Negative Emissions Research Articles

Sustainable negative emissions in Europe: evaluating scenarios to meet carbon neutrality by 2050

Abstract Using the Pan-European TIMES-VTT model, we studied pathways for carbon neutrality by 2050 for 31 European countries by modelling a large portfolio of various terrestrial and technological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies. Negative emission technologies and practices (NETPs) such as af-/reforestation, soil carbon sequestration, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and storage, biochar, and enhanced weathering were considered. Three different storylines were created to describe the role of NETPs in varying future developments. The scenario storylines illustrate potential opportunities and constraints for large scale NETP implementation focusing on (1) optimistic technology development, (2) strict protection of planetary boundaries, and (3) increased self-sufficiency due to geopolitical risks associated with policy fragmentation. The results show that the demand for NETPs could be on a gigaton scale to reach carbon neutrality in Europe by 2050. As different countries have different opportunities to implement NETPs, none of the NETP options should be excluded from mitigation portfolios at this stage. The results also indicate the potential of NETPs in providing cost-effective solutions for achieving climate targets. On the other hand, stricter greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are needed to avoid over-reliance on CDR.

Ash Interaction with Two Cu-Based Magnetic Oxygen Carriers during Biomass Combustion by the Chemical Looping with Oxygen Uncoupling Process.

Chemical-looping combustion (CLC) stands out as a promising method for carbon capture and storage for the purpose of mitigating climate change. The process involves the conversion of fuel facilitated by an oxygen carrier, with the resulting CO2 inherently separated from other air components. Notably, when applied to biomass combustion this process offers a pathway to achieving negative CO2 emissions. However, a significant challenge for CLC, particularly in its application to biomass, is the management of interactions between ash and oxygen carriers. Biomass-derived ashes typically contain substantial quantities of reactive ash-forming substances, such as alkaline and alkali earth elements. These interactions can impact the performance and longevity of the oxygen carrier, necessitating careful consideration and mitigation strategies in CLC systems utilizing biomass feedstocks. This study examined the interaction between biomass ash components and two recently developed oxygen carriers, Cu30MnFekao7.5 and Cu30MnFe, during combustion in a 1.5 kWth continuous unit. Both oxygen carriers achieved 100% combustion efficiency and a CO2 capture efficiency of 95% at 900 °C. Although the copper in both oxygen carriers did not exhibit any noticeable interaction with ash components, the accumulative presence of potassium and magnesium in Cu30MnFekao7.5 was identified by inductively coupled plasma and scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray analysis, indicating an increase in the amount of both elements in the particles after combustion operation. No problems of agglomeration or fluidization were observed in any of the experiments.

A rough set-based model for predicting soil greenhouse gases response to biochar

Biochar application to soil is a potential climate change mitigation strategy. In addition to long-term sequestration of the carbon content of the biochar itself, its application may reduce the emissions of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the soil. However, the reported effects of biochar application on soil GHG fluxes exhibit inconsistent results. Prediction of such effects is an important gap that needs to be addressed in biochar research. In this study, rule-based machine learning models were developed based on rough-set theory. Data from the literature were used to generate the rules for predicting the effects of biochar application on soil GHG (CO2, N2O, and CH4) fluxes. Four rule-based models for CO2 fluxes, two rule-based models for N2O fluxes, and three rule-based models for CH4 fluxes were developed. The validity of these models was assessed based on both statistical measures and mechanistic plausibility. The final rule-based models can guide the prediction of changes in soil GHG fluxes due to biochar application, and thus serve as a decision-support tool to maximize the benefits of biochar application as a negative emission technology (NET). In particular, mechanistically plausible rules were identified that predict triggers for GHG fluxes that can offset carbon sequestration gains. This knowledge allows biochar application to be calibrated to local conditions for maximum efficacy.Graphical

Tradeoffs between economy wide future net zero and net negative economy systems: The case of Chile

Given the possible economic consequences, poorer countries have more challenges in delivering their Nationally Determined Contributions. As a developing country, Chile has pledged to attain carbon neutrality by 2050. While Chile has implemented several mitigation measures, it still relies heavily on carbon sequestration, intending to sequester around 65 MtCO2e by 2050. However, heavy reliance on sequestration poses several risks as the literature shows that natural sinks, particularly forest and land, are exposed to severe impacts from global warming and climate change. Fortunately, Chile has significant renewable energy potential, which, if fully utilized, may move the country towards a net negative emissions context. To assess if such a net-negative system is feasible in the context of Chile, a new regional version of the Global Change Analysis Model for Chile is developed. The model is used to investigate the effects and required levels of investment in renewable energy and decarbonization of end-use sectors to achieve economy-wide net negative emissions scenarios. The design of net negative pathways follows a statistical approach based on the expected sequestration capacity in 2050 and its corresponding confidence interval. The results are compared to scenarios that are aligned with the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050. The findings show that obtaining net-zero emissions by 2050 is possible, however achieving net negative systems will be dependent on existing sequestration capacity and the application of economic incentives to boost green energy deployment in Chile as well as to push such green energy, in the form of electricity or e-fuels, into hard to decarbonize final demand sectors, such as transport, mining, and industry demand sectors. The results also indicate that after significantly reducing CO2 emissions from the energy sector (primarily the power sector), the agricultural sector and other urban and industrial sectors still contribute to non-significant levels of CH4 and N2O emissions.

Mild one-pot production of glycerol carbonate from CO2 with separation from ionic liquid catalyst

Carbon capture and utilization stands as way forward in the minimization of CO2 emissions. It complements the search for clean and effective energy, as it is challenging to achieve zero to negative CO2 net emissions. The glycerol carbonate product opens a new strategy based on a double-residue approach (glycerol and CO2) to contribute, together with ionic liquids (ILs), drafting a new one-pot concept (intensified three phase reactor) at mild conditions and using homogeneous catalysts. In this work, the catalytic activity of [P666,14][Br] in the cycloaddition of CO2 to glycidol has been demonstrated to be highly effective under mild conditions of 45 °C and 5 bar. In addition, liquid–liquid extraction approach is found to be an efficient separation strategy for carbonate product and IL catalyst. 1-Decanol (DOH) is selected as efficient extracting solvent, due to its almost complete immiscibility with glycerol carbonate, as well as the high distribution ratio of the IL catalyst in DOH rich phase. It implies an easy product separation and, simultaneously, an easy catalyst recovery. A preliminary kinetic validation of the three-phase reactor performance has been properly described, enabling the intensified concept. Finally, combining COSMO/Aspen simulation and life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies, low energy consumption (avoiding heating) and low GWP scenarios for the CO2 conversion process have been concluded. This work enables a new concept together with concluding the path to developing this CCU technology in the search of zero to negative CO2 emissions to sustainably capture and convert CO2 into value-added products.

Study on the mechanism of competitive adsorption on the surface of potassium carbonate during direct air capture process

Direct air capture carbon dioxide (DAC) technology has the potential to achieve negative carbon emissions. Alkali metal-based absorbents (the active ingredient is mainly potassium carbonate or sodium carbonate) have a broad application prospect in DAC field. There is a paucity of reports on the competitive adsorption of major components of air on adsorbent surfaces. In this paper, the competitive adsorption behaviors of CO2, H2O, N2, and O2 on the surface of K2CO3 were investigated based on first principles and density functional theory (DFT), the synergic competition mechanism of each gas during adsorption was revealed by analyzing the parameters of adsorption energy, charge transfer, weak interactions and so on. The results showed that the maximum adsorption energy of CO2 by K2CO3 was 0.557 eV, and the relationship between the maximum adsorption energies of the four gases was O2 > H2O > CO2 > N2. The interaction between H2O and CO2 during co-adsorption inhibited their adsorption on the K2CO3 surface, especially weakening the adsorption effect of the surface O atoms on the H2O. Under CO2_N2_O2 gas composition, CO2 chemisorption occurred due to the strong oxidizing property of O2, the charge transfer effect commonly existed in the adsorption process of each gas, which contributed the most to O2 adsorption. The obtained results can further deepen the decarbonization mechanism of alkali metal-based adsorbents.

The cost of CO2 emissions abatement in a micro energy community in a Belgian context

This paper investigates and quantifies the benefits and the cost of CO2 emissions abatement of a Micro Energy Community (MEC) in a tiny residential cluster of three houses in a Belgian context. A simulation-based comparative analysis is performed of two individual and two MEC concepts, i.e. a reference scenario, an individual electrification scenario, an electricity sharing scenario, and an energy community scenario. A deterministic dynamic white-box modelling approach, including optimal control, is used, considering heat for space heating and domestic hot water, and electricity for electrical appliances. The energy system that achieves the greatest emission reduction at the lowest cost, has a collective heat pump and a photovoltaic installation sized based on the plug load demand. This system reduces the annual CO2 emissions by 11.48 tons at a cost of 179 EUR/ton CO2 considering 2021 dynamic retail electricity prices with a median of 251 EUR/MWh and a fixed retail gas price of 64 EUR/MWh. However, the results are strongly dependent on the gas-electricity price ratio. The highest value of the retail gas price in 2021 leads to a negative CO2 emissions abatement cost of 154 EUR/ton CO2, putting energy community concepts on the radar for a cost-effective energy transition.

Process Integration Technique for Targeting Carbon Credit Price Subsidy

Mitigating climate change requires a portfolio of strategies and the use of carbon dioxide removal techniques or negative emissions technologies (NETs) will be necessary to achieve to achieve this goal. However, the high implementation costs of advanced NETs lead to expensive carbon credits, hindering their broad acceptance and use. One potential solution involves governmental support through subsidies, aiming to boost the availability of NET-derived carbon credits. This research uses a graphical technique based on an extension of pinch analysis to identify the ideal subsidy level for carbon dioxide removal, taking into account factors such as carbon pricing, supply, and demand. The proposed approach modifies the limiting composite curve (LCC) methodology to accurately determine the optimal subsidy and establish the baseline amount of subsidized carbon dioxide removal needed. The approach enables the convenient and efficient construction of the LCC using a composite table algorithm. To illustrate the proposed methodology, two case studies composed of different NETs and demand sectors are investigated. The results show the most advantageous subsidy levels for these technologies, providing valuable insights to guide policymakers and investors in their decarbonization efforts. This research contributes to the development of effective governance and investment strategies by optimizing NET subsidy allocation. Such optimization is crucial for facilitating the widespread implementation of these technologies, which are in-line with the global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Advancing the deployment and information management of direct air capture: A solution enabled by integrating consortium blockchain system

Direct air capture (DAC) is a critical and emerging Negative Emissions Technology (NET) that directly removes CO2 from the atmosphere, significantly contributing to climate change. However, the deployment and management of large-scale DAC faces challenges such as collections and analysis of energy consumption data, intricate device and system management, emission prediction and operation strategy, precise carbon footprint tracking, etc. This paper proposes the integration of blockchain technology with DAC systems to address these challenges, utilizing blockchain's inherent properties of immutability, security, and transparency. The implementation strategy includes the development of a DAC consortium blockchain system, leveraging a consensus mechanism11Consensus mechanism: The programming and process used in blockchain systems to achieve distributed agreement about the ledger's state or the state of a data set. (Source: Investopedia), ECDSA encryption22Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA): In cryptography, the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) offers a variant of the Digital Signature Algorithm (DSA) which uses elliptic-curve cryptography. As with elliptic-curve cryptography in general, the bit size of the private key believed to be needed for ECDSA is about twice the size of the security level, in bits. (Source: Wikipedia), IoT33Internet of things (IoT): describes devices with sensors, processing ability, software and other technologies that connect and exchange data with other devices and systems over the Internet or other communication networks. (Source: Wikipedia) integration, and digital signatures. Preliminary modeling of the proposed system suggests potential improvements in operational efficiency and a reduction in data inaccuracies. The proposed system underscores the system's ability to streamline identity verification, improve data collection accuracy, and facilitate secure, confidential information sharing among DAC stakeholders. By enhancing the efficiency and reliability of DAC operations, this approach supports the scalable and effective deployment of NETs in the global effort to combat climate change. Future research will focus on empirical validation through pilot projects and simulations to further substantiate these claims.

Power generation with negative CO2 emissions through bio-electricity with CCS using dry co-gasification of coal-biomass blends

Power generation with negative CO2 emissions through bio-electricity with CCS using dry co-gasification of coal-biomass blends

Modeling biomimetic absorbent compounds for capturing carbon dioxide

Carbon capture and storage is a critical component of negative emission technologies for achieving economy-wide carbon neutrality to mitigate climate change and limit global temperature increase. Removal of CO2 can be undertaken after the standard pollution controls. Yet, the separation of CO2 from flue gas via CO2 capture processes is challenging because a high volume of gas must be treated, the CO2 is dilute, the flue gas is at atmospheric pressure, trace impurities can degrade capture media, and the captured CO2 must be compressed. We present a computational study of a novel family of biomimetic materials for such carbon capture processes based on the Crassulacean Acid Metabolism. Phosphoenolpyruvate serves as a template for designing similar molecules for use as CO2 solvents with designed thermochemical properties.

Impacts of lifestyle changes on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

Most energy scenario studies typically focus on technological options and fuel substitution for decarbonising future energy systems. Lifestyle changes are rarely considered, although they can significantly reduce energy demand and climate change mitigation efforts. By using an energy system model, this study shows that it is possible to reduce final energy demand in Germany by 61 % in 2050 relative to 2019 levels, resulting in an annual per capita energy demand of 44 GJ for a representative country of the Global North. This goal can be achieved through a combination of technological measures and lifestyle changes without sacrificing a decent standard of living. Societal chances can eliminate reliance on not-yet-established negative emission technologies, reduce energy dependency, and reduce the need for energy-intensive hydrogen and e-fuels. Downsizing the energy system provides an opportunity for strengthening climate change mitigation, decrease material demand and reduce land use.

The role of the pulp and paper industry in achieving net zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050

The pulp and paper industry is energy-intensive, making up about 9 % of total United States industrial energy consumption and 2.5 % of U.S. industrial greenhouse gas emissions. The pulp and paper industry is unique among industrial sectors due to its existing reliance on waste biomass to generate energy for mill operations. Pulp and paper mills could theoretically offer opportunities for negative emissions through carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies along with use of biomass. In addition, the paper sector's use of low-temperature industrial heat creates opportunities for CO2 reductions through electrification technologies.We employ the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the pulp and paper sector in the United States, as well as the sector's role in a net zero scenario and impacts on the energy, land, and water sectors. The version of GCAM used in this study includes detailed representation of major industrial sectors, including the pulp and paper industry. Representation of the linkage between forest products and paper production allow us to account for upstream carbon emissions, sequestration, and land-use impacts.Preliminary results under a pathway to net zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050 show that the pulp and paper industry can reach net zero CO2 emissions before 2050, earlier than the overall energy system, and contribute negative emissions thereafter. Use of fossil fuels is significantly reduced by 2050, shifting to increased electricity use in process heat generation. Consumption of biomass energy in process heat also increases compared to the reference scenario. Though paper production decreases in the policy scenario in response to higher prices of wood products, a high carbon price can incentivize increased use of biomass with CCS and thus paper production. Negative emissions opportunities in the paper industry have impacts on the land sector. Increasing use of biomass accelerates the shift from unmanaged to managed forests, with associated tradeoffs between technological carbon sequestration and natural ecosystem services.

Design and analysis of negative CO2 emission methanol synthesis process incorporating green hydrogen and blue hydrogen

Methanol (MeOH) production by integration of green and blue hydrogen is evaluated herein. From 2018 to 2023, methanol demand increased by 3.6 % due to its use in various chemical industries as an eco-friendly fuel and as a method of transporting hydrogen and capturing renewable CO2. Moreover, due to the continual decrease in the cost of renewable energy, research into the use of green hydrogen from electrolysis is being conducted. Most of this research has focused on producing methanol from the green hydrogen obtained from proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis along with CO2 emissions from power plants. The present study examines processes based on oxyfuel combustion with oxygen obtained from either the PEM or an air separation unit (ASU) to produce methanol. By using oxyfuel combustion, the carbon capture process (which accounts for 30–50 % of the blue hydrogen cost) and pure (>98.75 %) 7.45 tCO2/tH2 can be obtained by separating H2O from the flue gas. By using the PEM, green hydrogen can capture 0.35 tCO2/tMeOH of external CO2. Furthermore, a carbon techno-economic analysis (CTEA) and a sensitivity analysis are conducted to evaluate the sustainability and feasibility of the proposed processes. As a result, the levelized cost of methanol (LCOM) is $373.91/tMeOH for the Blue process and $428.78/tMeOH for the Blue + Green process, each of which is below the current market price of $500/tMeOH. If the PEM price continues to decrease, and the carbon credit increases by €300/tCO2, after 2030, the Blue + Green process will become more lucrative than the Blue-only process. Thus, by considering the continuous decrease in renewable energy prices, the production of methanol via a hybrid Blue + Green process is suitable for a sustainable future.

Meta-analysis of GHG emissions stimulated by crop residue return in paddy fields: Strategies for mitigation

The stimulating impact of crop residue return on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy fields have been widely accepted, while the influence of site environmental and human factors on the simulating degree remains unclear. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the GHG emissions affected by residue return, and its mitigation potential combined with key factors in paddy fields. Drawing upon 1047 observation sets of CH4 and N2O emissions from 155 peer-reviewed publications we found that residue return to paddy fields caused an average increase of 73% CH4 emissions and 14% in N2O emissions. Utilizing meta-analytical models, we identified pH as the most significant driver modulating GHG emissions, followed by soil organic matter (SOC) and total nitrogen. In alkaline soils, combining straw return with intermittent irrigation (285.2%) or mid-season drainage (118.9%) significantly reduced CH4 emissions compared to continuous flooding (1201.9%). Additionally, pairing straw return with higher nitrogen inputs (above 150 kg N ha−1) improved soil N2O uptake by −11.5%. In acid and neutral soils, straw carbonization achieved soil CH4 negative emissions (from −2.9% to −39.3%), but the long-term effects remained unclear. Reduced drainage frequency mitigates N2O emissions but may increase CH4 emissions. To efficiently mitigate GHG emissions, we proposed low-carbon schemes for acid or neutral soils based on specific SOC content: For soils with SOC content <10 g kg−1, prioritize nitrogen input control with rates not exceeding 174 kg N ha−1. For soils with SOC content >10 g kg−1, prioritize adjusting the type of straw. Our study underscores the significance of site-specific factors in modulating GHG emissions. Efficient GHG mitigation can be achieved by combining residue return with other agronomic measures tailored to different soil conditions.

Research advances of microbial transformation of CO2 in geological sequestration

Carbon capture, utilization and storage is the vital technology for China to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Microbial activities in situ are an indispensable part in the process of geological CO2 sequestration. Some microorganisms can convert CO2 into methane and organics as the resource for utilization or into carbonate to achieve long-term sequestration. These activities contribute to the stable storage of CO2 and even negative carbon emission. This paper focuses on the processes of bio-methanation, bio-liquefaction, and bio-precipitation that may be involved in CO2 sequestration in deep stratum and discusses the research progress in the bio-transformation pathways. Bio-methanation and bio-liquefaction can convert CO2 into methane or high-value organic compounds to realize resource reuse. The two technologies can be used alone or coupled to expand the application range of CO2 biotransformation. Bio-mineralization can convert CO2 into calcite by microorganism-induced carbonate precipitation, being a technology of great potential in fixing CO2 and limiting CO2 escape. At present, this field is still in the infancy stage, and there is an urgent need to establish and improve the theoretical and technical systems of CO2 in-situ biotransformation from transformation principle, influencing factors, conversion efficiency, economy, environmental protection, and technological conditions. Moreover, it can be combined with CCUS to establish a technical system integrating capture, transport, displace, storage, transfer, and exploit, so as to promote the value-added application of CCUS and the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Decarbonization pathways for Korea's industrial sector towards its 2050 carbon neutrality goal

This study examines cost-effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Korea's industry sector to achieve the nation's 2050 carbon neutrality goal, using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) integrated assessment modeling (IAM) framework. We find that the iron & steel, cement, and chemical industry segments contribute about 70% of the sector's GHG mitigation efforts to align with 2050 carbon neutrality. Key decarbonization options include electrification of industrial processes, utilization of hydrogen and bioenergy, and adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, although the relative significance of these options varies across the segments. We also demonstrate the dependency of sectoral decarbonization pathways on the availability of CCS and hydrogen technologies, as well as their influence on the development of upstream energy infrastructures, such as electricity and hydrogen production. Our results indicate that limited CCS deployment would necessitate a faster phase-out of fossil fuel-based industrial technologies and quicker decarbonization of the electricity and hydrogen production sectors. Conversely, constrained hydrogen deployment would increase reliance on CCS, placing a greater emission reduction burden on other sectors like electricity generation and buildings. Within the industry sector, limited CCS utilization would force the chemical segment to achieve disproportionately larger negative emissions compared to the constrained hydrogen deployment scenario, as the latter allows for wider adoption of CCS, particularly in the iron & steel segment. Overall, the study emphasizes the need for rapid and extensive transformation of the three key industrial segments to achieve Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality target, with CCS technologies and, to a lesser extent, hydrogen technologies playing a significant role in shaping the industry's decarbonization pathways and the nation's energy systems.

Life cycle and techno-economic analyses of biofuels production via anaerobic digestion and amine scrubbing CO2 capture

The global energy landscape highlights the importance of the hydrogen economy, emphasizing its critical role in worldwide energy policies. This study explores a system designed for producing biomethanol and biomethane by integrating anaerobic digestion, biogas upgrading, and high-temperature electrolysis. The system builds on real-scale industrial data from an existing anaerobic digestion plant, which has been expanded to include biogas upgrading, an oxy-fuel gas turbine, a Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC), and a methanol production unit. Hydrogen, generated through electrolysis, synthesizes biomethanol by reacting with CO2. Additionally, the system produces biomethane through biogas upgrading. The system incorporates thermal energy integration with an oxy-fuel gas turbine. Life cycle assessment (LCA) results demonstrate the system’s environmental potential, achieved negative CO2 emissions of −0.0075 kgCO2eq/kgBiomass in case of photovoltaic panels and −0.0096 kgCO2eq/kgBiomass in case of wind turbines as electricity sources, attributed to efficient conversion of sewage sludge into valuable biofuels. Thermodynamic modeling in Aspen Plus shows an energy efficiency of 58.09 %, with outputs of 188 kg/h of biomethane and 269 kg/h of biomethanol. The techno-economic analysis reveals a payback period of 6.11 years and a levelized cost of biomethanol of 294.37 € per ton, indicating the system’s economic viability. The LCA further underscores the system’s sustainability, supporting its environmental benefits. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into the viability and environmental impact of the proposed biofuel production system.

P-graph and Monte Carlo simulation approach for sustainable and risk-managed CDR portfolios

Negative emission technologies (NETs) that perform carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are now part of the decarbonization strategies to reach net-zero emissions. However, NETs will consume resources that will compete with other societal priorities. Thus, NET portfolios that provide a technology mix are better for sustainability and risk management. This study proposes a two-step approach to optimize and check the robustness of NET portfolios, particularly for industrial-scale applications where resource availability fluctuates due to variations in energy, water, and fertilizer supply. The first step involves the process graph (P-graph) framework to generate optimal and near-optimal solution structures at minimum cost. The second step measures the probability of failure of these solutions against resource availability variations through Monte Carlo simulation. By comparing the cost and probability of failure, decision-makers can select a recommended solution that strikes a balance between robustness and cost. The proposed approach is demonstrated in two case studies involving NET portfolios. The first case study investigates the performance of optimal and near-optimal solutions of NET portfolios, while the second case study focuses on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage portfolios using different feedstocks. In both cases, the results show that near-optimal solutions with higher costs but lower probabilities of failure exist, enabling decision-makers to weigh robustness against cost. This study contributes to developing and analyzing robust decarbonization decision support models, addressing the critical need for sustainable and risk-managed NET portfolios.

Carbon emission scenario analysis of data centers in China under the carbon neutrality target

The low-carbon transformation of data centers is of great significance to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study compared and analyzed the overall situation of data centers in China. Based on China's CO2 emission and intensity targets in key years, the four variables of energy efficiency improvement rate, nonfossil energy consumption proportion, negative emission technology intensity, and waste energy utilization rate were introduced, and a net zero emission path model of data centers was established. Using scenario analysis to predict the total CO2 emissions and emission intensity from 2021 to 2060, three emission reduction path scenarios were obtained. Results showed that the energy consumption of data centers increased gradually, the carbon emissions first increased and then decreased, and the power usage effectiveness (PUE) of the data centers decreased gradually. The carbon peak time of the three scenarios is 2030, and the time for carbon neutrality is 2055, 2053, and 2051 in three scenarios. The data center industry should further improve the energy efficiency utilization rate, increase the proportion of nonfossil energy consumption, strengthen the technological innovation of carbon capture and storage, enhance the level of carbon sink, and optimize the utilization rate of waste energy.