New Method For Estimation Research Articles

Construction work tasks duration: New method of estimation and quality control

The article considers the principles of ensuring the completion of construction projects to meet the date. The authors suggest the method of assessing the progress of the project and estimating timely completion of the project based on the application of the Schedule Timeless Index (STI) and the Schedule Progress Index (SPI). The method allows to analyze dynamically the deviation of the timing of the project for prompt adoption of effective management decisions.

A new method for estimation of the overall mass transfer coefficient in pertraction

The pertraction of benzoic acid was studied in an agitated bulk liquid membrane system. The simultaneous effect of the operational parameters such as initial feed phase concentration (cf0), bulk liquid membrane volume (VLM) as well as a molecular descriptor (MD) which represent the organic solvent is discussed. The response surface methodology with a full factorial design and multiple linear regression analysis was applied for the description of the dependence of benzoic acid fluxes on selected parameters and descriptors.It was experimentally confirmed that the response surface methodology enables the determination of the parameter which can be considered as the apparent overall mass transfer coefficient dependent on the volume of the liquid membrane and the liquid membrane solvent in the studied system.It was additionally found that the extended linear regression models with two and/or three factor interaction terms describe over 99.5% of the total variance between the maximum output fluxes of benzoic acid and selected variables. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of the empirical regression models, the standard validation procedures were carried out. For example, the highest prediction accuracy (over 99.5%) was achieved in the case of the models involving three variables (cf0 and VLM parameters and 3D Wiener index (W3D)), and additionally, two factor interaction terms (cf0×VLM, cf0×W3D,VLM×W3D).Alternatively, similar models with comparable prediction accuracy but exploiting the squared Moriguchi octanol–water partition coefficient (MLOGP2) or reciprocal hyper-detour index (Rww) can be formulated. However, in this case, the models involves three factors interaction term (cf0×VLM×MD).

Оптимізація процесу тонкого шліфування зносостійких композитних деталей обертання поліграфічних машин по числу операцій

In the article there were presented the theoretical and experimental research results of optimization by operations number of the technological process for fine abrasive grinding of high were-resistant composite friction parts for printing machines, which were manufactured from new type of composite materials and which were synthesized based on high alloyed stamp and tool steels wastes and aluminum alloys too. It was created the new method for estimation of the grinding productivity with taking into account the requirements of high quality of the part’s surfaces and economic factors of production. The analytical dependences which combine the requirements for abrasive tool, cutting parameters, roughness parameters of parts’ surfaces and the economical questions of production process, first of all, high productivity of the abrasive grinding, have been determined. It was developed the recommendations for industrial purpose.

The average energy difference method for calculation of line broadening of asymmetric tops

A new method for estimation of broadening coefficients of vibrational-rotational lines of asymmetric tops is presented. The method allows finding line widths on the basis of a few empiric data without complicated calculations. Based on the analysis of experimental data, the dependence of the average energy difference on vibrational quantum numbers is found. The approach has been tested by the example of calculation of line broadening of asymmetric tops H2O and HDO. Calculated parameters of line profiles were compared with experimental data in different absorption bands.

Applicability of Geostatistical Tools and Fractal Theory for the Estimation of the Effect of a River on Water Relations in Adjacent Area

The paper presents a new method of estimation of the effect of a river on the ground waters of the adjacent area, different than the one used so far and based on the application of geostatistical methods and the fractal theories. An analysis was performed of a 14-year series of daily observations of ordinates of water level in the river Oder and ordinates of ground water levels in five piezometers situated at various distances from the riverbed, within the range from 120 to 1000 m. The first stage of the analysis was devoted to evaluation of the applicability of classical statistical measures. It was found that only selected ones display a relation with the distance. Those included maximum value, ranges, coefficients of variation, and variances. The remaining ones proved to be non-applicable. The next stage was the analysis of correlations between the parameters of semivariograms of ground water levels in the piezometers and the parameters of semivariograms of water levels in river Oder. It was demonstrated that the values of each parameter were related with the distance of a given piezometer from the riverbed. This means that they are useful for the estimation of the effect of the river Oder on the adjacent areas, as are the fractal dimensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market

The liberalization of the Italian electricity market is a decade old. Within these last ten years, the supply side has been extensively analyzed, but not the demand side. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for estimation of the demand elasticity, based on Bayesian methods applied to the Italian electricity market. We used individual demand bids data in the day-ahead market in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX), for 2011, in order to construct an aggregate demand function at the hourly level. We took into account the existence of both elastic and inelastic bidders on the demand side. The empirical results show that elasticity varies significantly during the day and across periods of the year. In addition, the elasticity hourly distribution is clearly skewed and more so in the daily hours. The Bayesian method is a useful tool for policy-making, insofar as the regulator can start with a priori historical information on market behavior and estimate actual market outcomes in response to new policy actions.

Existence, uniqueness and consistency of estimation of life characteristics of three-parameter Weibull distribution based on Type-II right censored data

In this paper, we propose a new method of estimation for the parameters and quantiles of the three-parameter Weibull distribution based on Type-II right censored data. The method, based on a data transformation, overcomes the problem of unbounded likelihood. In the proposed method, under mild conditions, the estimates always exist uniquely, and the estimators are also consistent over the entire parameter space. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we further show that the proposed method of estimation performs well compared to some prominent methods in terms of bias and root mean squared error in small-sample situations. Finally, two real data sets are used to illustrate the proposed method of estimation.

Water and nonpoint source pollution estimation in the watershed with limited data availability based on hydrological simulation and regression model.

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is considered as the main reason for water quality deterioration; thus, to quantify the NPS loads reliably is the key to implement watershed management practices. In this study, water quality and NPS loads from a watershed with limited data availability were studied in a mountainous area in China. Instantaneous water discharge was measured through the velocity-area method, and samples were taken for water quality analysis in both flood and nonflood days in 2010. The streamflow simulated by Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) from 1995 to 2013 and a regression model were used to estimate total annual loads of various water quality parameters. The concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) were much higher during the flood seasons, but the concentrations of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) and nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) were lower during the flood seasons. Nevertheless, only TP concentration was positively correlated with the flow rate. The fluctuation of annual load from this watershed was significant. Statistical results indicated the significant contribution of pollutant fluxes during flood seasons to annual fluxes. The loads of TP, TN, NH3-N, and NO3-N in the flood seasons were accounted for 58-85, 60-82, 63-88, 64-81% of the total annual loads, respectively. This study presented a new method for estimation of the water and NPS loads in the watershed with limited data availability, which simplified data collection to watershed model and overcame the scale problem of field experiment method.

Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Gamma Distribution

Multivariate gamma distribution finds abundant applications in stochastic modelling, hydrology and reliability. Parameter estimation in this distribution is a challenging one as it involves many parameters to be estimated simultaneously. In this paper, the form of multivariate gamma distribution proposed by Mathai and Moschopoulos [10] is considered. This form has nice properties in terms of marginal and conditional densities. A new method of estimation based on optimal search is proposed for estimating the parameters using the marginal distributions and the concepts of maximum likelihood, spacings and least squares. The proposed methodology is easy to implement and is free from calculus. It optimizes the objective function by searching over a wide range of values and determines the estimate of the parameters. The consistency of the estimates is demonstrated in terms of mean, standard deviation and mean square error through simulation studies for different choices of parameters.

RRAWFLOW: Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (v1.15)

Abstract. The Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (RRAWFLOW) is a lumped-parameter model that simulates streamflow, spring flow, groundwater level, or solute transport for a measurement point in response to a system input of precipitation, recharge, or solute injection. I introduce the first version of RRAWFLOW available for download and public use and describe additional options. The open-source code is written in the R language and is available at http://sd.water.usgs.gov/projects/RRAWFLOW/RRAWFLOW.html along with an example model of streamflow. RRAWFLOW includes a time-series process to estimate recharge from precipitation and simulates the response to recharge by convolution, i.e., the unit-hydrograph approach. Gamma functions are used for estimation of parametric impulse-response functions (IRFs); a combination of two gamma functions results in a double-peaked IRF. A spline fit to a set of control points is introduced as a new method for estimation of nonparametric IRFs. Several options are included to simulate time-variant systems. For many applications, lumped models simulate the system response with equal accuracy to that of distributed models, but moreover, the ease of model construction and calibration of lumped models makes them a good choice for many applications (e.g., estimating missing periods in a hydrologic record). RRAWFLOW provides professional hydrologists and students with an accessible and versatile tool for lumped-parameter modeling.

New method for estimation of fluence complexity in IMRT fields and correlation with gamma analysis

A new method for estimation of fluence complexity in Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) fields is proposed. Unlike other previously published works, it is based on portal images calculated by the Portal Dose Calculation algorithm in Eclipse (version 8.6, Varian Medical Systems) in the plane of the EPID aS500 detector (Varian Medical Systems). Fluence complexity is given by the number and the amplitudes of dose gradients in these matrices. Our method is validated using a set of clinical plans where fluence has been smoothed manually so that each plan has a different level of complexity. Fluence complexity calculated with our tool is in accordance with the different levels of smoothing as well as results of gamma analysis, when calculated and measured dose matrices are compared. Thus, it is possible to estimate plan complexity before carrying out the measurement. If appropriate thresholds are determined which would distinguish between acceptably and overly modulated plans, this might save time in the re-planning and re-measuring process.

肝左葉内側区域萎縮に注目したC型肝炎におけるBモードでの新たな肝線維化評価法

目的：慢性肝疾患で最も初期に起こる形態変化として肝左葉内側区域（S4）の萎縮が報告されている．Bモード画像によりC型慢性肝炎患者のS4の萎縮を評価し，FibroScan®（以下，FS）による肝線維化指標との比較を行った．対象と方法：対象はC型慢性肝疾患で腹部超音波検査とFSを同日に施行した52例．S4形態は，門脈左枝横行部‐S4辺縁間距離（以下，S4距離）で評価した．肝線維化は，FSのStiffnessの中央値をgold standardとして判断した．S4距離とStiffness，各血液検査データ，脾腫との相関を検討した．結果：S4距離をFSにおける肝線維化staging毎に評価するとF0，F1，F2，F3，F4では平均4.0 mm，4.2 mm，7.6 mm，7.9 mm，9.5 mmと長くなり，F0とF2・F3・F4間，F1とF2・F3・F4間に有意差を認めた．Cut off値を5.6 mmとするとF2以上はsensitivity 91.3％，specificity 80.0％で区別できた．S4距離と各血液検査データとの間に相関を認めた．脾腫との間には相関は認めなかった．結語：S4距離での肝線維化評価は，簡易的かつ客観的肝線維化stagingの新しい評価法の1つとなり得ることが示唆された．特に，F1以下とF2以上を高率に検出できる点で臨床的に有用な手段と考える．

A NEW METHOD FOR NON DESTRUCTIVE ESTIMATION OF Jc IN YBaCuO CERAMIC SAMPLES

This work presents a new method for estimation of Jc as a bulk characteristic of YBCO blocks. The experimental magnetic interaction force between a SmCo permanent magnet and a YBCO block was compared to finite element method (FEM) simulations results, allowing us to search a best fitting value to the critical current of the superconducting sample. As FEM simulations were based on Bean model , the critical current density was taken as an unknown parameter. This is a non destructive estimation method. since there is no need of breaking even a little piece of the sample for analysis.

ASSESSMENT OF MARKET VOLATILITY DYNAMICS IN THE PERIODS OF SYSTEMIC INSTABILITIES

The new method of estimation of the values of the VaR using the modified GARCH model is presented, effectively assessing risks as in the quiet periods of financial market and at the same time the system instabilities.To check the efficiency of the estimation of the VaR used for statistics, calculated as on total time interval, and in the sliding window. Results of local and global use of these statistics are in good agreement with each other, with the statistics computed in sliding window provide information about the uniformity of the effectiveness of calculating VaR. In particular, the effectiveness of the assessment of VaR practically did not change during the periods of the significant rise in prices in comparison with the «quiet» periods.

A new method for the estimation of high temperature radiant heat emittance by means of aero-acoustic levitation

A new method for the experimental estimation of radiant heat emittance at high temperatures has been developed which involves aero-acoustic levitation of samples, laser heating and contactless temperature measurement. Radiant heat emittance values are determined from the time dependent development of the sample temperature which requires analysis of both the radiant and convective heat transfer towards the surroundings by means of fluid dynamics calculations. First results for the emittance of a corundum sample obtained with this method are presented in this article and found in good agreement with literature values.

Estimation of brain internal structures by deforming brain atlas using finite element method.

This paper presents a method for estimating the internal structures of a patient brain by deforming a standard brain atlas. Conventional deformation methods need several landmarks from the brain surface contour to fit the atlas to the patient brain shape. However, since the number and shapes of small sulci on the brain surface are different from each other, the determination of the accurate correspondence between small sulcus is difficult for experienced neurosurgeons. Moreover, the relationship between the surface shape and internal structure of the brain is unclear. Therefore, even if the deformed atlas is fitted to the patient brain shape exactly, the use of the deformed atlas does not always guarantee the reliable estimation of the internal structure of the patient brain. To solve these problems, we propose a new method for estimate the internal structure of a patient brain by the finite element method (FEM). In the deformation, our method select the landmarks from the contours of both the brain surface and the detectable internal structures from MR images.

Possibility of direct estimation of terahertz pulse electric field.

In this Letter, we introduce a new method of estimation of the terahertz (THz) field amplitude. This method uses second-harmonic generation (SHG) in the presence of THz and DC fields in gaseous media. We take into account contributions from both nonionized molecules and free plasma electrons to the nonlinear process of SHG. We analyze the applicability of this method of detection to obtaining correct information on the waveform and amplitude of broadband THz pulses.

The Measurement of High-Temperature Expansion as the Standard of Estimation the Knock-Out Properties of Moulding Sands with Hydrated Sodium Silicate

Abstract The necessity of receiving high quality castings forces undertaking research to elaborate moulding and core sands ensuring obtaining the materials with relevant technological parameters and also with high environmental standards. The most important group here are moulding sands with hydrated sodium silicate. Unfortunately, their fundamental disadvantages are weak knock-out properties. The article presents the most commonly used methods of measuring the knock-out properties of moulding and core sands. The authors propose a new method for estimation this parameter. The method is based on the measurement of high-temperature expansion.

Estimation of the inductive current transformer derating for operation with distorted currents

Abstract The aim of the paper is to present a new method for estimation of the CT (Current Transformer) rated primary current and / or load of the secondary winding derating levels for transformation of distorted current in relation to the rated values fixed for transformation of sinusoidal current. This ensures the values of the CT composite errors/transformer correction factors as resulting from its IEC 60044-1/IEEE C57.13 accuracy class in condition of distorted currents transformation.

Homography estimation from circular motion for use in visual control

This paper presents a new method for estimation of the homography up to similarity from observing a single point that is rotating at constant velocity around a single axis. The benefit of the proposed estimation approach is that it does not require measurement of the points in the world frame. The homography is estimated based on the known shape of the motion and in-image tracking of a single rotating point. The proposed method is compared to the two known methods: the direct approach based on point correspondences and a more recently proposed method based on conic properties. The main advantages of the proposed method are that it also estimates the angular velocity and that it requires only a single circle. The estimation is made directly from the measurements in the image. Because of the advantages of the proposed method over the other methods, the proposed method should be simple to implement for calibration of visually guided robotic systems.All the approaches were compared in the simulation environment in some non-ideal conditions and in the presence of disturbances, and a real experiment was made on a mobile robot. The experimental results confirm that the presented approach gives accurate results, even in some non-ideal conditions.