Accounting and decomposition of China's CO2 emissions 1981–2021

Abstract

The Five-Year Plan (FYP) effectively guides China's short- to medium-term development goals, but limited data hinder research on long-term CO2 performance within the FYP framework. This study compiles sectoral CO2 emissions from detailed fuels in 1981–2021, employing the input–output model and structural decomposition technique to examine their performance and driving forces. Our results show that the growth rates of national emissions increased continuously from the 6th to the 11th FYP (1981–2011), gradually declined thereafter (2011−2020), but rose significantly in 2021. Urban household emissions per capita fell by 40%, while rural household emissions rose by 209%. The mix effect (or substitution effect) drove households to increase their use of oil and natural gas, reducing reliance on coal. Coal was the primary emissions source in industrial sectors, specifically in manufacturing and utilities. Elevated coal- and oil-related emissions were primarily due to the level effect, whereas the mix effect drove natural gas-related emissions. Manufacturing and construction were major sources of embodied emissions. Emissions intensity had modest mitigation effects, and the input structure effect was relatively low. Our results underscore the need for China to expedite the substitution of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy sources to achieve its low-carbon goals outlined in the 14th FYP.