Non-oil Revenue Research Articles

Non-Oil Revenue and the Impact on the Economic Development of Nigeria

Nigeria as one of the major oil-producing countries in the world has been diversifying into more non-oil revenue while more attention is paid to tax revenue as it has the potential of taking the country to the Promised Land. As a result, the study sought to examine Non-Oil Revenue and its impact on the Economic Development of Nigeria, leveraging on tax revenue for the period 1994–2023. The objectives of the study examined the effect of corporate income tax, capital gain tax, value-added tax, customs and excise duties on economic growth. Tertiary Education Tax, Stamp duty, and Other Levies were used as controlled variables. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and Federal Inland Revenue (FIRS) Statistical Reports. ARDL Regression Analysis was applied to test the hypotheses. The findings revealed that the coefficients of variation for the lag values showed that the RGDP was positively impacted by TDT and CED, while negatively impacted by CIT, CGT, VAT, and SD. The ARDL model's R2 and Adjusted R2 statistics together explained almost 69% of the variation in RGDP, according to the adjusted R2 of 0.518719. This implies that a significant portion of volatility is still unaccounted for despite the model's poor predictive power. The study concluded that the aggregate tax revenue does not show the hope of taking the country to the promised land, as only two (CED and TDT) showed a positive relationship with the economic growth of the country. Thus, it recommended that the Nigerian government need to pay more attention to tax income since it can promote the necessary growth in the nation.

The Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation on Revenue Generation in the Oil Dependent Economy: Nigeria

This study explores the dynamic relationship between crude oil price volatility and revenue generation in Nigeria over a 41-year period from 1981 to 2021. It encompasses an analysis of key variables, including total revenue (REV), oil price (OPV), oil revenue (ORV), non-oil revenue (NRV), and exchange rate (EXCHR). The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to examine the long-term and short-term impacts of oil price volatility on revenue generation. This study reveals that crude oil price volatility (OPV) failed to exert strong impact on total revenue (REV) in Nigeria in the distance period. Oil revenue (ORV) exhibits a strong and positive influence on total revenue, highlighting its pivotal role in revenue generation. Non-oil revenue (NRV) also significantly contributes to total revenue, emphasizing the importance of diversifying revenue sources. Exchange rate (EXCHR) fluctuations do not significantly predict changes in total revenue. Based on the findings, policy recommendations include diversifying revenue sources, enhancing non-oil revenue collection, effective oil revenue management, promoting economic diversification, strengthening tax infrastructure, and adopting prudent budgeting practices.

Analyzing and Measuring the Impact of Financial Policy on Bank Credit in Iraq

This study dealt with the basics of government spending, public revenues, and public loans as indicators of financial policy and bank credit, in addition to explaining the relationship between these variables in Iraq for the period (2005-2021), by analyzing the reality of the study variables economically and analogically, the descriptive approach was used in analyzing Data for financial policy indicators and bank credit, where bank credit (BC) was analyzed as a dependent variable, and public spending (GS), public revenues (GR) and public loans (GL) were analyzed as independent variables, and according to the Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), it was found that the degree of integration of the study variables is A mixture of type (0)I and type (1)I, and thus the model was estimated according to the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology, thus, the model was estimated according to the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology, and according to the bounds test for co-integration, it was revealed that there was a co-integration relationship for the model, and the estimated model was successful in all standard goodness tests (autocorrelation, heterogeneity of variance, normal distribution of residuals), in addition to that it was Stable according to the CUSUM and CUSUM SQ tests. The most important results of the study were that the relationship of both public revenues and public loans in the two terms to bank credit was positive, but the relationship of government spending in the two terms was inverse, and that all of these relationships were significant. The credit provided to the public sector witnessed a continuous increase throughout the study period, while the percentage of credit provided to the government was increasing at the expense of a continuous decrease in the percentage of credit provided to public institutions, the percentage of credit provided to the public sector witnessed a decline compared to the increase in the percentage of credit provided to the public sector out of total credit. Cash, both public revenues and government spending in Iraq were negatively affected by the financial, security and health crises, but bank credit was positively affected by the same crises. The study came out with a set of recommendations, the most important of which was: Iraq should work to diversify its sources of income and reduce its dependence on crude oil and its revenues in forming its public revenues and public spending, which fluctuate with the fluctuation of global oil prices, increasing with its rise and decreasing with its fall, Iraq must work to increase the proportion of investment spending to Total government spending, Iraq must also work to reduce dependence on its oil revenues and work to increase the ratio of non-oil revenues to total public

Fiscal Policy and Economic Resilience: The Impact of Government Consumption Alongside Oil and Non-Oil Revenues on Saudi Arabia’s GDP during Crises (1969–2022)

This study investigates the impact of Government Consumption (GC) on Saudi Arabia’s GDP during major economic crises from 1969 to 2022, focusing on periods marked by fluctuations in oil and non-oil revenues. By integrating these revenue streams, the research provides a more comprehensive analysis of fiscal policy effectiveness during economic downturns. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals the complex role of Government Consumption (GC) in stabilizing and stimulating the Saudi economy amidst revenue volatility. Key findings indicate that while GC does not significantly influence GDP in the short term, its long-term effectiveness varies across different crises. Specifically, GC has acted as a buffer against immediate economic shocks during certain crises while providing a stimulus for economic recovery in others. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, timely fiscal measures significantly boosted GDP, underscoring the importance of adaptive and proactive fiscal policies. Conversely, the 2014–2016 oil price collapse demonstrated that GC alone was insufficient to counteract economic downturns, emphasizing the need for diversified revenue strategies. These findings underscore the dual role of GC in economic stabilization and recovery. During the COVID-19 pandemic, GC played a crucial role in both mitigating negative economic impacts and supporting recovery efforts, showcasing its effectiveness in times of global disruptions. This demonstrates GC’s capability as an immediate buffer against economic shocks and a stimulus for economic recovery. In contrast, during the 2014–2016 oil price collapse, GC was less effective, indicating the limitations of relying solely on government spending without broader economic diversification. This highlights the necessity of diversified revenue strategies to complement fiscal measures for long-term economic resilience. The robustness of the findings was ensured through various diagnostic tests, including checks for autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and stationarity of residuals. The absence of significant autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity, along with the stationarity of differenced variables, confirms the validity of the econometric models used. The study contributes to the discourse on fiscal policy in oil-dependent economies by illustrating the critical role of diversified revenue strategies and adaptive fiscal measures in enhancing economic resilience. Recommendations are offered for policymakers to optimize fiscal strategies, ensuring robust economic recovery and long-term stability in volatile markets. This research highlights the necessity for Saudi Arabia to refine its fiscal policies towards greater economic diversification and stability.

Influence of Inflation on the Economic Growth of Saudi Arabia

Primary factors considered that influence inflation movement can experience significant changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This research focuses on examining macroeconomic factors which influence the inflation rate in Saudi Arabia which is critical for development and adjusting a suitable policy response. Saudi Arabia’s changing inflation trends are also affected by its internal and external factors including domestic demands, net spending of Government, and liquidity along with exchange rate movements and imported inflation. This research paper focuses on providing insights regarding previous studies conducted on this topic by adopting different approaches. The approach utilized in this study reflects mainly non-oil revenues like value-added tax along with levies related to expatriates on inflation. ARDL (Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model) has been applied instead of the Vector Error Correction model considering its robustness for 40 quarter sample sized integrated in this study. From the results, it has been confirmed that the inflation Movement in Saudi Arabia is more inclined to external factors than domestic factors.

Public finance instruments and output growth in Nigeria

This study investigates the empirical relationship between the aggregated and disaggregated components of fiscal policy variables and output growth in Nigeria using the vector error correction mechanism for the period of 1981 to 2021. This formulation was an improvement over previous empirical studies of the impact of public finance instruments on output growth in Nigeria. Our findings suggest that fiscal policy instruments (total expenditure, capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, total revenue, primary fiscal balance, domestic debt, external debt, oil tax revenue, and non-oil tax revenue) exert significant impacts on output growth and most of the empirical results obtained support the hypothesised relationships between public finance instruments and output growth in Nigeria. However, aggregate federal government expenditure exerts a significant negative impact on output growth, while on the disaggregated scale, capital expenditure exerts a significant positive influence on output growth whereas recurrent expenditure exerts a significant negative impact on output growth. Given these findings, we recommend that the government of Nigeria, through its fiscal authorities, should adopt growth-enhancing fiscal policies that would engender macroeconomic stability and will be potent in refocusing recurrent expenditure towards ensuring productivity growth.

The Nexus Between Revenue Generation and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The general objective of the study is to examine the relationship between revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was used with secondary data collected from CBN database (2012-2022). The dependent variable was economic growth and measured by gross domestic product GDP while the independent variables was revenue generation and measured by oil and non-oil revenue. The study adopt usage the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model for the data analysis which shows the long-run relationship between revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria. It was discovered that oil revenue (OILR) exerts an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria in the long run at 5% significant value. It implies that a unit increase in oil revenue will lead to 3.709184 units increase in economic growth in Nigeria. Conversely, non-oil revenue has a positive and significant coefficient of 1.257631 units. This implies that a unit increase in non- oil revenue will bring about 1.257631 units increase in economic growth in Nigeria in the long. The study recommends that effort should be made by the governments to diversify the main revenue source from oil to other sectors of the economy such as agriculture, extractive industries in order to increase revenue generated from other sources

Non-Oil Tax Revenue and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria

Abstract In Nigeria, there has been a decline in oil revenue. This has impacted negatively on infrastructural development. This paper seeks to examine the effect of non-oil revenue as an alternative source of revenue for infrastructural development. The research design of the study was the ex post facto research design. The source of data was the secondary source and a time series of data from 1981 to 2021 was used in carrying out the research. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the long-run and short-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. It was observed that the variables are co-integrated, and as such, a long-run and short-run relationship exists among the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the ARDL short-run estimation result shows that the non-oil tax variables (proxied by VAT, CUSTD, and CIT) have a positive and significant effect on infrastructural development (proxied by total electricity production measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh) in Nigeria. In tandem, the ARDL long-run estimation results reveal that value-added tax, customs duties, and company income tax have a positive and significant impact on infrastructural development in Nigeria. Hence, an increase in the non-oil tax revenue base will boost infrastructural development in Nigeria in the long run. This finding is in tandem with the ARDL short-run estimation result. Therefore, it is inferred that Nigeria can experience infrastructural development when genuine commitment is made to explore an increase in non-oil revenue generation instead of being over-dependent on oil revenue.

Multinational Corporations transfer Pricing Policies and Economic Growth in Nigeria

With Nigeria's abundant natural resources the control of a substantial portion of oil production by multinational corporations (MNCs) raises concerns about transfer pricing manipulation. Part of revenue leakages of the government in Nigeria which are needed to boost economic growth can be attributed to tax evasion practices by MNCs through their transfer pricing activities. Studies that focused on tax evasion practices of MNCs such as sharp practices in the area of transfer pricing practices in Nigeria are scarce. This study examined the effect of multinational corporations transfer pricing policies, corruption and economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The study adopts an ex-post factor research design, utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag modelling and bound testing cointegration as the estimation techniques. The inferences were made at 5% significant level. The inferences were made at 5% significant level. The findings revealed that domestic non-oil revenue shows a significant and positive effect on Gross Domestic Product, suggesting a potential positive association between domestic non-oil revenue and Gross Domestic Product over the long term. In the short run lagged differences in Gross Domestic Product exhibit a positive and marginally significant coefficient, suggesting a persistence effect. In conclusion, in the examination of transfer pricing policy on Gross Domestic Product, the long-run estimates reveal a significant effect of transfer pricing on Gross Domestic Product (Adj. R2= 0.229, F (4,37) = 30.94, p< 0.05)), The study concluded that transfer pricing contributes valuable insights to the on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that policy maker should center on promoting transparency and fairness in multinational corporations' transfer pricing practices through the implementation of stringent regulations and monitoring mechanisms, collaboration between domestic and international tax authorities to detect and deter potential manipulations, and the fostering of international cooperation to establish standardized guidelines, aiming for an equitable and consistent approach across jurisdictions.

The Effectiveness of Financial Sustainability in Targeting Inflation, Nigeria as a Model for the Period 2004-2040

Creating a sovereign fund financed by Nigeria's oil surpluses is a significant objective. Rentier countries tend to see their current operating expenditures increase in tandem with oil revenue growth, surpassing the growth of the gross domestic product. This points to a structural deficit resulting from excessive spending. The government controls the money supply by managing the monetary base, which, in turn, is influenced by foreign reserves. Therefore, the study focused on assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools and financial sustainability in addressing inflation. The goal is to predict these financial variables accurately until 2040 to safeguard monetary stability against fluctuations in oil prices. Utilizing the autoregressive model and moving averages (ARIMA), the study aims to address government spending growth, primarily driven by the monetization of oil revenues. This has led to a structural deficit within the Nigerian economy, which needs to be curbed by the effectiveness of the sovereign fund. This effectiveness is reflected in the concept of financial sustainability, with a focus on targeting inflation through what is known as nominal financial wealth. This translation of economic sustainability into tangible financial wealth does not adequately clarify the increase in non-oil output achieved through investment spending. The latter, in turn, results in actual growth in non-oil revenues, which is essential for addressing inflation through fiscal policy tools. In a rentier economy reliant on oil, achieving economic stability isn't assured solely by a balanced budget. It's crucial that public spending is managed with a level of independence from fluctuations in oil prices. The study's findings demonstrate the relative effectiveness of the financial sustainability forecasting model in influencing inflation targeting in the Nigerian economy.

Accountability and revenue generation in Nigeria

Nigeria’s tax revenue to GDP has averaged at about 6% until recently when it was reported at 10.68% which is still low compared to developed economies that have an average of 30%. Hence, the focus of this study is to assess the influence of accountability on the level of revenue generation in Nigeria. The research design used in this study is the ex post facto research design. The study covered a twenty-year period which spans from 2002 to 2021. Multiple regression was used to analyze the data in the study. The result of the analysis showed that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and the rule of law all have a positive influence on oil revenue in Nigeria. It also revealed that political stability, regulatory quality and rule of law all have a positive influence on non-oil revenue in Nigeria. Overall, the results showed that accountability significantly influences oil and non-oil revenue. Hence, the study concluded that accountability has a significant influence on revenue generation in Nigeria. It was recommended that laws be reviewed to reflect the current day realities and as such enhance revenue generation in Nigeria.

Tax Compliance (Active Tax Payers) and Non-Oil Tax Revenue in Nigeria: Exposition of Fiscal Exchange Theory and Expectation Proposition

The paper investigated the tax compliance (active tax payers) and non oil revenue in Nigeria in relation to fiscal exchange theory and expectation proposition. The study adopted ex post facto research design; secondary data for nineteen years (2003 - 2022) were collected from various issues of the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) statistical bulletin and annual reports. Tax compliances as regressand variable was measured with number of actual annual total non oil tax revenue in Nigeria and Tax compliances among active tax payers of company income tax (CIT), Petroleum profit tax (PPT), Capital gain tax (CGT), Value Added Tax (VAT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT) as regressors. The data was analyzed using multiple regression analysis to establish the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The findings revealed that tax compliance have significant effect on boosting tax revenue generation and that tax default can cause significant variation in government revenue. The variable in the model is significant at the 5% critical level and the regression coefficient reveals that 72.8% of the total variation in revenue is accounted for by tax compliance with other variables in the stochastic term accounting for the remaining 27.2%. Specifically, Tax Compliance (Active Tax Payers) is significantly and positively related to Active Tax Payers on Value Added Tax (ATVAT) (1.827925 ), Active Tax Payers on Company Income Tax (ATCIT) (2.84599) and Active Tax Payers on Petroleum Profit Tax (ATPPT) (2.286043 ), while Tax Compliance (Active Tax Payers) is negatively and insignificantly correlated with Active Tax Payers on Personal Income Tax (ATPIT)( -0.236908 ) Active Tax Payers on Capital Gain Tax (ATCGT)( - 0.236908 ) . It is recommended that Federal Inland Revenue Service should open more offices across the federation to increase the ease of paying taxes, set performance targets for managers of tax offices and sanction for non-performance.

Dynamic Relationships between Non-Oil Revenue, Government Spending and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bahrain

Dynamic Relationships between Non-Oil Revenue, Government Spending and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bahrain

Causality among Oil Revenue, Non-Oil Revenue, Fiscal Risk Factors and Budget Execution Phase in Relation to Debt Overhang and Crowding-Out Theories: Contending Gap Issues

We reviewed literatures on the complex causality among oil revenue, non-oil revenue, fiscal risk factors and budget execution phase in relation to debt overhang and crowding-out theory. The majority of papers surveyed study on investigated the long-run and short-run relationship between fluctuations of oil price ; direction of causality between total revenue and total government spending ; the dynamics of the tax revenue and expenditure nexus, explored the impact of oil prices volatility on the key factors of the government budget, analyse the relationship between public expenditure and debt —little research in the area of the impact of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomics variables. The evidence provided by the empirical literature is that there are indeed heterogeneous responses to position on complex causality among oil revenue, non-oil revenue, fiscal risk factors and budget execution phase in relation to debt overhang and crowding-out theory. It is detected that most study reviewed did not disintegrated relevant revenue: oil revenue (upstream oil revenues, downstream oil revenues, petroleum profit tax(PPT)); non-oil revenue (company income tax (CIT), value added tax (VAT), personal income tax ) and budget risk factors: oil price volatility (OPV)(OPEC Spot OPV, Brent OPV, West Texas Intermediate OPV), public debt (external public debt, domestic public debt), debt servicing (external debt interest service and domestic debt interest service) on budget execution phase (public expenditure: capital budget expenditure and recurrent budget expenditure). It is recommended that research effort should be made in answering the following research questions: what is the effect of oil revenue on budget implementation (public expenditure: capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure)? How non-oil tax revenue is correlates with budget implementation (public expenditure: capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure)? Of what effect is oil price vola

ARDL Approach to Government Revenue and Economic Performance of Nigeria: Post Structural Adjustment Programme

This study examined effect of government revenue on economic performance of Nigeria during the post structural adjustment programme and extracted relevant data in Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin from 1986 to 2018. The data were transformed to annual growth rates and subjected to stationarity test using the augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test so as to ascertain the suitable analytical technique. It was found that percentage change in real gross domestic product was integrated at first difference while percentage changes in oil and non-oil revenue were each integrated at level. Hence, we employed ARDL Bounds test to examine the relationship of the variables and established that oil revenue has no short run effect on economic performance while on the long run, there was positive but insignificant effect on economic performance of Nigeria during the period studied. The result also established that non-oil revenue has positive insignificant effect on economic performance both on short and long run equilibrium positions. However, the study provided evidence that collectively, government revenue has significant effect on economic performance of Nigeria and therefore recommends that government should enact and implement the petroleum industry governance bill and employ revenue on critical infrastructure that would stimulate growth of the economy

THE IMPACT OF NON-OIL PUBLIC REVENUES ON NON-OIL GDP IN IRAQ FOR PERIOD (2004-2021)

The countries of the world, as a result of their long experiences in managing their macroeconomic , have realized that in order to advance the joints of the national economy and develop their domestic product, and then increase the rates of economic growth, this is achieved by expanding the variety of public revenues, whether through developing their traditional revenue sources or by finding new ones. To clarify the foregoing, the research went to the analysis of non-oil revenues and the statement of their impact on the gross domestic product in Iraq for the period (2004-2021). The research has reached conclusions of great importance in this regard, represented in proving the hypothesis from which the research was launched, which indicates the weakness of the impact of non-oil public revenues (taxes and loans) in Iraq on the non-oil gross domestic product during the aforementioned period. This indicates a low contribution of the non-oil productive sectors (agriculture, industry) in the formation of the gross domestic product, and this is due to many reasons, including: the weakness of the productive base of the productive sectors of the Iraqi economy, the dependence of these sectors on traditional production methods, as well as the dependence of the Iraqi economy on its development significantly on oil revenues.

Impact of non-oil tax revenue on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries

This study examined the impact of non-oil tax revenue on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries. Specifically, the study sought to: ascertain the impact of capital-gain tax revenue on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries; determine the impact of custom/excise tax revenue on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries and evaluate the impact of property tax revenue impact on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries. The variables used in the study were capital gain tax revenue (CGT), custom/excise tax revenue (CET), the property tax revenue (PRT) and real GDP growth and were collected over period of 1991 to 2021 from World Bank database (WDI) 2021. Sample of five (5) Anglophone and Francophone countries namely Nigeria, Ghana, Mali, Togo and Burkina-Feso out of twenty (20) Anglophone and Francophone countries were used in the study. The method of data analysis was Generalized panel least square. The empirical results showed that capital gain tax revenue (CGT) has positive and significant impact on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries; property tax revenue (PIT) has positive and significant impact on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries and custom/excise tax revenue (CET) has positive but insignificant impact on economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone countries. The study recommended that Government of Anglophone and Francophone countries should review capital-gain income tax (CGT) collection modality with a view of incorporating public enlightenment programme in respect to capital-gain income tax. The public enlightenment programme should involve awareness campaigns on who should pay, how to compute, where to pay and when to pay CGT.

Impact of Oil and Non-oil Tax Revenue on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined the impact of oil and non-oil tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. few works have covered oil and non-oil taxation and the relationship of petroleum profit tax (PPT), company income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT) and custom and excise duties tax (CED) on Real Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, and data were drawn from the annual reports of Central Bank of Nigeria and Federal Inland Revenue Services publications. Error Correction Model was employed to analyse the data collected after subjecting the series to unit root test and cointegration test. The result of the study showed that PPT with a coefficient of 31.71067 and p-value of 0.0004 and CED with a coefficient of 1.786145 and p-value if 0.0206 had a positive significant relationship with economic growth, while CIT with a coefficient of -14446.50 and p-value of 0.0066 and VAT with a coefficient of -23.33177 and p-value of 0.0001 had a negative significant relationship with economic. The study recommends that taxation be appropriately controlled to boost economic growth, lower inflation, and create jobs in the country. More attention to the channelling PPT and CED revenue collections to infrastructural developments will bring about the economic growth of the country.

Revenue Leakages and Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Place of Forensic Accounting

In this study, the effect of revenue leaks on Nigeria's economic growth from 2011 to 2021 was examined. This was done in accordance with the metrics of Oil Revenue Leakage, Non-oil Revenue Leakage, and Total Revenue Leakage, as well as their effects on Nigeria's economy as measured by Real Gross Domestic Product. The World Bank Statistical Bulletin, the American National Bureau of Statistics and the websites of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Federal Inland Revenue Service were used to create data for the years 2011–2021. The dataset for regression was defined using descriptive statistics, and the stationarity of the data was tested using the unit root method. Correlation analysis and a multiple regression analysis were employed to see how closely the independent variables moved in tandem with the relevant dependent variable. Findings revealed that non-oil revenue leakage had a beneficial impact on economic growth while oil revenue leakage had a negative impact but was not statistically significant. Accordingly, the study's findings on the connection between Nigeria's GDP growth and revenue leaks were inconclusive. The report suggests that to promote a high rate of tax compliance and reduce the twin problems of tax evasion and avoidance to a tolerable level, the government should generate job opportunities for everyone through the smart use of tax resources.

Effect of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Nigeria

The study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on poverty in Nigeria. The study covered 35-year period, spanning from 1986 to 2020 being a liberalized era in Nigerian economy. Fiscal policy being the explanatory variables, was disaggregated into federal government retained revenue (FRR), government capital expenditure (GCE), government recurrent expenditure (GRE),non-oil revenue (NOR), and public debt (PD). Poverty index as a dependent variable, being the unit measure for change in the poverty rate was used as proxy for poverty. Diagnostics test employed were, descriptive statistics to measure the mean, standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness as well as the Jarque-Bera statistics of the variables, while Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was used to test for the stationarity of the data and Autoregressive distributive lag co-integration was employed to test for long-run relationship existing among the variables. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) was used for the analysis since there was a long run relationship existing among the variables and Granger causality test was also employed to measure the directional relationship of the variables under study. The unit root test result showed that all the variables studied were stationary at first difference except NOR and FRR which were stationary at level, and co-integration result showed that fiscal policy has a significant long run relationship with poverty in Nigeria. The ARDL result showed that non-oil revenue showed initial negative government retained revenue but started effect of -3.298345 Lag 3, and then consistent positive effects 6.062662 Lag 4 through the short run periods. The federal government retained revenue showed initial negative effect of -3.739652 Lag 2followed by positive effect of 0.390469 Lag 3 and a return on positive effect of 6.249618 Lag 4 within the short run period. The government capital expenditure had similar trend as the federal retained revenue with a negative effect of -6.786381 in the initial period and first lag and then swung between positive and negative effects within the short run period, while the government recurrent expenditure started out with three year lagged period positive effects of 3.069591, 5.9766088, & 4.406814 but ended with negative effect of -7.978000. It was only the public debt profile that out rightly showed negative effect. Public debt has initial negative effect of -1.323569 and positive effect of 3.415523 Lag 3on the short run. Granger causality showed that non-oil revenue and public debt had causal effects on poverty reduction while federal government retained revenue, capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure do not have causal relationship with poverty reduction in Nigeria. The study concludes that fiscal policy with adjusted R2 of 0.993059 (99%) and p. value of 0.006425 has a significant effect on poverty in Nigeria. It was recommended that revenue and expenditure be increased while public debt be minimized in order to reduce poverty in Nigeria.