Newmark Analysis Research Articles

How water, temperature, and seismicity control the preconditioning of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel)

Abstract. The anticipation of massive rock slope failures is a key mitigation strategy in a changing climate and environment requiring a precise understanding of pre-failure process dynamics. Here we exploit >4 years of multi-method high-resolution monitoring data from a large rock slope instability close to failure. To quantify and understand the effect of possible drivers (water from rain and snowmelt, internal rock fracturing, and earthquakes), we correlate slope displacements with environmental data, local seismic recordings, and earthquake catalogues. During the snowmelt phase, displacements are controlled by meltwater infiltration with high correlation and a time lag of 4–9 d. During the snow-free summer, rainfall induces accelerations with a time lag of 1–16 h for up to several days without a minimum activation rain sum threshold. Rock fracturing, linked to temperature and freeze–thaw cycles, is predominantly near the surface and unrelated to displacement rates. A classic Newmark analysis of recent and historic earthquakes indicates a low potential for immediate triggering of a major failure at the case site, unless it is already very close to failure. Seismic topographic amplification of the peak ground velocity (PGV) at the summit ranges from a factor of 2–11 and is spatially heterogeneous, indicating a high criticality of the slope. The presented in-depth monitoring data analysis enables a comprehensive rockfall driver evaluation and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in precipitation intensity and frequency, may alter the preconditioning of major rock slope failures.

The analysis of seismic induced progressive instability and failure mechanisms: A case study

The 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake triggered a catastrophic landslide, i.e., the Daguangbao (DGB) landslide (1.2 ✕ 109 m3). Its shear failure occurred within a deep-seated (average depth of 400 m) saturated carbonate bedding fault in the Paleozoic Formation. The frequent seismic events in the tectonic belt make the landslide initiation mechanism more complex. Shake table tests were conducted on the DGB landslide to understand the coupling effect of multiple earthquakes, geology and hydrology. The results showed that the multiple earthquakes weakened the friction coefficient as the Boltzmann function on the sliding surface of the landslide. The friction law of the basal surface related to seismic energy was established and incorporated into the Newmark analysis. And the seismic energy consumed in the steep scarp surface release of landslide during an earthquake is also considered. It found that the traditional Newmark model overestimates the time for earthquake-induced landslides due to ignoring the steep scarp surface release stage. It proposed that evaluating pre-earthquake induced slope damage, and critical seismic energy for triggering co-seismic landslides are important for predicting post-seismic landslides.

Development of an FEA program with full-size stiffness and mass matrices for dynamic analysis of high-rise buildings: A comparison with SAP2000

Computational methods used for estimation the effects of dynamic loading on buildings need to be developed and updated to ensure structural safety. A computer program, YAY2020-Dynamic was developed using the Matlab interpreter to calculate the effect of dynamic forces on planar structures. The program successfully estimated the impact of dynamic forces on structures. The main feature of the program is that it uses mass and stiffness matrices with both diagonal and non-diagonal elements. Furthermore, the developed program uses 12 × 12 matrices in shear formulations to include moment and rotation effects perpendicular to the plane. These features were not used in the literature and have not been studied on high-rise buildings before. Modal analysis (Eigen analysis) and time history analysis (Newmark analysis) are performed in the program for dynamic analysis of high-rise buildings. A special formulation is used to include angular and rotation freedom parameters in the mass and stiffness matrices of plate elements. These matrices were presented for the first time in this study as 12 × 12 matrices with diagonal and non-diagonal elements. The core principle of the program is to make more realistic modeling by considering as many mechanisms as possible, instead of making assumptions and neglecting some parameters that limit representing real behavior. To determine the performance of the developed program, two buildings (a 10-story and a 20-story) were examined. According to the results, YAY2020-Dynamic determined that the examined building models were more rigid and had fewer deformations than the estimated by SAP2000. Therefore, the use of YAY2020-Dynamic in design stages can help determine the required member strengths more precisely and choose the proper building materials while considering the safety factors.

A slow and complex landslide under static and seismic action

A dam construction project for the heightening of a dam is threatened by a large landslide located in the Spanish Southern Pyrenees. A marked syncline structure, folding a flysch formation overlying a marl substratum, is the main geological feature of the unstable valley slope. The landslide is characterized by two main and superimposed slip surfaces which follow the bedding layers. The motion observed is very slow and its acceleration can be related to rainfall regimes and changes in loading condition due to excavations.The paper provides an insight into the complexities associated with stability and kinematic evolution of a landslide under static and dynamic actions. Simplified procedures are proposed to predict the complex landslide behaviour. A comprehensive hydrogeological model is developed to relate rainfall history and water pressure which incorporates available data about the anisotropic permeability of flysch and the natural drainage obtained from pumping test and insitu measurements. The stability analysis of the slope focuses on the discussion of safety factors and their practical implication not only in terms of static limit equilibrium, but also on creeping velocity. The latter was evaluated under the simplified assumption of planar landslide and invoking the strain-rate effects on residual strength. A derived analytical expression provides a relationship between Safety Factor and creeping velocity. Under such hypothesis, the increment of the strength required to avoid predicting unrealistic landslide acceleration should be imposed for a lower range of shear velocity than the usual value imposed in the laboratory shearing tests.The seismic response of the landslide is also analysed. A Newmark's approach and a stress-strain finite element (FE) analysis are compared, with special emphasis on the effect of the superimposed slip surfaces on the dynamic landslide response. To do that, the Newmark's analysis has been extended to two overlaying sliding surfaces with independent strength properties and pore water pressure. It is concluded that assuming a single deeper sliding surfaces may underestimate the co-seismic permanent displacement. The comparison of two-block Newmark's analysis with two-dimensional elastoplastic FE approach highlights the effect of geometry in the landslide motion.

Liquefaction within a bedding fault: Understanding the initiation and movement of the Daguangbao landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (Ms = 8.0)

The Daguangbao landslide was the most catastrophic mass movement triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with a magnitude scale of Ms. 8.0. The landslide, which was 4.6 km long and 3.7 km wide, had a volume of approximately 1.2 × 109 m3. Since its occurrence, many assumptions regarding its initiation and movement mechanisms have been made; however, the mechanisms remain unclear. Our recent field evidence suggested that the Daguangbao landslide occurred along a saturated fault parallel to the bedding in the Paleozoic carbonate strata. We therefore examined whether the shear behavior of the fault material could have favored the initiation and movement of the Daguangbao landslide. First, we performed monotonic and cyclic loading tests on samples taken from the bedding fault breccia using ring-shear apparatus. We then conducted Newmark displacement analysis to examine the initiation and motion of the landslide. The laboratory results showed that the carbonate fault breccia on the sliding layer of the landslide has a high liquefaction potential and the friction coefficient at its steady-state under undrained condition could be as small as 0.04. We also found that with increase of shear displacement, the friction coefficients can at first exponentially increase to the peak-failure value and then exponentially decrease to the steady-state value. These relationships between the friction and shear displacements were incorporated in the Newmark analysis of landslide initiation and motion. The numerical calculation results showed that the landslide occurred 36 s after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake origin time (at its hypocenter), and the landslide mass, with a speed of 94 m/s, collided with a riverbank in the 76th second. We infer that, in addition to the strong seismic force, pore-water pressure built up within the bedding fault during the seismic shaking, enhancing the instability of the Daguangbao slope, and a further increase of pore-water pressure with progress of sliding elevated the mobility of the landslide.

MODIFIED NEWMARK APPROACH FOR EVALUATION OF EARTHQUAKE–INDUCED DISPLACEMENT OF EARTH DAM- APPLYING FOR RE-DIVISION OF SLIDING MASS

The conventional Newmark sliding block approach for evaluating the earthquake-induced displacement of earth dams is widely used in practice. However, the change in the position of the sliding mass with time when a slip occurs is not taken into account in the conventional Newmark approach when calculating the seismic displacement during an earthquake. Thus, a modified Newmark analysis is presented here in order to consider the influence of the changing position of the sliding mass on the estimated seismic displacement of an earth dam by re-dividing the sliding mass. A comparison of the results of the conventional and the modified Newmark approaches shows that ignoring the change in the sliding mass position over time can lead to the overestimation of the sliding displacement, especially if the Fellenius method, a less rigorous method, is used for evaluating the yield seismic intensity. In this study, the modified Newmark approach, using a relatively easy method among strict methods (simplified Bishop method), leads to a more realistic assessment of the permanent displacement in seismic slope stability analyses.

Numerical evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading with an advanced plasticity model for liquefiable sand

Two different approaches are employed to predict the magnitude of lateral spreading induced by liquefaction using a two-dimensional finite difference analysis with an advanced plasticity constitutive model for the liquefiable sand. One approach uses the advanced plasticity model to directly predict lateral spreading. The other approach is a hybrid approach that first uses the advanced plasticity model to calculate the time to triggering of liquefaction and then uses a Newmark-type displacement analysis to predict the magnitude of lateral spreading. To evaluate the accuracy of these methods for predicting lateral spreading displacements, both approaches were applied to five well-documented case histories of lateral spreading. Comparison of the calculated and reported displacements shows that the hybrid approach that calculates lateral spreading with a Newmark analysis that employs the free field ground surface motions starting from the time at which liquefaction is triggered was, on the average, the most accurate approach. The two-dimensional finite difference analysis gave generally conservative results, yielding larger displacement than the reported value. While the uncertainty associated with both methods is very high, based upon the five case histories analyzed herein it appears that the two-dimensional finite difference analysis can be used with good confidence to predict a conservative value for the magnitude of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading if the parameters that govern lateral spreading are well known.

Application of the Newmark Analysis Method in Stability Evaluation of Submarine Slope

The Newmark seismic time-history analysis method can take into account the effects of natural seismic peak ground acceleration (PGA), duration, and seismic frequency; seismic wave can be input into the method for simulation. This study calculates the dynamic response of the typical seabed slope of Caofeidian in the event of a similar Tangshan earthquake, and the displacement value can be used to quantitatively reflect the influence of the earthquake on the slope of the site. The allowable displacement value of the top of buildings or submarine slope can be used as a marker of security and stability analysis, which can further provide important reference for similar slope stability evaluation and offshore engineering construction.

Newmark Analysis of Lateral Spreading Induced by Liquefaction

ABSTRACT Newmark analyses of lateral spreading induced by liquefaction were conducted using a database of 22 documented case histories. Site stratigraphy and SPT values for the liquefiable soil were based upon the case-history documentation. The yield acceleration was estimated based on post-liquefaction residual shear strength estimated using three different correlations with SPT blow count. Representative acceleration time histories were selected from time histories recorded in the earthquake. The probabilistic analysis using a truncated normal distribution indicates that the lateral spreading displacement calculated using the Olson and Johnson correlation will be no more than twice the reported displacement with a confidence of 97%.

An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides

Abstract. Coseismic landslides can destroy buildings, dislocate roads, sever pipelines, and cause heavy casualties. It is thus important but challenging to accurately map the hazards posed by coseismic landslides. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface and model the coseismic response of slopes. This paper proposes an improved Newmark analysis for mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides by considering the roughness and effect of the size of the potential slide surfaces. This method is verified by data from a case study on the 2014 Mw 6.1 (the United States Geological Survey) Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province, China. Permanent displacements due to the earthquake ranged from 0 to 122 cm. The predicted displacements were compared with a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variation in the hazards of coseismic landslides using the certainty factor model. The confidence levels of coseismic landslides indicated by the certainty factors ranged from −1 to 0.95. A hazard map of the coseismic landslide was generated based on the spatial distribution of values of the certainty factor. A regression curve relating the predicted displacement and the certainty factor was drawn, and can be applied to predict the hazards of coseismic landslides for any seismic scenario of interest. The area under the curve was used to compare the improved and the conventional Newmark analyses, and revealed the improved performance of the former. This mapping procedure can be used to predict the hazards posed by coseismic landslides, and provide guidelines for decisions regarding the development of infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction.

Teknik dan Metode Penerjemahan Istilah Artistik Dalam manga Nodame Cantabile Volume 1- 25 Karya Tomoko Ninomiya

This research, entitled “Translations technique and methods of artistic terms on manga Nodame Cantabile Volume 1-25 by Tomoko Ninomiya”, used the theory of translation techniques by Molina and Albir (2002), theory of translation methodes by Newmark (1988) and componential analysis by Nida and Taber (1969). Based on analysis result, there are 126 data of artistic terms. According to 18 translation techniques by Molina and Albir, 12 techniques were used for translate artistic terms on manga Nodame Cantabile Volume 1-25 by Tomoko Ninomiya, namely adaptation, amplification, borrowing, description, discursive creatios, generalization, linguistics amplification, linguistics compression, literal translation, calque, established equivalent, and transpotition. The data was also analyzed to determine the method of translation. Translation method that was used in this research is literal translation by Newmark (1988). From 126 data, there are 10 data caused the shift of meaning of artistic terms that analyzed by the theory of Nida and Taber (1969).

Lateral spreading within a limit equilibrium framework: Newmark sliding blocks with degrading yield accelerations

Lateral spreading is a prevalent geotechnical problem associated with earthquake-induced liquefaction, often occurring at gentle slopes of loose, saturated sand near bodies of water and causing significant damage to buried utilities. This study presents a deterministic approach to analyse lateral spreading behaviour using a modified Newmark analysis applied to a column of sliding blocks with degrading yield accelerations. The proposed sliding column approach exhibits reasonable agreement with a well-instrumented centrifuge test evaluating free-field lateral spreading. The analysis captures lateral spreading displacement throughout a soil profile, as well as shear strains and simplified earth pressures. The effect of light cementation is investigated, demonstrating notable arrest of lateral spreading displacements and pressures. Free-face effects are also evaluated for a liquefying layer of soil beneath a gentle, competent crustal slope, demonstrating notable lateral spreading behaviour with larger inclinations of liquefying soil. However, lateral spreading still occurred when considering a horizontal liquefying layer, realised due to inertial loading and differences between confining boundary forces. The approach can be utilised to efficiently analyse lateral spreading across a large spatial extent.

Macro-Level Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Sikkim, India Based On GIS Technique

This paper presents a macro-level seismic landslide hazard assessment for the entire state of Sikkim, India, based on the Newmark's methodology. The slope map of Sikkim was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM). Seismic shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock level was estimated from deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), considering point source model. Peak horizontal acceleration at the surface level for the study area was estimated based on nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. The PHA at surface was considered to induce driving forces on slopes, thus causing landslides. Knowing the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard assessment for each grid point was carried out using Newmark's analysis. The critical static factor of safety required to resist landslide for the PHA (obtained from deterministic analysis) was evaluated and its spatial variation throughout the study area is presented. For any slope in the study area, if the in-situ (available) static factor of safety is greater than the static factor of safety required to resist landslide as predicted in the present study, that slope is considered to be safe.

Identification of co-seismic ground motion due to fracturing and impact of the Tsaoling landslide, Taiwan

Earthquakes can generate seismic disturbances that propagate vast distances and trigger landslides that can achieve high-speeds. It remains difficult to identify the co-seismic ground motion of these landslides and their triggering earthquakes. In this paper, we report on the analysis of co-seismic ground motions generated by the initiating fracture and deposition impact of the Tsaoling landslide. The landslide, with a source volume of 125×106m3, was triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. The ground motion was recorded by a strong ground motion station, CHY080, near the scar area. The polarization of the seismic waves indicates that the peak acceleration was parallel to the dip direction. Modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), with additional clustering analysis, was applied to decompose the seismic signals. Two instances were found in the seismic records of a series of peculiar wave packets, with the first being associated with the landslide initiation and the second the landslide impact on the deposit valley. To confirm the first landslide breakage, the decomposed signals were compared with the predictions of the analytic elastic wave model and Newmark analysis. The landslide impact was verified with a computational fluid dynamic simulation. Comparison between the EEMD decomposed signals, elastic wave theory, Newmark rigid body analysis, and numerical simulation demonstrates the claimed landslide motion.

Initiation, movement, and run-out of the giant Tsaoling landslide — What can we learn from a simple rigid block model and a velocity–displacement dependent friction law?

Tsaoling landslide is the largest and best documented landslide among several large landslides induced by the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake. Pliocene sedimentary rocks of about 125Mm3 in volume slid along very flat bedding planes dipping by 14° with an average speed of 35–40m/s for about 1650m, before hitting the bank of the Chinshui River during the landslide. Detailed analysis of DTMs before and after the earthquake using a GIS software leads to an accurate determination of the locations of the centroids of landslide mass, revealing the horizontal and vertical displacements of the 2524m and 524m, respectively. Those displacements and landslide mass give an apparent friction coefficient of 0.21 and the release of the potential energy of 1.6×1015J. We conducted rotary-shear high-velocity friction experiments on fault gouge from bedding-parallel faults under semi-wet conditions and at 3MPa normal stress corresponding to the overburden pressure of the landslide mass. We also compiled reported data on the frictional properties on shale powders and fault gouge from the landslide site under both dry and wet conditions, and proposed a velocity–displacement dependent friction law that can describe most experimental data. Newmark analysis of landslide motion with six scenarios for different landslide materials and conditions, assuming a simple rigid block sliding and using measured frictional parameters, revealed that the landslide did not occur with dry frictional properties, and that the landslide occurred at 38–39s with accumulated displacements of 0.62m–1.09m and reached at the river bank at 82–87s after the generation of Chi-Chi earthquake at its epicenter. Those timings are consistent with high-frequency signals at 32–40s and at 76s recorded at a nearby seismic station and with a survivor's witness that the landslide initiated 10s after he felt strong ground motion, possible S wave arrival at 25.2s. Slip-weakening is essential in initiating the landslide and low friction coefficient (0.08–0.1) allowed high-speed of the landslide possible. The landslide was caused by a few peaks of northeast-oriented strong accelerations of the ground motion. Frictional work during the sliding of the landslide mass was estimated to be of about 23% of potential energy, and the rest of the released energy is likely to have been consumed during the stopping phase of the landslide after hitting the river bank in complex processes such as fragmentation, heat dissipation, and spreading of the landslide deposits.

Predictive model of Arias intensity and Newmark displacement for regional scale evaluation of earthquake-induced landslide hazard in Greece

Defining the possible scenario of earthquake-induced landslides, Arias intensity is frequently used as a shaking parameter, being considered the most suitable for characterising earthquake impact, while Newmark׳s sliding-block model is widely used to predict the performance of natural slopes during earthquake shaking. In the present study we aim at providing tools for the assessment of the hazard related to earthquake-induced landslides at regional scale, by means of new empirical equations for the prediction of Arias intensity along with an empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacements based on Newmark׳s model. The regression data, consisting of 205 strong motion recordings relative to 98 earthquakes, were subdivided into a training dataset, used to calculate equation parameters, and a validation dataset, used to compare the prediction performance among different possible functional forms and with equations derived from previous studies carried out for other regions using global and/or regional datasets. Equations predicting Arias intensities expected in Greece at known distances from seismic sources of defined magnitude proved to provide more accurate estimates if site condition and focal mechanism influence can be taken into account. Concerning the empirical estimator of Newmark displacements, we conducted rigorous Newmark analysis on 267 one-component records yielding a dataset containing 507 Newmark displacements, with the aim of developing a regression equation that is more suitable and effective for the seismotectonic environment of Greece and could be used for regional-scale seismic landslide hazard mapping. The regression analysis showed a noticeable higher goodness of fit of the proposed relations compared to formulas derived from worldwide data, suggesting a significant improvement of the empirical relation effectiveness from the use of a regionally-specific strong-motion dataset.

Triggering and runaway processes of catastrophic Tsaoling landslide induced by the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake, as revealed by high-velocity friction experiments

Pliocene sedimentary rocks of about 130 Mm3 in volume slid along bedding planes dipping by 14°, with an average speed of about 35 m/s, during the Tsaoling landslide. We conducted friction experiments to reproduce the initiation processes of this landslide, by idealizing landslide movements during the earthquake as accelerating/decelerating motion. Experiments were done on shale from the field, at 3 MPa normal stress corresponding to the overburden pressure. Results indicate that the accelerating/decelerating motion causes weakening and strengthening at each oscillation cycle and results in overall slip weakening which can be approximated as an exponential slip weakening. Behaviors during oscillatory slip are fairly similar to those during sliding at constant slip rates. Newmark analysis with measured frictional properties reveals that the landslide can be triggered with wet gouge properties, but the landslide motion stops with parameters for dry shale gouge. Delayed initiation of the landslide is consistent with a survivor's witness.

Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Karnataka Using GIS Technique

Landslide hazards are a major natural disaster that affects most of the hilly regions around the world. In India, significant damages due to earthquake induced landslides have been reported in the Himalayan region and also in the Western Ghat region. Thus there is a requirement of a quantitative macro-level landslide hazard assessment within the Indian subcontinent in order to identify the regions with high hazard. In the present study, the seismic landslide hazard for the entire state of Karnataka, India was assessed using topographic slope map, derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The available ASTER DEM data, resampled to 50 m resolution, was used for deriving the slope map of the entire state. Considering linear source model, deterministic seismic hazard analysis was carried out to estimate peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock, for each of the grid points having terrain angle 10A degrees and above. The surface level PHA was estimated using nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. Based on the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard for each grid point was estimated in terms of the static factor of safety required to resist landslide, using Newmark's analysis. The analysis was carried out at the district level and the landslide hazard map for all the districts in the Karnataka state was developed first. These were then merged together to obtain a quantitative seismic landslide hazard map of the entire state of Karnataka. Spatial variations in the landslide hazard for all districts as well as for the entire state Karnataka is presented in this paper. The present study shows that the Western Ghat region of the Karnataka state is found to have high landslide hazard where the static factor of safety required to resist landslide is very high.

A method for predicting co-seismic displacements of slopes for landslide hazard zonation

Landslide hazard zonation based on co-seismic slope displacements has been applied in many regions. As there are a large number of slopes to be analyzed and it is impossible to obtain actual acceleration time histories for each of these slopes, the co-seismic displacements are often estimated by some simple empirical formulas, which are derived through regression analysis based on a certain set of acceleration time histories and can only be validly applied to regions similar to where the time history data were recorded. In this paper, treating the ground motion as a random process, a formula for calculating the expected value of Newmark displacement with the acceleration amplitude spectrum as input is derived. Since the formula is theoretically equivalent to the double integration procedure in a rigorous Newmark analysis, which has also been verified by careful comparisons of the calculated results, it can be applied for different regions. By combining the formula with ground motion simulations, a new method for estimating co-seismic slope displacements is proposed. The application of the method in the seriously struck area by Wenchuan earthquake shows that it is an effective tool for predicting co-seismic slope displacements as the predicted landslide distribution by using its estimated results agrees reasonably with the actual observations.

The geotechnical effects of long human habitation (2000< years): Earthquake induced landslide hazard in the city of Zefat, northern Israel

This work studies the effects of long human habitation on site geotechnical conditions. It is focused on the city of Zefat that is located on the borders of the Dead Sea Transform in northern Israel. The city of Zefat, suffered severe damage and loss of life in historical earthquakes, as a consequence of earthquake induced landslides (EILS). In this work we evaluate the current EILS hazard for the city of Zefat using a GIS-based regional Newmark analysis, with calibration of the calculated Newmark displacement (representing EILS hazard) using maps of field evidence and historical documents testifying to slope instability that occurred in historical earthquakes. We found that the core city of Zefat is built on a layered anthropogenic material, few meters deep which, was deposited as a result of more than 2000 years of human habitation. The anthropogenic material is mechanically weak, susceptible to slope failure and to amplification of seismic-shaking. It is responsible for the city's devastation in historical earthquakes and it is the source for the current high seismic hazard as well. Our model shows that earthquakes of magnitudes ( M w) 5, 6 and 7 at distances of up to 10 km, 50 km and more than 100 km, respectively, are likely to induce landslides in the core city of Zefat. The current engineering status of the city is poor, and as a consequence severe damage and loss of life are expected in future earthquakes due to EILS, unless major engineering efforts are made. Cities in the Eastern Mediterranean with comparable long habitation histories (e.g., Jerusalem, Tiberias, Nablus, Amman) are expected to have similar geotechnical problems in their old sections and are advised to take appropriate engineering steps to reduce damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. Evaluation of historical earthquake magnitudes based on reported local-damage may, however, lead to overestimated magnitudes where the damaged sites are built on anthropogenic talus (a common setting in the vicinity of the Dead Sea Transform).