Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Research Articles

Interdecadal shifts of ENSO influences on Spring Central Asian precipitation

Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Bering Sea Ice Loss on North American Temperature

AbstractThe cold surges have frequently attacked North America (NA) in recent decades, which has been tied to the diminished sea‐ice over the Bering Sea. However, we find that the contribution of sea‐ice loss to NA winter coldness is state‐dependent on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. Using observations and CAM6 model simulations, we find that the phase regulates the atmospheric response to Bering ice loss. During the negative PDO phase (PDO−), there is an apparent eastward‐propagating wave train, accompanied by a strengthened Alaskan ridge and NA cold high, resulting in a robust cold over Central NA. Meanwhile, enhanced upward‐propagating planetary waves weaken the stratospheric polar vortex over the Pacific‐NA regions. During the positive phase (PDO+), the NA temperature response to Bering ice loss is quite weak or even warm. We speculate that more NA cold extremes will appear as the PDO− continues and less as the PDO− shifts to PDO+.

Thermal fronts in coastal waters regulate phytoplankton blooms via acting as barriers: A case study from western Guangdong, China

Oceanic fronts play an important role in regulating the distributions of phytoplankton and are subject to climate change. However, the relationship between climate change, oceanic fronts, and coastal phytoplankton blooms requires clarification. Using long-term satellite data, the seasonal, interannual, and decadal variations of the thermal fronts were examined, along with their effects on the distribution of phytoplankton in western Guangdong. Thermal fronts between the cold western Guangdong coastal current waters and the warm South China Sea (SCS) waters were found along the coast of western Guangdong during winter due to northeast winter monsoon. At decadal timescales, an increase (decrease) in frontal activities occurred during the negative (positive) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. This pattern suggests that the positive (negative) PDO activity decreases (increases) sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface temperature in the SCS, thereby weakens (enhances) frontal activities along the coast. Accordingly, extensions and positive anomalies (> 1.5 mg/m3) in chlorophyll-a (Chl a) were observed during the positive PDO phase, whereas Chl a was concentrated in the nearshore areas during the negative PDO phase. These processes are primarily related to the barrier effects of enhanced thermal fronts and positive SLA on offshore materials transport during the negative PDO period. This study highlights the need to incorporate PDO activity into phytoplankton production in coastal oceans.

Decadal Modulation of the Relationship Between Tropical Southern Atlantic SST and Subsequent ENSO by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

AbstractThis study identifies the relationship between tropical southern Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and focuses on how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates this relationship. Results suggest a significant but non‐stationary interannual TSA‐ENSO relationship which undergoes a significant decadal shift. A strong TSA‐ENSO relationship is observed during the positive PDO phase, while this relationship is weak during the negative PDO phase. Two processes, involving the anomalous Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) and the intensity of air‐sea interactions over the Pacific, are proposed for this decadal shift. During the positive PDO phase, the weak and variable PWC and strong air‐sea interaction facilitate the development of SSTA in the tropical Pacific triggered by TSA SSTA, resulting in a strong TSA‐ENSO relationship and vice versa. These findings emphasize the important role of the modulation of PDO on the TSA‐ENSO relationship.

A two-centennial perspective on spatially compounding hydroclimate events in arid and semi-arid north China

Spatially compounding hydroclimate events, means the droughts or pluvials occurring concurrently in different areas, are more damaging to society than those occurring locally. However, the short length of instrumental climate data hampers our understanding of the variability and driving mechanism of spatially compounding hydroclimate events in the past. Here, six tree-ring chronologies along a latitudinal gradient from the arid and semi-arid north China were used to analyze the variation of spatially compounding hydroclimate events over the past two centuries (1821–2017 CE). The results show that the frequency of spatially compounding droughts has increased, while that of spatially compounding pluvials has decreased since 1950s. Composite analysis with sea surface temperature indicated that the occurrence of spatially compounding hydroclimate events in the study area was related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the prior winter. Furthermore, we found the phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the influence of ENSO on spatially compounding hydroclimate events. Compounding drought is most common during El Niño and positive phase of PDO, while compounding pluvials is most common during La Niña and negative phase of PDO. These findings offer a reference for the early warning of drought risk and may benefit disaster prediction and mitigation for the north China.

Dynamic controls of the interannual and interdecadal variations of the freezing level height over the Tibetan Plateau

The variation of freezing level height (FLH) is significantly indicated the cryosphere change under global warming. In this study, the FLH during boreal summer in the TP regions is investigated, with the leading mode of a mono-sign pattern both on interannual and interdecadal timescales. The interannual variation of the summer FLH is dominantly coupled with the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the AO is in positive phase, positive geopotential height anomalies are prolonged in the mid-latitude and negative anomalies are present over the Arctic regions. Meanwhile, the westerly shifts northward and strengthened, preventing the cold air propagating southward. These conditions are beneficial for the surface and free-air temperature increasing and thus enhance the FLH over the TP. On the interdecadal timescale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has mainly contributed to the variation of summer FLH. In the negative PDO phase, the warming sea surface temperature anomalies appear in the North Pacific, which could drive wave trains propagating eastward and induce high pressure around the northern TP. With the anomalous anticyclone from TP to western North Pacific, the southeasterly wind is prevalent in the TP. Consequently, the northern TP becomes warming remarkably and leads to the rising of FLH. This study provides an insight perspective for understanding the changes of FLH over the TP, which also suggests the influence on the cryosphere processes at multi-timescale variations.

Multidecadal variability of dust activity in Gobi desert and its connection with the pacific decadal oscillation

The multidecadal changes of dust column mass density (DCMD) in Gobi desert (GD) in spring are investigated based on the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 dataset. In addition, the possible effects of the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing on the multidecadal changes are analyzed. Results show that the dust aerosol over GD experienced a decadal change in 1999 with about 30% higher dust loading during 2000–2013 in comparison to that during 1987–1999. Further analysis indicates that the decadal change of dust aerosol over GD is attributed to the more strengthened northwesterly wind anomaly extending from lower to middle troposphere and the anticyclonic anomaly in middle troposphere over GD during the latter epoch, which is favorable to the increase of local dust activities. Furthermore, the decadal change of DCMD in GD is associated with the switch of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. From 2000 to 2013, the PDO was in the negative phase, which induced to a positive potential height anomaly and northwesterly wind anomalies in the middle troposphere over GD. The dry and cold air brought by the anomalous northwesterly wind associated with the negative PDO phase reduces the relative humidity in the lower troposphere further amplify the effect of strengthened wind speed, being favorable for the increase of local dust loading and the resultant increase of DCMD there.

Impacts of Tibetan Plateau sensible heat and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on precipitation over South China under the background of the PDO

This study aims to investigate the impacts of the spring sensible heat (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding wintertime on midsummer (July–August) precipitation over South China under the different Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phases. More specifically, eight classifications are adopted at the demarcation point around 1996 when the spring SH over the TP and the midsummer precipitation in South China occurred as well as the PDO phase transition, including positive and negative SHs and ENSOs under a positive PDO phase (1979–1996) and a negative PDO phase (1997–2019), respectively, based on the Niño-3 index and the spring SH calculated from 48 stations over the central and eastern parts of the TP. The results show that both the spring SH and the ENSO in preceding wintertime have a significant impact on the midsummer precipitation over South China; that is, when the two factors are in their respective positive (negative) phase, the midsummer precipitation in South China is generally less (more). Importantly, the phase change of background field PDO can significantly enhance the effect of the SH and the ENSO on summer precipitation over South China. Moreover, compared with the preceding wintertime ENSO, the spring SH over the TP contributes more to the midsummer precipitation in South China based on analyses of their independent and synergistic effects. The main mechanism responsible for the anomalous midsummer precipitation over South China are the combined effects of the South Asian high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which are controlled by the spring SH anomaly over the TP and the ENSO, respectively. Deep understanding of the dominant factors of the midsummer precipitation over South China will help understand the local climate change and reduce the losses caused by drought and flood disasters.

Influence of large-scale teleconnections on annual and seasonal floods in Godavari and Narmada River basins

AbstractIndian summer monsoon rainfall is strongly influenced by large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations including Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Researchers have shown that the negative phase of PDO or La Niña episodes of ENSO produce higher magnitude rainfall and hence relatively wetter years. So, it is imperative to have better knowledge of flood characteristics in the Indian watersheds for optimal planning and design of various infrastructure, and for optimal planning and management of reservoir operations. Traditionally, such information is estimated using flood frequency analysis (FFA), however the adequacy of traditionally accepted assumption that the annual peak flows are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) is questioned globally. This study evaluates the adequacy of this assumption in Godavari and Narmada River basins and assesses the influence of PDO, ENSO and IOD on flood characteristics. The results indicate that the flood characteristics at the majority of gauges are significantly influenced by these oscillations, higher magnitude floods are associated with negative episodes. A very few gauges are inversely related to these teleconnections, although statistically not significant. Overall, the signal of all the three teleconnections is found in the annual and seasonal floods in the majority of gauging stations.

ENSO and PDO Effect on Stratospheric Dynamics in Isca Numerical Experiments

The deterministic forecast of the stratospheric polar vortex intensity (iSPV) is limited by 2 weeks, but it can be probabilistically predicted for a longer period due to low-frequency components of the climate system, such as large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). For a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the effect of the large-scale Pacific SSTAs on the iSPV anomalies formation, idealized model experiments were carried out using the Isca platform. There is no statistically significant response of the SPV dynamics to the SSTAs corresponding to PDO phases, but they noticeably correct the effect of ENSO modes when added to it. The effect of the El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) events with neutral PDO phases on the iSPV is asymmetric; in the “single” EN experiment the vortex is 40% weaker relative to the control values, and, in the “single” LN, the SPV is weakened by no more than 20%. When EN accompanied with the positive PDO phase, iSPV is reduced by 58%. When the negative PDO phase is added, the EN effect is significantly weakened. The LN effect is weakened by both positive and negative PDO phases.

Stage-dependent influence of PDO on interdecadal summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China

Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has been regarded as one of the most important interdecadal factors to the interdecadal summer precipitation in eastern China, which, however, cannot keep a consistent pattern during the same positive or negative PDO phase. Because sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies vary along with PDO evolvement, the PDO impacts are investigated in terms of developing and decaying stages of its positive and negative phases, respectively. It is found that the SST cooling in mid-latitude North Pacific and SST warming in off-equator central-eastern Pacific are generally intensified from the developing stage to the decaying stage for positive PDO phase, and vice versa. Particularly, during the decaying stage of positive (negative) PDO phase, the enhanced SST warming (cooling) in northeastern tropical Pacific triggers a stronger (weaker) large-scale Walker circulation and suppresses (enhances) the convective activities in western tropical Pacific, which favors a meridional wave train like East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia. Meanwhile, the westward extended SST cooling (warming) in mid-latitude North Pacific together with the SST warming (cooling) to its south significantly increases (decreases) the meridional SST gradient and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity, conductive to the strengthened (weakened) and southward (northward) shifted East Asian subtropical westerly jet as well as an equivalent barotropic “cold trough” in western North Pacific. Because of such tropical and extratropical dynamical processes, a meridional tripole pattern of precipitation anomalies occurs in eastern China which dominates the PDO impact in the same phase and distinctly different from the dipole pattern during the developing stage.

Lagged effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal variation in global land precipitation

<p>The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, modulates the global temperature and precipitation. While previous studies have shown a negative relationship between the global precipitation and the PDO, the time-delayed feature of this relationship remains underexplored. Here we investigate the lagged effect of the decadal variations in the PDO on the global land precipitation using cross-correlation at multiple scales. We find that there is a delayed response of precipitation to the PDO, with the regional correlation peaking at a certain delay and gradually decreasing with increasing lag time. We note the asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative PDO phases on precipitation. Seasonal analysis reveals that the PDO is related to land precipitation during the subsequent season relative to the rest of the year, with the highest correlation occurring in the boreal winter. The delay in response is likely due to the constant SST forcing of the PDO to the atmospheric circulation. This study highlights the lag duration of the PDO�Cprecipitation relationship, potentially enriching our understanding of this relationship and enhancing climate predictions on decadal timescales.</p>

The modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon relationship over the past half-millennium

Monsoon precipitation affects natural and social systems in East Asia, one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Monsoon precipitation variability is strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and may be related to the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, a collective understanding of the long-term PDO-ENSO-monsoon relationship remains limited because related studies are almost exclusively based on short instrumental records. Although paleoclimate proxies for PDO and ENSO are currently available, there is a lack of high-quality proxies for East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation. Moreover, the strengthening of the ENSO-EASM relationship since the 1970s has raised the question of anthropogenic impact. Reconstructing EASM precipitation is thus crucial to understanding its variability under natural and anthropogenic forcings. In this study, we addressed these challenges using tree ring oxygen isotopes of red cypress (Chamaecyparis formosensis Matsum), a long-lived endemic tree species in Taiwan. We developed an annual-resolved and well-validated EASM precipitation proxy from 1533 CE to 2011 which explained 49 % of the variance in instrumental precipitation. In comparison with multiple paleoclimate proxies, we revealed that PDO persistently modulated the ENSO-EASM relationship over the past half-millennium. The ENSO-EASM relationship was enhanced during the positive PDO phases and dynamically weakened during the negative PDO phases, notably in the early-17th, 18th, and early to mid-20th centuries. The strengthened relationship since the 1970s concurred with an unusually high PDO and ENSO and fell within its natural variability. Nevertheless, as the amplitude of the PDO is predicted to weaken under warming, the modulation effects may become less predictable.

Variations in Phytoplankton Primary Production Driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the East/Japan Sea

AbstractThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime is a major factor not only for the physical properties of the ocean but also for fishery and water resources. However, only a few studies have examined the impact of the PDO on the marine ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea. Therefore, in this study, the relationship between PDO and primary production (PP), and subsequent effects on the marine ecosystem were investigated in the East/Japan Sea using satellite data sets. PDO index showed a negative relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) and the contribution of the small phytoplankton to the total PP during the study period, whereas the mixed layer depth (MLD) and the PP showed a positive relationship with PDO index. The shallower MLD during the negative PDO phase indicates that vertical mixing may be weakened due to the stronger stratification caused by the higher SST than observed during the positive PDO phase. Consequently, we hypothesized that weakened vertical mixing may reduce nutrient supply to the euphotic layer, providing small‐sized phytoplankton favored environmental conditions during the negative PDO. It is noteworthy that PDO‐induced shoaling of the MLD was mainly observed in winter, which may influence the annual PP of the following year. This study shows that the annual PP in the East/Japan Sea can be largely affected through interactions between SST, MLD and subsequent changes in nutrient regime according to the PDO regime, which subsequently affects potential fishery resources in the East/Japan Sea.

Decadal change of spring dust activity in western Iran and its mechanism

Western Iran is an important dust source region in Middle East, with strong dust activities occurring in springtime. Based on a three-hourly meteorological station data, remarkable decadal change of dust frequency in the spring season has been found in the west and southwest of Iran, with less dust activities during 1992–2005 (hereafter as “P1”) and more frequent dust activities occurring during 2006–2015 (hereafter as “P2”). The decadal change signal in dust activities is closely associated with the corresponding decadal difference in precipitation and atmospheric moisture transportation in the region. Compared with P1 period during 1992–2005, anomalous moisture divergence over the center of Middle East can be found in P2 period during 2006–2015, suggesting less moisture transport to the western Iran from the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf, hence there is relatively less precipitation and dry soil moisture over the main dust source regions in the study region, which is favorable for more frequent dust emissions in P2 period. Meanwhile, westerly anomaly in P2 period can also be found in western Iran and upstream regions, such as Iraq and Syria, which is favorable for more dust transport to western Iran from upstream dust source region in Middle East. Furthermore, negative SST anomalies in central and western North Pacific and positive SST anomalies in the eastern North Pacific can be found in P1 period, which is corresponding to positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Conversely, a negative phase of PDO can be found during P2 period. This suggests that PDO is the key influential factor for the decadal change of spring dust activities in western Iran.

ENSO effect on hydroclimate changes in southeastern China over the past two millennia

Meteorological observations indicate that both natural and anthropogenic forcing contribute to regional drought/flood in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain. However, spatiotemporal rainfall pattern and its dynamics during natural climatic variability remains unclear. Here we reconstruct a ∼3 year-resolution EASM precipitation record over the past two millennia, based on 13 230Th dates and 600 δ18O in a stalagmite from Songya Cave, southeastern China. The δ18O sequence shows a long-term decreasing trend, indicating an increasing monsoon precipitation over the past two millennia. A series of centennial-scale fluctuations are superimposed on the long-term trend, with a wetter Little Ice Age than the Medieval Warm Period. The long-term trend and centennial-scale oscillations in EASM rainfall are broadly related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variations, with an increased (decreased) EASM rainfall corresponding to El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions and positive (negative) phase of PDO. Comparison of δ18O records from Songya and Wanxiang Cave shows an anti-phased spatial rainfall pattern between southeastern and northwestern China. This spatiotemporal rainfall pattern, consistent with the modern observations, is possibly regulated by the ENSO, through changes in the location and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH).

Synergistic Effects of PDO and IOD on Water Vapor Transport in the Preflood Season over South China

It is urgent to improve the prediction accuracy of precipitation in the preflood season (PFS) over South China (SC) under the background of global warming, and thus the research of water vapor conditions is the key. For the period of 1960–2012, using the daily precipitation data from 60 meteorology stations in SC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the synergistic effect of PDO (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) &IOD (the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode) on water vapor transport process to frontal/monsoon precipitation is revealed, based on the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT_4.9). For the frontal precipitation, the positive PDO phase (PDO+) compared with the negative PDO phase (PDO−), there is more water vapor over the West Pacific (WP), the northern South China Sea (SCS), and the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Water vapor for frontal precipitation mainly comes from WP and SCS. When PDO and IOD are in phase resonance, the water vapor transport tracks from the SCS, WP are shorter and westward, so more water vapor is transported to SC, the precipitation efficiency of water vapor to PFS precipitation is higher too. For the summer monsoon precipitation, the tropical Indian Ocean (IO)-BOB is rich in water vapor, especially for PDO−& IOD+. The main water vapor transport tracks are the cross-equatorial flows in the IO, BOB and SCS. The precipitation efficiency of water vapor from the IO-BOB is higher for the positive IOD phase (IOD+) than that for the negative IOD phase (IOD−); however, the precipitation efficiency of water vapor from SCS is higher for the IOD− than that for IOD+. Compared with frontal precipitation, the strong westerly anomaly in the northern IO increases the water vapor transport from the north IO, BOB to SC during monsoon precipitation. For the PDO+&IOD+, the stronger Indian Low and cyclonic anomaly in the WP increases the water vapor transported from the IO-BOB to SC, improving the precipitation efficiency of water vapor. Understanding the synergistic effect of the PDO and IOD on water vapor transport will help to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction, and reduce the negative impact of drought and flood disasters.

Interdecadal Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Relationship Between Spring Arctic Oscillation and the Following Winter ENSO

Previous studies indicated that Arctic Oscillation (AO) in boreal spring is an important extratropical trigger for the outbreak of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the succedent winter. This study reveals that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a strong modulation on the linkage between the spring AO and the following winter ENSO. Particularly, impact of the spring AO on the succedent winter ENSO is strong during positive PDO phase (+PDO). By contrast, the spring AO-winter ENSO connection is weak during negative PDO phase (−PDO). During +PDO, positive spring AO induces a marked anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific via wave-mean flow interaction. The subtropical cyclonic anomaly leads to sea surface temperature (SST) warming and enhanced atmospheric heating there, which could further propagate southward to the tropical central Pacific via wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism and, thus, impact the following winter El Niño via the tropical process. During −PDO, the spring AO-generated SST, the atmospheric circulation, and the heating anomalies over the North Pacific are much weaker. As such, spring AO has weak impacts on the winter ENSO. The spring climatological storm track is stronger during +PDO than −PDO years due to an increase in the mean meridional temperature gradient over the North Pacific. Stronger storm track intensity during +PDO leads to stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedback to the mean flow, which results in stronger AO-related SST and atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific and, thus, the stronger impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO.

Increasing activity of tropical cyclones in East Asia during the mature boreal autumn linked to long-term climate variability

In recent years, the East Asian (EA) region experienced escalated cost of damages associated with tropical cyclones (TC) during the mature boreal autumn (i.e., September−October). Questions arise whether such increased TC-associated cost of damages are indicative of increasing activity of TCs in EA, particularly during the mature boreal autumn. Here we show evidence of significantly increasing activity of TCs in EA from 1981 to 2019 that is mainly accompanied by an abrupt regime shift in TC passage frequency since 1998. Such trend and shift are robustly linked to the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to its negative phase in the mid-1990s. Characterized by warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific, a negative PDO phase is related to the weakening of the East Asian subtropical jetstream and the westward displacement of the WNP subtropical high, which initiates a favorable steering environment for increased TC passages into the EA region. Contrasting environmental patterns are associated in a positive PDO phase. Considering the prominence of EA in the global economy, our paper contributes additional insights on long-term tropical cyclone risk reduction and management in the region.

Ocean Forcing on Titicaca Lake Water Volume

The time series of water level of Titicaca Lake (TL) was compared to the time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes between 1914 and 2014 and 1969 and 2014, monthly and daily, respectively. Results indicate TL water level decreased (increased) during positive (negative) PDO phases. ENSO positive (negative) phase results were similar. Positive (negative) PDO and ENSO phases yielded negative (positive) precipitation anomalies and concomitant decrease (increase) of TL water level. These long-term relationships among TL water levels and both oceanic indexes can be useful and prognostic.