The Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems future development

Abstract

The relevance of the article is due to the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development normative forecasting need in order to achieve a superiority over the enemy. One of the futures` main provisions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development has been outlined. Futures have been developed by using a modified method of "branches" as a component of foresight (scenario forecasting). Elements of SWOT analysis and the cognitive-dynamic method of forecasting were also applied in the part regarding normative forecasting. The future of the Armed Forces of Ukraine unmanned systems development is presented as the desired version of the development of these systems in the future, using cause-and-effect logic. Within its framework, the main trends in the development of unmanned systems in the leading countries of the World were considered. The list and content of the main stages of development of futures according to the modified method of "branches" are presented. The forecasting horizon is defined. The author's view on the ecosystem of unmanned systems that has apeared in Ukraine is offered. The results of the analysis of the stakeholders of the considered ecosystem are presented with the distribution of their influence and interest according to the Mendelov and Johnson matrices. Based on the analysis of external and internal factors that will influence the development of unmanned systems, as well as the future operating environment, the key results that must be achieved to realize the main development goal and the main ways (actions, influences) to achieve them are determined. The key results cover two main areas - as organizational and technological and as combat also. In addition, the priority directions for the unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine development by components, levels, types and technical aspects have been determined. The proposed futures may be used both as for more detailed regulatory forecasting of the unmanned systems development, for example, when developing of a corresponding foresight, as during the program documents (strategies, concepts, etc.) development or priorities of the State's military and technical policy determination.