Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Research Articles

Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Haze is a serious issue in China with increasing concerns, and understanding the factors driving decadal-scale variations in haze occurrence is relevant for government policymaking. Using a comprehensive observational haze dataset, we demonstrate notable decadal fluctuations in the number of haze days (HD) during winter in central eastern China, showing a decline since the mid-1980s. The leading mode of the wintertime HD features an increasing trend for 1959–2012 in eastern China, highly correlated with China’s gross domestic product (GDP) that represents increasing trend of pollutant emissions, and to a lesser extent meteorological factors. The second mode shows decadal variations in central eastern China associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Observations and numerical simulations suggest that Mongolia High and corresponding descending motion tend to be enhanced (weakened) in central eastern China during the positive (negative) phase of PDO. With PDO shifting towards a negative phase, the weakened Mongolia High and ascending anomalies make the air unstable and conduce to the spread of pollutants, leading to the decline in the wintertime HD over central eastern China since the mid-1980s. Based on above physical mechanisms, a linear model based on PDO and GDP metrics provided a good fit to the observed HD.

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation.

Given the threats of climate change, understanding the relationship of climate with long-term population dynamics is critical for wildlife conservation. Previous studies have linked decadal climate oscillations to indices of juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), but without a clear understanding of mechanisms. Here, we explore the underlying processes that may explain these relationships. Using the eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, we generate hatch-year trajectories for loggerhead turtles emanating from Japan over six decades (1950-2010). We find that the proximity of the high-velocity Kuroshio Current to the primary nesting areas in southern Japan is remarkably stable and that hatchling dispersal to oceanic habitats itself does not vary on decadal timescales. However, we observe a shift in latitudes of trajectories, consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In a negative PDO phase, the Kuroshio Extension Current (KEC) is strong and acts as a physical barrier to the northward transport of neonates. As a result, hatch-year trajectories remain mostly below 35°N in the warm, unproductive region south of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). During a positive PDO phase, however, the KEC weakens facilitating the neonates to swim north of the TZCF into cooler and more productive waters. As a result, annual cohorts from negative PDO years may face a lack of resources, whereas cohorts from positive PDO years may find sufficient resources during their pivotal first year. These model outputs indicate that the ocean circulation dynamics, combined with navigational swimming behavior, may be a key factor in the observed decadal variability of sea turtle populations.

Extreme precipitation over the Crimean península

Based on daily precipitation data for 1951–2009 from 18 hydrometeorological stations all over the Crimean peninsula, a 58-year data series of extreme precipitation parameters (precipitation concentration, level of extreme precipitation and number of days with extreme precipitation) were calculated. Linear trends of calculated parameters are estimated in this paper. Manifestations of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) of the extreme precipitation changes were analyzed. The precipitation concentration is found to increase in the Crimean Mountains region in the winter season, but in the summer season the precipitation concentration is characterized by uniform distribution. Linear trends of the winter and summer precipitation concentration during the last 58 years are predominantly negative over Crimea. The maximum values of precipitation level in the winter season are typical for the Crimean Mountains region. In the summer season, values of precipitation change insignificantly. The number of days with extreme precipitation exhibits decreasing trends in the winter season over the territory of Crimea. In the summer season, the number of days with extreme precipitation in south-eastern part of Crimea has increasing trends. The negative PDO phase in the winter season was found to accompany increased precipitation concentration (up to 11%) all over Crimea and by decreased concentration (up to 4%) in the summer season in central, southern, and eastern regions of Crimea. The number of extreme precipitation days in the winter season is up to 30% higher in the negative PDO phase over the whole territory of Crimea, while in the summer it is up to 60% lower in the south-eastern part of peninsula.

Decadal Variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This study finds that the winter (December - February) decadal variability of northerly winds in the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) over the northern part of the East Asia Coast were influenced by forcing from the middle latitudes from the 1950s to 2000s and related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We propose that the decreased EAWM in recent decades is associated with the change in pressure gradient along the East Asia coast. This mechanism accounts for the change of westward sea-level pressure (SLP) gradient along the Northeast Asia coast, and is affected by the Aleutian Low location, which is associated with the PDO phases. As the Aleutian Low is influenced by the negative PDO phase and moves westward, the SLP gradient between the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low can increase and the northerly wind at 850 hPa will be enhanced. This change is associated with the increased EAWM near Sakhalin Island of Russia to Hokkaido of Japan.

PDO and ENSO modulations intensified decadal sea level variability in the tropical Pacific

AbstractAccording to long‐term sea level reconstruction and steric sea level data, regional sea levels in the tropical Pacific have oscillated between east and west on a decadal time scale over the past 60 years, but the oscillation has been intensified significantly in the last three decades. Using conditional composite analysis, we show that the recent intensification in sea level variability is caused by modulation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), i.e., an El Niño in a positive PDO or a La Niña in a negative PDO phase. Our analysis of meteorological fields indicates that atmospheric circulation associated with the changes in ENSO‐PDO phase relationship plays a positive role in enhancing the decadal sea level oscillation. The intensified sea level oscillation, when superimposed on the global trend of sea level rise, will have profound implications for coastal communities, therefore, the combined effect of PDO and ENSO should be taken into account in the decadal sea level prediction in the tropical Pacific.

Historical reconstruction of organic carbon inputs to the East China Sea inner shelf: Implications for anthropogenic activities and regional climate variability

A gravity core collected from the East China Sea (ECS) inner shelf was analyzed for elemental and stable isotopic composition, lignin-phenols, and sedimentary pigments to investigate changes of organic carbon (OC) inputs during the past two centuries. In particular, we examined the linkages between terrestrial and marine OC inputs with climate variability and anthropogenic activities. The decrease of terrestrial OC contribution (from 41% to 28%) and increasing diagenetic indices of lignin-phenols (P/(S + V): from 0.12 to 0.22; 3,5-Bd/V: from 0.03 to 0.09) after the 1970s were possibly attributed to intensified deforestation, dam construction, and channel erosion. Lignin content (Λ8) ranged from 0.35 mg/100 mg OC to 6.92 mg/100 mg OC, with lower values corresponding to the worst flooding events in the Changjiang watershed and weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), while higher Λ8 was more correlated to the strengthening of EAWM. This indicates that terrestrial inputs to Zhe-Min Coast are different from those in Changjiang Estuary during flooding events and strongly linked with regional climate variability. The total contents of sedimentary chloropigments (i.e. pheophorbide-a, pheophytin-a, pyropheophytin-a, sterol chlorin esters, and carotenol chlorin esters) ranged from 663.4 to 74.9 nmol g−1 OC, and decreased exponentially downwards. Sedimentary chloropigments that were used to document historical change of phytoplankton biomass were decoupled with historical changes of Changjiang riverine nutrient inputs but corresponded well to the fluctuation of regional climate variability. Higher phytoplankton biomasses usually were observed during positive phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and/or warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and lower algal biomass usually corresponded to the negative phase of PDO and/or cold ENSO events.

Connection between weak stratospheric vortex events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

We investigate the possible impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the occurrence of weak stratospheric polar vortex (WSV) events in the Northern Hemisphere winter. WSV events, which are defined when polar-cap geopotential height anomalies at 50 hPa fall below the 10th percentile in winter, are observed more frequently during positive PDO phases than during negative PDO phases. Additionally, tropospheric wave forcings that drive WSV events are remarkably different between the two phases of the PDO. During the positive PDO phase, the vertical propagation of wavenumber-one waves plays a predominant role with a rather minor contribution of wavenumber-two waves. This contrasts with the negative PDO phase when the WSV events are primarily caused by wavenumber-two waves. This difference is partly related to the PDO-induced tropospheric circulation anomalies over the North Pacific whose zonal wavenumber-one component constructively (destructively) interferes with climatological planetary-scale waves during positive (negative) PDO winters. The predominant wavenumber-two wave forcings during the negative PDO phase are likely related to the enhanced tropospheric eddy activity over Alaska that results from the poleward shift of the Pacific jet in response to the negative PDO.

A Decadal-Scale Teleconnection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Subtropical Eastern Australian Rainfall

Abstract The time series of twentieth-century subtropical eastern Australian rainfall (SEAR) shows evident fluctuations over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Using observations from the period 1900–2013, it was found that SEAR is connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over decadal time scales, with the NAO leading by around 15 yr. The physical mechanism underlying this relationship was investigated. The NAO can have a delayed impact on sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the subpolar Southern Ocean (SO), and these SST changes could in turn contribute to the decadal variability in SEAR through their impacts on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. This observed lead of the NAO relative to SO SST and the interhemispheric SST seesaw mechanism are reasonably reproduced in a long-term control simulation of an ocean–atmosphere coupled model. The NAO exerts a delayed effect on the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation that further induces seesaw SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic and SO. With evidence that the NAO precedes SEAR decadal variability via a delayed SO bridge, a linear model for SEAR decadal variability was developed by combination of the NAO and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The observed SEAR decadal variability is considerably well simulated by the linear model, and the relationship between the simulation and observation is stable. SEAR over the coming decade may increase slightly, because of the recent NAO weakening and the return of negative PDO phase.

Linkage between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the low frequency variability of the Pacific Subtropical Cell

AbstractThe decadal variability of Pacific Subtropical Cell (STC) and its linkages with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are investigated in the present study based on a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA 2.2.4). It is found that, on decadal time scales, the western boundary and interior pycnocline transports are anticorrelated and the variation of the interior component is more significant, which is consistent with previous studies. The decadal variability of STC in the Northern Hemisphere is found to be strongly associated with PDO. Associated with a positive (negative) phase of PDO, the relaxation (acceleration) of the northeast trades slows down (spins up) the STC within a few years through baroclinic adjustment in conjunction with the subduction of the cold (warm) mixed‐layer anomalies in the extratropics. The cold (warm) water is then injected into the thermocline and advected further southwestward to the tropics along the isopycnal surfaces, leading to the slowdown (spin‐up) of STC due to zonal pressure gradient change at low latitude. Along with the STC weakening (strengthening), a significant warming (cold) anomaly appears in the tropics and it is advected to the midlatitude by the Kuroshio and North Pacific currents, thus feeding back to the atmosphere over the North Pacific. In contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, it is found the STC in the south only passively responds to the PDO. The mechanism found here highlights the role of the STC advection of extratropical anomalies to the tropics and horizontal gyre advection of the tropical anomalies to the extratropics in decadal variability of the STC and PDO.

The climate of Myanmar: evidence for effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

ABSTRACTWe show evidence for the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on Myanmar's monsoonal hydroclimate using both instrumental and 20th century reanalysis data, and a tree‐ring width chronology from Myanmar's central Dry Zone. The ‘regime shifts’ identified in the instrumental PDO for the past century are clearly evident in the Myanmar teak. The teak record and PDO index correlate most significantly and positively during December–May, at r = 0.41 (0.002, n = 109). We generated composite climate anomalies for southern Asia and adjacent ocean areas during negative and positive PDO phases and above/below average teak growth for the May–September wet monsoon season. They show that negative (positive) PDO phases correspond to dry (wet) conditions, due to reduced (enhanced) moisture flux into central Myanmar. Multitaper Method (MTM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) spectral analyses reveal considerable multidecadal variability over the past several centuries of the teak chronology, consistent with the PDO.

Multidecadal Variability of North China Aridity and Its Relationship to PDO during 1900–2010

Abstract North China has undergone a severe drying trend since the 1950s, but whether this trend is natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unknown due to the short data length. This study extends the analysis of dry–wet changes in north China to 1900–2010 on the basis of self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to detect multidecadal variability. A transition from significant wetting to significant drying is detected around 1959/60. Approximately 70% of the drying trend during 1960–90 originates from 50–70-yr multidecadal variability related to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase changes. The PDSI in north China is significantly negatively correlated with the PDO index, particularly at the 50–70-yr time scale, and is also stable during 1900–2010. Composite differences between two positive PDO phases (1922–45 and 1977–2002) and one negative PDO phase (1946–76) for summer exhibit an anomalous Pacific–Japan/East Asian–Pacific patternlike teleconnection, which may develop locally in response to the PDO-associated warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and meridionally extends from the tropical western Pacific to north China along the East Asian coast. North China is dominated by an anomalous high pressure system at mid–low levels and an anticyclone at 850 hPa, which are favorable for dry conditions. In addition, a weakened land–sea thermal contrast in East Asia from a negative to a positive PDO phase also plays a role in the dry conditions in north China by weakening the East Asian summer monsoon.

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.

Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the interannual variability of early summer rainfall over south China

AbstractThis study investigates the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the predictability of interannual early summer south China rainfall (SCR) using high‐quality station rainfall data. Of particular interest is the difference in impact between negative and positive phases of the PDO on the predictability of interannual early summer SCR. A clear difference in the correlation between the interannual early summer SCR and the preceding sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean appears in negative and positive phases of the PDO. In the negative PDO phase, the correlation between interannual early summer SCR and SST is dominated by a pattern with significant negative correlations in the subtropical western North Pacific and southeast Pacific and significant positive correlations in the tropical central Pacific. However, in the positive PDO phase, significant positive correlations are observed in the tropical eastern Pacific. It is found that, for each PDO phase, the preceding SST anomalies in some regions in the Pacific may act as predictors of the interannual early summer SCR. As such, a two‐regime regression model for the relationship between interannual early summer SCR and preceding SST anomalies is established based on the negative and positive PDO phases using respective multiple linear regression models. Results suggest that the interannual early SCR is more predictable in PDO positive phase than in negative phase. It offers a support for the argument that a segmented statistical forecasting approach associated with the decadal modulation effect of the coupled ocean atmospheric mode should be adopted to forecast the early summer SCR.

Changes in the spatial structure of strong and moderate El Niño events under global warming

In this study, we examine how the spatial structures of strong and moderate El Niño events have changed due to global warming using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) based on a historical run and a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 run. The centre of the maximum anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the moderate El Niño has shifted significantly westward from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run; however, this is not seen with the strong El Niño events. Further analysis indicates that the centre of the maximum anomalous SST in the moderate El Niño with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase shifted westward around the international dateline from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run. This is in contrast to the moderate El Niño, which shows a positive PDO phase. We also briefly discuss a possible mechanism on the change in the spatial structure of moderate El Niño with a negative phase of PDO from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run.

Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon

Using long-term observational data and numerical model experiments, the combined effect of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon is examined. In the observations, it is found that when the ENSO and PDO are in-phase combinations (i.e., El Nino/positive PDO phase and La Nina/negative PDO phase), a negative relationship between ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon is significantly intensified. In other words, when El Nino (La Nina) occurs with positive (negative) PDO phase, anomalous warm (cold) temperatures are dominant over the East Asian winter continent. On the other hand, there are no significant temperature anomalies when the ENSO and PDO are out-of-phase combinations (i.e., El Nino/negative PDO phase and La Nina/positive PDO phase). Further analyses indicate that the anticyclone over the western North Pacific including the East Asian marginal seas plays an essential role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon under the changes of ENSO–PDO phase relationship. Long-lasting high pressure and warm sea surface temperature anomalies during the late fall/winter and following spring over the western North Pacific, which appear as the El Nino occurs with positive PDO phase, can lead to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon by transporting warm and wet conditions into the East Asian continent through the southerly wind anomalies along the western flank of the anomalous high pressure, and vice versa as the La Nina occurs with negative PDO phase. In contrast, the anomalous high pressure over the western North Pacific does not show a prominent change under the out-of-phase combinations of ENSO and PDO. Numerical model experiments confirm the observational results, accompanying dominant warm temperature anomalies over East Asia via strong anticyclonic circulation anomalies near the Philippine Sea as the El Nino occurs with positive PDO phase, whereas such warming is weakened as the El Nino occurs with negative PDO phase. This result supports the argument that the changes in the East Asian winter monsoon intensity with ENSO are largely affected by the strength of the anticyclone over the western North Pacific, which significantly changes according to the ENSO–PDO phase relationship.

Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

Abstract. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate.

Roles of ENSO and PDO in the Link of the East Asian Winter Monsoon to the following Summer Monsoon

Abstract The present study investigates the roles of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the following East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The variability of the EAWM is divided into an ENSO-related part named EAWMEN and an ENSO-unrelated part named EAWMres. Corresponding to a weak EAWMEN, an anomalous low-level anticyclone forms over the western North Pacific (WNP) and persists from winter to the following summer. This anticyclone enhances southerlies over the coast of East Asia in summer. Hence, a weak EAWMEN tends to be followed by a strong EASM and vice versa. As such, a link is established between the EAWMEN and the EASM. The persistence of this WNP anticyclone may be mainly attributed to the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the ENSO-related EAWM part in the tropical Indian Ocean and the extratropical North Pacific. In contrast, corresponding to a weak EAWMres, the anomalous WNP anticyclone is only seen in winter, and there is no obvious relationship between the EAWMres and the following EASM. Therefore, the observed EAWM–EASM relationship is dominated by the winter monsoon variability associated with ENSO. It is found that the EAWMEN–EASM relationship is modulated by the PDO. There tends to be a much stronger EASM after a weak EAWMEN during the positive PDO phases than during the negative PDO phases.

Precipitation in west and northwestern Iran associated to PDO and ENSO signals and relevance to drought

The temporal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and precipitation in the west and northwestern regions of Iran is explored through the use of multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA), using monthly and seasonal precipitation data (in the form of Standard Precipitation Index, SPI), and the bivariate ENSO time series (BEST) and PDO from 1957 to 2008. Three SPI time aggregations: annual (from October to September), cold (from October to April) and warm (from May to September) seasons were chosen. To assess spatial and temporal patterns of droughts, a principal component analysis (PCA) and MSSA were applied to the SPI series. MSSA shows significant oscillations (with variance explained between 20 and 50%) around four and seven years among the SPI-PDO and SPI-BEST channels. The results show an in-phase influence of ENSO and PDO on precipitation during the cold season, contrasting the off-phase relationship during the warm season. An increased variability in precipitation regime, noticeable after 1990, was also detected in the reconstructions. These results are relevant in determining the likelihood of droughts in this part of Iran (mainly due to critically dry cold seasons during negative PDO and ENSO phases), which may be helpful for water management and agriculture planning in the region.

Recent massive coral mortality events in the South China Sea: Was global warming and ENSO variability responsible?

The key to predicting the possible response(s) of coral reefs to hypothesized future global warming is the knowledge of their response(s) to previous extreme climatic events. We obtained 80 high-precision U/Th ages for 78 dead massive Porites colonies from the Nansha Islands, South China Sea, with an aim to understand the long-term history, frequency, timing and causes of local coral mortality. Our results reveal a number of significant episodes of coral mortality since 1860AD, with an apparent increase in frequency and severity since 1930AD, and more recently since 1970, especially when only synchronized mortality events found to have occurred on both reefs were compared. The synchronized mortality events centered around 1865–1875, 1895–1900, 1910–1920, 1930–1945, 1970–1985 and 1990–2005AD, which imply regional common causes, were found to correlate well with the warm phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (i.e. El Niño years, e.g. some recent ones during 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1991–1994, 1997–1998AD) on inter-annual time scale, as well as with positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or its sharp phase transitions on inter-decadal time scale. Synchronized coral mortality was absent during prolonged negative PDO phases, e.g. during 1950–1970AD. Overall, the data shows that immediately before, and at the time of, modern local ecological monitoring, the region's coral communities had already experienced several recent episodes of stress. The increased frequency distribution of mortality ages since 1930AD and more recently since 1970AD appears to coincide with progressively warmer sea-surface temperatures, both regionally and globally. Our data highlight the vulnerability of local coral communities in the face of present and predicted future warming.

Unstable climate−growth relations for white spruce in southwest Yukon, Canada

We used dendroclimatology to quantify inter-annual to multi-decadal climatic variation effects on white spruce radial growth in southwest Yukon, Canada. Local climate is dry and cold, such that tree growth was primarily moisture- rather than temperature-limited, although the mechanisms varied temporally. During the 20th century, significant increases in precipitation countered warming temperatures, so that heat−moisture indices have not changed significantly. Directional climatic change, superimposed on variation due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), resulted in unstable climate−growth relations. Prior to 1977, ring widths were positively correlated with previous growing season precipitation and warm temperatures had a negative impact, exacerbating moisture limitations in dry years especially during the cool, dry negative PDO phase (1946−1976). After 1977, correlations with previous growing season precipitation became negative and correlations with previous fall and winter precipitation and current year July and August temperatures became positive, although not statistically significant. These changes suggest precipitation and temperature increases over recent decades benefitted white spruce growth. Climate projections for this region include further temperature and precipitation increases, which may promote white spruce growth depending on the seasonality and interactions between temperature and precipitation. This study demonstrated the complexity of potential responses of white spruce to climate variation and change.