Abstract
Abstract. Coseismic landslides can destroy buildings, dislocate roads, sever pipelines, and cause heavy casualties. It is thus important but challenging to accurately map the hazards posed by coseismic landslides. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface and model the coseismic response of slopes. This paper proposes an improved Newmark analysis for mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides by considering the roughness and effect of the size of the potential slide surfaces. This method is verified by data from a case study on the 2014 Mw 6.1 (the United States Geological Survey) Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province, China. Permanent displacements due to the earthquake ranged from 0 to 122 cm. The predicted displacements were compared with a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variation in the hazards of coseismic landslides using the certainty factor model. The confidence levels of coseismic landslides indicated by the certainty factors ranged from −1 to 0.95. A hazard map of the coseismic landslide was generated based on the spatial distribution of values of the certainty factor. A regression curve relating the predicted displacement and the certainty factor was drawn, and can be applied to predict the hazards of coseismic landslides for any seismic scenario of interest. The area under the curve was used to compare the improved and the conventional Newmark analyses, and revealed the improved performance of the former. This mapping procedure can be used to predict the hazards posed by coseismic landslides, and provide guidelines for decisions regarding the development of infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction.
Highlights
Earthquakes are recognized as one of the major causes of landslides (Keefer, 1984)
To better estimate the dynamic stability of slopes, in this paper, we introduce the Barton model (Barton, 1973) to Newmark analysis to develop an improved modeling method for mapping the hazards posed by coseismic landslides using data from the 2014 Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province in southwestern China
As predictions of coseismic landslides are not based on exact results, i.e., the computed permanent displacements, but are mingled with unformalized expertise, i.e., the interpreted landslides, we present a model of inexact reasoning, i.e., the certainty factor model (CFM), that defies analysis, as an application of sets of inference rules that are expressed in predicate logic (Shortliffe and Buchanan, 1975) to produce a map of the hazards posed by coseismic landslides
Summary
Earthquakes are recognized as one of the major causes of landslides (Keefer, 1984). The damage caused by seismically triggered landslides is sometimes more severe than the direct damage caused by the earthquake (Keefer, 1984). Newmark (1965) first introduced a relatively simple and practical method, which is still commonly used nowadays to estimate the coseismic permanent displacements of slopes (Jibson, 2011). Studies have shown that Newmark’s method yields reasonable and practical results when modeling the dynamic performance of natural slopes (Wilson and Keefer, 1983; Wieczorek et al, 1985; Jibson et al, 1998, 2000; Pradel et al, 2005). Studies have shown that Newmark’s method yields reasonable and practical results when modeling the dynamic performance of natural slopes (Wilson and Keefer, 1983; Wieczorek et al, 1985; Jibson et al, 1998, 2000; Pradel et al, 2005). Rathje and Antonakos (2011) recently
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