Nonferrous Metal Prices Research Articles

Co-movements and spillovers between prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals: A multiscale analysis

This study examines the co-movements between price returns of precious metals (gold and silver) and non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, Lead and zinc). To do this, we use the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and various wavelet. The results show that aluminum is the highest contributor to shocks in the other metal markets whereas Lead and copper are the least contributors. Moreover, silver, copper, zinc and Lead are net receivers of shocks while gold and aluminium are net contributors to shocks in the other markets. In addition, the trajectory of the spillover index among all metals under investigation is influenced by economic crises. On the other hand, the results of wavelet methods reveal strong co-movements between precious and non-ferrous metals under medium and low frequencies where gold and silver are leading the non-ferrous metals. Besides, precious metal-non-ferrous metal pairs are in phase. The results show strong multiscale co-movements among non-ferrous metals. Gold offers better diversification benefits to non-ferrous metals under 2–4 days. The diversification benefits decrease as scale rise. These findings are interesting and entail significant implications to investors, portfolio managers, and policy-makers to inform their decision-making.

Time-varying effects of international nonferrous metal price shocks on China’s industrial economy

This study aims to investigate the relationship between international nonferrous metal prices and industrial economic variables. To this end, we propose a new extended time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model to examine the time-varying characteristics and structural changes of shock effects for the period Q1 2001 to Q1 2018. The results show that the time-varying effects of international nonferrous metal price shocks on China’s industrial economy are different at different time horizons, and the impacts are the most significant in the short term. Additionally, the negative effects of international nonferrous metal price shocks on industrial added value has significant lag effects, which appear in medium and long-term, while the shock effects on PPI and industrial employment are positive. Variance decomposition analysis shows that international nonferrous metal price shocks are an important driving force for industrial economic cycle fluctuations, second only to neutral technology shocks. The explanatory power of international nonferrous metal price shocks for the fluctuations in China’s industrial added value, PPI, and employment significantly increases after the international financial crisis.

The impacts of nonferrous metal price shocks on the macroeconomy in China from the perspective of resource security

In recent years, the price of international nonferrous metals has undergone drastic fluctuations, which could exert significant shock effects on macroeconomic variables. Based on the perspective of resource security, this paper reveals the relationship between the nonferrous metal price shocks and China's macroeconomic variables by establishing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model embedded with nonferrous metal consumption and means of production blocks. The model is based on the optimal decision-making behaviours of three departments that satisfy multiple constraints to realize optimal policy making. Furthermore, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method is applied to verify the shock effects of nonferrous metal price and obtain more robust results. The Bayesian results show that there is consistency among nonferrous metal price shocks, consumer reference shocks, wage bonus shocks, technical shocks, and price-adjusted shocks. The impulse response function results indicate that the stimulation of an international nonferrous metal price increase would have significant positive impacts on the macroeconomic variables of investment, money supply, consumption and total output but negative effects on labour demand. In addition, the impulse responses of wage levels and the rate of inflation to nonferrous metal price shocks present obvious lagging effects.

EMPHASIZING THE ROLE OF E-WASTE IN THE FINANCIAL PROFITABILITY OF LANDFILL MINING PROJECTS

The Landfill Mining (LFM) concept refers to the process of excavating, and sorting solid waste from operating or closed landfills in order to recycle or produce energy from recovered materials, conserve landfill space, and rehabilitate/redevelop contaminated land. Although LFM offers a wide range of environmental and social benefits, LFM projects need to be, at the same time, economically feasible. The latter is heavily influenced from the composition of the waste excavated from the landfill, the quality of recovered materials and the recycling market conditions. This paper aims specifically at exploring the role of e-waste in the profitability of LFM projects and filling this gap in the literature. For the purposes of the analysis, a “typical” Greek landfill site is examined forming different alternatives with respect to the objectives of e-waste recovery and processing and, consequently, the cost and benefits of the LFM operations, based on the findings of the first pilot project of LFM carried out in Greece, at Polygyros landfill. The results of the study show that the presence of e-waste improves the profitability indices. However, it seems that the adoption of more complex recycling and recovery processes leads to no gain in the financial results.These findings are supported by the uncertainty analysis conducted, which reveals that the price and concentration of plastics are the most significant factors, followed by the non-ferrous metal price and concentration. The conclusions of the study should be seen with caution, however. As the international experience shows, the financial success of LFM projects is site-specific and is not assured in all cases. Therefore, it should be clear that further research efforts in the field are warranted to definitely answer the question. Article DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.20319/mijst.2017.32.122144 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-commercial 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA.

Impact of Monetary Supply on Chinese Nonferrous Metal Price Movement*

Employing both classical vector autoregressive methodology and regression models utilizing shock factors constructed with the Hodrick–Prescott filtering method, this paper empirically studies the influence of monetary factors on the price of nonferrous metals and their expectation formation in the Chinese market. Monetary factors are found to significantly positively influence Chinese nonferrous metal prices, and further empirical research reveals that a structural change occurred near August 2006. There is an expectation formation mechanism of lagged futures prices on spot metal prices, and the risk originating primarily from international market is transmitted to Chinese markets.

Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

Structural changes and volatility correlation in nonferrous metal market

The GARCH and DCC-GARCH models are used to study the volatility aggregation and dynamic relevance of China’s three kinds of nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum and zinc) prices incorporating structural changes. The results show that copper, aluminum and zinc returns have many structure breaks points, and nonferrous metals have the great volatility risk during financial crisis. From the results of GARCH with and without structural changes, it is found that the volatility clustering of single nonferrous metal is overvalued when ignoring the structural mutation, and the return of aluminum is the most overvalued, indicating that aluminum market is more susceptible to external shock. Furthermore, it is also found that dynamic volatility correlation exists in the three prices of nonferrous metals, and the structural changes have no significant effect on the volatility correlation of the three nonferrous metals.

Formation of the metal and energy-carrier price clusters on the world market of nonferrous metals in the postcrisis period

The laws of formation of price clusters are revealed upon statistical processing of the data on changing the quotation prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, black oil, gasoline, and natural gas in the postcrisis period from January 1, 2009 to November 1, 2013. It is found that the metal prices entering in the price cluster of nonferrous metals most strongly affect the formation of the nonferrous metal price and that the prices of precious metals and energy carriers correct the exchange price of the metal to some extent but do not determine its formation. Equations are derived to calculate the prices. The results of calculation by these equations agree well with the real nonferrous metal prices in the near future.

基于Markov状态转换的期货铜价格预测及风险控制模型

铜作为一种重要的有色金属，对其他有色金属的价格具有较强的影响力，因此期货铜市场的稳定发展不仅对现货铜市场具有重要作用，同时对其他有色金属市场的稳定，促进国民经济的又好又快发展，都具有重大意义。本文运用两状态的Markov状态变换模型对期货铜的收益率和大幅波动情况进行了预测，取得了良好的效果。 Copper as a kind of important non-ferrous metals, has a strong influence on other non-ferrous metal prices, so the stable development of the copper futures market not only has an important role in spot copper market development, but also has great significance in other non-ferrous met-als market stability and promoting sound and rapid development of the national economy. In this paper, the two-state Markov state transformation model is used to predict the yield and volatility of copper futures with good results.

Price linkage between Chinese and international nonferrous metals commodity markets based on VAR-DCC-GARCH models

Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model, the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange (LME). The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices. However, the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price. The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature, and it lasts for 7–8 trading days. Furthermore, the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying, and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.

The Big Question

The Big Question

Long-term behavior of non-ferrous metal price models with jumps

In this paper, we study the long-term behavior of a class of stochastic non-ferrous metal prices with jumps. Suppose that is a stochastic model for some metal price with Poisson jumps. For a suitable , we prove that converges almost surely as . Finally, the model is applied to forecast the behavior of a two-factor affine model. MSC:60H15, 86A05, 34D35.

Applications of nonferrous metal price volatility to prediction of China's stock market

The aim of the present work is to examine whether the price volatility of nonferrous metal futures can be used to predict the aggregate stock market returns in China. During a sample period from January of 2004 to December of 2011, empirical results show that the price volatility of basic nonferrous metals is a good predictor of value-weighted stock portfolio at various horizons in both in-sample and out-of-sample regressions. The predictive power of metal copper volatility is greater than that of aluminum. The results are robust to alternative measurements of variables and econometric approaches. After controlling several well-known macro pricing variables, the predictive power of copper volatility declines but remains statistically significant. Since the predictability exists only during our sample period, we conjecture that the stock market predictability by metal price volatility is partly driven by commodity financialization.

State Transition Behaviors of SHFE Copper Prices Based on Markovswitching Model

Markov-switching model is a method applied to investigating the structural changes of nonlinear time series. This paper, by constructing three states Markov-switching model, studies the state transition behaviors in the price fluctuation of nonferrous metal from January 2001 to March 2011. Three different kinds of states of SHFE copper price fluctuation are observed: rising sharply, rising mildly and dropping sharply. Each state is characterized with different probability of transition as well as different average duration. The final part presents the causal analysis of the emergence of main state at each phase. The empirical results show that the Markov-switching model can effectively depict fluctuating behavior of non-ferrous metal prices.

Precious Metals in Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Bottom Ash

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) bottom ash contains economically significant levels of silver and gold. Bottom ashes from incinerators at Amsterdam and Ludwigshafen were sampled, processed, and analyzed to determine the composition, size, and mass distribution of the precious metals. In order to establish accurate statistics of the gold particles, a sample of heavy non-ferrous metals produced from 15 tons of wet processed Amsterdam ash was analyzed by a new technology called magnetic density separation (MDS). Amsterdam’s bottom ash contains approximately 10 ppm of silver and 0.4 ppm of gold, which was found in particulate form in all size fractions below 20 mm. The sample from Ludwigshafen was too small to give accurate values on the gold content, but the silver content was found to be identical to the value measured for the Amsterdam ash. Precious metal value in particles smaller than 2 mm seems to derive mainly from waste of electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), whereas larger precious metal particles are from jewelry and constitute the major part of the economic value. Economical analysis shows that separation of precious metals from the ash may be viable with the presently high prices of non-ferrous metals. In order to recover the precious metals, bottom ash must first be classified into different size fractions. Then, the heavy non-ferrous (HNF) metals should be concentrated by physical separation (eddy current separation, density separation, etc.). Finally, MDS can separate gold from the other HNF metals (copper, zinc). Gold-enriched concentrates can be sold to the precious metal smelter and the copper-zinc fraction to a brass or copper smelter.

最近の非鉄金属資源産業の動向

Metal prices have been rising since 2003. During 2003-2006, gold & aluminum prices became two times higher, and copper & zinc prices 4∼5 times higher. In particular, 2006 prices were skyrocketing, and the comparison of selected metal prices between 2005 and 2006 indicates steep rise; zinc (236%), copper (183%), nickel (165%), gold (136%) and aluminum (135%). The current higher metal prices are supported by expanding metal demands by BRICs countries (Brazil, Russia, China and India), and inflow of speculative market into mineral commodities. The current higher metal prices have a great influence on non-ferrous metals industry, and is creating several issues from the viewpoint of countries, corporation, and stake holders. This paper includes (1) current soaring prices of non-ferrous metals, (2) impact of higher metal prices on world major companies and (3) influences of current world mining business on Japanese smelting companies.Along with the soaring metal prices during 2003-2007, world major mining companies (Majors) rose record of high level profits particularly in 2006, which promoting M & A (Merger and Acquisition), and/or higher convergence of Majors. The analysis of influences of world mining trends on Japanese smelting companies will be summarized as is shown below;(1) M & A brought the higher convergence of Majors. For example, copper mining production rates by best 5 companies rose from 32% in 1990 to 41% in 2006.(2) Under the competitive copper concentrate market due to the emergence of China, Japanese smelting companies are confronting with difficulties in TC/RC (Treatment Charge and Refining Charge) negotiations with Majors such as BHP Billiton.

Explaining recent metals price swings: Exchange rates and structural considerations

Movements of metals prices in the 1980s have often appeared to be ‘out of synch’ with economic developments. A model relating metals prices to exchange rates in industrial consumer countries and developing producer countries is presented. Structural supply and demand responses are considered. The diverse exchange rate movements and structural supply-demand adjustments help to explain the fall of prices in the first seven years of the decade and, more recently, the run up of the dollar prices of copper and other non-ferrous metals.

L'exploitation des nodules polymétalliques : une convergence de difficultés

The paper deals with the most important problems involved by the exploitation of polymetallic nodule pavements, mainly those located in the Hawaii-California area. For the last ten years, a large effort have been carried out to define a number of sites, and design or perfect the methods of prospecting, mining, and industrial treatment. Despite the technical and financial means engaged by five consortia including many international companies, we are uncertain about the possibility and necessity to exploiting the nodules. This situation is related to : (1) the still unsolved problems concerning the feasability and the rentability of the nodule mining systems ; (2) the abundance of more competing land exploitations; (3) the situation of the international non-ferrous metal market; (4) the uncertainty relative to the future international sea bed jurisdiction. However, a foreseeable increase of non-ferrous metal price, and the political risks, might encourage a few highly industrialised countries (U.S.A. above all) to exploit some nodule pavements in view to guarantee their strategic supplies.

The Economic Situation: Annual Review: Chapter I. The British Economy: 1966 to Mid-1968

The main statistical propositions about the British economy in 1966—on the movement of output, employment, the balance of payments and prices—are these. National output fell through the year. It is difficult to disentangle its exact course in the two middle quarters because of the seamen's strike. By the last quarter national output had probably fallen something like 1½ per cent from its level in the first quarter, so that in the year 1966 as a whole it was about 1 per cent higher than in 1965. Unemployment was slow to start rising : it did not turn up until May. Thereafter it went up sharply, reaching 1.9 per cent (wholly unemployed, seasonally adjusted) in December. The balance of payments trade deficit, which in 1965 was about half that of 1964, roughly halved again in 1966 : but there was still a deficit—taking current and long-term capital items together— probably of the order of £150 million. So by the end of 1966 the accumulated current and long-term capital deficit for the three years 1964-66 totalled some £1,130 million. Retail prices during the year rose 3.8 per cent; tax changes accounted for about 1½ per cent of this, and in the second half of the year, from June to December, the rise was only 0.7 per cent if tax changes and seasonal fuel and food price changes are excluded. Hourly wage-rates, which in the year to July 1966 had risen 6½ per cent, thereafter levelled off completely. The wholesale price index for manufactured goods was also only fractionally higher in December than in July, and the export price index also levelled off (although here the change-round in non-ferrous metal prices explains some of the flattening) (chart 1).

British War Time Control of Aluminum

Introduction: characteristics of the industry, 18. — The time-schedule of control, 20. — Organization and administration of control, 22. — Maximum prices: virgin aluminum, 26; aluminum alloy, 27; secondary aluminum, 28; aluminum scrap, 28. — Aluminum and other non-ferrous metal prices, 29. — Maintenance and expansion of supply, 32. — Collection and utilization of scrap, 38. — Appeal to housewives, 39. — Control over demand, 41. — Summary and conclusions, 46.