Business cycle shocks according to the monetary approach The Turkish economy is a model for the period 2005-2021

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the impact of fluctuations in monetary indicators on real indicators leading to business cycle shocks in Turkey. Based on the research hypothesis that the Turkish economy is affected by real business cycle shocks, positively or negatively, and varies according to the nature of the economy and the type of shock, whether monetary or real, the interrelation and interference between variables during... The cyclical movement within the economy results in reactions between variables that affect economic activity . To achieve the hypothesis of this hypothesis, the path of the direction of monetary indicators and their fluctuations, such as money supply, interest rates, and private bank credit, was traced, and their impact on the direction of flow of real indicators, such as gross domestic product, investment, and the unemployment rate. The study concluded that fluctuations in monetary indicators cause fluctuations in real indicators, creating two business cycles in The Turkish economy. The first is the result of an external shock represented by the American financial derivatives crisis in 2008 after the opening of the Turkish economy to the outside world. The second represents an internal shock due to the decline in the value of the Turkish lira in 2018. It is also noted that the impact of these monetary shocks is unequal in the real variables of output and investment. And employing according to the extent and depth of the shock occurrence, and the extent of the independence of the monetary authority