Negative Secular Trend Research Articles

Improving Motor Competence of Children: The "Super Quinas" Intervention Program in Portuguese Primary Schools.

The objective of this study was to describe the effects of an extra hour of a structured motor program on the motor competence (MC) of children 6-10 years old.. The need for movement interventions to enhance MC among school-aged children has gained vital importance in the last years, given the negative secular trends reported. Hence, the Portuguese Football Federation organized an intervention program on MC to be implemented on the extracurricular time of the Portuguese primary schools: the Super Quinas program. Thirty-nine schools from all of Portugal were assigned to intervention and control condition, with a total of 1034 children (6-10 y old) completing all the program (77.7%). The Super Quinas intervention comprised of 1 hour of activity per week, led by a physical educator teacher during extracurricular activities for 12wees. MC was assessed using the Motor Competence Assessment (MCA) before and at the end of the program (January and April 2023). Normative results of the MCA were used to compare changes between pre and posttest according to experimental or control condition. Results showed a general improvement (P ≤ .001) for all subscales (Locomotor, Manipulative, Stability) and total MCA. More importantly, the experimental group showed significant and positive differences, when compared with the control group, in the Stability (P = .007), Manipulative (P = .015), and total MCA results (P = .018) after controlling for gender, age, and baseline effect. The Super Quinas intervention program proved that adding 1 hour of structured movement program to the regular primary school schedule can lead to greater development of MC in school-age children.

Secular trends in anthropometric characteristics and their associations with external skeletal robustness among Slovenian young adults’ population

Objectives: To determine secular trends in body height, fat-mass, fat-free mass, and external skeletal robustness in young adults and examine possible relationship between them. Methods: Anthropometric data (body height, body mass; skinfold thickness (SFT) – triceps, abdominal, thigh; circumferences (C) – waist, upper arm, thigh; width – elbow, knee) of young adults aged 20-25 years (N = 5303; males 1985, females 3318) were used from the Slovenian (data)Base of Anthropometric Measurements from 1960 to 2023. Multiple linear regressions were performed. Results: The most significant positive secular trends (p < 0.000) were observed in males for abdominal SFT (B = 0.151, R2 = 0.169) and thigh SFT (B = 0.131, R2 = 0.142). In females, similar trend was observed in waist C (B = 0.151; R2 = 0.169). The most significant negative secular trend (p < 0.001) was observed in muscle area of lower limbs in both sexes (males: B = - 0.427, R2 = 0.000; females: B = - 0.875, R2 = 0.300). Body height and overall body mass were the most important factors influencing the observed decline in external skeletal robustness assessed with frame index according to elbow and knee width according to multiple linear regression. Conclusion: Over the last 60 years, a positive secular trend was observed in body height and body fat, while a negative trend was noted in muscle mass. Increases in body height and overall body mass had the most significant impact on the observed decrease in assessed external skeletal robustness over time.

Secular trends and sociodemographic, biological, and behavioural factors associated with handgrip strength in adolescents in southern Brazil: An allometric approach

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to analyse secular trend in handgrip strength (HGS) in adolescents using an allometric approach and identify the factors associated. The sample comprised 657 and 1004 adolescents (14 to 19 years) in 2007 and 2017/2018, respectively, of public schools in Florianópolis, Brazil. The dependent variable was HGS normalised to body mass and height. Covariance analysis was used to examine secular trends in HGS, and multiple linear regression was used to identify associated factors. The independent variables were sociodemographic, biological, and behavioural factors. Comparison of HGS between surveys indicated a negative secular trend in both sexes (p < 0.001). In boys, there was a positive association of HGS with age and FFM in both surveys. In 2017/18, there was a positive association with sexual maturation and a negative association with sitting time and fat percentage. In girls, FFM was positively associated with HGS in both surveys. In 2007, there were positive associations of HGS with age and vigorous physical activity, whereas, in 2017/18, negative associations were observed with economic level and sitting time. The findings of the present study show a decline in adolescent HGS. And behavioural changes appear to be contributing to declines in HGS.

Secular trends in physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence in children and adolescents born between 1978 and 1993.

Human physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence have been documented as increasing for over 100 years. Comparing the timing of secular trends in these characteristics could provide insight into what underlies them. However, they have not been examined in parallel in the same cohort during different developmental phases. Thus, the aim of this study was to examine secular trends in body height, weight, and head circumference, biological maturation, and intelligence by assessing these traits concurrently at four points during development: the ages of 4, 9, 14, and 18 years. Data derived from growth measures, bone age as an indicator of biological maturation, and full-scale intelligence tests were drawn from 236 participants of the Zurich Longitudinal Studies born between 1978 and 1993. In addition, birth weight was analyzed as an indicator of prenatal conditions. Secular trends for height and weight at 4 years were positive (0.35 SD increase per decade for height and an insignificant 0.27 SD increase per decade for weight) and remained similar at 9 and 14 years (height: 0.46 SD and 0.38 SD increase per decade; weight: 0.51 SD and 0.51 SD increase per decade, respectively) as well as for weight at age 18 years (0.36 SD increase per decade). In contrast, the secular trend in height was no longer evident at age 18 years (0.09 SD increase per decade). Secular trends for biological maturation at 14 years were similar to those of height and weight (0.54 SD increase per decade). At 18 years, the trend was non-significant (0.38 SD increase per decade). For intelligence, a positive secular trend was found at 4 years (0.54 SD increase per decade). In contrast, negative secular trends were observed at 9 years (0.54 SD decrease per decade) and 14 years (0.60 SD decrease per decade). No secular trend was observed at any of the four ages for head circumference (0.01, 0.24, 0.17, and - 0.04 SD increase per decade, respectively) and birth weight (0.01 SD decrease per decade). The different patterns of changes in physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence between 1978 and 1993 indicate that distinct mechanisms underlie these secular trends.

Secular Trends in Gross Motor Coordination: A Study of Peruvian Children Living at High Altitude.

To (1) describe secular trends in gross motor coordination (GMC) scores by sex and age; (2) investigate GMC trends adjusted for concomitant secular trends in height, weight, and overall physical fitness; and (3) examine trends in children's frequencies within different GMC categories. The sample comprises 1562 Peruvian children (690 in 2009 and 872 in 2019), aged 6-11years, from Junín (a high-altitude region). GMC was assessed with the KörperkoordinationsTest für Kinder. Physical fitness was assessed with handgrip strength, standing long jump, and shuttle-run test. Height and weight were measured with standardized protocols. Analysis of variance, covariance, and logistic regression were used. A negative secular trend in GMC (based on raw scores) for boys and girls aged 6-8years was observed. However, a positive trend was observed at 11years of age but only in boys. Finally, there were no significant changes in the likelihood of children having below-normal GMC from 2009 to 2019. Secular trends in GMC were negative in Peruvian children, especially at 6-8years of age. Further, body size and physical fitness trends did not affect the negative secular trend. A high prevalence of children had below-normal GMC in both 2009 and 2019.

"Prevalence and secular trend of neural tube defects in fetal deaths in Argentina, 1994-2019".

Fetal deaths are a major source of information on the epidemiology of neural tube defects (NTDs; anencephaly and myelomeningocele). We analyzed NTDs prevalence and secular trend using fetal death records between 1994 and 2019 in Argentina. Data were obtained from the Department of Statistics and Information of the Ministry of Health (DEIS). Using the number of fetal deaths due to anencephaly and myelomeningocele, we estimated the proportion of all fetal deaths due to anencephaly, myelomeningocele, and NTDs (anencephaly + myelomeningocele) during pre- and post-fortification period in Argentina. We also estimated the ratio of fetal deaths due to anencephaly, myelomeningocele, and NTDs (anencephaly + myelomeningocele) to 10,000 live births. Secular trend in the outcomes was analyzed using a Poisson model and Joinpoint regression analysis. In the entire period analyzed, the NTD proportion on fetal deaths was 1.32. In 1994, NTDs accounted for 34.7% of congenital malformations fetal deaths (CM) and 1.7% of all fetal deaths, whereas in 2019, these percentages were 9.4% and 0.5%, respectively. NTDs present a negative secular trend (p < .05). The risk of fetal death due to anencephaly and myelomeningocele decreases between 2005 and 2019 by 67% and 51% respectively (p < .05) in comparison to the period between 1994 and 2004 before the effective fortification of wheat flour used in the food industry destined for the domestic market. We found a significant decrease in the risk of all fetal deaths due to NTDs, particularly anencephaly, in Argentina over the study period, with most reduction observed during the mandatory flour fortification era (introduced in Argentina in 2002). The inclusion of fetal deaths in NTD surveillance, coupled or uncoupled with other pregnancy outcomes, is essential for monitoring preventive supplementation measures.

Time trends (2010-2020) in skinfolds thickness in children and adolescents, with different BMI status, from Kraków (Poland).

Objectives: To analyse secular changes (2010-2020) in skinfold thickness in children and adolescents in different BMI categories. Methods: The study group consisted of 3-16-year olds included in two cross-sectional studies. Measurements included height, weight and 5 skinfolds. The Body Mass Index was used to categorize participants into low (underweight), normal or excess (overweight and obesity) weight groups based on IOTF cut-off points. Differences of skinfold thicknesses between both cohorts, within each of the weight status categories, were assessed using two-way ANOVA and Tukey's tests. Results: In both sexes, there was a negative secular trend in limb adiposity among the normal weight and underweight cohorts. However, in both of those subpopulations individuals examined in 2020 had greater trunk adiposity, in comparison to their counterparts examined in 2010. Declining limb adiposity was also present in the overweight category. Although, trunk adiposity among individuals with overweight was generally comparable in both cohorts. Conclusions: There was a tendency towards normal weight obesity, particularly excess abdominal adiposity, among the 2020 cohort. These findings further suggest that using only the BMI, without taking into consideration tissue composition of the body, may result in misclassification of children and adolescents with high adiposity as normal-weight.

Changes in the adiposity level and prevalence of overweight/obesity among children from Kraków (Poland) within the last decade (from 2010 to 2020).

The aim of this study was to assess the changes in the prevalence of overweight, obesity and high adiposity in children and adolescents from Krakow (Poland), between the years 2010 and 2020. Two cross-sectional series of anthropometric measurements were carried out in 2010 and 2020. Analysed characteristics included: body height and weight, BMI (Body Mass Index), body adiposity (%BF). The subjects were categorised according to their BMI (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity), as well as %BF (low, normal, high body fat).The research was conducted in randomly selected primary schools in Krakow (Poland). Studied cohorts (8-15 years of age), which represented four of the traditional residential districts: Śródmieście, Podgórze, Krowodrza and Nowa Huta. Among the girls, there was a negative secular trend regarding the prevalence of underweight and obesity. On the other hand, there also was a positive trend concerning the prevalence of overweight and low and high body fat. In boys, there was a negative secular trend regarding the prevalence of underweight and low adiposity. There was also a generally positive secular trend regarding the prevalence of overweight, obesity as well as high adiposity in boys. The findings of this study are particularly significant because detailed knowledge of the prevalence of overweight/obesity in childhood and adolescence is crucial for the future health of entire populations. Further studies should also take into account the levels of physical fitness and activity of the examined population.

Secular changes in the waist, hips circumferences and selected associated indicators, among preschool children from Kraków (Poland), between 1983 and 2018

Waist circumference and derived indicators are great for measuring the risk of abdominal obesity. The main aim of the study was to assess the changes in the waist, hips circumferences and selected associated indicators, among preschool children (3-7years of age) from Kraków, Poland, between 1983, 2008 and 2018. The research was conducted in randomly selected kindergarten in Krakow (Poland). The 1983 cohort consisted of 1414 children and the 2008 and 2018 series included 1050 preschoolers each. Analyzed characteristics included waist and hip circumferences, body height, waist-to-hips ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). There was a negative secular trend regarding circumferences of the hips and waist, as well as WHtR. In girls, WHR was, the greatest in the 2018 cohort, while among boys there was a secular increase in the value of this parameter compared to the 2008 cohort, but not to the 1983 series. The coexistence of currently noted trends with the previously described secular decrease in the prevalence of overweight/obesity and increase in trunk adiposity in the same population, suggests that WHR is preferable to body mass index in assessing the risk associated with excess adiposity in the population examined in the presented study.

The secular trend of intelligence test scores in the present century: The Danish experience

The present register-based study investigated the secular trend of intelligence test scores during the period from 2006 through 2019 in a Danish population-representative sample, as well as whether the observed trend could be explained by changes in parental age, dysgenics, and immigration or changes in the format of the intelligence test and sample characteristics. The study population consisted of all Danish men appearing before a draft board during the study period (N = 400,288). Intelligence test scores were obtained by the use of Børge Priens Prøve, typically at age 19. For each of the included draft board cohorts, the intelligence test score mean and standard deviation were estimated. The results showed that changes in mean intelligence test scores were minimal during the study period. A slight decline was observed from 2006 to 2010. Furthermore, there was a drop of 1.5 IQ points from 2010 to 2011, which coincided with the change in the format of the intelligence test from paper-and-pencil to computer-based, but there was essentially no change after 2011. Neither changes in parental age, dysgenics, or immigration seem to have influenced the observations. However, changes in sample composition may conceal a true decline in intelligence test scores given that a larger proportion of individuals with low intelligence seems to be exempted from testing. In conclusion, the study findings suggest no systematic change in intelligence test scores during the last decade, but due to changes in sample composition, it cannot be excluded that there has been a negative secular trend.

Why are Some Recoveries Short and Others Long?

Using the recession recovery point equal to the month when private payrolls first exceeded their previous peak level, this paper argues that it was the negative secular trend in manufacturing jobs that was the most important determinant of the length and depth of the last three recessions/recoveries. This negative secular trend changed the layoff/recall pattern of jobs in manufacturing into permanent displacements, a malady that lengthened the recovery periods and that is not the explicit target of either traditional monetary policy or traditional fiscal policy. Using the ideas gathered from an examination of the US two-digit sectoral data for the US overall, attention turns to the recession/recoveries of the 50 US states in the last three national recession periods. Regressions that explain the lengths and depths of the recessions in 50 US states reveal the importance of construction jobs, but the most important predictor was manufacturing jobs: the greater the share of manufacturing jobs prior to the recession, the worse was the recession/recovery.

Vivir en los límites del Gran Chaco y la región pampeana: aportes al estudio de las poblaciones de la costa sur de Laguna Mar Chiquita (Córdoba) desde la Arqueología y la Bioantropología

En este trabajo se presenta una síntesis de las investigaciones realizadas en 25 sitios de la costa sur de la Laguna Mar Chiquita desde distintas líneas de análisis: estudios sobre la historia y evolución biológica de las poblaciones, dieta, usos del cuerpo y estilo de vida a partir de distintos bioindicadores, tales como isótopos estables y microrrestos vegetales, tecnología cerámica y prácticas mortuorias. Los cambios y continuidades detectados son situados en un marco cronológico preciso (32 fechados radiocarbónicos, 4525-375 14C años AP), y con referencia al modelo paleoambiental propuesto para el área. Se propone una ocupación humana desde fines del Holoceno medio, con un hiato entre 3800-2500 años AP y una intensificación notable entre 700 y 500 años AP. Los estudios bioantropológicos permiten diferenciar a estas poblaciones de las que ocuparon la región serrana de Córdoba, y proponen cambios en la composición poblacional a partir de 1200 años AP, sugiriendo similitudes con poblaciones del noreste de Patagonia, noreste de región pampeana y región chaco-santiagueña. Se destaca la importancia del consumo de plantas silvestres durante todo el período, incorporando cultígenos de forma complementaria con posterioridad a 1200 años AP. A partir de este momento se sugiere un incremento en los niveles de actividad física, aumento en la prevalencia de ciertas patologías orales y tendencia secular negativa en la talla de los individuos femeninos. Particularmente a partir de 700 años AP, el crecimiento poblacional, sumado al aumento de las tensiones sociales, podría estar indicando un desmejoramiento en la calidad de vida hacia finales del Holoceno tardío.

Secular trends in cranial size and shape among black South Africans over the late 19th and 20th centuries

Background Previous studies of secular change in cranial size among black South Africans have produced conflicting results. Aim We re-examined cranial size change in this population during the 19th and 20th century by evaluating its relationship with individual year-of-birth, and the significance of trends among eight decennial cohorts. Subjects and methods This study is based on 102 male and 89 female adults born between 1865 and 1959. Linear regressions were employed to evaluate possible relationships between year-of-birth and cranial dimensions; ANOVAs were used to evaluate the significance of long-term trends among decennial cohorts. Results No analysis revealed a secular change in cranial length in either sex; however, the ANOVA for cranial length in the combined sex sample was significant. There is no secular trend in female cranial breadth, but males display a negative trend in this dimension. This results in a secular trend for increased male dolichocephaly. Conclusions The factors that underlie the negative secular trend in male cranial breadth and the absence of a secular trend in overall cranial size in this population are unclear. Nevertheless, these observations accord with findings related to stature and long bone strength in this population and are consistent with observations for other sub-Saharan African populations.

Reference values and secular trends for cardiorespiratory fitness in children and adolescents with obesity.

To present specific reference values for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in children with obesity and to analyse secular trends of CRF in the studied population. Cardiorespiratory fitness, the maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max), was estimated with the Åstrand-Rhyming submaximal bicycle test, in 705 Swedish children (356 girls, 8-20years) with obesity according to the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). Data were collected from 1999 to 2013. Secular trends, analysed with multiple linear regression, were adjusted for age, height and body mass index standard deviation score (BMI SDS). All children had low CRF compared with normal weight standards but there was a marked variability of CRF in children with obesity, which was possible to quantify with the developed obesity specific CRF reference values. The mean value of absolute VO2 max (L/min) increased with age and relative VO2 max (mL/kg/min) decreased with age in both boys and girls. There was a negative secular trend in both sexes (P<.001). These are the first obesity specific reference values of CRF in children enabling clinical evaluation in childhood obesity treatment. Cardiorespiratory fitness in children with obesity has declined the last decades, indicating that also within this vulnerable group physical activity has gone down.

Secular trend of physical fitness indicators related to health in childrens

Introduction: The health-related physical fitness (HRPF) show an inverse association with several cardiovascular risk factors in young people, however, a few studies have investigate the changes of HRF indicators throughout a determined period. Objective: To check the secular trend of HRPF indicators in children of seven to 10 years old. Methods: were analyzed 1.136 subjects with seven to 10 years in three-time period (2002, 2005, 2010-2011). The HRPF tests were: sit-and-reach (SR), abdominal resistance (AB), 9 min walk/run test (9min) and the body adiposity by skinfold sum (?SF). The classification of the HRPF indicators were made by the Physical Best cut off point. The ANCOVA test (controlled by BMI, height, ?SF) compared the difference of the HRPF indicators amongst the three-time period. Results: The boys presented 6% of decrease in the flexibility between 2010 and 2002 period; no significance was found in the AB test; children of both sexes presented higher values in the 9min test on 2005 period. Conclusion: It was concluded that there was a negative secular trend for an HRPF, and gifts were the results in 2010 were compared as their peers (2002-2005) to an HRPF group, in both sexes, except for abdominal strength and endurance.

Microcephaly infant mortality in Brazil before zika outbreak.

We present temporal and spatial variation of deaths from microcephaly in children under 1 year of age is analyzed at regional, state, and municipal level in the pre-Zika period in Brazil. Data on births and deaths of infants with microcephaly was obtained from DATASUS from 1996 to 2013. Infant mortality rate from microcephaly (IMR-M) was estimated at Region, Federative Unit (UF), and Municipality level. Secular trend (ST) and risk of death variation were estimated using a Poisson regression model. Satscan software was used to obtain a statistic spatial scan for the Poisson model. IMR-M shows a non-significant negative ST in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions of Brazil. A greater IMR-M risk of death variation is found in the North and Northeast Regions. Most UFs in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions showed a negative ST, in contrast to what occurs in the UFs of the North and Northeast Regions showed a positive ST. Six high risk significant clusters were found: 3 in the North-Northeast and 3 in the South-SouthWest-Center-West. The North and Northeast Regions showed positive ST for IRM-M and higher death risk, which was not observed in the other regions. Cluster distribution for higher IMR-M and risk resembles the distribution of the microcephaly and Zika cases in the outbreak period.

Factors Associated With Bone Density Monitoring While on Antiosteoporosis Treatment in Routine Clinical Practice: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

The role for bone mineral density (BMD) monitoring while on antiosteoporosis therapy remains controversial. The current study used population-based registries to identify factors associated with BMD monitoring in women within 5 yr of receiving antiosteoporosis treatment vs treatment without monitoring in routine clinical practice. The analytical dataset consisted of women age 40 yr and older at baseline receiving antiosteoporosis therapy: 6877 with BMD monitoring (mean interval 3.2 yr) and 6747 without BMD monitoring. There was a significant negative secular trend in BMD monitoring during the study period (p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that parental hip fracture, glucocorticoid and aromatase inhibitor use, and lower baseline BMD were independently and positively associated with BMD monitoring. Individuals with increasing age, greater body mass index, smoking, rheumatoid arthritis, later calendar year, diabetes, rural residency, lower income, and greater comorbidity score were less likely to undergo monitoring. A shorter monitoring interval (<23 mo) was strongly associated with glucocorticoid and aromatase inhibitor use. In conclusion, our study identifies factors associated with BMD monitoring over 5 yr in patients receiving antiosteoporosis therapy.

Secular trends of birthweight in boys from 1950 to 2010

Birthweight is an indicator of fetal development and intrauterine conditions and is associated with future health outcomes. Secular birthweight trends prior to the 1970s are mostly unknown. Our aim was to explore secular birthweight trends in Swedish boys from 1950 to 2010. We have collected detailed growth data including birthweight from archived School Health Care records for children born in Gothenburg from 1946 and onwards and established a unique population-based cohort, the Body Mass Index Epidemiology Study (BEST). The birthweight cohort spans six decades (1950-2010) and includes 46,548 boys. The mean birthweight of the complete study cohort was 3580±562g. Linear regression analysis of the entire period revealed a minimal negative secular trend for birthweight (BETA=-0.4g/year; p<0.01). However, three distinct trends appeared during sub-periods: a decrease 1950-80, an increase 1980-2000 and another decrease 2000-2010. We demonstrate that birthweight in boys has undergone periodic decreases and subsequent increases, but the overall trend from the 1950s to the present is stable.

Six-monthly appointment spacing for clinical visits as a model for retention in HIV Care in Conakry-Guinea: a cohort study

BackgroundThe outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in 2014 led to massive dropouts in HIV care in Guinea. Meanwhile, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) was implementing a six-monthly appointment spacing approach adapted locally as Rendez-vous de Six Mois (R6M) with an objective to improve retention in care. We sought to evaluate this innovative model of ART delivery in circumstances where access to healthcare is restricted.MethodsA retrospective cohort study in 2014 of the outcome of a group of stable patients (viral load ≤1000 copies/μl) enrolled voluntarily in R6M compared with a group of stable patients continuing standard one to three monthly visits in Conakry. Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used to compare rates of attrition (deaths and defaulters) from care between the two groups. A linear regression analysis was used to describe the trend or pattern in the number of clinical visits over time.ResultsIncluded were 1957 adults of 15 years old and above of whom 1166 (59.6%) were enrolled in the R6M group and 791 (40.4%) in the standard care group. The proportion remaining in care at 18 months and beyond was 90% in the R6M group; significantly higher than the 75% observed in the control group (p < 0.0001). After adjusting for duration on ART and tuberculosis co-infection as covariates, the R6M strategy was associated with a 60% reduction in the rate of attrition from care compared with standard care (adjusted Hazard Ratio = 0.40, 95%CI: 0.27–0.59, p < 0.001). There was a negative secular trend in the number of monthly clinical visits for 24 months as the predicted caseload reduced on average by just below 50 visits per month (β = −48.6, R2 = 0.82, p < 0.0001).ConclusionR6M was likely to reduce staff workload and to mitigate attrition from ART care for stable patients in Conakry despite restricted access to healthcare caused by the devastating EVD on the health system in Guinea. R6M could be rolled out as the model of care for stable patients where and when feasible as a strategy likely to improve retention in HIV care.

Abstract 257: Estrogen receptor positive and negative breast cancer secular trends in Ireland (2004-2013)

Abstract Background: Estrogen receptor (ER) status in breast cancer is strongly associated with etiologic factors, prognosis and treatment response. Data suggest that population-based incidence rates of ER-positive (ER+) tumors are increasing and ER-negative (ER-) cancers have fallen over time in the United States (US), Denmark and Scotland. Whether these trends are consistent in other populations with different etiologic exposures and across ER±/HER2± subtypes is unknown. We, therefore, analyzed breast cancer secular trends in Ireland by ER expression; and for the first time, by joint expression of ER±/HER2±, a well-established clinical marker of uncertain etiological significance. Methods: This study included invasive breast cancers (n=24,845; 2004-2013) among women aged 20-84 years within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland (97% coverage). The general population at risk (n=10,401,986) was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office. Using a validated approach to account for missing ER/HER2-status, we assessed ER± and ER±/HER2± secular trends with age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Over the 10-year follow-up period, 19,264 ER+ and 4,161 ER- breast cancers were diagnosed (1,420 were ER-unknown). ASRs increased significantly for ER+ (EAPC: 2.20%/year (95%CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year)) and decreased significantly for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43%/year (95%CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year)). The ER-specific trends were qualitatively similar among three age groups (&amp;lt;50, 50-64 and ≥65 years). With further stratification by HER2± expression, ER+/HER2- cancers rose (EAPC: 2.87%/year (95%CI: 1.33, 4.44%/year)), ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat, while ER-/HER± cancers significantly declined. Conclusion: Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were similar to those previously observed in the US and Denmark. Further, trends for ER/HER2 followed those for ER, although rates were constant for ER+/HER+ tumors. The divergence of cancer incidence patterns by ER among independent populations over time could reflect comparable changes in risk factor exposures with dual or opposite effects for risk of ER+ and ER- cancers (e.g., obesity, age at first birth/parity). Additionally, although HER2 is a well-established clinical predictive and prognostic marker for breast cancer outcome, it did not appear to substantively impact breast cancer incidence trends. Citation Format: Maeve Mullooly, Jeanne Murphy, Gretchen L. Gierach, Brittny Davis, Paul Walsh, Sandra Deady, Thomas I. Barron, Mark E. Sherman, Philip S. Rosenberg, William F. Anderson. Estrogen receptor positive and negative breast cancer secular trends in Ireland (2004-2013) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 257. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-257