Abstract
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) are major players in the international grain markets and their exports help to improve global grain availability and hence food security. However, during the last decade the availability of RUK grain exports was repeatedly diminished by harvest failures and further reduced by the introduction of export restrictions. By simulating a reoccurrence of the 2010 RUK harvest situation this paper assesses the impact of grain harvest failures and subsequent temporary export restrictions (bans, quotas, taxes) on national and international food security, specifically quantifying the effects on agricultural market prices and quantities. For the analysis AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply–demand model, has been employed. Simulation results highlight the importance of RUK’s grain production for world markets and global food security, indicating substantial price increases due to limited grain exports from RUK. Moreover, scenario results illustrate that temporary RUK export restrictions can considerably aggravate the situation on world grain markets, with particularly adverse effects for grain net importing countries. At the same time, results show that for a country like Ukraine, i.e. a country usually exporting large shares of its total grain production, the introduction of export restrictions could potentially result in decreases of domestic consumer prices to a level even below a situation with normal weather conditions. The results put international trade policy into focus and underline the necessity of greater cooperation on the part of exporting countries in order to avoid importing countries being denied necessary grain supplies.
Highlights
During the Soviet times, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) were main producers of wheat and coarse grains1 for other Soviet republics
We aim to address the following questions: What would be the impact of a reoccurrence of a similar RUK harvest situation as in 2010 on global grain markets and food security? How do different temporary export restrictions implemented in RUK affect quantities and prices on both the domestic and world markets? How do the impacts vary between net exporting and net importing countries?
This paper assesses the effects of harvest failures and subsequent temporary grain export restrictions in RUK on national and international food security by quantifying their impact on agricultural market quantities and prices
Summary
During the Soviet times, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) were main producers of wheat and coarse grains for other Soviet republics. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 the RUK countries began their transition from centrally planned to market economies. This transition comprised an overall restructuring of the agricultural sector and the production of almost all agricultural commodities in RUK went down dramatically. During the 2000s agricultural output in RUK began to rebound, and the three countries became big players in the international trade of agricultural products, especially with regard to exports in the grain sector. The livestock sector in RUK experienced a severe contraction during the 1990s, which led to big decreases in domestic feed demand and an increase in exportable grain surpluses (Liefert et al 2010; OECD-FAO 2011; Liefert et al 2013)
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