Towards net zero: Evaluating energy security in Singapore using system dynamics modelling

Abstract

Faced with international climate obligations and domestic pressure, Singapore has recently raised its climate goals significantly. The government had affirmed its intention for carbon emissions to peak before 2030 and for Singapore to attain net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, as Singapore transitions to green energy, there remains much uncertainty if this transformation, coupled with rapidly evolving geopolitics, would present vulnerabilities to energy security. Hence, this paper is an attempt to investigate Singapore's possible paths to achieve these goals while enhancing energy security in view of present and future energy plans. Key parameters of energy security in Singapore's context are identified to determine how different policy decisions would influence them. The effects of various current and potential policies can thus be evaluated using a systems thinking and system dynamics approach to propose new energy solutions to improve energy security. System dynamics modelling reveals that new energy supply solutions would have to be considered in Singapore's Energy 2050 Plan while furthering efforts in reducing energy demand. Findings reveal that Singapore should have a target of >80% renewable energy by 2050, pursue a central strategy towards sustainable diversification of its energy sources into hydrogen, electricity imports and solar energy and reduce energy consumption. Accordingly, Singapore's energy security can then be improved in terms of the economic, energy supply chain and environmental dimensions, and towards attaining net-zero emissions.