The Effectiveness of Financial Sustainability in Targeting Inflation, Nigeria as a Model for the Period 2004-2040

Abstract

Creating a sovereign fund financed by Nigeria's oil surpluses is a significant objective. Rentier countries tend to see their current operating expenditures increase in tandem with oil revenue growth, surpassing the growth of the gross domestic product. This points to a structural deficit resulting from excessive spending. The government controls the money supply by managing the monetary base, which, in turn, is influenced by foreign reserves. Therefore, the study focused on assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools and financial sustainability in addressing inflation. The goal is to predict these financial variables accurately until 2040 to safeguard monetary stability against fluctuations in oil prices. Utilizing the autoregressive model and moving averages (ARIMA), the study aims to address government spending growth, primarily driven by the monetization of oil revenues. This has led to a structural deficit within the Nigerian economy, which needs to be curbed by the effectiveness of the sovereign fund. This effectiveness is reflected in the concept of financial sustainability, with a focus on targeting inflation through what is known as nominal financial wealth. This translation of economic sustainability into tangible financial wealth does not adequately clarify the increase in non-oil output achieved through investment spending. The latter, in turn, results in actual growth in non-oil revenues, which is essential for addressing inflation through fiscal policy tools. In a rentier economy reliant on oil, achieving economic stability isn't assured solely by a balanced budget. It's crucial that public spending is managed with a level of independence from fluctuations in oil prices. The study's findings demonstrate the relative effectiveness of the financial sustainability forecasting model in influencing inflation targeting in the Nigerian economy.