Causality among Oil Revenue, Non-Oil Revenue, Fiscal Risk Factors and Budget Execution Phase in Relation to Debt Overhang and Crowding-Out Theories: Contending Gap Issues

Abstract

We reviewed literatures on the complex causality among oil revenue, non-oil revenue, fiscal risk factors and budget execution phase in relation to debt overhang and crowding-out theory. The majority of papers surveyed study on investigated the long-run and short-run relationship between fluctuations of oil price ; direction of causality between total revenue and total government spending ; the dynamics of the tax revenue and expenditure nexus, explored the impact of oil prices volatility on the key factors of the government budget, analyse the relationship between public expenditure and debt —little research in the area of the impact of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomics variables. The evidence provided by the empirical literature is that there are indeed heterogeneous responses to position on complex causality among oil revenue, non-oil revenue, fiscal risk factors and budget execution phase in relation to debt overhang and crowding-out theory. It is detected that most study reviewed did not disintegrated relevant revenue: oil revenue (upstream oil revenues, downstream oil revenues, petroleum profit tax(PPT)); non-oil revenue (company income tax (CIT), value added tax (VAT), personal income tax ) and budget risk factors: oil price volatility (OPV)(OPEC Spot OPV, Brent OPV, West Texas Intermediate OPV), public debt (external public debt, domestic public debt), debt servicing (external debt interest service and domestic debt interest service) on budget execution phase (public expenditure: capital budget expenditure and recurrent budget expenditure). It is recommended that research effort should be made in answering the following research questions: what is the effect of oil revenue on budget implementation (public expenditure: capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure)? How non-oil tax revenue is correlates with budget implementation (public expenditure: capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure)? Of what effect is oil price vola