Nonfatal Incidence Research Articles

Abstract 050: Maternal Risk Of Incident Embolism Following Hypertensive Disorders Of Pregnancy Or Pre-pregnancy Hypertension In South Carolina

Introduction: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and pre-pregnancy hypertension are associated with increased maternal morbidity and mortality, and information on racial/ethnic disparities is lacking. The association of HDP and pre-pregnancy hypertension with incident maternal embolism was examined within five years of delivery and for the study period (≤14 years) overall and by race/ethnicity. Methods: Women with a live, singleton birth in South Carolina (2004-2016) aged 12-49 years were included in a retrospective cohort study (n=433,625; non-Hispanic white [NHW; 58.7%], non-Hispanic black [NHB; 31.8%)] and Hispanic [9.5%]). HDP were defined by hospitalization/emergency department (ED) visit data (pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, gestational hypertension) or birth certificates (gestational hypertension). Pre-pregnancy hypertension was also defined by these data sources. Hospitalization/ED visit data and death certificates defined fatal and non-fatal incident embolism. Cox proportional hazards models were used with covariate adjustment. Results: In women with ≥1 pregnancy, 81.6% never experienced pre-pregnancy hypertension or HDP, 0.4% had pre-pregnancy hypertension without superimposed HDP, 15.7% had HDP alone, and 2.3% had pre-pregnancy hypertension with superimposed HDP. Incident embolism risk was elevated ≤14 years after delivery for women with HDP alone (HR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.12-1.30) and with pre-pregnancy hypertension with superimposed HDP (HR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.26-1.65) compared to neither condition. Pre-pregnancy hypertension alone was not associated with incident embolism risk (HR=1.23, 95% CI: 0.84-1.80). The table shows the joint impact of racial/ethnicity and the exposure categories. Discussion: Fatal and non-fatal embolism up to 14 years after delivery was increased for HDP regardless of pre-pregnancy hypertension suggesting a long-term impact. Incident embolism event rates were highest for NHB women and lowest for Hispanic women across all HDP exposure categories.

Number of Social Determinants of Health and Fatal and Nonfatal Incident Coronary Heart Disease in the REGARDS Study.

Social determinants of health (SDH) are individually associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Indices reflecting social deprivation have been developed for population management, but are difficult to operationalize during clinical care. We examined whether a simple count of SDH is associated with fatal incident CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). We used data from the prospective longitudinal REGARDS cohort study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke), a national population-based sample of community-dwelling Black and White adults age ≥45 years recruited from 2003 to 2007. Seven SDH from the 5 Healthy People 2020 domains included social context (Black race, social isolation); education (educational attainment); economic stability (annual household income); neighborhood (living in a zip code with high poverty); and health care (lacking health insurance, living in 1 of the 9 US states with the least public health infrastructure). Outcomes were expert adjudicated fatal incident CHD and nonfatal MI. Of 22 152 participants free of CHD at baseline, 58.8% were women and 42.0% were Black; 20.6% had no SDH, 30.6% had 1, 23.0% had 2, and 25.8% had ≥3. There were 463 fatal incident CHD events and 932 nonfatal MIs over a median of 10.7 years (interquartile range, 6.6 to 12.7). Fewer SDHs were associated with nonfatal MI than with fatal incident CHD. The age-adjusted incidence per 1000 person-years increased with the number of SDH for both fatal incident CHD (0 SDH, 1.30; 1 SDH, 1.44; 2 SDH, 2.05; ≥3 SDH, 2.86) and nonfatal MI (0 SDH, 3.91; 1 SDH, 4.33; ≥2 SDH, 5.44). Compared with those without SDH, crude and fully adjusted hazard ratios for fatal incident CHD among those with ≥3 SDH were 3.00 (95% CI, 2.17 to 4.15) and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.18 to 2.37), respectively; hazard ratios for nonfatal MI among those with ≥2 SDH were 1.57 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.90) and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.41), respectively. A greater burden of SDH was associated with a graded increase in risk of incident CHD, with greater magnitude and independent associations for fatal incident CHD. Counting the number of SDHs may be a promising approach that could be incorporated into clinical care to identify individuals at high risk of CHD.

Omega-3 fatty acids and risk of cardiovascular disease in Inuit: First prospective cohort study

Background and aimsNo prospective study have ever assessed if marine n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids protect Inuit against cardiovascular disease as claimed. It is highly relevant as cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence rates are rising concurrent with a westernization of diet. We aimed to assess the association between blood cell membrane phospholipid content of eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid (EPA + DHA) on CVD risk in Inuit. MethodsWe used data from a cohort of adult Greenlanders with follow-up in national registers. The main outcome was fatal and non-fatal CVD incidence among participants without previous CVD. The continuous effect of EPA + DHA was calculated as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression with age as time scale, adjusting for age, sex, genetic admixture, lifestyle and dietary risk factors. ResultsOut of 3095 eligible participants, 2924 were included. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years, 216 had their first CVD event (8.3 events/1000 person years). No association between EPA + DHA and CVD risk was seen, with IRR = 0.99 per percentage point EPA + DHA increase (95% CI: 0.95–1.03, p = 0.59). No association was seen with risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.97–1.09) and stroke (IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93–1.03) as separate outcomes or for intake of EPA and DHA. ConclusionsWe can exclude that the CVD risk reduction is larger than 21% for individuals at the 75% EPA + DHA percentile compared to the 25% percentile. We need a larger sample size and/or longer follow-up to detect smaller effects and associations with IHD and/or stroke.

Unintentional injuries in Mexico, 1990–2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundTo date, the burden of injury in Mexico has not been comprehensively assessed using recent advances in population health research, including those in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017...

Trends in Fatal and Nonfatal Injuries Among Older Americans, 2004–2017

This study (1) provides annual population estimates of fatal and nonfatal injury incidence rates for older adults for 2004-2017; (2) determines if trends differ by whether the injury was fatal or nonfatal, a fall or nonfall injury, and for nonfatal injuries, minor or serious; and (3) investigates whether trends vary by age, sex, and race. This study used National Vital Statistics System and National Health Interview Survey data covering the population of adults aged ≥65 years for 2004-2017. Fatal injury incidence rates were estimated using negative binomial models; nonfatal injury incidence rates were estimated using Poisson models. All models compared overall risk and trend differences by year, age, sex, and race, and interactions between year and age, sex, and race. All analyses were conducted in 2019. Fatal injury incidence was stable over time, but this apparent stability masked a 35% increase in fatal falls and a 17% decrease in fatal nonfall injuries. Increases in fall-related deaths were concentrated among those aged ≥85 years, men, and white older adults. The trend in fatal falls accelerated over time for those aged ≥85 years and white older adults. By contrast, there was a large increase in nonfatal injury incidence, occurring across all injury types. Nonfatal injury risk grew with age and was higher for women and white older adults, but trends did not vary by age, sex, or race. Large increases in fatal and nonfatal injuries underscore the urgency of national implementation of fall prevention programs and expanding fall prevention efforts to more general injury prevention.

Abstract MP39: Incident Heart Failure Within Five Years of Delivery Among Women With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy or Pre-pregnancy Hypertension in a Diverse Population

Introduction: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and pre-pregnancy hypertension are associated with increased morbidity and mortality for the mother, with potential long-term implications. We investigated the relationships between HDP and pre-pregnancy hypertension with fatal and nonfatal incident maternal heart failure (HF) within five years of delivery, and examined racial/ethnic differences. Methods: A retrospective population-based study was conducted among 433,636 women aged 13-49 (58.7% non-Hispanic white [NHW], 31.8% non-Hispanic black [NHB], 9.5% Hispanic) with a live, singleton birth in South Carolina between 2004-2016. HDP were defined as pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, or gestational hypertension based on hospitalization/emergency department (ED) visit data, or HDP on birth certificates. Pre-pregnancy hypertension was based on hospitalization/ED visit data or birth certificates. Incident HF was defined by hospital/ED visit and death certificate data. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics. Results: Eighteen percent of women were diagnosed with HDP in ≥1 pregnancy (n=78,317; 53.5% NHW, 40.8% NHB, 5.7% Hispanic). Of the 433,636 women, 2.3% had pre-pregnancy hypertension with superimposed HDP, 15.7% had no pre-pregnancy hypertension with HDP, 0.4% had pre-pregnancy hypertension without superimposed HDP and 81.6% had neither condition. Compared to those without pre-pregnancy hypertension or HDP, incident HF risk was increased for women with: no pre-pregnancy hypertension with HDP (HR=4.35; 95% CI: 4.01-4.71), pre-pregnancy hypertension without superimposed HDP (HR=5.07; 95% CI: 3.52-7.29), and pre-pregnancy hypertension with superimposed HDP (HR=6.66; 95% CI: 5.91-7.51). The table shows race/ethnic specific estimates of incident HF risk. Discussion: Women with HDP and pre-pregnancy hypertension were at higher risk for HF or HF death within five years of delivery and the risk varied across racial/ethnic groups.

Abstract TP216: Identifying Common Genetic Variants Associated With Fatal Stroke in Incident Ischemic Stroke Patients

Introduction: There is an unmet need to understand the genetic factors associated with stroke outcome. The purpose of this study is to identify the common genetic variants, if any, associated with incident of ischemic stroke in a community-based population and to determine if any genetic risk can be enriched in fatal stroke patients. Methods: Cases and controls of ischemic stroke were identified by leveraging the comprehensive Electronic Health Record, and endophenotypes, e.g. the fatal or nonfatal stroke was defined by those dying within one month (fatal incidence) or surviving to 12 months (nonfatal incidence) of their first-ever stroke incident. The GWAS was carried out in a nested case-control design by considering all patients with age >79 and without any stroke-related diagnostic codes as low-risk control. A linear mixed regression model (SAIGE) with saddlepoint approximation, adjusted for covariates was conducted to account for the relatedness and case-control imbalance. Results: No genome-wide significant association was identified for ischemic stroke (n=1,179) versus control (n=7,489). When stratifying stroke patients by the fatality (n=61/1,118), rs80094021 (MAF = 0.038; OR=3.332±0.635; p=9.04E-11) and SNPs in LD with, located at an intronic region of TIAM1, were the top associated signal. All these SNPs served as eQTL for TIAM1(β=0.144, p=5.8E-13, eQTLGen). Rs79694970, the second top SNP (MAF = 0.020; OR=4.179±0.931; p=9.27E-09), is located near GPD1L and functions as eQTL for GPD1L(β=-0.279, p=6.1E-28). GPD1L plays a role in the DPD1L-dependent SCN5A phosphorylation pathway, thereby regulating cardiac sodium current. Dysfunction of sodium current can cause fatal ventricular arrhythmia. According to PheWAS data from UK Biobank, rs80094021 showed a moderate association with high cholesterol (p=0.0045), coronary atherosclerosis (p=0.0075), and angina (p=0.012), with the same direction for the minor allele which increased the risk for fatal stroke. rs79694970 were associated with ischemic stroke (large artery atherosclerosis) with p=0.0016. Conclusion: Through stratification of ischemic stroke by fatality some genetic risk factors and genes with biological relevant to the pathogenesis of stroke could be identified.

Receipt of Addiction Treatment After Opioid Overdose Among Medicaid-Enrolled Adolescents and Young Adults

Nonfatal opioid overdose may be a critical touch point when youths who have never received a diagnosis of opioid use disorder can be engaged in treatment. However, the extent to which youths (adolescents and young adults) receive timely evidence-based treatment following opioid overdose is unknown. To identify characteristics of youths who experience nonfatal overdose with heroin or other opioids and to assess the percentage of youths receiving timely evidence-based treatment. This retrospective cohort study used the 2009-2015 Truven-IBM Watson Health MarketScan Medicaid claims database from 16 deidentified states representing all US census regions. Data from 4 039 216 Medicaid-enrolled youths aged 13 to 22 years were included and were analyzed from April 20, 2018, to March 21, 2019. Nonfatal incident and recurrent opioid overdoses involving heroin or other opioids. Receipt of timely addiction treatment (defined as a claim for behavioral health services, for buprenorphine, methadone, or naltrexone prescription or administration, or for both behavioral health services and pharmacotherapy within 30 days of incident overdose). Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with receipt of timely treatment as well as with incident and recurrent overdoses were also identified. Among 3791 youths with nonfatal opioid overdose, 2234 (58.9%) were female, and 2491 (65.7%) were non-Hispanic white. The median age was 18 years (interquartile range, 16-20 years). The crude incident opioid overdose rate was 44.1 per 100 000 person-years. Of these 3791 youths, 1001 (26.4%) experienced a heroin overdose; the 2790 (73.6%) remaining youths experienced an overdose involving other opioids. The risk of recurrent overdose among youths with incident heroin involvement was significantly higher than that among youths with other opioid overdose (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 2.14-3.22), and youths with incident heroin overdose experienced recurrent overdose at a crude rate of 20 700 per 100 000 person-years. Of 3606 youths with opioid-related overdose and continuous enrollment for at least 30 days after overdose, 2483 (68.9%) received no addiction treatment within 30 days after incident opioid overdose, whereas only 1056 youths (29.3%) received behavioral health services alone, and 67 youths (1.9%) received pharmacotherapy. Youths with heroin overdose were significantly less likely than youths with other opioid overdose to receive any treatment after their overdose (adjusted odds ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49-0.83). After opioid overdose, less than one-third of youths received timely addiction treatment, and only 1 in 54 youths received recommended evidence-based pharmacotherapy. Interventions are urgently needed to link youths to treatment after overdose, with priority placed on improving access to pharmacotherapy.

Weight change is associated with increased all-cause mortality and non-cardiac mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

It is unclear whether changes in weight affect subsequent adverse events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) already at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This is a post hoc analysis of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study data to examine the relationship between changes in weight and adverse events. Patients were divided into groups based on changes in body mass index (BMI): stable weight, gain or loss of BMI ≤1.5 kg/m2; moderate weight gain, BMI gain of 1.5-5 kg/m2; pronounced weight gain, BMI gain >5 kg/m2; moderate weight loss, BMI loss of 1.5-5 kg/m2; and pronounced weight loss, BMI loss >5 kg/m2. The primary endpoint of the present study was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints were cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-cardiac mortality. A total of 9372 T2DM patients with a mean follow-up of 8.08 ± 3.00 years were included for analysis. The average change in weight across the entire study population was 1.80 ± 9.00%, representing ~0.448 ± 2.98 kg/m2. Patients with pronounced weight loss had the highest risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.07, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.68-2.55), followed by patients with pronounced weight gain (HR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.02-1.56); patients with stable weight had the lowest risk. An asymmetric V-shaped relationship was observed between changes in BMI and all-cause mortality and non-cardiac mortality. Although no statistical significance was observed in terms of cardiac death and non-fatal MI, a flat V-shaped relationship may exist. Weight was stable in most T2DM patients with high risk of CVD. Weight loss and gain is associated with increased all-cause mortality and non-cardiac mortality. Pronounced weight loss and weight gain is associated with a slight increase in cardiac death and non-fatal MI incidence, which does not reach statistical significance.

Repeat Self-Inflicted Injury Among U.S. Youth in a Large Medical Claims Database

This study describes characteristics of nonfatal self-inflicted injuries and incidence of repeat self-inflicted injuries among a large convenience sample of youth (aged 10-24 years) with Medicaid or commercial insurance. In 2018, Truven Health MarketScan medical claims data were used to identify youth with a self-inflicted injury in 2013 (or index self-inflicted injury) diagnosed in any inpatient or outpatient setting. Patients with 2 years of healthcare claims data (1 year before/after index self-inflicted injury) were assessed. Patient and injury characteristics, repeat self-inflicted injuries ≤1 year, time to repeat self-inflicted injury, and number of emergency department and urgent care facility visits per patient are reported. A regression model assessed factors associated with repeat self-inflicted injuries. Among 4,681 self-inflicted injury patients, 70% were female. More than 71% of patients were treated for comorbidities (50% for depression) ≤1 year preceding the index self-inflicted injury. Poisoning was the most common index self-inflicted injury mechanism (60% of patients). Approximately 52% of patients had one or more emergency department visit and 1% had one or more urgent care facility visit, respectively, during the 2-year observation period. More than 11% of patients repeated self-inflicted injury ≤1 year (and 3% ≤7 days). Repeat self-inflicted injury was associated with younger patient age, being female, a self-inflicted injury event preceding the index self-inflicted injury, index self-inflicted injury treatment setting, and patient comorbidities. Approximately one in ten youth repeated self-inflicted injury within 1 year and nearly half of youth with clinically treated self-inflicted injuries never received care in hospitals or emergency departments. Physicians and families should be aware of risk factors for repeat self-inflicted injury, including mental health comorbidities. Multilevel strategies are needed to prevent youth self-inflicted injuries.

Abstract P218: Fish Consumption is Not Associated With the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease or Stroke

Introduction: Many studies have shown an inverse association of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) from fish intake and supplementation with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. However, findings on the relationship of omega-3 PUFA with nonfatal CHD and stroke are less consistent. Higher doses or prolonged intake may be needed to affect non-fatal cardiovascular events. We hypothesized that among Veterans, greater baseline fish intake is associated with a lower risk of nonfatal CHD and stroke, particularly among those who regularly use omega-3 supplements. Methods: The Million Veteran Program (MVP) is an ongoing nation-wide longitudinal cohort study of U.S. Veterans with self-reported survey, biospecimen, and electronic health record data. Participants who were free of CHD or stroke at the time of the baseline food frequency questionnaire were included in this analysis. Separate Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the associations of fish intake with non-fatal incident CHD and stroke, defined from electronic health records using validated algorithms. Fish intake (serving=3-5 oz.) within the past year was categorized as <1 serving/month, 1-3 servings/month, 1 serving/week, 2-4 servings/week, 5-6 servings/week, and 1+ serving/day. We assessed whether omega-3 fatty acid supplementation (yes/no) modifies these relationships by testing its interaction with fish intake. Multivariable models included demographics and known CHD and stroke risk factors: age, sex, race, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, education, overall dietary pattern, BMI, family history of CHD or stroke, and baseline diabetes, hypertension, and use of statins and fibrates. Results: Among 508,699 MVP participants to date, 210,180 (mean age 66±12 years, 92.1% male) were free of CHD or stroke and had data from the food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Median fish intake was 1 serving/week and 21.7% (45,552 out of 210,180) regularly took omega-3 supplements. Over a median follow-up of 2.9 years, there were 5,991 and 4,244 incident cases of non-fatal CHD and stroke, respectively. Using <1 fish serving/month as the reference, multivariable adjusted HR (95% CI) for CHD were 0.99 (0.91-1.07) for 1-3 servings/month, 1.06 (0.98-1.15) for 1 serving/week, 1.06 (0.96-1.16) for 2-4 servings/week, 1.26 (1.03-1.53) for 5-6 servings/week, and 0.96 (0.68-1.34) for 1+ serving/day, (p-trend=0.08); corresponding values for stroke were 0.95 (0.87-1.05) for 1-3 servings/month, 0.96 (0.87-1.06) for 1 serving/week, 0.99 (0.88-1.11) for 2-4 servings/week, 1.05 (0.83-1.34) for 5-6 servings/week, and 1.23 (0.87-1.74) for 1+ serving/day, (p-trend=0.60). Intake of omega-3 fatty acid supplements did not modify the fish-CHD/stoke relations (p-interaction=0.32 and 0.82, respectively). Conclusions: We observed no consistent association between fish intake and non-fatal CHD or stroke.

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches Toward Assessing the Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease as a Long-Term Diabetes Complication.

The estimation of long-term diabetes complications risk is essential in the process of medical decision making. Guidelines for the management of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) advocate calculating the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk to initiate appropriate treatment. The objective of this study is to investigate the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques toward the development of personalized models able to predict the risk of fatal or nonfatal CVD incidence in T2DM patients. The important challenge of handling the unbalanced nature of the available dataset is addressed by applying novel ensemble strategies. Hybrid Wavelet Neural Networks (HWNNs) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) constitute the primary models for building ensembles following a subsampling approach. Different methods for combining the decisions of the primary models are applied and comparatively assessed. Data from the 5-year follow up of 560 patients with T2DM are used for development and evaluation purposes. The highest discrimination performance (Area Under the Curve (AUC): 71.48%) is achieved by taking into account both the HWNN- and SOM- based primary models' outputs. The proposed method is superior to the Binomial Linear Regression (BLR) model justifying the need to apply more sophisticated techniques in order to produce reliable CVD risk scores.

Higher Plasma Methylglyoxal Levels Are Associated With Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes: A 12-Year Follow-up Study

Methylglyoxal (MGO), a major precursor for advanced glycation end products, is increased in diabetes. In diabetic rodents, inhibition of MGO prevents cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether plasma MGO levels are associated with incident CVD in people with type 1 diabetes is unknown. We included 159 individuals with persistent normoalbuminuria and 162 individuals with diabetic nephropathy (DN) from the outpatient clinic at Steno Diabetes Center. We measured MGO at baseline and recorded fatal and nonfatal CVD over a median follow-up of 12.3 years (interquartile range 7.6-12.5 years). Data were analyzed by Cox regression, with adjustment for sex, age, HbA1c, DN, diabetes duration, smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, and BMI. During follow-up, 73 individuals suffered at least one CVD event (36 fatal and 53 nonfatal). Higher MGO levels were associated with total, fatal, and nonfatal incident CVD (hazard ratios [HRs] 1.47 [95% CI 1.13-1.91], 1.42 [1.01-1.99], and 1.46 [1.08-1.98], respectively). We observed a similar trend for total mortality (HR 1.24 [0.99-1.56]). This study shows for the first time in our knowledge that plasma MGO levels are associated with cardiovascular events in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MGO may explain, at least in part, the increased risk for CVD in type 1 diabetes.

Estimated total costs from non-fatal and fatal bicycle crashes in the USA: 1997–2013

IntroductionEmergency department visits and hospital admissions resulting from adult bicycle trauma have increased dramatically. Annual medical costs and work losses of these incidents last were estimated for 2005 and quality-of-life...

Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Familial Hypercholesterolemia: The SAFEHEART Registry (Spanish Familial Hypercholesterolemia Cohort Study).

Although risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) have been described, models for predicting incident ASCVD have not been reported. Our aim was to use the SAFEHEART registry (Spanish Familial Hypercholesterolemia Cohort Study) to define key risk factors for predicting incident ASCVD in patients with FH. SAFEHEART is a multicenter, nationwide, long-term prospective cohort study of a molecularly defined population with FH with or without previous ASCVD. Analyses to define risk factors and to build a risk prediction equation were developed, and the risk prediction equation was tested for its ability to discriminate patients who experience incident ASCVD from those who did not over time. We recruited 2404 adult patients with FH who were followed up for a mean of 5.5 years (SD, 3.2 years), during which 12 (0.5%) and 122 (5.1%) suffered fatal and nonfatal incident ASCVD, respectively. Age, male sex, history of previous ASCVD, high blood pressure, increased body mass index, active smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lipoprotein(a) levels were independent predictors of incident ASCVD from which a risk equation with a Harrell C index of 0.85 was derived. The bootstrap resampling (100 randomized samples) of the original set for internal validation showed a degree of overoptimism of 0.003. Individual risk was estimated for each person without an established diagnosis of ASCVD before enrollment in the registry by use of the SAFEHEART risk equation, the modified Framingham risk equation, and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. The Harrell C index for these models was 0.81, 0.78, and 0.8, respectively, and differences between the SAFEHEART risk equation and the other 2 were significant (P=0.023 and P=0.045). The risk of incident ASCVD may be estimated in patients with FH with simple clinical predictors. This finding may improve risk stratification and could be used to guide therapy in patients with FH. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02693548.

Impact of long-hours family caregiving on non-fatal coronary heart disease risk in middle-aged people: Results from a longitudinal nationwide survey in Japan.

The effects of family caregiving, especially long-hours caregiving, on coronary heart disease (CHD) are debatable. We examined the impact of family caregiving on incident non-fatal CHD. We used data from the Longitudinal Survey of Middle-Aged and Elderly Persons from 2005 to 2010, a nationwide panel survey for Japanese people aged 50-59 years in 2005 (baseline). After we excluded non-respondents and people with missing key variables at baseline, 25 121 individuals without CHD, stroke or cancer were followed up for a mean of 4.6 years. The exposure was assessed at baseline by three indicators: (i) family caregiving; (ii) hours spent caregiving; and (iii) kinship type of care recipient. The non-fatal CHD incidence was identified according to questionnaire responses from 2006 to 2010. Cox's proportional hazards analysis did not show a statistically significant association between family caregiving and incident non-fatal CHD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-1.40). Caregivers who spent 20-69 h per week on care showed a statistically significant increased risk for non-fatal CHD (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.23-2.58) compared with non-caregivers; whereas this increased risk was statistically significant only among women (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.27-3.08), but not among men (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.67-2.71). Kinship type of care recipient did not make a significant difference to the effects of family caregiving on incident non-fatal CHD. Long-hours family caregiving could be an independent risk factor for incident non-fatal CHD among middle-aged women in Japan. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 2109-2115.

The Relationship between Environmental Tobacco Smoke Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease and the Potential Modifying Effect of Diet in a Prospective Cohort among American Indians: The Strong Heart Study.

American Indians experience high rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) has been linked to CVD, possibly due to pro-inflammatory and oxidative stress pathways. We examined the relationship between self-reported exposure to ETS and fatal and nonfatal CVD incidence using Cox proportional hazards models among 1843 non-smoking American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Study. We also evaluated potential modifying effects of several dietary nutrients high in anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant properties with ETS exposure on fatal and nonfatal CVD by creating interaction terms between ETS exposure and the dietary variable. Participants exposed to ETS had a higher hazard (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.44) for developing CVD compared to persons not exposed. Interaction analyses suggested stronger effects of ETS on CVD incidence among those consuming diets lower in vitamin E as compared to those consuming higher amounts, particularly on the additive scale. Additional research is recommended to clarify whether public health prevention strategies should simultaneously target reductions in ETS exposures and improvements in diets that may exceed the expected benefits of targeting these risk factors separately.

Stem cell therapy for chronic ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure.

A promising approach to the treatment of chronic ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure is the use of stem cells. The last decade has seen a plethora of randomised controlled trials developed worldwide, which have generated conflicting results. The critical evaluation of clinical evidence on the safety and efficacy of autologous adult bone marrow-derived stem/progenitor cells as a treatment for chronic ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. We searched CENTRAL in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, and four ongoing trial databases for relevant trials up to 14 December 2015. Eligible studies were randomised controlled trials comparing autologous adult stem/progenitor cells with no cells in people with chronic ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. We included co-interventions, such as primary angioplasty, surgery, or administration of stem cell mobilising agents, when administered to treatment and control arms equally. Two review authors independently screened all references for eligibility, assessed trial quality, and extracted data. We undertook a quantitative evaluation of data using random-effects meta-analyses. We evaluated heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and explored substantial heterogeneity (I2 greater than 50%) through subgroup analyses. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We created a 'Summary of findings' table using GRADEprofiler (GRADEpro), excluding studies with a high or unclear risk of selection bias. We focused our summary of findings on long-term follow-up of mortality, morbidity outcomes, and left ventricular ejection fraction measured by magnetic resonance imaging. We included 38 randomised controlled trials involving 1907 participants (1114 cell therapy, 793 controls) in this review update. Twenty-three trials were at high or unclear risk of selection bias. Other sources of potential bias included lack of blinding of participants (12 trials) and full or partial commercial sponsorship (13 trials).Cell therapy reduced the incidence of long-term mortality (≥ 12 months) (risk ratio (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21 to 0.87; participants = 491; studies = 9; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence). Periprocedural adverse events associated with the mapping or cell/placebo injection procedure were infrequent. Cell therapy was also associated with a long-term reduction in the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.97; participants = 345; studies = 5; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence) and incidence of arrhythmias (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.99; participants = 82; studies = 1; low-quality evidence). However, we found no evidence that cell therapy affects the risk of rehospitalisation for heart failure (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.09; participants = 375; studies = 6; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence) or composite incidence of mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and/or rehospitalisation for heart failure (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.08; participants = 141; studies = 3; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence), or long-term left ventricular ejection fraction when measured by magnetic resonance imaging (mean difference -1.60, 95% CI -8.70 to 5.50; participants = 25; studies = 1; low-quality evidence). This systematic review and meta-analysis found low-quality evidence that treatment with bone marrow-derived stem/progenitor cells reduces mortality and improves left ventricular ejection fraction over short- and long-term follow-up and may reduce the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction and improve New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification in people with chronic ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. These findings should be interpreted with caution, as event rates were generally low, leading to a lack of precision.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

Evidence indicates that aspirin is effective for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) but also increases the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) and cerebral hemorrhages. To assess the net balance of benefits and harms from routine aspirin use across clinically relevant age, sex, and CVD risk groups. Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. 3 systematic evidence reviews. Men and women aged 40 to 79 years with a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or less, and no history of CVD and without elevated risk for GI or cerebral hemorrhages that would contraindicate aspirin use. Lifetime, 20 years, and 10 years. Clinical. Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d). Primary outcomes are length and quality of life measured in net life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. Benefits include reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal CVD, CRC incidence, and CRC mortality. Harms include increased fatal and nonfatal GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke. Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years are positive for most adults initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 69 years, and life expectancy gains are expected for most men and women initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 59 years and 60 to 69 years with higher CVD risk. Harms may exceed benefits for persons starting aspirin in their 70s and for many during the first 10 to 20 years of use. Results are most sensitive to the relative risk for hemorrhagic stroke and CVD mortality but are affected by all relative risk estimates, baseline GI bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates, and disutilities associated with aspirin use. Aspirin effects by age are uncertain. Stroke benefits are conservatively estimated. Gastrointestinal bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates account only for age and sex. Lifetime aspirin use for primary prevention initiated at younger ages (40 to 69 years) and in persons with higher CVD risk shows the greatest potential for positive net benefit. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Nonfatal injury incidence and risk factors among middle school students from four Polynesian countries: The Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa, and Tonga

IntroductionThe burden of injuries in Pacific Island countries is understudied despite the known challenges associated with many residents having limited access to advanced medical and surgical care when they sustain a serious injury. This paper examines nonfatal injuries among early adolescent schoolchildren (those primarily ages 13–15 years) from four Polynesian countries. MethodsSelf-reported data from the 5507 middle school students who were randomly sampled for participation in the nationwide Global School-based Student Health Surveys (GSHS) in the Cook Islands (in the year 2009), Niue (2010), Samoa (2011), and Tonga (2010) were analysed with various statistical methods including regression models. Injuries were defined by the GSHS questionnaire as serious if they resulted in a full day of missed school or other usual activities or required medical treatment. ResultsThe proportion of students reporting a serious injury in the past year was 43.1% in the Cook Islands, 40.8% in Niue, 73.8% in Samoa, and 49.1% in Tonga. In the Cook Islands and Samoa, boys reported more injuries than girls (p<0.01). The most common types of serious injuries reported were cuts and other skin trauma; broken bones and dislocated joints; and concussions, other head injuries, or difficulty breathing. The most common causes of serious injuries reported were falls; motor vehicle accidents; and attacks, fights, or abuse. For both boys and girls, being bullied in the past month, being physically attacked or in a physical fight in the past year, using alcohol and tobacco, skipping school, and having anxiety or loneliness were associated with a higher likelihood of injuries. ConclusionsSchool-based health education programs targeting prevention of intentional and unintentional injuries may benefit from emphasising Polynesian values and promoting personal mental and physical health, healthy behaviours, and healthy family and community relationships.