Near-surface Ozone Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Changes of Near-Surface Ozone Concentration From 2015 to 2018 in Beijing

In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal changes of near-surface O3 concentration based on 33 automatic air quality monitoring stations in Beijing in 2015 and 2018. Here we show that the diurnal variations for O3 concentration at 33 monitoring stations exhibited a single-peak mode with a minimum concentration from 06:00 to 07:00 and a maximum value from 14:00 to 15:00. We find that the O3 concentration was significantly positively correlated with the air temperature, solar total radiation, and wind speed, while it was negatively correlated with the relative humidity. Among those factors, the air temperature played the most important role in influencing O3 concentration (relative contribution is greater than 88% in the boosted regression trees model). We also present that the annual variation of O3 concentration at all stations tended to be a “bell-shaped” curve distribution with a peak in summer and the lowest value in winter. The annual averaged O3 concentration at 33 stations in Beijing was 57.5 ± 9.8 μg⋅m−3 in 2015 and 60.3 ± 9.0 μg⋅m−3 in 2018. In addition, we detect that the annual averaged value of the O3 concentration was lower in the central and southern Beijing, and higher in the northern Beijing both in 2015 and 2018. The spatial difference of the O3 concentration could be explained by the traffic pollution, vegetation coverage, atmospheric regional transmission, and atmospheric particulate matter concentration.

The impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution and stratospheric intrusions on the surrounding San Gabriel Mountains as seen by surface measurements, lidar, and numerical models

Abstract. In this work, the impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution transport and stratospheric intrusions on the surface ozone levels observed in the San Gabriel Mountains is investigated based on a combination of surface and lidar measurements as well as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) and WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) runs. The number of days with observed surface ozone levels exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, with a maximum during summer, when models suggest a minimum influence of stratospheric intrusions and the largest impact from Los Angeles Basin pollution transport. Additionally, measured and modeled surface ozone and PM10 were analyzed as a function of season, time of the day, and wind direction. Measurements and models are in good qualitative agreement, with maximum surface ozone observed for southwest and west winds. For the prevailing summer wind direction, slightly south of the ozone maximum and corresponding to south-southwest winds, lower ozone levels were observed. Back trajectories suggest that this is associated with transport from the central Los Angeles Basin, where titration limits the amount of surface ozone. A quantitative comparison of the lidar profiles with WRF-Chem and WACCM models revealed good agreement near the surface, with models showing an increasing positive bias as function of altitude, reaching 75 % at 15 km above sea level. Finally, three selected case studies covering the different mechanisms affecting the near-surface ozone concentration over the San Gabriel Mountains, namely stratospheric intrusions and pollution transport, are analyzed based on surface and ozone lidar measurements, as well as co-located ceilometer measurements and models.

The effect of current and future maternal exposure to near-surface ozone on preterm birth in 30 European countries—an EU-wide health impact assessment

Preterm birth is the largest contributor to neonatal mortality globally and it is also associated with several adverse health outcomes. Recent studies have found an association between maternal exposure to air pollution and an increased risk for preterm birth. As a constituent of air pollution, ozone is a highly reactive molecule with several negative health effects when present near earth’s surface. This health impact assessment aims to estimate the proportion of preterm births—in current and future situations—attributable to maternal ozone exposure in 30 European countries (EU30). A literature search was performed using relevant keywords, followed by meta-analysis with STATA software in which five studies investigating exposure-response relationship of interest were included. The attributable proportion, and number of cases, was modelled with the software AirQ+ against current and future European ozone concentrations. According to our meta-analysis, the relative risk for giving birth preterm was calculated to 1.027 (95% CI 1.009–1.046) per 10 μg m−3 increase in ozone concentration. This rendered 7.1% (95% CI 2.5–11.7) of preterm births attributable to maternal ozone exposure to in EU30 during 2010, which is equal to approximately 27 900 cases. By 2050, the projected decrease in ozone precursor emissions rendered an estimated 30% decrease of ozone attributable preterm births. Not taking emission change into account, due to climate change the ozone-related preterm birth burden might slightly increase by 2050 in Central and Southern Europe, and decrease in Eastern and Northern Europe. In summation, these numbers make a substantial impact on public health.

Understanding the impact of meteorology on ozone in 334 cities of China

The daily variations of near-surface ozone (O3), one of the major air pollutants in China, depend on meteorological conditions. In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of O3 pollution and the complicated interactions among the controlling meteorological factors. In China, O3 pollution is becoming severe and high-concentration areas are expanding greatly. We found that O3 was correlated to numerous meteorological variables including air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, sunshine duration, evaporation, and precipitation. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we developed predictive models to forecast the maximum daily 8 h O3 mass concentration for 334 cities in China. Different cities were influenced by different meteorological variables, with temperature (90.77%), relative humidity (68.15%), and sunshine hours (66.96%) being the top three influencing factors. In addition, we found that the influence of these meteorological factors on O3 pollution was nonlinear and impacted by the interaction between variables. Considering individual relationships between each meteorological factor and O3, the average coefficient of determination (R2) of GAMs for the 334 cities was 0.64 ± 0.16. However, considering the interaction between variables, the average R2 for 334 cities of revised GAMs increased to 0.72 ± 0.15. The R2 was significantly improved in 96.72% of the cities after considering the interactions among the meteorological factors based on a ten-fold cross-validation method. Furthermore, we found that the GAM residuals were unbiased. As an example of using and interpreting the GAM results, we focused on a case study in Hangzhou during the G20 summit in 2016. During this period, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds were reduced by 51.67% and 49.00%, respectively, because of local emission controls. Despite these changes in precursor emissions, O3 changed slightly during this period, suggesting that O3 in Hangzhou at the time was not controlled by local precursor emissions, but was impacted by meteorological conditions.

A Credit System to Solve Agricultural Nitrogen Pollution

A Credit System to Solve Agricultural Nitrogen Pollution

IntelliO3-ts v1.0: a neural network approach to predict near-surface ozone concentrations in Germany

Abstract. The prediction of near-surface ozone concentrations is important for supporting regulatory procedures for the protection of humans from high exposure to air pollution. In this study, we introduce a data-driven forecasting model named “IntelliO3-ts”, which consists of multiple convolutional neural network (CNN) layers, grouped together as inception blocks. The model is trained with measured multi-year ozone and nitrogen oxide concentrations of more than 300 German measurement stations in rural environments and six meteorological variables from the meteorological COSMO reanalysis. This is by far the most extensive dataset used for time series predictions based on neural networks so far. IntelliO3-ts allows the prediction of daily maximum 8 h average (dma8eu) ozone concentrations for a lead time of up to 4 d, and we show that the model outperforms standard reference models like persistence models. Moreover, we demonstrate that IntelliO3-ts outperforms climatological reference models for the first 2 d, while it does not add any genuine value for longer lead times. We attribute this to the limited deterministic information that is contained in the single-station time series training data. We applied a bootstrapping technique to analyse the influence of different input variables and found that the previous-day ozone concentrations are of major importance, followed by 2 m temperature. As we did not use any geographic information to train IntelliO3-ts in its current version and included no relation between stations, the influence of the horizontal wind components on the model performance is minimal. We expect that the inclusion of advection–diffusion terms in the model could improve results in future versions of our model.

Year-round record of near-surface ozone and O3 enhancement events (OEEs) at Dome A, East Antarctica

Abstract. Dome A, the summit of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is an area challenging to access and is one of the harshest environments on Earth. Up until recently, long-term automated observations from Dome A (DA) were only possible with very low power instruments such as a basic meteorological station. To evaluate the characteristics of near-surface O3, continuous observations were carried out in 2016. Together with observations at the Amundsen–Scott Station (South Pole – SP) and Zhongshan Station (ZS, on the southeast coast of Prydz Bay), the seasonal and diurnal O3 variabilities were investigated. The results showed different patterns between coastal and inland Antarctic areas that were characterized by high concentrations in cold seasons and at night. The annual mean values at the three stations (DA, SP and ZS) were 29.2±7.5, 29.9±5.0 and 24.1±5.8 ppb, respectively. We investigated the effect of specific atmospheric processes on near-surface summer O3 variability, when O3 enhancement events (OEEs) are systematically observed at DA (average monthly frequency peaking at up to 64.5 % in December). As deduced by a statistical selection methodology, these O3 enhancement events (OEEs) are affected by significant interannual variability, both in their average O3 values and in their frequency. To explain part of this variability, we analyzed the OEEs as a function of specific atmospheric processes: (i) the role of synoptic-scale air mass transport over the Antarctic Plateau was explored using the Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) method, and (ii) the occurrence of “deep” stratospheric intrusion events was investigated using the Lagrangian tool STEFLUX. The specific atmospheric processes, including synoptic-scale air mass transport, were analyzed by the HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis and the potential source contribution function (PSCF) model. Short-range transport accounted for the O3 enhancement events (OEEs) during summer at DA, rather than efficient local production, which is consistent with previous studies of inland Antarctica. Moreover, the identification of recent (i.e., 4 d old) stratospheric-intrusion events by STEFLUX suggested that deep events only had a minor influence (up to 1.1 % of the period, in August) on deep events during the variability in near-surface summer O3 at DA. The deep events during the polar night were significantly higher than those during the polar day. This work provides unique data on ozone variation at DA and expands our knowledge of such events in Antarctica. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3923517 (Ding and Tian, 2020).

Sources and variations of tropospheric ozone in central Siberia: observations and model simulations

Impact of climatically significant anthropogenic and natural emissions to seasonal ozone (O3) variations observed at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia in 2007–2012 have quantitatively been estimated using GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. It is shown that the formation of a stable continental pollution plume from sources in Western Europe, European Russia, and southern Siberia plays an important role in regional balance of near-surface ozone and allows to explain up to 15%–17% of the amplitude of O3 annual cycle observed at ZOTTO (∼5–6 ppb).

Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes

This paper analyses the impact of the control measures during the COVID-19 lockdown in Europe (15 March–30 April 2020) on 1-h daily maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and maximum daily 8-h running average ozone (MDA8 O3) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase). Daily maximum NO2 decreased consistently over the whole continent, with relative reductions ranging from 5% to 55% with respect to the same period in 2015–2019 for 80% of the sites considered (10th – 90th percentiles). However, MDA8 O3 concentrations showed a different pattern, decreasing over Iberia and increasing elsewhere. In particular, a large region from northwestern to central Europe experienced increases of 10–22% at urban background stations, reaching typical values of the summer season. The analysis of the expected NO2 and O3 concentrations in the absence of the lockdown, using generalised additive models fed by reanalysis meteorological data, shows that the low NO2 concentrations were mostly attributed to the emission reductions while O3 anomalies were dominated by the meteorology. The relevance of each meteorological variable depends on the location. The positive O3 anomalies in northwestern and central Europe were mostly associated with elevated temperatures, low specific humidity and enhanced solar radiation. This pattern could be an analogue to study the limits of pollution control policies under climate change scenarios. On the other hand, the O3 reduction in Iberia is mostly attributable to the low solar radiation and high specific humidity, although the reduced zonal wind also played a role in the proximity of the Iberian Mediterranean coast.

On the link between the Etesian winds, tropopause folds and tropospheric ozone over the Eastern Mediterranean during summer

The summertime Eastern Mediterranean experiences among the highest worldwide near-surface ozone values often exceeding the EU air-quality standard for human health protection. Downward transport of stratospheric ozone-rich air masses through tropopause folds has been shown to significantly contribute to these high tropospheric ozone levels. The summer circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean is dominated by large-scale subsidence and persistent northerly winds, the Etesians, as well as tropopause fold activity affecting tropospheric ozone levels and variability. This is the first study that directly investigates the connections of the Etesians with tropopause folds and tropospheric ozone over the Eastern Mediterranean region using the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) climate model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm for the period June‐August 1979 to 2013. Model validation against reanalysis and observational measurements indicates that EMAC simulates well the sea level pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea reproducing the occurrence frequency of the Etesians. The shared variance between the simulated and the observed year-to-year frequency of the Etesian winds is higher than 80%. The year-to-year variability of summertime tropopause folds frequency is significantly correlated with the Etesian winds with a correlation coefficient close to 0.7. In addition, a significant increase of the fold activity and the ozone concentrations are observed during intense Etesians. Our findings may have implications for air quality studies and could support human health policy, as the Etesians coincide with favorable conditions for the formation of tropopause folds and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and therefore, with enhanced ozone levels over the Eastern Mediterranean.

Increasing wintertime ozone levels and secondary aerosol formation in the Guanzhong basin, central China

The observed near-surface ozone (O3) concentration has been remarkably increasing during recent years in winter in the Guanzhong basin, central China, showing a continuous enhancement of the atmospheric oxidizing capacity (AOC). The impact of such a change in the AOC on secondary aerosol formation, however, has not yet been assessed. In this study, we simulate the formation of O3 and airborne particles in the atmosphere using the WRF-Chem model, in which the AOC is calculated quantitatively, to understand the responses of secondary aerosols to the AOC increase. Meteorological observations, air pollutants including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, and PM2.5 concentrations at ambient monitoring sites, and the main compositions of submicron particulates measured using ACSM are used to constrain the model simulation. The model result shows that the population hourly and postmeridian Ox (=O3 + NO2) concentrations are good indicators for the wintertime AOC in the basin, suggested by the significantly positive correlations between them. Sensitivity experiments present that the AOC changes may exert important influences on fine particle (PM2.5) concentration with an average rate of 1.94 (μg m−3)/(106 cm−3 s−1) for Δ(PM2.5)/Δ(AOC), which is mostly caused by the mass changes in secondary organic aerosol (43%) and nitrate aerosol (40%) and less attributed to the ammonium (11%) and sulfate (6%) components.

Characteristics of VOCs and Their Roles in Ozone Formation at a Regional Background Site in Beijing, China

As important precursors of near-surface ozone, secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play an important role in photochemical reactions and fine particle formation. In this study, real-time VOCs were measured continuously by Syntech Spectras GC955 analyzers at the regional background site of the North China Plain from September 1 to 27, 2017. The VOC concentration levels, compositions, spatiotemporal variations, and the ozone formation potential during the observation period were investigated. The potential sources of initial VOCs indicated from the diagnostic ratios were further studied. The averaged total mixing ratio of VOCs was 12.53×10-9. Among all measured VOC species, alkanes were the most abundant species, which accounted for 65.3% of the total concentrations, followed by alkenes (26.7%) and aromatics (6.5%). In addition, the total OH radical loss rate of VOCs (L·OH) was 5.2 s-1. In particular, the contribution of C4-C5 alkenes to L·OH was as high as 61%, followed by C2-C3 alkenes, with a 12.8% contribution of L·OH. The average ozone formation potential of VOCs was 36.5×10-9. Among all the measured VOC species, alkenes were the most abundant species, which accounted for 71.2%. Among alkenes, the contribution of C4-C5 alkenes was the most prominent. Although the concentration of alkanes in Shangdianzi was much higher than other VOC species, the ozone formation potential was lower. Diagnostic ratios and source implications suggested that Shangdianzi was affected mainly by biomass/biofuel/coal burning, with substantially elevated benzene levels during the observation period, whereas a slight influence of traffic-related emissions was observed.

Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer

This study examined the variability of near-surface (850 hPa) ozone during summer in East Asia using simulations from 12 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of non-detrended ozone shows that the first (second) EOF mode is characterized by a monopole (dipole) structure that describe 83.3% (7.1%) of total variance. The corresponding the first principle component (PC1) time series exhibits a gradually increasing trend due to the rising anthropogenic emission, whereas PC2 shows interannual variation. To understand the drivers of this interannual variability, the detrended ozone is also analyzed. The two leading EOF patterns of detrended ozone, EOF1 and EOF2, explain 37.0% and 29.2% of the total variance, respectively. The regression results indicate that the positive ozone anomaly in East Asia associated with EOF1 is caused by the combination of net ozone production and transport from the upper atmosphere. In contrast, EOF2 is associated with the weakened western Pacific subtropical high during the La Niña decaying summer, which tends to decrease monsoon precipitation, thus increasing ozone concentration in China. Our results suggest that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a key role in driving interannual variability in tropospheric ozone in East Asia.

An analysis of the effects of weather and air pollution on tropospheric ozone using a generalized additive model in Western China: Lanzhou, Gansu

In recent years, near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations have been increasing, which aggravates O3 pollution. Due to the environmental threat it poses to human health, O3 pollution has become a hot topic among researchers. In this paper, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate the complex nonlinear relationships between O3 concentration and the factors influencing O3 concentration from 2013 to 2017 in Lanzhou in Western China. We considered factors such as long-term trend, seasonality at a quarterly interval, and the weekend effect. The results showed that O3 concentration in Lanzhou was affected by many factors, and these influencing factors were correlated with each other. In the single-factor model, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.594, and the total deviance explained of O3 concentration was 62.3%. We detected significantly nonlinear relationships between O3 concentration and the influencing factors like air temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity, and the concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5. In particular, air temperature was the main driving factor for O3 concentration, which explained 24.2% of the variance (F = 350.84). In addition, we built a double-factor model to investigate the interactive influences of these influencing factors on O3 concentration variation. In the fitted double-factor model, R2 was 0.636 and the total deviance explained was 68.1%, both of which were higher (i.e., better performance) than that in the single-factor model. Among these studied influencing factors, the interaction between air temperature and air pollutants showed the greatest influence on O3 concentration variation. The results of this study can be used to assist local environmental authorities to take proactive measures for O3 pollution control in Lanzhou, Gansu.

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

The ozone layer is well observed since the 1930s from the ground and, since the 1980s, by satellite-based instruments. The evolution of ozone in the past is important because of its dramatic influence on the biosphere and humans but has not been known for most of the time, except for some measurements of near-surface ozone since the end of the 19th century. This gap can be filled by either modeling or paleo reconstructions. Here, we address ozone layer evolution during the early 20th century. This period was very interesting due to a simultaneous increase in solar and anthropogenic activity, as well as an observed but not explained substantial global warming. For the study, we exploited the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM driven by all known anthropogenic and natural forcing agents, as well as their combinations. We obtain a significant global scale increase in the total column ozone by up to 12 Dobson Units and an enhancement of about 20% of the near-surface ozone over the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that the total column ozone changes during this period were mainly driven by enhanced solar ultra violet (UV) radiation, while near-surface ozone followed the evolution of anthropogenic ozone precursors. This finding can be used to constrain the solar forcing magnitude.

Petrochemical and Industrial Sources of Volatile Organic Compounds Analyzed via Regional Wind-Driven Network in Shanghai

Due to the development of industrialization and urbanization, secondary pollution is becoming increasingly serious in the Yangtze River Delta. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are key precursors of the near-surface ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and other secondary pollutants. In this study, we chose a serious ozone pollution period (01 May–31 July 2017) in Jinshan, which is a petrochemical and industrial area in Shanghai. We explored the VOCs distribution characteristics and contribution to secondary pollutants via constructing a regional network based on wind patterns. We determined that dense pollutants were accumulated at adjacent sites under local circulation (LC), and pollution from petrochemical discharge was more serious than industry for all sites under southeast (SE) wind. We also found that cyclopentane, o-xylene, m/p-xylene, 1-3-butadiene, and 1-hexene were priority-controlled species as they were most vital to form secondary pollutants. This study proves that regional network analysis can be successfully applied to explore pollution characteristics and regional secondary pollutants formation.

The differing impact of air stagnation on summer ozone across Europe

We have examined the joint impact of daily maximum temperature and air stagnation on observed maximum daily 8-h running average (MDA8) and hourly near-surface ozone (O3) over eight regions of Europe for the summer period 1998–2015. The percentage of stagnant area in a region is a better predictor of summer MDA8 O3 in central/southern Europe (correlation coefficient R = 0.50–0.70) than in the north (R = 0.06–0.39). The correlations of MDA8 O3 with temperature are higher than with stagnation for most regions, and the impact of stagnation on those correlations is region-dependent. MDA8 O3 mixing ratios consistently increase over central/southern Europe under stagnant conditions, but this has not been found for some temperature ranges in the north. Under non-stagnant situations and relatively high temperatures (20–25 °C), southerly advection often brings aged air masses from more polluted areas to the receptor regions in the north. Furthermore, the occurrence of stagnation tends to amplify the ozone diurnal cycles in the center/south of the continent, yielding lower nighttime and higher daytime mixing ratios than on non-stagnant days, again with a less clear effect in the north. Changes in planetary boundary layer height, accumulation of ozone and precursors, and subsequent photochemical production during stagnant days are the presumed underlying mechanisms for the amplification of the diurnal cycles. The results from this study prove that the effects of stagnation on summer ozone are regionally dependent across Europe. Consequently, climate model projections of increases in stagnation should not directly be translated into degraded air quality without a proper assessment of the regional impacts.

Evaluation of MACC Reanalysis Ozone Data over China Using Ground-based and AIRS Satellite Observations

A comparative analysis was conducted using total ozone products derived from monitoring atmospheric composition and climate (MACC) reanalysis data validated with ozone data from the atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) satellite and ground-based ozone measurements. The results indicate that the relative deviation of total ozone from the MACC reanalysis data and the ground-based ozone total data is controlled within 17%, and all of the correlation coefficients were between 0.79 and 0.97. The total ozone values from the MACC reanalysis data showed good consistency with the ground-based ozone measurements. With respect to the spatial distribution of multi-year averages, the relative deviation of total ozone values in the MACC reanalysis data and the AIRS satellite data was between -3% and 5%. The total ozone values in the MACC reanalysis data were higher than those from AIRS measurements for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the coastal areas of South China, and were lower for northeast China. Furthermore, the seasonal variations in total ozone values in the MACC reanalysis data were consistent with AIRS data. At Mt. Waliguan station, the monthly averaged trends for near-surface ozone in the MACC reanalysis data were also consistent with surface ozone concentrations; the MACC reanalysis data reflect the observed trends for surface-based ozone measurements in spring, summer, and autumn, but show a large deviation in winter.

The Role of Air Humidity in Variations in Near-Surface Ozone Concentration

The Role of Air Humidity in Variations in Near-Surface Ozone Concentration

Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission

Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991–2000 and future climate in 2046–2055, projecting around a 2° increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (−30% as EU average). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to −24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050.