Growing monolayers of rod-shaped bacteria exhibit local alignment similarly to extensile active nematics. When confined in a channel or growing inward from a ring, the local nematic order of these monolayers changes to a global ordering with cells throughout the monolayer orienting in the same direction. The mechanism behind this phenomenon is so far unclear, as previously proposed mechanisms fail to predict the correct alignment direction in one or more confinement geometries. We present a strain-based model relating net deformation of the growing monolayer to the cell-level deformation resulting from single-cell growth and rotation, producing predictions of cell orientation behavior based on the velocity field in the monolayer. This model correctly predicts the direction of preferential alignment in channel-confined, inward growing, and unconfined colonies. The model also quantitatively predicts orientational order when the velocity field has no net negative strain rate in any direction. We further test our model in simulations of expanding colonies confined to spherical surfaces. Our model and simulations agree that cells away from the origin cell orient radially relative to the colony's center. Additionally, our model's quantitative prediction of the orientational order agrees with the simulation results in the top half of the sphere but fails in the lower half where there is a net negative strain rate. The success of our model bridges the gap between previous works on cell alignment in disparate confinement geometries and provides insight into the underlying physical effects responsible for large-scale alignment.