Net Importing Countries Research Articles

How climate change and international trade will shape the future global soybean security pattern

Soybean planting is highly concentrated and sensitive to climate change, which makes global soybean security vulnerable to production fluctuations in the main producing countries. As an important trade commodity, the impacts of climate change on soybean production in the main producing countries can ripple globally through international trade. However, little is known about the spatial distribution of soybean security under future climate at the global scale. This study couples an ensemble of multi-crop models and a global economic model (GTAP, Global Trade Analysis Project) to evaluate variations in soybean yield of the top ten soybean-producing countries in the 2050s (2046–2055) and the consequent impacts on global soybean supply and price under a range of future climate scenarios. Our results show that (1) The top ten soybean-producing countries, accounting for nearly 97% of global soybean production, suffer an average soybean yield reduction of 0.82% (specific to each country: −5.81%∼7.05%), 0.43% (−23.5%∼11.72%) and 5.22% (−17.88%∼18.73%) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, when considering the fertilization effect of CO2. A substantial soybean yield loss of 19.51% (−28.86%∼2.97%) is projected under RCP8.5 without accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect. (2) Climate-induced yield reduction leads to insufficient soybean supply and higher price worldwide through the transmission of international trade, with the largest supply decline of 14.20% in Bolivia and the largest price increase of 91.19% in India. Regionally, soybean net-importing countries are more vulnerable because of the ripple effect of the soybean supply chain. For example, despite a simulated increase in soybean yield of 2.97%–18.73%, China's soybean supply will decline by 0.61%–2.27% due to import shortages from the United States and Brazil where severe soybean yield losses are witnessed. (3) Liberal trade does dampen the negative impact of climate change on global soybean supply and price by reducing trade costs and facilitating trade flows, but in soybean export-oriented regions, trade liberalization can result in increased exports at the expense of domestic soybean supply (e.g., Canada and Russia). Our findings highlight the necessity of developing a liberal trade policy that benefits all regions of the world and improving domestic soybean productivity to adapt to climate change.

Driving factors of changes in energy intensity: A comparison between energy exporting and importing countries

This paper compares the driving factors of changes in energy intensity in both net energy exporting and importing countries using a DEA-Malmquist (Data Envelopment Analysis) and panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) methods over the period of 2000–2021. The findings show that technological progress has played a significant role in reducing of energy intensity in both groups. Moreover, we use the DEA method to decompose the Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) into its components including technical change (TC), efficiency change (EC), pure efficiency change (PEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC). The results show that in energy exporting countries, the effects of each of these TFP components on energy intensity are negative but relatively weak, while the effects of these components on reducing energy intensity in importing countries is considerable. Specifically, the estimated coefficient of the pure efficiency component in reducing energy intensity in very remarkable, which shows the high importance of the efficiency components of TFP in energy management. Next, we investigate what is the main driver of technological progress in both the energy exporting and importing countries. The findings imply that in net energy exporting countries trade openness is a dominant factor to improve productivity, while in net energy importing countries, internal R&D is the dominant factor for improving technological efficiency.

The stability optimization of the international lithium trade

The international mineral resources trade is an important way to correct the unbalanced distribution of global mineral resources. This paper proposes a bi-objective model to improve the stability of the mineral resource trade by optimizing the trade structure. The improved nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was used to solve the bi-objective optimization model, and a more robust trade structure was obtained. We applied the model to the optimization of the global lithium carbonate trade. The optimized results enabled us to identify the key trade relationships that play the most critical role in improving the stability of lithium carbonate trade. The effectiveness of the optimization model was proved by analyzing the stability of major net importing countries and the influence of major net exporting countries. Furthermore, the strongest destructive model, which was opposite to the optimal model, was used to analyze the core trade relations and core countries in the actual lithium trade. These core trade relations provide a foundation for maintaining the stability of the international trade. Our work provides new ideas for improving the stability of the global mineral trade and provides a new perspective and special basis for trading countries to choose trade partners.

A New Zealand Perspective on Hydrogen as an Export Commodity: Timing of Market Development and an Energy Assessment of Hydrogen Carriers

Hydrogen is currently receiving significant attention and investment as a key enabler of defossilised global energy systems. Many believe this will eventually result in the international trade of hydrogen as a commodity from countries with significant renewable energy resources, for example New Zealand and Australia, to net energy importing countries including Japan and Korea. Japan has, since 2014, been actively exploring the components of the necessary supply chains, including the assessment of different hydrogen carriers. Public/private partnerships have invested in demonstration projects to assess the comparative merits of liquid hydrogen, ammonia, and organic carriers. On the supply side, significant projects have been proposed in Australia while the impending closure of New Zealand’s Tiwai Point aluminium smelter at the end of 2024 may provide an opportunity for green hydrogen production. However, it is also evident that the transition to a hydrogen economy will take some years and confidence around the timing of supply and demand capacity is essential for new energy infrastructure investment. This paper reviews the expected development of an export market to Japan and concludes that large scale imports are unlikely before the late 2020s. Comparative evaluation of the energy efficiency of various hydrogen carriers concludes that it is too early to call a winner, but that ammonia has key advantages as a fungible commodity today, while liquid hydrogen has the potential to be a more efficient energy carrier. Ultimately it will be the delivered cost of hydrogen that will determine which carriers are used, and while energy efficiency is a key metric, there are other considerations such as infrastructure availability, and capital and operating costs.

GATT/WTO membership–poverty nexus: An unconditional quantile regression approach

AbstractThis paper uses unconditional quantile regression methods to evaluate the incidence of GATT/WTO membership on poverty in countries with different poverty rates. My results suggest that GATT/WTO membership increases significantly poverty across the entire unconditional distribution of poverty. Countries with the highest poverty rates incur larger poverty increases after joining GATT/WTO than countries with lower poverty rates. However, the results point out heterogeneity among countries depending on the reforms carried upon GATT/WTO membership. The results indicate that countries that conducted extensive policy reforms and were not subject to Article XXVI 5(c) are associated with poverty reduction. Also, by splitting the sample into groups of countries that have and do not have a comparative advantage in agriculture, I find that countries with lower poverty rates that are net exporters of agricultural products experience poverty reduction, whereas poverty increases in net importing countries across poverty quantiles. These results are robust across different unconditional quantile regression methods and to the selection bias.

Stochastic convergence of disaggregated energy consumption per capita and its catch-up rate: An independent analysis of MENA net oil-exporting and importing countries

Investigating the stochastic convergence of energy consumption per capita and its catch-up rate is important for policies in energy demand and supply as well as environmental management, hence, the coming up of this paper with reference to the MENA oil-exporting and importing nations for the period of 1990–2016 using advances in unit root tests including the panel KPSS test with breaks; two-step LM test with breaks and Residual Augmented Least Squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) test with breaks. The findings from the panel test revealed stochastic convergence in total, nonrenewable, and renewable energy consumption for all the panels in both groups except the catch-up rate panel of total energy consumption of the net oil-importing nations while the univariate tests in the MENA net oil-exporting nations uncovered stochastic convergence in total (54% of the sample), nonrenewable (54% of the sample), and renewable (70% of the sample) whereas, in the MENA net oil-importing nations, total (64% of the sample), non-renewable (55% of the sample), and renewable (73% of the sample). However, in the catch-up rate of the MENA net oil-importing nations, total (45% of the sample), nonrenewable (73% of the sample), and renewable (73% of the sample). Policy implications were made.

ASYMMETRIC RESPONSE OF DISAGGREGATED IMPORT DEMAND TO EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS: A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE

Net importing countries are very susceptible to changes in the value of their currency. Pakistan, being a small open economy, faces a constant pressure in its current account and BOP, which leads to unavoidable stress on its exchange rate. Exchange rate movements affect the cost of imports directly which have been studied extensively in empirical literature. However, these studies ignore the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate and its impact on import demand in Pakistan. An appreciation in exchange rate may have a different impact on demand for imports than depreciations depending upon the level of rigidity in consumer preferences as well as the availability of substitutes for consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We use quarterly data of Pakistan’s consumer goods, capital goods and raw material imports from 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q4 and employ a relatively recent econometric methodology, namely, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) technique. The results confirm the existence of asymmetric impact of exchange rate in the long-run. The appreciation of currency has more pronounced impact in increasing imports relative to the depreciation of it in decreasing imports. There are further differences of this effect within imports across consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We present policy implications of this asymmetric effect of exchange rate on disaggregated consumer imports.

The path to renewable energy consumption in the European Union through drivers and barriers: A panel vector autoregressive approach

Renewable energy consumption brings sustainable economic growth and pollution reduction. Despite the worldwide increase in renewable energy consumption, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are rising and there are still considerable differences in the share of renewable energy consumption in national energy portfolios. These concerns require further effort at the policy level, especially by countries that make extensive use of energy imports. These countries could improve their lack of energy independence by using renewable energy sources and leveraging a few factors to facilitate their transition. This study aims to investigate renewable energy consumption drivers, focusing on the role of socio-technical (rather than economic) aspects such as policy stringency, lobbying, public awareness, and education. We employ a panel vector autoregressive model in first differences to test the complex dynamic relationships among renewable energy consumption, policy stringency, lobbying, public awareness, and education, controlling for variables such as per capita income and import levels, for 12 European Union net energy importing countries. Results show that the positive income effect prevails in the influence of the level of carbon dioxide emissions (negative) on renewable energy consumption, despite the latter being more significant in countries with higher levels of education. Increasing energy needs push traditional sources towards complementarity with renewable energy consumption, implying a positive lobbying effect. Public awareness is not enough to facilitate the transition to renewable energy consumption. By contrast, policy stringency has positive direct and indirect effects on renewable energy consumption, suggesting that the approach adopted by the European Commission in the recent Green Deal is a step in the right direction. Moreover, as shown, policymakers are able, through renewable energy consumption, to generate a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions and electricity production from oil, gas, coal, and nuclear sources in the first instance, but also in net energy imports, even if at a later stage.

How Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emissions Affect the Disparity of Public Health in Countries with High Fossil Energy Consumption.

Public health issues are a global focus, but recent research on the links between fossil energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and public health in different regions have presented inconsistent conclusions. In order to quantify the effect of fossil energy use and pollutant emissions on public health from the global perspective, this paper investigates 33 countries with high GDP and fossil energy consumption from 1995 to 2015 using a fixed effect model. Further, this paper utilizes heterogeneity analysis to characterize the disparity of countries with different features. Empirical results indicate that total fossil energy consumption is beneficial to the life expectancy of the population (LEP), but pollutant emissions (PM10 concentration and greenhouse gas scale) have a negative effect on LEP. Moreover, the heterogeneity test indicates that pollutant emissions lowers LEP in net energy importers more than in net energy exporters, and the effect of such emissions in low- and middle-income countries on public health is more harmful than that in high-income countries. These findings suggest that it is a greater priority for governments to strengthen the control of pollutant emissions through enhancing the efficiency of energy consumption, rather than by reducing its scale of use in low- and middle-income, and net energy importing countries. Additionally, governments also need to focus on the volatility of pollutant emissions in high-income countries with necessary control measures.

Oil and Africa’s macroeconomy: are structural breaks important?

AbstractThis study examines the changing impact of oil price shocks on Nigeria and South Africa. Using a structural break approach, recent studies have established the altered impact of oil price shocks consequent to the Great Moderation that commenced in the mid‐1980s. While several studies have focused on the oil–macroeconomic relationship in Africa, little attention has been paid to the variation across different periods. This study investigated the possible changing impact of oil on inflation and the real gross domestic product growth rate in the two largest African economies that are, respectively, net oil‐exporting and net importing countries. A data set from 1970 quarter 1 to 2016 quarter 4 was employed. An impulse response function was used as a referenced model while rolling impulse approach was adopted to ascertain variation across periods. Our findings show the magnitude of the impacts of oil price shocks has declined significantly since the 1990s. Several factors were adduced for the muted effects of oil in the two economies. These factors were largely driven by domestic policies and institutional reforms. Hence, not taking account of the time‐varying nature of the relationship may not provide a complete picture of the relationships between oil and macroeconomic outcomes among African countries.

Determinants of net carbon emissions embodied in Sino-German trade

Abstract The existing research on carbon emissions embodied in trade has been concentrated between net importing countries and net exporting countries. Few study has been conducted to analyze carbon emissions embodied in trade between net exporting countries. To fill the research gap, this work systematically investigated the net carbon emissions embodied in trade between the largest net exporter of developing countries (China) and the largest net exporter of developed countries (German) based on the non-competitive input-output analysis. And the structural decomposition analysis was used to study the driving factors effecting the change of net embodied carbon emissions in Sino-German trade. The results show the net carbon emissions embodied in Sino-German trade increased significantly with the sharp increase of net trade volume after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Carbon transfer through trade was mainly concentrated in the carbon-intensive industrial sectors in Sino-German trade. This phenomenon was attributed to the differences in the trade structure and the production efficiency between China and Germany. The decomposition analysis shows China's intermediate input structure effect and the country structure effect of Germany's final demand were the leading contributors to growth in net carbon emission in Sino-German trade, which mainly was offset by China's carbon intensity effect. Finally, some policy implications are offered.

L’internationalisation des marchés en productions animales

Les productions animales représentent 16 % du commerce agroalimentaire international. Le déséquilibre croissant entre l’offre et la demande de produits animaux dans les pays asiatiques où la consommation progresse, surtout en Chine, stimule les échanges au bénéfice des grands pays exportateurs que sont l’Union européenne (UE), les États-Unis, la Nouvelle-Zélande, le Brésil et l’Australie. Si cette évolution offre des opportunités commerciales pour les pays structurellement excédentaires, les achats ne sont pas toujours réguliers d’une année à l’autre et la concurrence par les prix est très forte, même si certains pays ont des exigences qualitatives. L’UE, qui est excédentaire en produits laitiers et en viande porcine, mais déficitaire (en valeur) en viande bovine et en viande de volailles, est le premier exportateur mondial de productions animales (avec 22 % du total, hors commerce intra-UE en 2016). En utilisant les données statistiques des douanes (BACI et COMEXT) de 2000 à 2016, cet article traite de l’évolution du commerce en productions animales. Il présente l’évolution du commerce international pour différents types de biens (produits laitiers, viande bovine, viande porcine, viande de volailles) et met en évidence les trajectoires commerciales des principaux pays déficitaires (Chine, Japon et Russie) et excédentaires (Inde, Australie, Nouvelle-Zélande, Brésil, États-Unis et UE).

Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries

Do food imports increase the variability of domestic food prices? The answer to this question depends on whether foreign production is more volatile than domestic production. If imports are likely to destabilize domestic prices, storing crops for future consumption may prove an appealing strategy to cope with the adverse supply effects of a more unstable climate. Unfortunately, public storage has proven to be unsustainable due to the high costs of carrying crop inventories over time and the inability of policy planners to correctly forecast changes in domestic supply. Therefore, understanding the roles of imports and stocks on domestic food price instability is important as domestic shortfalls in food production are likely to become more frequent as the world’s climate becomes warmer. Using maize prices observed in 76 maize markets of 27 maize net importers across Africa, Asia and Latin America during 2000–2015, we find that, on average, a 1% increase in the ratio of imports to total consumption is correlated with a 0.29% reduction of the intra-annual coefficient of variation of maize prices; likewise a 1% increase in the amount of maize available in stocks at the beginning of the season is correlated with a 0.22% reduction in the said coefficient. We also find that climate-induced supply shocks toward mid-century may increase maize price variability in the focus countries by around 10%; these increases could be offset with similar increases in the ratio of imports to total consumption or in the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of the crop marketing year. The fact that both imports and stocks help to stabilize domestic prices suggests that their uses should hinge on a careful cost-benefit analysis, including the risk of facing world production more variable than domestic production and the costs of carrying maize inventories over time.

Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities

Global warming, coupled with disparate national population growth projections, could exert significant pressure on food prices, increasing the risk of food insecurity, particularly for net-importing countries. We investigated projected eventualities for a comprehensive set of 133 countries by the year 2030, and identified changes in the global agricultural crop trading pattern, with simulations from a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We based our model on population growth and temperature scenarios, as per the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Our simulations suggest an increase of 4.9% and 6.4% in global average prices and aggregate export crop volumes, respectively. This global exports expansion requires an increased 4.46% in current global aggregate crop output, since population growth raises demand, and thus, global average crop prices, further aggravating net importing countries’ financial burdens for food acquisition. Conversely, net exporting countries will fare better in the projected scenario due to increased agricultural income, as they are able to increase crop exports to meet the rising global demand and price. The gap in global income distribution widens, given that the majority of developing countries are coincidently located in tropical zones which are projected to experience negative crop yield shocks, while industrialized countries are located in cold and temperate zones projected to have favorable crop yield changes. National and international policy measures aimed at effectively alleviating net importing countries’ food security issues should also consider how global crop yields are geographically and diversely impacted by climate change.

Effects of income and population growth on fish price and welfare

ABSTRACTAn excess supply-demand model is used to determine the effects of income and population growth on the international price of fish and on welfare in net-exporting and importing regions. Stochastic simulations of the model suggest that fish price increases by between 0.25 and 1.07% for each 1% increase in world income, and by between 0.30 and 1.20% for each 1% increase in world population. Combining these elasticity estimates with the actual growth in income and population for 1999–2013, results suggest that income and population growth together caused the world price of fish to rise by between 1.0 and 4.1% per year, for a best-bet estimate of 2.1% per year. According to a trend regression the actual rise in fish price over the same approximate period averaged 1.0% per year. This suggests supply growth due to aquaculture cut the increase in price due to demand shifts by about one half. Higher fish prices increase welfare in net-exporting countries at the expense of welfare in net-importing countries. However, our results suggest that net gains to producers and consumers in the two regions combined are positive.

The sovereign debt crisis: The case of Spain

The sovereign debt crisis is often evoked as one of the main causes of the economic difficulties faced by net importing countries and as the rationale behind the austerity measures imposed on their residents. Nothing seems more evident than a country whose global, commercial and financial, imports exceed its global exports has to finance its deficit through a foreign loan. This inevitably leads to the formation of an external debt. Yet, things are less straightforward than they might appear, and a rigorous analysis is called for to verify whether any country’ sovereign debt is ever justifiable. The paper shows that it is because net global imports are paid twice that net importing countries run up a sovereign debt. The case of Spain is symptomatic and provides statistical confirmation of the pathological increase in the country's external debt.

Food Security in an Age of Falling Commodity and Food Prices

International prices of food and agricultural commodities had reached an extremely high level in 2007‐08 and subsequent years, but have more recently embarked on a declining trend. It is, though, not certain that they will reach the lower levels again that prevailed before the price peak. It appears conceivable that international markets have experienced a structural shift towards a longer‐term higher price level. While there is no certainty that prices will remain at such a higher level it appears that the international community should at least be prepared for such an outcome. High international food prices can undermine global food security as developing countries overall, and low‐income countries in particular, are net importers of food and agricultural products. Their net imports keep growing, above all those of cereals. In many developing countries, even rural households are net buyers of food. An increase in food prices reduces welfare and impacts negatively on food security in net importing countries and among net‐buying households. As far as policy implications are concerned, this means that high‐price policies, implemented through import tariffs and domestic measures, cannot be recommended for developing countries. The international community needs to invest more in agricultural development and food security in developing countries. We must not repeat he experience of the mid‐1970s, when the promises to do more for agricultural development after a similar period of food price peaks were soon forgotten after prices declined again.

Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security

Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

Abstract There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.

Harvest failures, temporary export restrictions and global food security: the example of limited grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) are major players in the international grain markets and their exports help to improve global grain availability and hence food security. However, during the last decade the availability of RUK grain exports was repeatedly diminished by harvest failures and further reduced by the introduction of export restrictions. By simulating a reoccurrence of the 2010 RUK harvest situation this paper assesses the impact of grain harvest failures and subsequent temporary export restrictions (bans, quotas, taxes) on national and international food security, specifically quantifying the effects on agricultural market prices and quantities. For the analysis AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply–demand model, has been employed. Simulation results highlight the importance of RUK’s grain production for world markets and global food security, indicating substantial price increases due to limited grain exports from RUK. Moreover, scenario results illustrate that temporary RUK export restrictions can considerably aggravate the situation on world grain markets, with particularly adverse effects for grain net importing countries. At the same time, results show that for a country like Ukraine, i.e. a country usually exporting large shares of its total grain production, the introduction of export restrictions could potentially result in decreases of domestic consumer prices to a level even below a situation with normal weather conditions. The results put international trade policy into focus and underline the necessity of greater cooperation on the part of exporting countries in order to avoid importing countries being denied necessary grain supplies.