Non-democratic Settings Research Articles

Policy-specific human rights shaming: Evidence from the other letters of the UN Special Procedures

This study provides empirical insights into “other letters” (OLs) issued by the UN Special Procedures, a unique tool of policy-specific human rights shaming. By analyzing criticized laws, recipients, state responses, and impact, the study reveals that OLs are predominantly targeted at cooperative states. Despite better human rights records, democracies receive more OLs and they are more likely to implement the recommendations. Authoritarian states receive fewer OLs and tend to reject the allegations. The study highlights the intricate dynamics shaping interactions between UN human rights mechanisms and states, emphasizing democratic responsiveness while underscoring the challenges of addressing abuses in nondemocratic settings.

DO POLITICALLY CONNECTED BANKS PERFORM BETTER IN A DEMOCRATIC ENVIRONMENT?

This paper elucidates the intricate relationship among bank performance, political connections, and the democratic environment. The existing body of evidence is notably limited in illustrating the impact of a democratic environment on bank performance. Our study examines a sample of 397 banks spanning 14 countries and districts, encompassing both politically affiliated and non-politically affiliated banks in both democratic and non-democratic settings. The empirical findings reveal a reduction in non-performing loans but an escalation in loan loss provision within a democratic environment. This phenomenon may be attributed to the diminished level of financial constraints prevalent in democratic settings. Furthermore, our investigation revealsthat political connections exert a deleterious effect on the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, coupled with a salutary impact on loan loss provision. Conclusively, our research identifies that the stock return of politically connected banks in democratic environments is inferior to their counterparts in non-democratic environments. Additionally, the non-performing loans ratio (NPL) of politically connected banks in democratic environments tends to be higher compared to their non-democratic counterparts. Conversely, the loan loss provision of politically connected banks in democratic environments tends to be lower than that in non-democratic environments. This nuanced analysis contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between democratic environments, political connections, and bank performance.

Churches in the 2020 elections and political protests in Belarus: raising voices at the time of uncertainties and turmoil

ABSTRACT In 2020, the religious factor turned out to gain importance to both protest mobilizations and to government repression in Belarus, where the initiatives of religious groups had fostered collective action in the state system that was punitive against any dissent. This happened for the first time in the country, which had been affected by the legacies of Soviet anti-religious policies. The forms of protest that churches could suggest fitted neatly into the non-democratic settings of Belarus, providing a necessary opportunity structure for otherwise forbidden mobilizations. Analyzing the attitudes of the Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant Churches toward the events of 2020 in Belarus, this research note discusses why their social contract with the authoritarian regime was broken. We argue that the churches’ stance and the role they played at a time of political turmoil confirmed their status as influential non-state actors who are capable of having their say in the rough circumstances of an authoritarian and repressive political regime. At the same time, it has also confirmed the limits of the authoritarian state to influence religious institutions and the growing opportunities for clergy and laypeople from these institutions to have a common say on important issues of moral and ethical dimensions, inspired by Christian principles and values.

Hope amid violence: youths’ agency and learning experiences to transform social conflicts in non-democratic settings

Understanding and addressing conflicts underlying direct and indirect violence is necessary to build a just and sustainable peace. This study foregrounds youths’ voices and lived experiences of social conflicts in Iran, an understudied (semi-)authoritarian context in the Middle East. It examines selected youths’ socially constructed understandings of the conflicts and violence affecting their lives, their perceptions of their roles and agency in non-violently addressing those conflicts, and the learning experiences and social pedagogies (inside and outside school) available to them that might have contributed to forming their understandings and agency. The study’s intersectional gender- and social-class-sensitive design enables an understanding of how social-structural, cultural and political dynamics interacted with participating youths’ experiences of social conflicts and their peacebuilding citizenship agency. Findings show that social conflicts that the participating youths were concerned about varied in their differing gender and social class locations. In addition, despite the disconnections between the participating students’ lived experiences of conflicts and their learning opportunities at school, the findings point to spaces of feasibility for schools to enhance students’ opportunities to develop key aspects of peacebuilding agency, even in (semi-)authoritarian settings where citizenship and peace education are absent from the explicit curriculum. Moreover, the research expands the international conceptualisation of peacebuilding agency by showing that young people’s frequent responses to the social conflicts in their lives in (semi-)authoritarian contexts (avoidance, conformity, withdrawal and despair) cannot be simply interpreted as apathy or lack of awareness of the larger structural issues.

Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.

Challenges for Political Science Research Ethics in Autocracies: A Case Study of Central Asia

The imperative to conduct research ethically has been firmly established. Biomedical and applied research in the Global North has dominated the development of an ethical framework based on four broad principles: respect for autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice. The prevailing research ethics can become significant constraints to political scientists focussing on non-democratic settings. The appropriateness of these codes in guiding political scientists’ research, especially in authoritarian contexts of Central Asia, is examined. The article outlines the need for a more culturally and contextually nuanced approach to research ethics and an understanding of the discipline-specific ethical dilemmas for researchers within political science.

Quarantined judicial expansion: The environmental legal entrepreneurship of Chinese courts, procuratorates, and NGOs

AbstractAlthough judicial empowerment has become increasingly common worldwide, the expansion of judicial powers in authoritarian countries faces persistent obstacles, such as institutional dependence, lack of political clout, and the repression of civil society. Through empirically examining three cases of environmental legal entrepreneurship under China's new public interest litigation (PIL) system, this study aims to reevaluate the patterns and limits of judicial expansion under authoritarianism. It finds that Chinese judges, prosecutors, and NGOs have been able to leverage the PIL system and their respective institutional advantages to substantially expand judicial oversight on eco‐environmental protection. However, the state has established boundaries for such legal entrepreneurship in terms of subject matter, institutional autonomy, and geographic reach, effectively confining them within political spheres considered unthreatening to the regime. Such quarantined judicial expansion shields relevant actors from authoritarian governments' tendency to suppress legal mobilization and thus may be a more viable form of judicial expansion in nondemocratic settings.

Editorial Introduction: Contributing to the policy process literatures

Editorial Introduction: Contributing to the policy process literatures

Elections in Nondemocratic Settings: When and Why Do They Help Regime Survival?

Background: Elections in nondemocratic settings are expected to play a regime sustaining role and a regime subverting role. Recent research finds that these two seemingly competing views are not mutually exclusive, but rather complementary with each other. This is the case because the regime subverting role of elections is at work in the short run, whereas the regime sustaining role operates in the long term. In this paper, I argue that these effects are conditional on the nature of competition in those elections. Specifically, I contend that these effects that derive from the informational role of elections do not emerge when opposition forces boycott the elections. Methods: Using data from 262 nondemocratic regimes in 116 countries from 1946 to 2007, I examined (1) whether holding multiparty elections with ex ante competition increases the risks of authoritarian breakdowns; (2) whether holding multiparty elections without opposition boycott increases the risks of authoritarian breakdowns in the short term; and (3) whether holding multiparty elections without opposition boycott decreases the likelihood of authoritarian breakdowns in the long run. Results: First, only legislative elections with ex ante competition are found to increase the probability of authoritarian breakdowns. Second, both presidential and legislative elections increase the likelihood of authoritarian breakdowns in the short term only if viable opposition candidates or parties compete. Lastly, both presidential and legislative elections decrease the chances of authoritarian breakdowns in the long run, but this effect is present only when viable opposition do not boycott the elections. Conclusions: The regime subverting role and the regime sustaining role of elections in nondemocratic settings can be contaminated by the absence of opposition forces. This paper suggests a need to further scrutinize the nature and quality of elections when assessing their impact on the survival of nondemocratic regimes.

Politicization of Science Journalism: How Russian Journalists Covered the Covid-19 Pandemic

ABSTRACT The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has become a stress test for science journalism worldwide. In this paper, we explore the under-researched topic of the perceived role enactment of science journalists in non-democratic settings in the example of COVID-19 coverage in Russia. Drawing on 23 semi-structured interviews with Russian science journalists from pro-state and independent media outlets, we examine their perceived role enactment and politicization of reporting about the pandemic in Russia. We identify three major types of limitations of a political nature reported by journalists: (1) editorial guidelines; (2) accessibility and self-censorship of sources; (3) self-censorship. Manifestation of these three types of limitations differ depending on the political orientation of media outlets as well as on the aspect of the topic. Based on the findings, we discuss the influence of universal trends and contextual factors on science journalism covering the pandemic.

Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea

When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.

‘Fake news’ discourses

Abstract This article explores the strategic use of ‘fake news’ discourses in non-democratic contexts using a mixed-methods approach grounded in social network analysis and discourse theory. In contexts such as Russia and Iran, where the opposition generally does not have unrestricted access to the political public sphere, social media platforms serve to influence discourses. Given the prevalence of fake news discourses, previous studies have already focused extensively on the political elite and their use of this discourse within Western or Anglo-American contexts, and on the typologies of ‘fake news’. Our findings address this research gap and suggest that ordinary users in non-Western and non-democratic settings do not differentiate between ‘fake news’ types. Rather, they employ the discourse as a means to strategically delegitimise and discredit their opponents.

Walking a Thin Line of Representation: Analyzing the Behavior of Egyptian MPs

Abstract This article is part of the Special Issue “Parliaments in the Middle East and North Africa: A Struggle for Relevance.” While legislators in democratic settings have the electorate as their main principal, mps in semi- and nondemocratic settings need to serve two principals to remain in office: the regime and the active segment of the electorate. This dichotymy sometimes requires particular skills in parliamentary behavior. For the case of Egypt, we investigate how mps strike a balance between regime support and representing their constituents up to an extent that does not endanger their chances for re-election. A content analysis of session scripts of the Egyptian parliament in 2016 was conducted to examine how mps walk this – traditionally understudied – thin line. Our findings indicate that representation gets reduced to “descriptive representation,” i.e. a representation that puts more emphasis on representing local constituents and demographic segments, like Copts and women, that mps are presumably elected to represent. We therefore show that mps fulfill the important tasks of citizens representation even in semi- and nondemocratic settings.

Why and How Umbrella Movement Participants Ran in the Authoritarian Elections in Hong Kong

Why do social movement participants turn to elections to advance their goals? Little scholarship has examined movement–election connections at the micro level, and cases from nondemocratic settings are few. After the 2014 Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong failed to achieve substantive results, very few occupiers ran as candidates in the next two general elections. Drawing on interviews with Umbrella candidates and campaign assistants, I argue that after being politicized by the occupation, those candidates used the authoritarian elections to prolong their challenge. They ran to prove that the occupation, though it had failed, did enjoy popular support, thus turning the elections into electoral “moments”: eruptions of civic energy. Their campaigns were also direct challenges to the existing parties. However, they were constrained by electoral logic. Candidates therefore devised various tactics to justify their decision, and to differentiate themselves from conventional candidates.

Peace in the Shadow of Unrest: yinao and the State Response in China

AbstractMuch research on contentious politics focuses on the origins and dynamics of contention or the impact of contention on policy change. Although some studies have delved into the state reactions to contention, relatively little is known about the outcome or effectiveness of state responses, especially in non-democratic settings. This paper attempts to fill this gap and to uncover the policy feedback effect in non-democratic settings by studying the Chinese state's repression of violent incidents targeted at healthcare personnel and facilities (yinao). I argue that without comprehensive healthcare reforms to tackle the root causes of yinao, state repression of yinao generates unintended adverse outcomes, causing the doctor–patient relationship to deteriorate. Using the difference-in-differences method with China Family Panel Studies data for 2014 and 2016, I find that the criminalization of yinao diminishes public trust in doctors and confidence in hospitals’ competence and instead increases public concerns about the healthcare system.

Decentralization Without Democracy

ABSTRACTIncreasingly, decentralization is being adopted by countries in which assumptions made by formal models of decentralization, such as electoral accountability and population mobility, fail to hold. How does decentralization affect public service delivery in such contexts? The authors exploit the partial rollout of decentralization in the autocratic context of Ethiopia and use a spatial regression discontinuity design to identify its effects. Decentralization improves delivery of productive services, specifically, agricultural services, but has no effect on social services, specifically, drinking water services. This finding is consistent with a model in which local leaders have superior information about the public investments that will deliver the greatest returns and they are incentivized by decentralization to maximize citizens’ production—on which rents depend—rather than citizens’ utility. These findings shed light on nonelectoral mechanisms through which decentralization affects public goods provision and help to explain decentralization’s mixed effects in many nondemocratic settings.

Ethnic diversity and social welfare provision in non-democracies: Evidence from China

A large body of literature suggests that ethnic diversity matters to social welfare provision in democracies by lowering the demand for public projects, but it does not look at the impact of ethnic diversity on social welfare provision in authoritarian regimes. By analyzing county-level data on ethnic composition and public spending on social welfare in China, this study finds that in an authoritarian settings, ethnic diversity is correlated with a higher share of social welfare spending. Despite the divergent preferences people may have for social welfare provision due to ethnic diversity, local Chinese government tends to provide a larger share of social welfare spending in ethnically fragmented places to improve the general well-being of the population and maintain regime stability. This finding extends our understanding of the relationship between ethnic diversity and social welfare provision in non-democratic settings, shedding new light on how regime type affects the shaping of local fiscal policy.

BROKER AND BUFFER: WHY ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS PARTICIPATE IN POPULAR PROTESTS IN CHINA*

The social movement literature considers that institutional allies facilitate movement mobilization and favorable outcomes, but it has not sufficiently analyzed how such alliances emerge and endure. This gap becomes more significant in nondemocratic settings, where institutional support of protests is monitored, restricted, and suppressed. Drawing upon fifty in-depth interviews, this article examines the variations of environmental nongovernmental organizations' (NGO) participation in four popular protests in China. I find that environmental NGOs collaborated with grassroots protesters to varying degrees, ranging from minimal presence of information provision, policy advocacy, coalition building, to pervasive participation including protest mobilization. The degree of NGO participation cannot be explained by organizational resources, civic communities, or political environments; rather, it hinges on skillful agencies that broker otherwise disconnected resources and buffer political pressure for their partners. My research contributes to the relational approach to social movements and to studies on the interactions among social movements, NGOs, and the authoritarian state.

Grievances and Fears in Islamist Movements: Revisiting the Link between Exclusion, Insecurity, and Political Violence

AbstractThis article examines how exclusionary policies and repressive measures affect the propensity of Islamist groups in nondemocratic settings to engage in violence. The central argument is that exclusion from electoral politics, from civil society, and from public discourse can increase political grievances, whereas symbolic threats to religious values spark sociocultural grievances; state violence and repression foster a sense of insecurity. The article proposes that Islamist groups are both principled and strategic actors, who may adopt violent rhetoric in response to political or sociocultural grievances, but who resort to violent tactics primarily out of a sense of insecurity. The quantitative examination of twenty-two Islamist groups from the Middle East confirms that exclusionary policies can spark violent rhetoric, whereas repression and threats to the physical integrity of a group increase the propensity toward violent behavior. However, when insecurity turns into disillusionment, groups can also move away from violence if they feel alienated from the public. The close investigation of the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya in Egypt shows that the response to repression depends on the length of the conflict, the level of fragmentation within an organization, and public opinion.

Framing authoritarian legitimacy: elite cohesion in the aftermath of popular rebellion

ABSTRACTProtest activity presents a significant threat to state legitimacy in nondemocratic settings. Although authoritarian regimes rely heavily on coercion, state officials must also justify their authority to both the public and other elites. Previous work has shown how elites vilify challengers to legitimize repression, but scholars have yet to examine how state officials engage in meaning work to prevent elite divisions from forming in light of popular challenges to regime legitimacy. In this study, we examine elite framing processes in a case of popular resistance to a 1953 currency reform in Communist Czechoslovakia. Using archival material, we trace the inter- and intra-organizational processes through which officials construct legitimacy claims by explaining and adjudicating blame for the popular rebellion. Results indicate that authoritarian rulers relied on a variety of discursive mechanisms to generate consensus among subordinate elites and protect regime legitimacy. We conclude by discussing implications for research on authoritarianism and social movements.