territory. The purpose of the work is to assess the feasibility of forming a melioration agricultural landscape when planning the construction of an open drainage reclamation system. The work contains analytical methods, calculation of productivity indicators of the reclaimed agricultural landscape; normative forecasting of agricultural and economic indicators of the project for the construction of a reclamation system, etc. The scientific works of the Russian and foreign authors were analyzed in this paper, and the feasibility of the construction of an open drainage reclamation system in the Lazo district was studied as well. The article describes the main natural and climatic characteristics of the area where the reclamation system is being built, and calculates such productivity indicators of the reclamation agricultural landscape as the yield of crop production per hectare of reclaimed lands, the coefficient of land use, and the potential productivity of a hectare of irrigated/drained area on reclaimed lands.

ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING METHOD OF STATE STABILITY

In the article, the authors propose a method for assessing and forecasting the stability of the state. The relevance of the work is due to the complex military and political processes taking place in and around Ukraine, attempts at large-scale interference in internal affairs (including by military means), attempts to destroy Ukrainian statehood and make the country under total control, and the lack of a methodological apparatus that can be used to assess the state's ability to withstand external and internal threats and preserve its own identity and structural integrity. The authors analyze the content of the concept of "stability", offer their own interpretation of this term and identify the factors that significantly affect it. In accordance with these factors, the article presents a hierarchical system of indicators consisting of two main groups characterizing the ability of the state to withstand internal and external influences, and contains indicators that allow to assess the military capabilities of the country, the level of conflict potential, taking into account ethnic and religious problems, the state of its economy, social and political spheres, the ability of law enforcement agencies to counter internal threats, energy security and the level of corruption. Subject of research. Assessment and forecasting of state stability. Methodology. In order to obtain functions that explicitly describe the dependence of the state's stability on lower-level indicators, the proposed approach involves the use of the theory of experimental design to form a training sample for each of the groups of indicators, followed by its processing using the method of group consideration of arguments. This approach is demanding on the level of competence of experts, but it allows obtaining dependencies that can be used to directly calculate the value of the state's stability indicators, which is of great importance in the preparation and decision-making on ensuring Ukraine's national security. The authors propose an integrated approach to forecasting the level of stability, which will make it possible to obtain both exploratory and normative forecasts, and this will increase the validity of decisions on ensuring the national and military security of the State. The purpose. The article outlines the main provisions of the method of assessing and forecasting the stability of the state, which allows obtaining a numerical assessment of stability and forecasting its development over time, taking into account a wide range of indicators covering both civilian and military spheres of the state, and also allows taking into account possible external influences (destructive or positive). Results. The article presents the system of indicators by which it is proposed to assess the stability of the state, the general procedure for calculations using the proposed method, and some results of a numerical experiment which confirmed the efficiency of the proposed approach, its sufficiently high accuracy and clarity of the results obtained. The calculations show that Ukraine's overall level of stability has declined significantly since 2014, but there is reason to believe that the state has managed to maintain it and even gradually improve it amid large-scale aggression.

ВДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ РОЗВИТКУ СФЕРИ СПОРТУ В УМОВАХ УКРАЇНИ: CОЦІОЛОГІЧНЕ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ

The purpose of the article was to record and track, based on a set of indicators, the opinion of experts regarding the practice of using the "sports region" effect to improve the development of the field of sports in the conditions of a separate region and Ukraine. Methods. The main method of collecting empirical material is an expert survey using a questionnaire. The methods of extrapolation, exploratory and normative forecasting were used to analyze the obtained statistical material. The results. Taking into account the existence of "sports regions" should be an important part of the strategy for the development of Olympic and non-Olympic sports in Ukraine, as this is confirmed by the support of experts. To achieve this, sports organizations and authorities should develop plans aimed at supporting the development of sports in individual regions. Scientific novelty. The study revealed the peculiarities of the development of the sphere of sports in the conditions of Ukraine. The practical significance. In view of supporting the development of sports that already have long-term and steady success, it is important to provide financial support, infrastructural base and promote the popularization of these sports in the areas where they are most developed. To achieve faster results in sportsmanship, the allocation of resources and support to athletes and teams from regions that already have a high level of achievement should be promoted. Institutions of higher education in the regions of Ukraine should include in the planning of scientific research the analysis of "sports regions" to improve the scientific base and development of sports. Keywords: sport, improvement, development, psychotherapy, sociological research, regions of Ukraine

Methodology of criminal law forecasting

The subject. Criminal law forecasting is a scientifically based analysis of the prospects for the development of criminal law in order to optimize criminal legislation and the practice of its application. Its subject includes: foreseeing the needs of society in the criminal law regulation of public relations, their criminalization and decriminalization; the dynamics of the development of criminal law relations in society, the development of a criminal law concept of combating socially dangerous phenomena for the foreseeable period; foreseeing the consequences of changes in criminal legislation; the presence of real prerequisites for its application; prognostic assessments of the effectiveness of criminal law norms in the process of law-making and law-realization activities; scenarios and models for the implementation of criminal law institutions and norms; technologies for combating criminality in the application of criminal law norms; prospectsfor the development of the science of criminal law itself, taking into account its scientific potential.The purpose of the article is to establish the ideology and main trends in the development of criminal legislation and the practice of its application in post-Soviet Russia, to determine the methodology for the modernization of criminal policy in the new geopolitical conditions.The methodology of research includes axiological and system approaches, determinative analysis, search and normative forecasting, extrapolation, expert assessments, modeling.The main results, scope of application. There are two diametrically opposed ideologies that are of fundamental importance for criminal law and criminal law forecasting: 1) liberal and 2) conservative. The criminal law policy of the Russian Federation has so far developed in line with liberal ideology. Its main goal is to modernize criminal legislation in terms of decriminalizing economic crimes and humanizing the treatment of white-collar criminals. Conservative criminal law policy is based on the methodology of normative forecasting, which is aimed at achieving the desired (for the state and society) results. This methodology is based on a systematic approach. From the standpoint of this approach, the object of criminal law forecasting is an organized system with an extremely complex structure consisting of three subsystems: managing, managed and criminal law norms. The content of each of these subsystems requires corrective action in order to achieve compliance with the traditional axiological scale and common sense. It is also necessary to solve the problem of coordinating criminal law and criminological legislation.Conclusions. Criminal law forecasting allows us to formulate a number of theses that should be the basis for the concept of optimizing the criminal policy of the Russian Federation: (a) rejection of the liberal model of criminal law regulation of public relations, the transition to a conservative model, which should be dominated by state and public, not private interests; (b) recognition of organized economic and official crime as priority objects of criminallegal influence; (c) coordination of criminal-legal and criminological legislation; (d) adoption of the Federal Law "On Combating Organized Crime".

Analysis of the structure of generating capacity and dynamics of electricity consumption in Sredne-Kamchatsky isolated power hub

THE PURPOSE. To examine the features of the location and the overall structure of theSredne-Kamchatskyisolated power hub. To considerthe structure of installed electric capacity and the composition of generating equipment of power plants in the mentioned power hub. To determine the composition and characteristics of the electric grid economy. To analyze and determine the main indicators of electricity consumption and capacity dynamics of the hub. To perform an analysis of the existing balance of power and electric energy, to determine the main technical and economic parameters of the power supply. To consider options for the power supply system development including on the basis of renewable energy sources. METHODS. When solving this problem, we usedmethods of mathematical processing of statistical data and methods of normative forecasting. RESULTS. We considered the special featuresof generating capacities and network infrastructure development,the issues ensuring the long-term and medium-term demand for electric energy and capacity, the formation of stable and favorable conditions for attracting investment in the construction of electric power facilities.The study calculated the current and prospective balances of electricity and capacity in the discussed power hubbased on the analysis of the energy structure of an isolated power unit and the dynamics of electricity consumption. CONCLUSION. Any failure in an isolated system leads to dangerous crisis phenomena and significant economic losses. Thus it is important to provide reliable and efficient power supply to energy isolated territories. The presented comprehensive assessment of the state of the electric power industry in the isolated Sredne-Kamchatsky power plant allows us to predict the prospects for its development within the framework of the overall development of the electric power complex of the Kamchatka Territory.

A Colaboração Premiada no Brasil e na Itália. Análise comparativa da previsão e da aplicação do instituto nesses ordenamentos jurídicos

The study conducted a comparative analysis of the Plea Bargain, between the Brazilian and Italian legal systems, with emphasis on the investigation of crimes committed by criminal organizations, specifying the normative forecasts and the hypotheses of the agreement. We observed relevant points of convergence between the researched systems, notably the validity of the accusatory system and the principle of mandatory criminal action. In Italy, repentance was widely used in the fight against terrorism and mafia-type criminal organizations, while in Brazi, its use was disseminated in relation to white-collar crimes,especially corruption and money laundering.

Improvement of Activities of Strategizing of Social and Economic Development in a Region by Means of Strengthening the Interconnection between Forecasting and Strategic Planning

The importance of strategic management of the socio-economic development of regions in conditions of uncertainty is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this article is to identify the main problems in organizing activities of strategizing and forecasting of social and economic development of a region. The research conducted using the systemic mental and action approach showed that comprehensive strategic planning at the regional level is impossible without normative forecasting and environmental analysis, which state government bodies of the territorial entities of the Russian Federation do not pay sufficient attention to. Such stages of strategizing as forecasting and strategic planning play a major role in the process of strategizing. The article clarifies the concept of strategic management (strategizing) in relation to the socio-economic development of regions. It was found out that the shortcomings of the methodological tools and low level qualification of experts lead to a low quality of the developed forecast documents and management decisions. Suggestions have been deve­loped to support the forecasting of the socio-economic development of the region through the use of qualitative forecasting methods. The proposals include criteria for the selection of experts for the development of forecasts, as well as a conceptual distributed scheme for collecting expert opinions on the prospects for changing various aspects and directions of the socio-economic development of the region.

Цифровое моделирование противодействия контрафакту: возможности и перспективы

Countering counterfeit products protects the health of consumers, improves the quality of life and the competitiveness of the national economy. The turnover of counterfeit products entails a decrease in customs and tax payments, the attractiveness of investments in production and sectors of the economy, interferes with the observance of quality standards, and the construction of an innovative technological economy. Digital techniques expand the possibilities of understanding the trends of the phenomenon under consideration, which is applicable when constructing planning documents. Mathematical modeling methods make it possible to construct appropriate forecasts. To build models, it is proposed to use the provisions of the theory of probability with an emphasis on ensuring the reliability of the results. The indicators of digital models built on the basis of statistical data will be stochastic in nature. This makes it possible to generate digital forecasts that are “calculated” and verified. The use of quantitative models developed by the exact sciences requires correct application when considering issues of social and legal phenomena in order to comply with methodological soundness. For this, the theoretical distribution laws developed by the theory of probability are used. Suggestions for the practical use of the proposed methods for solving counterfeit counterfeiting issues are presented. The main area of application of the proposed digital modeling approaches is the construction of normative forecasts for planning. The main parameters of such plans are quantified. This approach can be applied when drawing up interstate plans and development strategies.

The mechanism of influence of neurotechnologies on the formation of the sixth technological order in the economy and society

the subject of this work is the study of the mechanism of the effect of "neurotech" technologies on the formation of the sixth technological order in engineering; the object of the article is dedicated to the sixth technological order in engineering, the aim is to increase the efficiency of the processes of development of the sixth technological order in mechanical engineering based on the development of the theoretical foundations of neurotechnology in mechanical engineering. For achieving this goal, the following tasks are solved: the study of the concept, content, structural elements of the sixth technological order in post-industrial engineering; the description of the essence and content of neurotechnologies in post-industrial engineering; the development of methods of logical analysis and synthesis of neurotechnologies in post-industrial engineering; the formation of a criteria base for evaluating the effectiveness of the processes of the development of neurotechnological engineering within the sixth technological order. The research methods in the article are synthesis and analysis, logical and historical analysis, heuristic synthesis, system and comparative analysis, search and normative forecasting, expert assessments, the scientific novelty of the article is connected with the study of the appearance of the sixth technological order in mechanical engineering, the mechanism of influence of neurotechnologies on the development of the sixth technological order in post-industrial engineering.

Analysis of complex methods of industry assessment of tourist-recreational potential of territories of the republic of Belarus

The subject of the research is a set of relations that are formed in the process of improving the national system and program of environmental monitoring in the Republic of Belarus. A set of indicators is presented on the basis of which it is possible to com- prehensively assess the state of the ecosystem of any territory in terms of the impact of tourism on the ecosystem. The purpose of the article is to develop scientific, methodological and practical proposals for the applied support of the mechanism for regulating the development of bio-ecotourism in order to develop sectoral conditions for the development of tourism in rural areas as well as the organization of a modern developed infrastructure of sectoral eco-oriented tourism. Methodology of the work. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is a system of both general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge, the fundamental provisions of modern economic and environmental theory and practice. In the scientific research, the following methods were used: monographic, in the formation of approaches, on the use of a set of indicators, on the basis of which it is possible to comprehensively assess the state of ecosystems of any territory from the point of view of tourism to the ecosystem. Results of the work – the applied use of scientific results of improved approaches for the development of the economy of the Republic of Belarus through the implementation of a mechanism for regulating the development of bio-ecotourism is proposed in order to develop sectoral conditions for the development of tourism in rural areas, as well as the organization of a modern developed infrastructure of sectoral eco-oriented tourism. Conclusions. These forecasting methods are most often used in carrying out normative forecasting, which is most important in today's changed conditions, with travel restrictions and delimitations. This scientific approach generalizes and is intended to formalize both bioecological design objects of research and the prospects for creating natural and artificial decorations using the features of reliefs and water areas. Both national systems and programs of environmental monitoring and international programs and research within the framework of the activities of large international organizations are based on the principles listed above (the Berne Convention is an international agreement that contains a provision on the protection of both natural habitats (biotopes) and and specific species of flora and fauna). Key words. Prognostics, Forecasting Subject (JV), Forecasting Object (EP), Formation Patterns, State, Development

Assessing the Learning Administration of Higher Education Institutions by Graduates’ Turn-Out and Learning Outcomes: Theory and Practice

Introduction. This article describes how universities are fulfilling their training assignments. Its relevance is determined by the growing need of teachers to correlate the learning results of specialists-to-be with learning assignments. The aim of the article is to describe a method for assessing the learning management system of higher education institutions by analysing learning outcomes and graduates’ turn-out. Materials and Methods. The study relies on the collection and analysis of the results of specialists’ training between 2015 and 2019. The joint use of the obtained data and methods of normative forecasting and interpolation allowed the authors to calculate and measure the intermediate results relative to the final ones, to build educational trajectories, which made it possible to evaluate the learning management system by dealing with training results and graduates turn-out. Results. For the first time the authors of the article showed that the measured results demonstrated not only the scope of specialists’ training and graduation, but they evaluated management of the educational process and developed necessary management decisions to regulate standards and measures for specialists’ training and graduation according to the specified final results. Discussion and Conclusion. The conclusions contribute to the development of the concept of learning management systems, provided that there are specified final results of the specialists’ graduation. Findings are of interest to the scientific and pedagogical community, professors, teaching staff and leadership of educational institutions.

Development of regional foresight studies between 2000 and 2019: an overview and co-citation analysis

Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies.

Delação Premiada: o valor probatório no processo penal

O presente artigo objetiva analisar o valor probatório da delação premiada no processo penal brasileiro. Utilizando-se do método de pesquisa qualitativo e de uma revisão bibliográfica e jurisprudencial, inicialmente, far-se-á um breve escorço histórico acerca da origem do instituto, de acordo com a legislação americana e italiana, as quais serviram de inspiração ao legislador pátrio. Na sequência, serão objeto de investigação as previsões normativas da colaboração processual no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, a conceituação e a sua natureza jurídica, bem como os requisitos mínimos legais previstos para a sua admissibilidade. A fim de possibilitar melhor compreensão, abordar-se-ão as questões que permeiam a prova no processo penal, desde a sua delimitação conceitual até a atividade de valoração processual. Ato contínuo, a partir de uma análise das aferições internas e externas da prova, discorrer-se-á a respeito do valor probatório da delação premiada no Brasil, à luz da regra de corroboração. Em arremate, tratar-se-á de algumas problemáticas que gravitam em torno do instituto: a (in)constitucionalidade e a questão ética em face da delação premiada. Encerra-se o presente desenvolvimento com a conclusão de que a delação possui valor probatório, podendo, efetivamente, ser utilizada como meio de obtenção de prova para sustentar o édito condenatório de terceiros, desde que, submetida ao crivo do contraditório e da ampla defesa, encontre respaldo nos demais elementos de prova reunidos no processo penal.

Methods for Optimization of Student’s Number in Higher Educational Institutions

Introduction. The article deals with implementation of tasks of specialists’ training by universities. The relevance is determined by a dropout trends in training years. The authors analyze the results of the specialists’ training and graduation; also they determine the goal and objectives of the research. The study purpose is to identify specialists’ training patterns and to develop methods to optimize the students’ number in training years according to the final results. Materials and Methods. Results of training and graduates’ number for 2012-2017 comprised material for the study. An approach to provide management of assignment for higher education professionals training has been developed, and it is the students’ number optimization methodology in years of study according to the final results. It links initial and final results into one line and predicts intermediate results that ensure fulfillment of graduates’ training orders not lower than the established final results. The following general scientific methods are used in the article: compilation, benchmarking, synthesis and normative forecasting. Results. Optimization methodologies in years of education concerning the final results were tested. The findings showed that the final result directly depends on the intermediate results; the students’ number decline can be brought to optimal values if initial and final results are determined and linked with each other. Discussion and Conclusion. The possibility to bring students’ number reduction into line with optimal values is proved theoretically and practically if the forecast of graduation is provided. Thus the forecast of optimal intermediate results is the main link for educational management methods development for specialists’ training tasks. It is an area for further research. The contribution to science consists in the development of methods for predicting the optimal number of students in the year regarding to the final result. The article’s materials will be useful to the permanent composition of professional educational institutions for the development of measures tar geted control in the educational process. Keywords: assignment on specialists’ training, students’ drop out, trends in specialists’ training, specialists’ graduation, optimization of students’ number Acknowledgments: The work was carried out within the research project “Quality management of professional education based on new information technologies”. The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewer.

Direito das águas - trajetória legal, conflitos e participação social

O presente artigo faz uma breve análise da gestão brasileira de recursos hídricos a partir da política nacional de gestão das águas, transitando por aspectos referentes à previsão normativa, à implementação dos instrumentos de gestão, a alguns dos principais conflitos e à participação social realizada por meio de comitês de bacia hidrográfica, que são os parlamentos das águas, conforme indicado no arcabouço legal. Para tanto, foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica que inclui autores clássicos e contemporâneos, leis e resoluções, bem como atas de reuniões de organismos de bacia hidrográfica. Os resultados obtidos destacam que a gestão compartilhada das águas, conforme preconizado no marco legal, ainda precisa superar obstáculos de diferentes naturezas para que, de fato, seja efetivada, visto que a equação entre descentralização do poder e participação social ainda demanda ajustes para um equilíbrio de forças.

FOOD INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FOOD SECURITY OF REGIONS OF UKRAINE

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the food security needs in the regions of Ukraine, as well as the definition of tasks in filling the market with own production products. The obtained results will determine the directions of structural changes in agricultural complexes of the regions and the necessary measures by the public regulatory bodies. Methodology. The research is based on a comparison of results of normative and search forecasts. In developing normative forecasts, the projected population and needs in different types of products according to the norms of rational consumption are taken into account. Search forecasts provide for the definition of a future state of satisfaction with the preservation of existing development trends. The gap between the necessary and projected results determines the task of accelerating growth. In terms of national security, food production should be provided with its own raw material base. Therefore, an analysis of the conditions for the development of livestock and crop production is necessary, which enables to substantiate the directions of systemic changes in agricultural complexes of the regions. In order to ensure positive changes in the structure of agricultural production, strengthening the effectiveness of public regulation on the basis of financial and economic leverage is needed. Results. Regions of Ukraine by territory and population exceed certain countries of the European Union. Significant differences in socio-economic conditions of the regions contribute to the growth of tension in society and migration. The events of recent years indicate the possibility of external interference in the functioning of the regions of Ukraine and the danger of the collapse of cooperative ties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the satisfaction of the immediate needs of the population of each region at the expense of its own production. Among the necessities, food occupies a special place. Complete nutrition is one of the prerequisites for increasing the life expectancy of the population. The development of the production of these goods positively affects the economy, because it provides employment, rapid cash flow, and budget filling. However, food consumption is limited by physiological needs. Therefore, the potential capacity of the food market depends on the demographic structure, population size, and rational consumption standards. According to the results of the study, excessive consumption of bread and potatoes by Ukrainian people and too little consumed meat and dairy products, fruits are detected. During the years of Ukraine’s independence, the share of livestock farming in agricultural complexes of regions has significantly decreased. In plant growing, there are also structural changes in the direction of reducing the forage base and increasing crop areas under technical crops that deplete the land. These changes threaten the irreversible loss of soil fertility. Therefore, governmental stimulation is required not only for the revival of livestock but also for the rational use of sown areas. Practical implications. The results of a comparative assessment of the potential capacity of regional food markets with the current state of satisfaction of the population’s needs will reveal the necessary directions for the development of the food industry and agriculture of the regions. Value/originality. A systematic approach to the formation of plans for the development of the food industry that meets the requirements of food security and the corresponding changes in the ratio of livestock and crop production, the structure of crop areas is proposed. This approach has not only a scientific novelty but also contributes to increasing the positive impact of the food industry on the sustainable development of both individual regions and the country as a whole.

La educación y la universidad en la constitución de 1993

Como este año se cumplen las dos décadas de vigencia de la Constitución Política de 1993, nuestra naciente Facultad de Derecho y Ciencia Política, ha tenido la acertada iniciativa de reunir artículos y ensayos sobre los diferentes aspectos sustantivos y formales, a título de somero balance que ilustre sus bondades, su concordancia con la realidad y su eficacia como norma fundamental del estado.
 En este proyecto, conjugando mi doble especialidad de abogado y profesor, se está contribuyendo con un breve análisis de sus previsiones normativas sobre la educación y la universidad, entendidas como las instituciones sociales de enorme trascendencia en el desarrollo personal, el amalgamiento de la conciencia colectiva forjadora de la identidad nacional y, de manera especial, la de factor determinante del bien común, la justicia social, la prosperidad y desarrollo de nuestros pueblos.

Reprint of When is a need a need? The problem of normative forecasting in a changing environment

Reprint of When is a need a need? The problem of normative forecasting in a changing environment

Comment on Harold A. Linstone: When is a Need a Need? The Problem of Normative Forecasting in a Changing Environment, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1 (1969), 55–71

I was asked to comment on the article “When is a need a need?” I have to admit, I had to read it again, and the first thought that came to my mind was a picture of Harold A. Linstone at a conference in Hamburg 15years ago, standing in front of me: “Kerstin, be careful, you are reinventing the wheel. And that is a saying other people already told me 20years ago when we were at the beginning of our forecasting…” I have never forgotten his words and nowadays, I am sometimes impatient with my students or my younger colleagues, and bite my lips in order not to repeat the same sentences. But the question “when is a need a need?” is still unsolved, discussed even more and seems to be more difficult than ever. The four hypotheses of the article can be discussed in a similar way today — and the questions remain the same. Some reasons, arguments and events or names have changed, but it is still up to date! This is alarming! Have we not learned anything in the meantime?