Selecting uniform and healthy seedlings is important to ensure that a certain level of production can be reliably achieved in a plant factory. The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential of non-destructive image analysis for predicting the leaf area and shoot fresh weight of lettuce and to determine the feasibility of using a simple image analysis to select robust seedlings that can produce a uniform and dependable yield of lettuce in a plant factory. To vary the range of the leaf area and shoot fresh weight of lettuce seedlings, we applied two- and three-day irrigation intervals during the period of seedling production and calculated the projected canopy size (PCS) from the top-view images of the lettuce seedlings, although there were no significant growth differences between the irrigation regimes. A high correlation was identified between the PCS and shoot fresh weight for the lettuce seedlings during the period of seedling production, with a coefficient of determination exceeding 0.8. Therefore, the lettuce seedlings were classified into four grades (A–D) based on their PCS values calculated at transplanting. In the early stages of cultivation after transplanting, there were differences in the lettuce growth among the four grades; however, at the harvest (28 days after transplanting), there was no significant difference in the lettuce yield between grades A–C, with the exception of grade D. The lettuce seedlings in grades A–C exhibited the anticipated yield (150 g/plant) at the harvest time. In the correlation between the PCS and leaf area or the shoot fresh weight of lettuce during the cultivation period after transplanting and the entire cultivation period, the R2 values were higher than 0.9, confirming that PCS can be used to predict lettuce growth with greater accuracy. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the PCS calculation from the top-view images, a straightforward image analysis technique, can be employed to non-destructively and accurately predict lettuce leaf area and shoot fresh weight, and the seedlings with the potential to yield above a certain level after transplanting can be objectively and accurately selected based on PCS.
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