Microcephaly infant mortality in Brazil before zika outbreak.

Abstract

We present temporal and spatial variation of deaths from microcephaly in children under 1 year of age is analyzed at regional, state, and municipal level in the pre-Zika period in Brazil. Data on births and deaths of infants with microcephaly was obtained from DATASUS from 1996 to 2013. Infant mortality rate from microcephaly (IMR-M) was estimated at Region, Federative Unit (UF), and Municipality level. Secular trend (ST) and risk of death variation were estimated using a Poisson regression model. Satscan software was used to obtain a statistic spatial scan for the Poisson model. IMR-M shows a non-significant negative ST in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions of Brazil. A greater IMR-M risk of death variation is found in the North and Northeast Regions. Most UFs in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions showed a negative ST, in contrast to what occurs in the UFs of the North and Northeast Regions showed a positive ST. Six high risk significant clusters were found: 3 in the North-Northeast and 3 in the South-SouthWest-Center-West. The North and Northeast Regions showed positive ST for IRM-M and higher death risk, which was not observed in the other regions. Cluster distribution for higher IMR-M and risk resembles the distribution of the microcephaly and Zika cases in the outbreak period.