ARDL Approach to Government Revenue and Economic Performance of Nigeria: Post Structural Adjustment Programme

Abstract

This study examined effect of government revenue on economic performance of Nigeria during the post structural adjustment programme and extracted relevant data in Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin from 1986 to 2018. The data were transformed to annual growth rates and subjected to stationarity test using the augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test so as to ascertain the suitable analytical technique. It was found that percentage change in real gross domestic product was integrated at first difference while percentage changes in oil and non-oil revenue were each integrated at level. Hence, we employed ARDL Bounds test to examine the relationship of the variables and established that oil revenue has no short run effect on economic performance while on the long run, there was positive but insignificant effect on economic performance of Nigeria during the period studied. The result also established that non-oil revenue has positive insignificant effect on economic performance both on short and long run equilibrium positions. However, the study provided evidence that collectively, government revenue has significant effect on economic performance of Nigeria and therefore recommends that government should enact and implement the petroleum industry governance bill and employ revenue on critical infrastructure that would stimulate growth of the economy