Nondemocratic Systems Research Articles

Lying or Believing? Measuring Preference Falsification from a Political Purge in China

Despite its wide usage in explaining some nontrivial dynamics in nondemocratic systems, preference falsification remains an empirical myth for students of authoritarian politics. We provide to our knowledge the first quantitative study of preference falsification in an authoritarian setting using a rare coincidence between a major political purge in Shanghai, China, and the administration of a nationwide survey in 2006. We construct two synthetic measures for expressed and actual support from a set of survey questions and track their changes before and after the purge. We find that after the purge there was a dramatic increase in expressed support among Shanghai respondents, yet the increase was paralleled by an equally evident decline in actual support. We interpret this divergence as evidence for the presence of preference falsification. We also find that variations in the degree of preference falsification are jointly predicted by one’s access to alternative source of information and vulnerability to state sanctions. Using two additional surveys conducted over the span of a year, we further show that there was substantial deterioration in political trust in Shanghai six months after the purge, which suggests that falsification could not sustain public support in the long run.

Why do leaders nationalize the oil industry? The politics of resource expropriation

Why do leaders nationalize the oil industry? In line with a general utility-maximizing theory, I argue that leaders nationalize to maximize state revenues while minimizing costs. The latter includes international retaliation and domestic political constraints. Using a novel longitudinal dataset on the establishment of national oil companies (NOCs), the empirical evidence presented in this paper lends support to four primary findings. States are most likely to establish NOCs (1) in periods of high oil prices, when the risks of expropriation are outweighed by the financial benefits; (2) in non-democratic systems, where executive constraints are limited; (3) in “waves”, that is, after other countries have nationalized, reflecting reduced likelihood of international retaliation; and, though with weaker empirical support, (4) in political settings marked by resource nationalism. This last factor is proxied by OPEC membership in large-N analysis and, in a two-case comparison, by the difference in retained profits between the host and foreign governments. The theory and empirics presented here offer some clues for policy makers and multinational companies alike as to when to expect leaders to opt for nationalization.

Outspoken Insiders: Political Connections and Citizen Participation in Authoritarian China

Given widespread perceptions of risk and uncertainty in nondemocratic systems and developing democracies, why do some citizens still take action and make complaints to authorities? The resource mobilization model identifies the importance of time, money, and civic skills as resources that are necessary for participation. In this paper we build on this model and argue that political connections – close personal ties to someone working in government – can also constitute a critical resource, especially in contexts with weak democratic institutions. Using data from both urban and rural China, we find that individuals with political connections are more likely to contact authorities with complaints about government public services, despite the fact that they do not have higher levels of dissatisfaction with public service provision. We conduct various robustness checks, including a sensitivity analysis, and show that this relationship is unlikely to be driven by an incorrect model specification or unobserved confounding variables.

Leader Turnover, Institutions, and Voting at the UN General Assembly

Using evidence from voting in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), this article shows that leader turnover, especially in small coalition, nondemocratic systems, increases the likelihood of policy realignment. Autocrats who are beholden to only a small proportion of the population represent the foreign policy interests of their small number of supporters. When leader turnover occurs, the interests represented often shift too and this results in an increased volatility and regression toward a neutral position of a nation’s alignment at the United Nations vis-à-vis the United States. While such realignments can offer an opportunity to reduce enmity between states, they can also signal growing differences between friends. The impact of leaders change in large coalitions produces more moderate shifts in alignments.

A Chinese Popularity Function

The notion of a Chinese popularity function may seem surprising, given its authoritarian nature. However, exploring the possibility of indirect popularity functions in nondemocratic systems, we articulate a model of national government support in China. The model argues that sociodemographics, political attitudes, and performance issues mold central government satisfaction. Drawing on a countrywide 2008 public opinion survey, we conclude that regional differences, national trust, and local policy success are of special importance in shaping national government support. The findings, which exhibit theoretical and statistical appeal, lay the groundwork for further investigation of popularity functions in China.

Medialny wymiar legitymizacji władzy

The issue of the legitimization of political power is one of the essential research issues of political science. Legitimization is usually defined as the entitlement of the authorities to make legal decisions accepted by the governed. The author of the paper discusses the issue of relations between the authorities and the media emphasizing the media character (dimension) of the process of legitimization of power. The attempt to approach the issue in this manner is justifiable since the contemporary media constitute a significant link in the relations between the governing and the governed. What is more, the media influence political processes in a state, shape citizens’ attitudes to politics and authorities, and the freedom of the media is perceived as providing one of the foundations of democracy. The media are sometimes named ‘the fourth estate’. Depending on the political system, the media can facilitate winning (or maintaining) power by a political elite, or legitimize power that has been forcefully imposed (in non-democratic systems). The basic goal of the paper is to reflect on the role and significance of the mass media in the process of legitimization of power.

Introduction: Discussing “civil society” and “liberal communities” in China

The idea inspiring the present issue of China Perspectives is that there are certain communities - or groups, or fields - in Chinese that can be most readily expected to promote the strengthening of universal values underpinning human rights. These values include freedom of conscience and speech, freedom of association and the right to participation, and liberty of the person - basic liberties. (1)Civil and liberal democratic valuesIn different ways, communities of journalists, human rights defenders including in particular lawyers, religious communities, and nongovernmental organisations (NGO) involved in the provision of social services or advocacy can be especially important to the promotion of these values. Journalist communities, religious groups, and NGOs are also dependent on freedom of speech, (2) conscience, (3) and association, (4) whereas rights lawyers are engaged in the defence of the rights to due process, a fair trial, and access to justice. (5) In non-liberal, nondemocratic systems, support from international or transnational is an especially important further aspect. Accordingly, the contributions to this volume discuss these fields and aspects.Our project had to overcome some challenges, beginning with the controversial question of whether, even assuming that the idea of society makes sense, a can exist in (post-) authoritarian China. Addressing this question, this introduction argues for a liberal conception of and on the basis of this conception discusses the contributions on the particular Chinese fields contained in this issue. An insight emerging from all the contributions is that pressure on - and sometimes repression of - is met by the strengthening and diversification of resources to resist pressure, and often contributes to rising consciousness of the institutional safeguards needed for a genuine society.Conceptual issues: Civil in China between gongmin and minjianThere is no universally accepted definition of society, because to say a exists is to make an evaluative judgement. Interpretations have produced different conceptions ranging from the sociological to the (more explicitly normative) political.(6)These have different virtues. The classic, liberal conception is often traced back to Tocqueville's account of eighteenth century American characterised, in his view, by the prevalence of associations, formed freely and voluntarily for non-commercial purposes, to serve some aspect of the common good - formed, thus, in the civic or civil spirit to be found in democratic systems. (7) From the perspective of Tocqueville and those he greatly influenced, the existence of is clearly tied to a particular society's democratic organisation. This might hold the promise that a strengthening of could result in a strengthening also of the demand for democratic change. But it could also suggest that in politically hostile conditions, cannot emerge.Adam Michnik's Towards a Civil Society remains an important and, in China, also influential twentieth century reflection on the optimistic reasoning Tocqueville's account led to on the part of democracy activists in Eastern Europe. (8) Under the pressure of the systems they lived in, direct and in a narrow sense political opposition, e.g., through the formation of a party or underground movement aiming to gain government power or overthrow the system, was on the one hand not as eligible as a more diffuse, less direct, broader, and non-violent strategy. On the other hand, just because these systems were totalitarian (at least from the perspective of those who opposed them), the formation of communities resisting domination by the state was certain to be effective, even if such communities did not directly engage in struggles for power. …

China Since Tiananmen: Authoritarian Impermanence

Abstract: Like all contemporary nondemocratic systems, the Chinese system suffers from weak legitimacy at the level of regime type. The most likely form of transition for China remains the model of Tiananmen, when three elements came together: a robust plurality of disaffected citizens, a catalytic event, and a split in the leadership. Had China chosen the path of dialogue in 1989, it might be more stable today.

Sources of Corruption in Authoritarian Regimes

We study the determinants of corruption in a sample of 40-odd authoritarian polities at the turn of the 21st century. Recent studies have proposed several parallel mechanisms potentially relevant for variations in the extent of corruption in authoritarian regimes. We put these various theories into a unified empirical model in order to investigate the wide range of corruption observed in non-democratic political systems. We investigate the importance to variations in corruption in authoritarian countries of the type of group in power, various indicators of rulers' perceived time horizons, and as control variables, the availability of natural resources, the extent of foreign aid, the level of economic development, and the degree of institutionalized autocracy. Our results indicate that personalistic and personalistic-hybrid regimes are more prone to corruption than single-party and military regimes, and that rulers who expect to remain in power for longer are less corrupt. We also find that the availability of natural resources and higher level of institutionalized autocracy are associated with greater corruption and that wealthier countries experience less corruption.

Introduction: Nontraditional Approaches to Russian Politics and Security

Abstract: This introduction to a special section of Demokratizatsiya describes European University at St. Petersburg/Georgetown University project on Approaches to Russian Politics and Security. The guest editor reviews literature on nontraditional approaches to security studies, illustrates policy reasons for applying some of these concepts in Russian context, and introduces section's four articles. Keywords: nontraditional security, politics, Russia, security studies ********** The Soviet system's demise created a tremendous opportunity to unleash creative energies that had been ideologically constrained for decades. Even though some individuals ingeniously pushed USSR's intellectual boundaries, most Soviet social scientists worked within established Socialist paradigm. The opportunities to break out were greater in Central Europe than in Soviet Union. Despite high hopes for collaborative efforts, post-1991 scholarship has failed to produce much paradigm shifting. In Russia, country that dominated Soviet social science, stronger trend has become defense of analytical modes, not challenge of old assumptions. There are exceptions, however. Several universities established since 1992 offer a blend of Russian and Western scholarly approaches. In best cases, they expose students to Russian and Western (mirovoi, literally world) scholarly literature. The Carnegie Corporation of New York invited European University at St. Petersburg's political science and sociology faculty and Georgetown University's Government Department to explore potential synergies in a collaborative project involving scholars from both institutions. For three years, European University scholars developed their expertise in nontraditional approaches. During project's final year, each of them spent time at Georgetown, presented their work at seminars, and consulted with American colleagues to sharpen their scholarship's focus. The four articles published here present some of results from this collaboration. The Soviet system's collapse provided tremendous opportunities for scholars to rethink basic assumptions about politics and security. In first months of 1992, almost anything seemed possible. This gave extra potency to existing efforts to encourage thinking. In comparative politics, transitions paradigm--the dominant discourse--was quickly challenged by a chorus of critics who accused shock therapists of market bolshevism. (1) In both economics and political analysis, opposing sides tended to talk past each other. Political debates often involved a basic difference between procedural and substantive definitions of democracy. Economic arguments were similarly procedural, but ever more bitter, with rapid-reform advocates focusing on process, whereas gradualists emphasized outcomes. After 1998, focus increasingly shifted to nondemocratic systems, joining a growing literature on hybrid regimes and varieties of authoritarianism. (2) This literature, and related discussions' shift toward the political, is well-known to Demokratizatsiya readers. The backgrounds of nontraditional security topics may be less familiar, however. The Security Studies Dilemma Early Nontraditionalists The mainstream security studies community finds integration of new security issues difficult, especially given post--September 11 focus on terrorism. Many security studies experts have responded to perceived threats to traditional security studies by defending fortress rather than reexamining assumptions. Some of earliest and most influential scholars who challenged traditional security approaches include Richard Ullman, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, and Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. (3) Writing in early 1980s, when Soviet Union was still very much in business, Ullman warns that every administration in Washington has defined American national security in excessively narrow and excessively military terms. …

Working at the End of the Assembly Line: A Conversation with Joris Luyendijk about the Impossibility of Doing Western-style Journalism in Arab Countries

In 2006, Joris Luyendijk wrote a best-selling book about his experiences as a correspondent in the Middle East. The book People like Us. Images from the Middle-East offers an insightful, critical, and self-reflexive view on the problems concerning the practice of journalism in Arab countries (and other regimes, for that matter). The author argues that practicing Western-style journalism in nondemocratic systems is a contradiction in terms. Luyendijk fervently pleads for a more self-reflexive and transparent kind of journalism

Reflections and findings on the critical citizen: Civic education – What for?

Abstract. The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe proclaimed the year 2005 the ‘European Year of Democratic Citizenship through Education’, but the question is: What does the democracy‐promoting citizen look like? This article focuses on the question of whether satisfied and supportive citizens or critical citizens have attitudes that promote democracy. The discussion of this question is based on empirical results from a survey of German citizens (N = 2,000), applying bivariate and multivariate methods. Political criticism is measured by indicators of dissatisfaction, attentiveness and system preference; five types of citizens are constructed: satisfied‐attentive, satisfied‐inattentive, dissatisfied‐attentive, dissatisfied‐inattentive citizens with a preference for a democratic system, and one type preferring nondemocratic systems. The article examines which of these types are more consistent with the ‘ideal citizen’– defined as a citizen who participates, is well‐informed, identifies with democracy and politics, has good internal efficacy and is willing to defend democracy. The data show that attentive citizens are more likely to promote democracy than inattentive ones. Attentive citizens are politically more knowledgeable, identify more strongly with the democratic system, feel more politically competent and are more willing to defend democracy. Political satisfaction or dissatisfaction has less of an influence on these dispositions.

Mainland Chinese and Canadian adolescents’ judgments and reasoning about the fairness of democratic and other forms of government

This study examined the judgments and reasoning of adolescents (ages 12–19 years) from three sites in urban and rural China ( n = 270) and in an urban Canadian comparison sample ( n = 72), about the fairness of various forms of democratic and non-democratic government. Adolescents from both China and Canada preferred democratic forms of government, such as representative or direct democracy, to non-democratic systems, such as a meritocracy and an oligarchy of the wealthy, at all ages. Adolescents appealed to fundamental democratic principles, such as representation, voice, and majority rule, to justify their judgments. Similar age-related patterns in judgments and reasoning were found across cultures and across diverse settings within China.

Constitutional dialogue in Uganda

The paper considers several recent constitutional cases in Uganda, including Constitutional Petition No. 5 of 2003, which struck down several sections of the Political Parties and Organisations Act, aimed at suppressing opposition party activity, and Constitutional Appeal No. 1 of 2002, in which the Supreme Court held that a constitutional amendment which had enabled the 2000 Referendum on political systems was unconstitutional, as examples of an emerging constitutional dialogue in Uganda. The paper examines the history of constitutionalism in Uganda, the 1995 Constitution, and recent constitutional cases in order to analyse the tools available within the Ugandan constitutional framework that make a meaningful dialogue between the courts and the legislature possible, and the ways in which these have, or have not been used in recent decisions. The paper discusses dialogue theory with an emphasis on the use of dialogue in the comparative (and particularly Canadian) context and considers whether dialogue is possible in nondemocratic systems. The recent cases indicate that not only is there the beginnings of a process of dialogue in Uganda, but that this dialogue may in fact be more important in some senses than it is within the democratic framework, since given the lack of open debate in Parliament and other fora, the dialogue between the courts and the legislature is often the only place in which important issues can be debated. However, recent developments, such as Museveni's reaction to the court's decision in Constitutional Petition No. 3 of 2000 which nullified the results of the 2000 Referendum, show how fragile this process of dialogue may be.

Lessons from Russia

This article seeks to answer two interrelated questions: where does press freedom stand in Russia more than 15 years after Mikhail Gorbachev’s policy glasnost began? and, what does Russia’s media transformation tell us about our understanding of mass political media systems? It is argued that while the Russian media are suffering under the presidency of Vladimir Putin, circumstances are in no way as dire as in the pre-Gorbachev Soviet period, nor even as bad as some journalists’ rights organizations would have it. By using comparative analysis, and incorporating political science literature that offers typologies of non-democratic systems of governance, the article demonstrates that contemporary Russian media find much in common with authoritarian regimes across the world and are not sui generis as some have argued. In the process, the author attempts to resurrect some of the important distinctions made in Siebert et al.’s much maligned Four Theories of the Press, particularly the role of the state as the leading threat to media freedom. The author also argues for the need to distinguish more clearly between different types of non-democratic mass political media systems.

Economic Reform and the Military: China, Cuba, and Syria in Comparative Perspective

This article examines the involvement of the military in the economy during processes of economic reform and liberalization in non-democratic systems. The hypothesis is that the nature of this involvement is guided by regime survival strategies. Specifically, under dire economic conditions that necessitate liberalization measures, regimes will attempt to promote military loyalty and political survival by minimizing or offsetting the negative effects of economic reform while maximizing positive dividends. The article examines military economic involvement in China, Cuba, and Syria, and emphasizes the need for more cross-regional studies.

Risk Society Comes to China: SARS, Transparency and Public Accountability

ASIANPERSPECTIVE, Vol. 27, No. 2,2003, pp. 241-251. Commentary RISK SOCIETY COMES TO CHINA: SARS, TRANSPARENCY AND PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY Paul Thiers A Risk Society By now, it is clear that the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and its bureaucratic mismanagement is a politi­ cal, economic, and public-health nightmare for China. But the SARS crisis presents two important tests for the Chinese govern­ ment and, so far, it has failed only the first. The bureaucracy pre­ dictably botched the administration of the outbreak, leading with secrecy and denial, allowing the disease to spread further and faster than necessary, and losing any semblance of legitimacy in both the domestic and international community. The political leadership, however, has yet to indicate what lessons it will draw and what steps it will take in the long term. If it makes the right decisions, SARS could provide a context for addressing a long­ standing weakness in Chinese public administration. SARS occurs as a new leadership is attempting to consoli­ date power under a populist program, claiming to defend those left to bear the costs and risks of China's rapid growth and glob­ al integration. China's new premier, Wen Jiabao, spent Spring Festival in a Chinese coal mine, arguably the most risky occupa­ tional environment in the world. Hu Jintao, the new president, has spoken of the need to support hundreds of thousands of urban workers and poor farmers whose livelihoods are at risk from increased competition and low prices that China's acces­ 242 Paul Thiers sion to the World Trade Organization will bring in the next ten years. While it is still too early to tell, this could be a political platform, recognizing that industrialization, technology, and global market integration create risks—and that a government that fails to manage those risks, fails its own people and loses the confidence of the global community. Since these are specifi­ cally the bureaucratic failures of the SARS crisis, the long-term response will be a crucial test of the new political leadership. To understand the significance of the SARS crisis for Chinese politics, it is useful to consider German social theorist Ulrich Beck's concept of risk society.1 Examining the late 20th century social movement politics of nuclear power, environmental pol­ lution, and food safety scares such as mad cow disease, Beck argues that we have entered a new stage of modernity in which the definition, management, and allocation of risks replaces the generation and allocation of costs and benefits as the central theme of politics and science. Beck cites an emerging, world­ wide awareness that industrialization, technology, and global­ ization bring risks that nation-states, as the traditional arenas of policy making, are expected to address. But this same industrial­ ization, and particularly the new technologies and levels of global interaction that characterize it in our era, facilitate infor­ mation exchange and policy advocacy independently of nation­ state authority. Beck further argues that emerging networks of interaction below, above, and around the nation-state erode the state's monopoly on the definition and management of risk even as they increase pressure on the state to manage risk effectively. What is more, because risk is largely a function of public percep­ tion, state proclamations that a problem is under control can backfire. Non-state actors can challenge official assurances, lead­ ing to public distrust and anger toward state administrators. In democracies, risk society unravels the progressive-era model in which public administrators are seen as technical experts, insu­ lated from direct public pressure. For Beck, the only solution is to open up policy making and administration to ever greater 1. See Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Tozvards a New Modernity, trans. M. Ritter (London: Sage, 1993), and Beck, World Risk Society (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1999). Risk Society Comes to China 243 levels of public accountability. Of course, this presents the great­ est challenges for non-democratic systems that have relied on authoritarian models of science and politics to define and administer policy in risk-prone areas such as health, the envi­ ronment, and global market integration. Beck's argument has important implications for a country like China. At least since...

The East-European Gypsies: Regime Change, Marginality, and Ethnopolitics

Acknowledgments Introduction Part I. The Analytical Framework: 1. Regimes, states, and minorities 2. Marginality and ethnic mobilization Part II. Non-Democratic Systems and Gypsy Marginality: 3. The gypsies in imperial and authoritarian states 4. The Roma under state-socialism Part III. The Gypsies in Emerging Democracies: 5. The socioeconomic impact of regime change: gypsy marginality in the 1990s 6. Romani mobilization 7. The international dimension: migration and institutions 8. State institutions and policies toward the gypsies 9. Romani marginality revisited Conclusion.

Political Competition and Economic Growth

Under many nondemocratic systems, good policy is bad politics, and bad policy helps leaders stay in office. The result is poorer performance in terms of economic growth.

Environmental Impact Assessment Regulation in Hong Kong and Shanghai: A Cross-city Analysis

Cross-city analysis in environmental regulation within non-democratic political systems is a neglected area. Taking policy convergence and styles of regulation as the focus, this paper has taken an initial step to compare the environmental impact assessment (EIA) regulation in Hong Kong and Shanghai. In this comparative exercise, it is identified that policy convergence occurs more explicitly in policy ideology and policy consequences, whereas divergence takes place in policy content, regulatory process and public consultation. Convergence, however, is only superficial whereas divergence is substantial. Indeed EIA systems of these two jurisdictions have displayed contrasting styles of regulation. The formal EIA system in Shanghai is dominated by the environmental agency, which regulates informal politics in the EIA process within a legal format. The informal EIA system in Hong Kong is co-ordinated by the environmental agency, which seeks active co-operation with the clients in a consultative EIA process in an informal and discretionary manner. What makes the Hong Kong system superior to the Shanghai system is the existence of institutional channels for public consultation. Within a non-democratic political setting, the EIA process in Hong Kong is more transparent and the EIA system is more accountable to the public, whereas the EIA process in Shanghai is lacking in transparency and the EIA system is under tight bureaucratic control.