Neoclassical Realism Research Articles

Getting China Right

Under Xi Jinping, China puts regime security and a revived ideology, ‘Xi Thought’, at the core of its foreign policy. This distorts how ‘national interest’ is calculated and impedes China from behaving in the way neoclassical realism suggests a rising superpower would behave. Xi adheres to a China-first approach. The United States and its partners could respond more effectively to China’s conduct in three main ways. Firstly, they could stop framing their competition with China as one of democracy versus authoritarianism, as this has limited appeal for the Global South. Secondly, insofar as Xi’s approach is often not conducive to his stated goals for his ‘China dream’, the US could allow him to undermine them himself. Finally, the US could adopt a foreign policy of putting the interests of the global community first, as it effectively did during the Cold War, such that America’s allies would be more willing to support the United States over China in a crisis, and other countries less prone to taking sides against the US.

The formative years of Iran’s ‘jihadi field diplomacy’ in Azerbaijan

ABSTRACT This study examines the formative years of Iran’s so-called ‘jihadi field diplomacy’ toward Azerbaijan during and after the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. To accomplish this, I adopt a novel version of neoclassical realism, which considers the socially constructed nature of variables. The application of constructivist neoclassical realism facilitates a deeper comprehension of the reasons and mechanisms behind Iran’s embrace of unconventional interventionist policies in Azerbaijan. I argue that Iran’s jihadi field diplomacy is characterized by two main features: the use of military tools to achieve foreign policy goals and a distinct leadership structure that operates independently of the government. Then I analyze three turning points that shaped Iran’s jihadi field diplomacy toward Azerbaijan. Firstly, after a failed diplomatic mediation between Yerevan and Baku in May 1992, Iran intensified its military and ideological efforts in Azerbaijan. Secondly, during the June 1993 coup, Iran supported pro-Russian coup leader Colonel Huseynov and sought to persuade him to collaborate with ex-Communist Aliyev against nationalist President Elchibey. Aliyev later perceived this initial cooperation as a serious ideological and military challenge. Lastly, the perceived threat and Iran’s Quds Force connections to the leaders of the subsequent military uprisings adversely affected bilateral relations between Iran and Azerbaijan.

Reconstructing neoclassical realism: a transitive approach

Neoclassical Realism’s (NCR) theoretical relevance is on the line. The structural realist variant of the paradigm, tasked to explain why states react inefficiently to systemic stimuli is threatened with triviality by being assigned to explain a few cases of deviance. This is given the usual lack of ability on the part of those stimuli to point to a single optimal state response. In acknowledgement of the permissiveness of systemic stimuli, a second generation of NCR scholarship has proposed the development of a general theory of explaining foreign policy as the joint result of the limits imposed by them and the function of non-systemic factors – ideas and domestic politics – in selecting outcomes from within those limits. But this endeavour has been charged with the ‘crime’ of striping NCR of its theoretical distinctiveness, based on the argument that both types of causes are prima facie symmetrical. Accepting the view that NCR faces such an impasse, this article points towards a third pathway, termed transitive NCR. What is proposed under the latter is the longitudinal study of policy trends and patterns as the outcome of the transitive interplay between systemic and non-systemic factors; that is, the careful study of the ways in which systemic factors activate a number of non-systemic causal mechanisms, leading to the explained trends and patterns. In this way, the paradigm acquires distinctiveness and sufficient explanatory breadth while building bridges with other paradigms committed to the multicausal study of long-time periods.

Neoclassical Realism and the Belt and Road Initiative: Geopolitics, Economic Cooperation and Security Challenges

Neoclassical Realism and the Belt and Road Initiative: Geopolitics, Economic Cooperation and Security Challenges

Neoclassical Realism as a Theory for Correcting Mistakes: What State X Should Do Next Tuesday

Abstract Neoclassical realism has carved a unique niche by offering a theoretically derived and empirically rich foreign policy analysis framework. Over the years, it has branched out as a theory of mistakes (Type I), a theory of foreign policy (Type II), and a theory of international politics (Type III). This article proposes another challenge to consolidate its offer of a progressive research agenda to position it as a theory for correcting mistakes. The theory of mistakes version differentiates ideal from actual foreign policy. The ideal corresponds to foreign policy that follows the pressures and incentives of the international system; structural realism, the basis for this optimal baseline, is here viewed as a normative theory. If there is a gap between the ideal baseline and the actual outcome, then foreign policy is sub-optimal and therefore costly. According to neoclassical realists, this is the result of the intervention of domestic political processes hijacking foreign policy. It follows that pointing out how to reduce the distorting impact of these domestic variables should help steer foreign policy toward optimality. By identifying the negative consequences that follow from a sub-optimal foreign policy, a theory for correcting mistakes also opens the door to developing prescriptions to manage the inevitable fallout.

Analysis of Turkey’s Foreign Policy Towards the 1956 Suez Crisis from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realist Theory

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin 1956 Süveyş krizi konusunda yürüttüğü dış politikayı neoklasik realist teori çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, bir bağımlı değişken olarak “1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasını” analiz etmek için, çalışmanın metodolojisi gereği, “uluslararası sistemsel faktörler” bir bağımsız değişken ve “yerel faktörler” bir ara değişken olarak ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmada 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikası yapımı sürecinde belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu öne sürülen uluslararası sistemin yapısı, Soğuk Savaş döneminde süper güçler arasındaki ideolojik karşıtlık ve nükleer rekabeti ifade eden iki kutupluluk ile ilişkilendirilerek açıklanmaktadır. “Caydırıcı askeri kapasite ihtiyacı”, “Türk dış politikası geleneğindeki Batıcılık eğilimi”, “ekonomik teşvik gereksinimi” ve “karar alıcıların bölgesel liderlik çabası” gibi çeşitli faktörler ise uluslararası sistemin belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı etkilerini yorumlayıcı nitelikteki yerel filtreler olarak ele alınmaktadır. İki farklı analiz düzeyinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada hem 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasının sistemsel etkilere dayanan “sürekliliği” hem de yerel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan “değişim eğilimi” ortaya konulmaktadır.

EXPANDING THE HORIZON OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS: A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST APPROACH

Neoclassical realism (NCR) has diversified the determinants of foreign policy analysis. It has blended the proposition of Innenpolitik, classical realism and the structural realism. The three (independent, intervening and dependent) variables which denote international anarchical structure, domestic factors of the state and the response to the external stimuli respectively has given a holistic view to the foreign policy analysis. While doing so, various scholars of international relations have questioned its paradigmatic relevance but still they trace their roots in the realist paradigm because they incorporate the realist proposition

Rethinking the division of labor in IR: ‘critical’ and ‘problem-solving’ theories

Decades after their incorporation into the discipline, the argument that critical approaches are marginalized in the discipline of International Relations (IR) is increasingly becoming questionable. Thus, it is a good time to reflect on critical approaches’ evolution and achievements, as well as their ‘marginalized position in IR’ and relations with conventional approaches. For this aim, this paper focuses on realism(s) and critical theory(ies) while asking whether these two research traditions are conducting 'fair criticisms' to each other based on their own claims and whether their criticisms help develop IR theory's capacity in explaining and/or understanding world politics or undermine it. Accordingly, the paper first analyzes the realist school of thought in IR, going through the main arguments of classical realism, structural realism, and neo-classical realism. Second, it focuses on the development and main assumptions of critical theory (Marxist-inspired approaches, Frankfurt School and Neo-Gramscianism) mainly by focusing on Cox and Ashley's works and critical scholars' readings of them. Third, the paper discusses the main points of cleavages between the two approaches mainly based on the famous division of labor (criticizing vs solving problems), and their criticisms to each other while assessing the pearls and pitfalls of each. Following the discussion, the paper asks whether is there a way out of these dichotomies and whether it is possible to create a productive dialogue between 'problem-solving' and 'critical' schools of thought.

Türkiye’nin Dış Politika Davranışının Neoklasik Realist Bir Açıklaması: Bülent Ecevit’in 1978-1979 ve 1999-2002 Hükümetlerinin Karşılaştırılması

This study examines and compares the foreign policy behavior of Türkiye under the premiership of Bülent Ecevit between 1978-1979 and 1999-2002 via utilization of neo-classical realist theory. The article argues that the permissive strategic environment in both periods, détente in the former and unipolar international system in the latter paved the way for Türkiye’s multi-dimensional foreign policy which put special emphasis on neighboring regions. The worldviews of Ecevit and his foreign ministers Gündüz Ökçün and İsmail Cem as well as the emergence of grave economic problems in the country also contributed to the consolidation of region-centric foreign policy streak in both periods. Yet, while the arrival of the Second Cold War in December 1979 following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan interrupted Türkiye’s multi-dimensional foreign policy stance for a while, the increasing trend towards multi-polarity starting from mid-2000s facilitated Türkiye’s pursuit of more autonomous foreign policy line.

Saudi Arabian strategy reassessment since 2003: The emergence of a regional leadership via Neoclassical Realist lenses

This article argues that the well-discussed international behaviour change in Saudi Arabia, rather than being a consequence of the so-called Arab Spring, resulted from a grand strategy reassessment in the early 2000s. Grand strategy concerns how states assess the geostrategic environment, plan resource allocation and prioritize policy to meet national interests. Since the 1970s, Riyadh judged its geopolitical vulnerabilities concerning Iran and Iraq realistically, supporting the least threatening actor from the two and relying on the United States to protect the status quo. However, the 2003 Iraqi invasion forced strategy reevaluation, as it removed Baghdad from the power competition, empowering Tehran, Washington and Riyadh. In this new scenario, Saudi Arabia eventually decides on regional leadership as its priority interest, promoting, thus, partial autonomy from Washington and competition with Tehran. By employing Neoclassical Realism, this article argues that the reevaluation was gradual and in continuity with the monarchical logic. For that, it explores Saudi power position and shifts within status satisfaction and inter-monarchical preferences. Empirically, the article aims to demystify the image of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman as something that turned the tables within the leadership, arguing that changes in the country's international relations preceded his rise to power, being linked to King Abdullah. It concludes that, while Saudi Arabian geopolitical goal was clear for outside observers only after 2011, the planning process takes precedence. Theoretically, by providing insight into Saudi Arabia's status-seeking behaviour, its motivations and potential limitations, the article also contributes to discussions about de-Westernizing Realism by incorporating Middle Eastern contextuality.

The REPowerEU: An EU Climate Ambitions and Its Implications On Russian-European Energy Geopolitics Stability

As the third largest carbon-emitting country in the world, the European Union has more responsibility to address the problem of preventing climate change. However, the climate management policies implemented by the European Union need to be more effective to achieve the long-term targets in the Paris Agreement. Responding to this, the European Union is planning a new policy, REPowerEU. REPowerEU is a follow-up effort from the European Union towards a clean energy transition and a form of Europe's anger towards Russia's geopolitical energy behaviour. In addition, the REPowerEU Plan is a tool the European Union uses to break away from energy dependence on Russia so that it can be more independent in determining foreign policy. This study aims to assess the impact of the implementation of the European Union's energy policy on Russian-European political stability. This study uses qualitative methods by collecting data through literature studies. This research is analyzed using the neoclassical realism paradigm based on energy geopolitics. It found that there are positive and negative impact in applying REPowerEU to decrease dependency of Russia’s energy supply to Europe.

A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Overbalancing

Abstract Why do states overestimate threats and, as a result, mount disproportionately strong and therefore costly balancing responses? To answer this question, we build a neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing to argue that unit-level intervening variables help generate a counterforce greater than what a structurally induced ideal response would call for. We identify the factors and conditions that steer states to deviate from realist, optimal policies, pinpoint the consequences of such suboptimal behavior, and provide policymakers with recommendations more suited to an interest-driven foreign policy in line with power considerations. We apply our theory to two distinct case studies: Egypt's costly intervention in Yemen in the 1960s and the American overreaction to the real, but very limited, threat posed by terrorism since 2001.

STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE IN THE US-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

This study analyses the US-Pakistan relationship during the Trump administration from a neo-classical realist lens. Along with systemic influences, the analysis framework also includes the role of domestic and cognitive factors in understanding both sides’ perceptions, behaviors, and preferences toward each other. During Trump’s presidential term, both sides could not fritter away the mistrust and move beyond the traditional course of engagement characterized by tactical convergence based on the rewards for service rendered by Pakistan. Pakistan was not a strategic choice for Washington since the two countries had contrasting expectations on evolving global developments, emerging regional geo-political and domestic reconfigurations. Parallel to this, Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities were exploited by the Republicans to reassert their leverage in bargaining. This grey area helped the White House allure Pakistan with its carrot-and-stick approach and compelled policy planners in Islamabad to think that a strong foreign policy always rests on a strong domestic base.

The Inhibition and Equilibrium of Policy Effectiveness of the Low-Carbon Economy: Evidence from Liaoning Province of China.

Excessive emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have seriously affected the ecological environment, public health, and the normal operation of the social economy, and the development of the low-carbon economy has become an international consensus. The policy norms are one of the important factors affecting the development of the low-carbon economy; however, the implementation of low-carbon economic policy in many countries has been inhibited. This study chose Liaoning Province of China for the case study, and the policy system, the policy tools, the administrative system, the low-carbon technology, and the low-carbon concept are found to be factors that led to the inhibition of the policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province. We applied the modified Schweller Neoclassical Realist Theory to establish a multi-factor linkage model to demonstrate the overall relationship among various variables. The results show that the equilibrium of policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province depends on different permutations of variables. We also discussed the problems of the policy system, the policy tools, the administrative system, the low-carbon technology, and the low-carbon concept that lead to policy effectiveness inhibition, and used the economic method to set a special mathematical model for maximizing the equilibrium of policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province. In response to the problems of the above factors, strategies to promote the development of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province are proposed. This study enriches the research on the policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in China and provides some inspiration for the goal of carbon neutrality and other developing countries with high carbon emissions.

Navigating great power competition: a neoclassical realist view of hedging

Abstract Contrary to predictions that smaller powers will balance against or bandwagon with external threats, Southeast Asian states are hedging by deepening their security cooperation with both the United States and China. Prevailing accounts of hedging do not adequately explain the persistence of such policy choices given growing threat perceptions of China and mounting bipolar pressures. After considering the limitations of existing theories, this article contends that a neoclassical realist approach to hedging better integrates the domestic and international factors that inform decision-makers’ preferences. It operationalizes this theoretical framework in three case studies: Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A neoclassical realist approach takes the role of individual perceptions and bureaucracies seriously, without dismissing the significance of variables identified by neorealism, including security threats, treaty alliances, and economic benefits. Ultimately, a more complete and accurate understanding of what continues to propel hedging in Southeast Asian states can mitigate the risks of great power conflict.

The Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy in Syria: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Since 2011, the Syrian Civil War has become an arena of international competition between regional and global powers. As a dominant regional actor, Turkey has important interests in this conflict. However, although great importance is given to civil war factors and power balances at the field level, Turkey’s internal conditions play a role as well as these externalities. Therefore, an analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria from a local perspective is needed to reveal some negligible dynamics. In this direction, this study aims to analyse Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria, taking into account the interaction between Turkey’s external and internal dynamics within the framework of neoclassical realist theory. Within this scope, we ask “how do Turkish external and internal dynamics explain its foreign policy in Syria?” as the leading search question and conduct our analysis using the explanatory case study method. Based on our findings, we provide a broad perspective on the significant impacts of four main internal factors on Turkish foreign policy, from the start of the Civil War to the most recent “Operation Spring Shield” by the Turkish Army and local Syrian armed groups.

Foreign Policy of Bangladesh towards India-China Tussle: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis

The security of South Asia often remains in turmoil because of the rivalry between the neighboring countries. South Asian countries, particularly developing states, adhere to the principles of strategic hedging for security and economic development. Bangladesh, as an ambitious and developing state, is no exception. Aiming for economic prosperity, Bangladesh tries to maintain a balanced relationship with its bordering states. The evolving regional economic and political dynamics are becoming more competitive and challenging than ever before. This competitive environment can enable Bangladesh to pursue economic and political advantages, reflecting neoclassical realism. Considering the South Asian political developments, the India-China relationship serves as the foundation of regional balance. This research utilizes a qualitative methodology based on neo-classical realism to assess previous data and forecast potential intervening variables that drive Bangladesh to achieve strategic balance in its bilateral relationship with India and China. In this context, the study uses the neoclassical realist model to explain the structural and national interests of Bangladesh and the influence of the strategic environment of the region on its foreign policies.

A neoclassical-realist analysis of Japan’s stance on cross-strait relations

Since 1972, Tokyo has maintained official diplomatic relations with Beijing, while stressing the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Based on governmental documents and decision-makers’ political declarations, this article examines Japan’s approach towards cross-strait relations since the 1990s. It applies the perspective of neoclassical realism by analyzing both the international determinants (independent variables) and the domestic factors (intervening variables) behind Tokyo’s approach to ‘One China’ policy. The article tries to answer the question why different Japanese governments reacted in various ways to cross-strait frictions and rapprochement. It is argued that the level of Tokyo’s involvement in the Taiwan problem was dependent both on international and domestic factors. Growing concerns about China’s military buildup, coupled with a gradual demise of pro-Beijing faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, pushed Japan towards containing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while ameliorating relations with Taipei. As Sino-Japanese relations deteriorated, Tokyo became less inclined to lecture Taiwan against provoking Beijing and more willing to support Taipei’s international initiatives. At the same time, Japan started perceiving cross-strait rapprochement not only as a factor stabilizing the regional security system, but also as a potential threat to national security.

American and Canadian engagements in the Afghanistan intervention: a neoclassical realist point of view

ABSTRACT In this article, I aim to explain why and how the United States and Canada adopted similar counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies between 2006 and 2011 to deal with the Afghan irregular warfare. During this time, the United States and Canada adopted with similar levels of intensity the “clear,” “hold,” and “build” COIN objectives; namely: (a) fighting against insurgency, (b) maintaining stabilized areas and training Afghan forces, and (c) helping reconstruct the absent, weak, or corrupt governance in Afghanistan. These similar engagement levels are surprising considering the periods between 2001 and 2005 and 2011 and 2014 when Canadian and American strategies were dissimilar as expected from their relative standing in the international system. I use a process-tracing methodology and neoclassical realism as a theory of foreign policy to unravel this puzzle.

Neoclassical realism

Neoclassical realism