Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Research Articles

The Path to Net-Zero in Dairy Production: Are Pronounced Decreases in Enteric Methane Achievable?

Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production will require >50% reduction in enteric methane (CH4) emissions together with elimination of emissions from feed production, additional carbon sequestration, reduction in manure emissions, anaerobic digestion of manure, and decreased reliance on fossil fuel energy. Over past decades, improved production efficiency has reduced GHG intensity of milk production (i.e., emissions per unit of milk) in the United States, but this trend will continue only if cows are bred for increased efficiency. Genetic selection of low-CH4-producing animals, diet reformulation, use of feed additives, and vaccination show tremendous potential for enteric CH4 mitigation; however, few mitigation strategies are currently available, and added cost without increased revenue is a major barrier to implementation. Complete elimination of CH4 emissions from dairying is likely not possible without negatively affecting milk production; thus, offsets and removals of other GHGs will be needed to achieve net-zero milk production.

Preparing for net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050: lifecycle emissions of dairy products in Brazil

Dairy products play an important role in human nutrition and the world economy. Livestock farming, including cows rearing to produce milk and dairy products, is one of the world's major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Progress towards net zero goals requires monitoring emissions from companies and products, and greenhouse gas inventories are essential. This work quantifies greenhouse gas emissions from milk production, considering the milk delivered at the farm gate and the milk delivered at the cooperative gate. Emissions accounting was based on greenhouse gas inventories for two units and lifecycle emissions for major farm inputs. Results have shown that milk production on the farm emits 0.57 kg CO2e / liter, with enteric fermentation accounting for more than 90% of emissions at the farm gate, and more than 50% at the milk processing unit gate. Dairy production adds 0.533 kg CO2e / liter to the emissions coming from raw milk, most of which comes from wastewater treatment. Thus, the footprint of dairy products is 1.103 kg CO2e / liter of processed milk. The producers' cooperative's greenhouse gas emissions are essentially indirect and amount to 0.626 kg CO2e/liter of milk delivered to customers, in which emissions from purchased milk account for more than 85% and emissions from transportation account for around 15%.

Briefing: Stocktaking global warming: the outcomes of the 2023 Dubai Climate Summit (COP28)

This article reviews outcomes of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28) held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in late 2023. In particular, it considered the first Global Stocktake (GST) of actions taken by signatory nations to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The GST examined the potential impact of bottom-up national pledges on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation required to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the twenty-first century. The achievements at COP28 were mixed, and disappointed many from the climate-vulnerable states at high risk from extreme weather events and rising sea levels. There is a significant GHG emissions gap between that needed to ‘keep 1.5°C alive’ and climate actions identified in the GST. Nonetheless, the parties agreed to ‘transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems’ in order to reach net zero GHG emissions (i.e. carbon neutrality) by 2050, and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. This assessment sets out the background to what needs to be achieved at future annual COP summits, including the next GST at COP30 to be held in the Brazilian city of Belém later in 2025.

Modeling the co-adoption dynamics of PV and heat pumps in Swiss residential buildings: Implications for policy and sustainability goals

The Swiss energy system is facing a paradigm shift as it strives to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, as well as phase out nuclear electricity production. This entails significant changes in the country’s energy landscape, including increased adoption of renewable energy technologies in the residential sector. To facilitate informed decision-making and planning by policymakers, this study introduces a system-dynamics model for the long-term adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) and heat pump (HP) technologies in Swiss residential buildings. Unlike conventional approaches, this framework considers the feedback loops and correlations between PV and HP adoption, while also accounting for building heterogeneity. Through scenario analyses, the model evaluates the impact of regulatory and financial policy interventions on the transition of the residential energy system. The results highlight the significant influence of policy measures on technology deployment rates, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions. They demonstrate that slight adjustments in current policy and regulatory framework could allow to safely reach PV deployment targets, but strong modifications are necessary to completely decarbonize the residential sector. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of the complex dynamics shaping residential energy transitions and offers valuable insights to support the formulation and implementation of effective energy strategies.

The Ones and Zeros of Carbon Capture

Leading services companies and specialty software firms alike have launched various tools and digital suites to assist carbon capture and storage (CCS) project operators with everything from ideal siting of facilities and pipelines to the efficient operations and around-the-clock monitoring of those facilities. CCS holds the promise of big business if industry can efficiently and economically operate at scale the slate of planned facilities. Oil and gas companies have been making investments in the space with aims to become leaders in a segment—ironic since the petroleum business is also one of the emitters of CO2 into the atmosphere. Last month, supermajor ExxonMobil executed the largest offshore CO2 storage lease in the US with the Texas General Land Office. The 271,000-plus-acre site complements the onshore CO2 storage portfolio ExxonMobil is developing and further solidifies the US Gulf Coast as a CCS leader, according to the operator. In an October 2024 report, the US Department of Energy (DOE) issued a draft strategy for carbon management technologies through 2030, stating that carbon capture and direct air capture are “essential” to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The report says CCS projects will grow dramatically over the next decade and beyond, adding that 18 CCS facilities are operating now in the US. DOE’s near-term CCS strategy through 2030 incorporates focusing research, development, demonstration, and deployment funding on priority use cases; building out CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure where it likely will be needed most in the future; supporting the implementation of effective and evidence-driven policies and regulations related to carbon management at other federal agencies; engaging communities and workers to ensure projects deliver benefits and mitigate potential risks to public health and the environment; and supporting climate diplomacy efforts to accelerate the adoption of carbon management at scale globally in a way that aligns with the Paris Agreement. “DOE is funding a variety of technologies to assist in decarbonization in the industrial and power sectors,” the report explained. “These approaches include carbon management as well as electrification, fuel switching, materials substitution, efficiency, and other emissions-reductions measures. In parallel, DOE is working to envision and develop transformative emissions reductions approaches that will create new options in the long term.” The US government has been an active participant in making funding available for the advancement of CCS technologies. In 2024 alone, almost $3.5 billion was made available between two separate programs—CCS large-scale pilot projects ($937 million) and CCS demonstration projects ($2.5 billion)—as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. In June 2023, ceremonial shovels were plunged into the dirt in Ector County, Texas, to mark the start of construction for the largest direct air capture facility in the world, designed to capture 500,000 metric tons of CO2 from the atmosphere every year. Occidental subsidiary OnePointFive’s $1-billion Stratos project is located on a 65-acre site made up of a network of air contactors, pellet reactors, a centrifuge, and a calciner—all known components that operate in other industries.

Integrated Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health Protection Strategies: The Case of the City of Bologna, Italy

Introduction: The ongoing process of global warming, driven by the escalating concentration of greenhouse gases generated by human activities, especially in urban areas, significantly impacts public health. Local authorities play an important role in health promotion and disease prevention, and some aim to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. There is a consistent action underway to reach this goal, hence the need for mapping and implementing effective strategies and regulations. Materials and Methods: This study includes the analysis of policy guidelines adopted by the city of Bologna, consulted in March and April 2024. Bologna is one of the 100 cities committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2030, 20 years ahead of the EU target. To identify the strategies adopted to mitigate climate change, the following methodology was used: (i) the systematic mapping of sources and spatial planning documents; (ii) the extrapolation of goals, measures, and target indicators; and (iii) the development of an overall matrix. Results: The main findings of the study and their connection to public health pertain to the identification of key macro-areas contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, while reducing the impact of climate change on health: (1) built environment and renewable energy sources, (2) transport and mobility, (3) energy, (4) green areas and land use, and (5) citizen support. Within these five macro-areas, 14 goals have been identified, to which a total of 36 measures correspond, and, finally, a target indicator is determined, mainly with respect to the reduction of tons of CO2 equivalent per year. Conclusions: In order to protect public health, it is evident that buildings and urban activities should not produce carbon emissions throughout their lifecycle. This paper presents a method to evaluate municipal policies regarding dual-impact solutions that address both environmental protection through sustainability strategies and public health, in compliance with the Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach.

On the chemistry of the global warming potential of hydrogen

Hydrogen (H2) is considered a promising fuel to contribute to net-zero carbon emission goals. While hydrogen itself is not a greenhouse gas, leakage of hydrogen fuels causes indirect warming due to hydrogen’s influence on methane, tropospheric ozone, and stratospheric water vapor, with the methane term dominating the impact. Some studies consider a simple four-equation box model to explore the climate consequences of leakage from hydrogen fuel use relative to methane, while others have employed much more detailed global photochemical models. Here we use a comprehensive photochemical box model including 66 reactions to show and quantify how the analogous four-equation system is missing a critical OH feedback, leading it to overestimate the time-integrated methane response to a pulse of hydrogen by over 100%. We estimate a hydrogen global warming potential (GWP) relative to carbon dioxide of 28−11+18 on the 20-year time horizon and 10−4+7 on the 100-year time horizon based on the 66-reaction model and information from the literature. GWPs provide a measure of the relative global warming impact of emission of one gas compared to a selected reference gas per unit mass emitted. While CO2 is generally chosen for the reference, any gas can be used. We present the GWP of H2 using CH4 as the reference, as this choice cancels out some uncertainties that are common to both H2 and CH4. The GWP for H2 relative to CH4 from fossil fuel sources is 0.35−0.06+0.13 on time horizons beyond 15 years; put differently, we find that relative to an equivalent mass of emission of fossil CH4, hydrogen emission has a climate impact about three times smaller. These global warming potentials underscore that hydrogen leakage does contribute to climate change, emphasizing the importance of limiting both hydrogen and methane leakage if global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved by 2050.

Achieving net zero-emission production through hydrogen: Evidence from Scottish whisky industry

ABSTRACT Climate change poses a significant threat to economic development and necessitates immediate action to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This study investigates the feasibility of hydrogen systems as a comprehensive solution for decarbonizing the distillery industry, a sector often deemed “hard-to-treat” from service perspective. Through a qualitative case study of a whiskey distillery in Scotland, insights from senior management at both the distillery and the hydrogen system provider reveal the potential of hydrogen to not only serve as an energy source but also to address broader sustainability challenges within the food and agriculture sector. While advantages are evident, the study also identifies challenges related to infrastructure, cost, and the need for shifts in government policy, user attitudes, and investor perspectives. This research serves as a precursor to broader sectoral studies aimed at developing pathways toward net-zero emissions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among stakeholders to unlock the full potential of hydrogen as a transformative solution for achieving a sustainable future.

Emissions from building and construction can be halved with current technologies and practices

Emissions from building and construction can be halved with current technologies and practices Filip Johnsson and Ida Karlsson from Chalmers University of Technology argue that building and construction emissions can be halved with current technologies and practices in place. The Mistra Carbon Exit programme identifies and analyses the technical, economic and political opportunities and challenges for Sweden to reach the target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. The programme is multidisciplinary, addressing the technical, economic and political challenges associated with this transition. The programme takes the novel approach of focusing on supply chains – from the input of raw materials, through primary and secondary activities, to the final products and services demanded by the end-users.

Impact of net zero policy scenarios on air pollution inequalities in England and Wales

BackgroundThe UK is committed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The suite of policies needed to reach net zero will lead to improvements in air quality and, consequently, could lessen air pollution inequalities. We assessed air pollution inequalities across different sociodemographic groups in England and Wales and explored how these might be differentially impacted by future air pollution projections in 2030 and 2040 under net zero policies. MethodsWe employed a geodemographic classification approach to categorise neighbourhoods into five distinct clusters based on 2021 UK Census sociodemographic variables. We modelled fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations for the year 2019, and predicted concentrations in 2030 and 2040. We compared a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and two policy pathways to achieve net zero currently considered by the UK government. We aggregated air pollution concentrations to the neighbourhood level and assessed differential neighbourhood-level concentrations across the geodemographic groups using descriptive statistics and box plots. ResultsThe Urban Central Professionals group experienced 14 µg/m3 higher average NO2 concentrations compared with the Rural Elderly group in 2019. Despite substantial improvements to air quality in 2030 and 2040 of up to 6.3 µg/m3 for NO2 based on BAU, and further reductions of up to 2.4 µg/m3 NO2 under net zero policies, the overall pattern of inequality persists, but is predicted to be less pronounced. ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate the effectiveness of targeted policies and innovations in reducing both air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and in bridging the environmental inequality gap. Our findings are essential to develop targeted communication campaigns to secure acceptance and willingness across the sociodemographic spectrum to support the significant behavioural changes needed to achieve net zero, by highlighting the wider co-benefits to the environment and health of such policies.

Net zero initiative in U.S. beef and dairy systems: integrative on-farm recommendations for greenhouse gas reduction

Abstract Beef and dairy production systems play an important role in society, providing a variety of ecosystem services. U.S. beef and dairy production systems require being aligned with the global and national effort to stabilize the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. This study adapted the nominal group technique framework to design a roadmap to achieving a net-zero GHG cattle supply chain in the U.S. with an emphasis on farm recommendations. Scientists with diverse expertise in sustainable beef and dairy production proposed, categorized, described, defined, and prioritized strategies that have the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions, improve production system efficiencies, and promote sustainability. These strategies were presented to different stakeholders and classified according to the marginal GHG reduction, expected return on investment, and market readiness. Thus, strategies were defined for cow-calf and stocker, feedlot, and dairy operations, according to the characteristics of the cattle systems in the U.S. This net-zero roadmap presents a broad range of options for promoting sustainable cattle production in the U.S. Priority items for a research agenda to facilitate progress towards implementing this net-zero roadmap are described according to the dairy or beef production system and including the modulation of rumen fermentation, precision diet management, manure management, increasing animal and system efficiency, and genetic evaluation and selecting of efficient animals. The expected return on investment and market readiness of the proposed strategies depend on the technology type and system localization. Progress toward the net-zero goal depends on the widespread adoption of appropriate mitigation strategies. Future research programs must prioritize identified research needs to promote the wide adoption of the proposed strategies.

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO2eq/yr requires CO2 prices above 100 €/tCO2 in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO2 price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO2 by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

New perspectives on temperate inland wetlands as natural climate solutions under different CO2-equivalent metrics

There is debate about the use of wetlands as natural climate solutions due to their ability to act as a “double-edged sword” with respect to climate impacts by both sequestering CO2 while emitting CH4. Here, we used a process-based greenhouse gas (GHG) perturbation model to simulate wetland radiative forcing and temperature change associated with wetland state conversion over 500 years based on empirical carbon flux measurements, and CO2-equivalent (CO2-e.q.) metrics to assess the net flux of GHGs from wetlands on a comparable basis. Three CO2-e.q. metrics were used to describe the relative radiative impact of CO2 and CH4—the conventional global warming potential (GWP) that looks at pulse GHG emissions over a fixed timeframe, the sustained-flux GWP (SGWP) that looks at sustained GHG emissions over a fixed timeframe, and GWP* that explicitly accounts for changes in the radiative forcing of CH4 over time (initially more potent but then diminishing after about a decade)—against model-derived mean temperature profiles. GWP* most closely estimated the mean temperature profiles associated with net wetland GHG emissions. Using the GWP*, intact wetlands serve as net CO2-e.q. carbon sinks and deliver net cooling effects on the climate. Prioritizing the conservation of intact wetlands is a cost-effective approach with immediate climate benefits that align with the Paris Agreement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change timeline of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Restoration of wetlands also has immediate climate benefits (reduced warming), but with the majority of climate benefits (cooling) occurring over longer timescales, making it an effective short and long-term natural climate solution with additional co-benefits.

The impact of national policies on Europe-wide power system transition towards net-zero 2050

This research aims to investigate the potential impact of national policies on the attainment of Europe's goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, it analyses the effects of policies on the power sector, by evaluating capacity expansion portfolios, import reliance, and costs by 2050. A linear programming model, the IESA-EUPS, is utilized to optimize the expansion and operation of the power system, considering 28 nodes and hourly temporal resolution. The study includes five scenarios from 2020 to 2050, with varying levels of biomass and nuclear penetration based on existing member state policies. Results show that by 2050, changes mainly occur in the interplay between firm capacities and cross-border transmission levels. Limiting biomass can significantly increase nuclear energy generation, while enforcing all policies leads to a 40 % rise in cross-border transmission by 2050, due to imbalances between countries. Some member states, such as Spain and Finland, are less affected, whereas others are heavily reliant on firm nuclear capacities. Western European countries with strict biomass and nuclear restrictions may see a boost in nuclear installations in countries allowing it. Member states without both nuclear and biomass may rely more on variable renewables, resulting in surplus electricity and increased LCOE.

Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emission Electrified Aircraft Propulsion for Large Commercial Transport

Until recently, electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) technology development has been driven by the dual objectives of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and addressing the depletion of fossil fuels. However, the increasing severity of climate change, posing a significant threat to all life forms, has resulted in the global consensus of achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. This major shift has alerted the aviation electrification industry to consider the following: What is the clear path forward for EAP technology development to support the net-zero GHG goals for large commercial transport aviation? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question. After identifying four types of GHG emissions that should be used as metrics to measure the effectiveness of each technology for GHG reduction, the paper presents three significant categories of GHG reduction efforts regarding the engine, evaluates the potential of EAP technologies within each category as well as combinations of technologies among the different categories using the identified metrics, and thus determines the path forward to support the net-zero GHG objective. Specifically, the paper underscores the need for the aviation electrification industry to adapt, adjust, and integrate its EAP technology development into the emerging new engine classes. These innovations and collaborations are crucial to accelerate net-zero GHG efforts effectively.

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to addressing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our analysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring concerted efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the industrial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

The role of electrification and the power sector in U.S. carbon neutrality

The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO2 scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO2 scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48 % for transportation, 65-83 % for buildings, and 20-38 % for industry. If net-zero CO2 is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53 %, 78-84 %, and 41-53 % electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.

Linking forest carbon opportunity costs and greenhouse gas emission substitution effects of wooden buildings: The climate optimum concept

Forests play a crucial role in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets in the coming decades, as they can act as natural carbon sinks by removing carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere. The use of wood as a building material leads to lower GHG emissions throughout its life cycle compared to other building materials and is therefore considered a valid climate change mitigation strategy. However, the impact of wood harvesting on the potential carbon storage in forests has largely been ignored. In this study, we investigated whether the use of wood as a building material is beneficial for climate change mitigation when considering carbon opportunity costs, which represent the amount of carbon prevented from accumulating in forests due to wood extraction. We introduce the climate optimum concept, which links both GHG emission substitution and associated carbon opportunity cost of wooden buildings. Application of the concept to a case study building shows that the GHG substitution benefits of wooden buildings for climate change mitigation are overshadowed by carbon opportunity costs in forests. In our analysis, no wooden scenario achieves sufficient life cycle embodied GHG emission substitution in order to compensate for the unrealized carbon storage potential in the forest system due to harvest. Wood-based GHG mitigation strategies in the building sector and beyond need to consider this unrealized carbon storage potential of forests expressed via carbon opportunity costs, in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the climate impact of forests and wood-based products.

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

Ship sailing speed optimization considering dynamic meteorological conditions

Sailing speed optimization is a cost-effective strategy to improve ship energy efficiency and a viable way to fulfill emission reduction requirements. This study develops a novel ship sailing speed optimization method that considers dynamic meteorological conditions. We first develop an artificial neural network model for vessel fuel consumption rate (FCR) prediction based on a fusion dataset of ship noon reports and public meteorological data. Then, based on the predicted FCRs, the method repeatedly formulates a multistage graph based on the most recent forecasts, and optimal speeds for the remaining voyage are obtained until the vessel reaches the destination port. The computational efficiency of the optimization process is enhanced by progressively removing nodes without connections to successor nodes, starting from the penultimate stage. We examine the proposed method on two 11-day voyages of a dry bulk carrier. Results show that the proposed method demonstrates significant reductions in fuel consumption by 5.35% compared with a constant sailing speed scheme and by 7.34% compared with a static speed optimization model. In addition, the proposed model achieves similar fuel savings to those achieved by speed optimization based on actual meteorological conditions, enabling shipping companies to optimize ship sailing speeds in the absence of actual meteorological conditions. The proposed method can be applied to various types of vessels due to its flexibility and adaptability, making it a valuable tool for the shipping industry to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, thereby supporting the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s goal of reaching net-zero GHG emissions by around 2050.