Natural Hazard Risk Research Articles

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?

Abstract. Part 1 of this paper has discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. Such deficits may include uncertainties about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions made, say, for risk management, so it is important to examine the sensitivity of such decisions to different feasible sets of assumptions, to communicate the meaning of associated uncertainty estimates, and to provide an audit trail for the analysis. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and the implications of applying the principles to natural hazard assessments are discussed. Six stages are recognized, with recommendations at each stage as follows: (1) framing the analysis, preferably with input from potential users; (2) evaluating the available data for epistemic uncertainties, especially when they might lead to inconsistencies; (3) eliciting information on sources of uncertainty from experts; (4) defining a workflow that will give reliable and accurate results; (5) assessing robustness to uncertainty, including the impact on any decisions that are dependent on the analysis; and (6) communicating the findings and meaning of the analysis to potential users, stakeholders, and decision makers. Visualizations are helpful in conveying the nature of the uncertainty outputs, while recognizing that the deeper epistemic uncertainties might not be readily amenable to visualizations.

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Abstract. This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are currently considered in the most widely occurring natural hazard areas, including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. Our aim is to provide an overview of the types of epistemic uncertainty in the analysis of these natural hazards and to discuss how they have been treated so far to bring out some commonalities and differences. The breadth of our study makes it difficult to go into great detail on each aspect covered here; hence the focus lies on providing an overview and on citing key literature. We find that in current probabilistic approaches to the problem, uncertainties are all too often treated as if, at some fundamental level, they are aleatory in nature. This can be a tempting choice when knowledge of more complex structures is difficult to determine but not acknowledging the epistemic nature of many sources of uncertainty will compromise any risk analysis. We do not imply that probabilistic uncertainty estimation necessarily ignores the epistemic nature of uncertainties in natural hazards; expert elicitation for example can be set within a probabilistic framework to do just that. However, we suggest that the use of simple aleatory distributional models, common in current practice, will underestimate the potential variability in assessing hazards, consequences, and risks. A commonality across all approaches is that every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of the sources of epistemic uncertainty. It is therefore important to record the assumptions made and to evaluate their impact on the uncertainty estimate. Additional guidelines for good practice based on this review are suggested in the companion paper (Part 2).

Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver, Canada

Disaster risk reduction should anticipate how future natural hazard risk would be influenced by changes in urban vulnerability. This paper investigates the effect of one key driver of change, urban development. It models current and future risk for the year 2041 in a rapidly growing urban area, Vancouver, Canada, from both earthquake and coastal flood hazard. Three urban development futures are considered—status quo, compact, and sprawled development—that differ in the housing stock configuration used to accommodate an identical, projected increase in population and dwellings. Results indicate that while exposure is expected to increase substantially in future, the implications for risk vary greatly between hazards and impact types. For earthquake, population increase is attenuated by improvements in the building stock, whereas for flooding, disaster impacts increase at a much higher rate than population growth. Overall, disruption impacts are more sensitive than damage to changes in population and development. The effect of urban development on future risk is not unidirectional, but depends upon hazard type, impact type, and degree of climate change. None of the development futures is consistently best from a risk perspective, but along many dimensions, compact development yields more severe disaster impacts relative to status quo development. The findings underscore the importance of considering natural hazard risk in urban development planning, and of recognizing the inherent differences between hazards and impact types in this planning.

Interpersonal communication sources and natural hazard risk perception: a case study of a rural Chinese village

This exploratory study contributes to our knowledge about the relationships between interpersonal communication sources and risk perception regarding natural hazards. Survey data (N = 186) from a small village in northwest China was used, and the correlations between eight types of interpersonal communication sources related to disaster risk reduction and the perceived severity and perceived likelihood of occurrence of eight types of natural hazards were explored. Past studies have suggested that interpersonal communication sources are more likely to influence individuals in their perceived severity of natural hazards than in their perceived likelihood of occurrence. The results of this study moderately corroborate this finding. The results indicated that different sources have different relationships to risk perception, as positive correlations were found between obtaining information via certain trained science professionals (science teachers, emergency responders, scientific experts) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions, while negative relationships were found between obtaining information via certain personal contacts (other villagers and relatives and friends) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions. However, the strength of these relationships was weak (− 0.197 ≥ r ≤ 0.245). Age showed statically significant correlations with the perceived severity of most of the natural hazards. Studies with more representative samples and controls for theoretical factors are needed to better understand how interpersonal communication sources affect individuals' natural hazard risk perceptions.

Drivers and barriers of adaptation initiatives – How societal transformation affects natural hazard management and risk mitigation in Europe

A key challenge of hazard risk management is finding novel ways to respond to future extremes amid increasing vulnerability. Societal transformation in the context of multi-functional protection schemes offers potential in this regard. However, the drivers and barriers of societal transformation in hazard management are poorly understood. Here we interrogate drivers and barriers of societal transformation in natural hazard management through case studies in Austria, France and Ireland focusing on attempts to integrate multi-functional protection schemes in the context of flood and avalanche hazards. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders connected to proposed transformative strategies in the selected case studies. We find that transformative approaches have been mainly supported by local initiatives instigated by local governments, residents, or NGOs with the aim of complementing conventional hazard management policies. Our analysis shows that local actors and stakeholders often pursue initiatives to address local problems or to seize local opportunities rather than to contribute to a broader societal transformation. According to our findings, key drivers of community-based initiatives with multiple functionality and use include: (i) lack of funding, (ii) lack of legal protection or (iii) lack of space, where classical risk management measures can no longer respond to new circumstances. In contrast, key barriers relate to: (i) lack of local capacities, (ii) lack of local political support and (iii) technological challenges in the implementation phase. These insights support European regions currently working on the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies arising from natural hazards.

Antecedents of Disaster Preparation: What Factors Lead Firms to Prepare for Natural Hazards?

In a largely exploratory study, we investigate: 1) which factors affect how managers identify salient exogenous hazards?, and 2) what are the antecedents of firm preparation for these hazards (e.g., natural disaster risk)? Our analysis is conducted using a two part approach. Both parts are based on an international survey of 575 managers across 18 disaster-prone countries. The first part of the study focuses on examining the factors that affect managers¡¯ identification of natural disaster risk. We find that experience with natural disasters and the locational natural hazard risk where a firm is located significantly affects managers¡¯ identification of firm-specific natural disaster risk as an important firm issue. In the second part we look at the potential antecedents of firm preparedness for exogenous disasters. Our results show that learning and collaborative capabilities are positively related to preparation for natural disasters but self-solving approaches are not. Organizations that expect to go-it-alone are expected to face greater risk in the event of a natural disaster.

Mapping the economic value of landslide regulation by forests

The role of forests in regulating landslide risks is well established but estimates of the economic value of this ecosystem service are limited. In order to incorporate the role of forests for landslide risk mitigation in spatial planning and other decision-making contexts, there is a need for spatially explicit information regarding the value of this service. We develop a methodological framework to combine bio-physical modelling of natural hazard risk and socio-economic exposure in a predictive model to estimate and map of the economic value of forest regulation of landslides. This method is applied in a case study of Adjara Autonomous Republic of Georgia to examine alternative scenarios for forest management and associated land cover change. The approach produces credible spatially explicit results to inform policy decisions regarding investment in forest management; and has the potential for replication in other data scarce regions.

Risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt owing to natural hazards and construction of major projects

The Belt and Road Initiative was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Kazakhstan in 2013 in order to strengthen economic ties, deepen mutual cooperation, and widen the field of development. The Silk Road Economic Belt has cultural connotations of the ancient Silk Road, a regional cooperation strategy between the Asian and African continents. This belt is important for the promotion of the Chinese economy and the development of economic and trade cooperation between China and countries located along the route. However, the Silk Road Economic Belt passes through the harshest geographical and climatic conditions in the world. The region contains complex geological structures, and is characterized by frequent earthquake activity, large differences in terrain elevation, poor engineering geological conditions, as well as intensive rainfall caused by a monsoon climate. As a result, different kinds of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, geo-hazards, floods, droughts, and dammed lakes, seriously hinder in-depth cooperation and communication between countries located along the Silk Road Economic Belt. This paper presents research on the Silk Road Economic Belt. Primary and secondary natural hazards related to geological events and climate change, such as earthquakes, climatic hazards, and geo-hazards triggered by earthquakes and extreme climatic changes, are analyzed. According to the inventory map of earthquakes, droughts, and geo-hazards, the earthquake-prone areas in this region include Central and Western Asia, the Sino-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Sino-Mongol-Russia Junction Belt, and the New Euro-Asian Continental Bridge. The flood-prone region is located mainly in Southeastern Asia, in countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, while the drought-prone region is located primarily in Inner Asia. The region most susceptible to geo-hazards is the mountainous area around the Tibet Plateau. The tendency of frequent natural hazards to develop and their effects on major projects along the Silk Road Economic Belt are discussed in detail. The results show that seismic activity is likely to be high until approximately 2050 and will become relatively quiescent in the second half of the 21st century. Precipitation will increase by 2%–3% until 2020, and by 5%–7% until 2050. Three high-frequency snow hazard regions are formed, including the central area of Inner Mongolia, the northern region of the Xinjiang Tianshan Range, and the Northeastern Tibet Plateau. Although the inter-annual variability of snow hazards changes significantly, the general trend shows an increase. Drought hazards have become more severe in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and have expanded in recent years due to global climate change and other factors. Secondary natural hazards have increased due to the rise in earthquake activity and extreme climatic changes. Strategies for disaster mitigation and natural hazards risk analysis are proposed for major projects such as high-speed railways, oil and gas pipelines, and water and electricity infrastructure. In order to reduce the risk of natural hazards and major construction, six countermeasures are proposed: (1) to perform detailed field investigations and build a database of hazards and related data, including climatic, hydrological, topographical, and geological settings; (2) to integrate engineering protection techniques against natural hazards and develop new mitigation techniques; (3) to develop a space-, sky-, and earth-based real-time monitoring and early warning system; and (4) to comprehensively assess the risk of natural hazards and major project construction. In addition, we face five key scientific and administration challenges regarding the safety of major project construction along the Silk Road Economic Belt: (1) formation mechanisms of large-scale natural hazards; (2) trend and forecast of natural hazards along the Silk Road Economic Belt in the context of climatic change; (3) dynamic and quantitative risk assessment of mega-hazards triggered by the coupling of endogenic and exogenic forces; (4) key techniques and an integrated system for risk reduction for major projects; and (5) coordination mechanism for information sharing and mitigation against mega-hazards among multiple countries.

Governing green change: Ecosystem-based measures for reducing landslide risk in Rio de Janeiro

Ecosystem-based approaches are increasingly considered to reduce disaster risks (Eco-DRR) and adapt to climate change (EbA). Their consideration in some of the main global frameworks such as the IPCC report or the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction has raised additional attention. However, these approaches are still more associated with rural than urban areas, although many urban areas face a high risk of natural hazards and the benefits of ecosystem-based measures to reduce it have already been proven in different cities.A successful implementation of ecosystem-based approaches in urban areas is highly complex. Using the city of Rio de Janeiro as case study, we first examine on the municipality level the responsibilities of the different institutions involved in landslide risk reduction and their technical and organizational interfaces. In a second step we zoom into two marginal settlements to determine whether ecosystem-based measures for landslide risk reduction already exist and assess the potential to either implement or further increase their application. These so-called favelas are often constructed on or beneath steep and degraded slopes prone to landslides. Landslides are mainly triggered by heavy rainfall events which are likely to increase in the future due to the impacts of global climate change. Activities to reduce landslide risk are distributed between many different actors, such as civil defense, geological survey, urban planning, and environmental management, and the measures taken are predominantly engineered approaches with a focus on preparedness and response. The urban reforestation program which could provide additional ecosystem benefits is not yet aligned enough with risk reduction and faces several challenges. In addition, the consideration of informal settings in formal urban planning and management strategies can still be improved.Based on quantitative and qualitative data from interviews and secondary sources, site visits, and expert interviews with representatives from public authorities and other stakeholders, the research assesses the individual institutional approaches as well as the overall urban governance system with regard to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The potential governance challenges for fostering ecosystem-based approaches are analyzed and clustered to provide an insight on paths that could facilitate the future consideration of Eco-DRR/EbA in Rio de Janeiro and beyond.

Resilience to natural hazards: An analysis of territorial governance in the Nordic countries

Institutional arrangements at work in the governance of natural hazard risks in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden are reviewed and analyzed against the territorial governance conceptual framework. The review and analysis are based on information gathered through literature, an expert online survey, interviews and a one and a half-day workshop. The Nordic countries share certain governance characteristics, such as a welfare state legacy, promotion of transparency, and the inclination to bottom-up and polycentric governance approaches. In this context, it is no surprise that seemingly the institutional arrangements for natural hazard management are formed along similar lines. However, the hazard landscape is diverse and legislation and acquired governance practices in each country reflect these differences, particularly in the production of knowledge about the hazards. Nordic governance regimes and regulations combine broadly defined responsibilities with detailed requirements and distributed authority across sectors. Yet, a closer look at some of the territorial preconditions reveals some interesting differences that influence DRM and societal resilience.

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf ) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.

A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

Barriers towards hotel disaster preparedness: Case studies of post 2011 Tsunami, Japan

For many coastal destinations, its geography provides a variety of intrinsic resources that serve as the foundation of its tourism industry, while simultaneously exposing the area to natural hazard risks. Although literature in the fields of tourism and disaster management have identified the accommodation industry's potential in contributing towards disaster preparedness, very few hotels were designated as evacuation buildings during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Utilizing a mixed methodology of surveys and interviews, this research investigated the state of disaster management collaboration between local governments and hotels. Three Japanese cities were selected due to similar population sizes, presence of a tourism economy, and a history of tsunami vulnerability. Interviews revealed a number of common barriers hotels faced in adopting disaster preparedness initiatives, such as evacuation training, maintaining emergency supplies, and communicating hazard risks to tourists. The presence of a destination marketing organization in one city, contributed towards improved collaboration between the public and private sectors, allowing stakeholders to overcome some of the financial, knowledge, and human resource limitations facing them.

Risk communication for new and emerging communities: The contingent role of social capital

This study examines the role of social connectedness, or ‘social capital’, in mediating the dissemination and interpretation of natural hazards risk information for new migrant communities in South Australia, who have English as a second language. Using a focus-group methodology, analysis shows that intra-group networking, or so called ‘bonding’ social capital, is key to accessing and making sense of risk information. Settlement agencies and education providers were considered vital in helping new migrant communities check their understanding of risk messages originally sourced from mainstream media. Conversely, analysis shows that not all new migrant community members have access to positive social networks. The effective provision of natural disaster and natural hazards risk information can enhance community resilience and ameliorate social vulnerability, yet for some new migrant communities, salient and targeted messaging that addresses their discrete cultural and communication needs is not assessable, or available. We contend that an interactive, dialogic approach to developing and disseminating risk messages is required, which will go part way to reducing social disparities in natural hazards and disaster preparedness.

Risk modelling as a tool to support natural hazard risk management in New Zealand local government

Due to New Zealand's exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is important for local government to have tools that enable effective use of its natural hazard risk information. This paper explores the use of risk modelling as a tool that can support local government to better understand, manage, and communicate natural hazard risk. Focus group sessions were held with emergency management and other natural hazard practitioners in councils across New Zealand to understand their perceptions on the value of risk modelling tools, particularly ‘RiskScape'. While practitioners see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication, decision making, planning and emergency response purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. Underlying these challenges is the recognition that while risk modelling can help span the science-policy interface, it is the problems with this interface that slow its development. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform natural hazard policy and procedure.

Community vulnerability to coastal hazards: Developing a typology for disaster risk reduction

Coastal communities around the world face challenges in planning for coastal flooding and sea-level rise related to climate change. This paper develops an approach for identifying typologies of communities on the basis of their hazard vulnerability characteristics. The approach first characterizes communities with a suite of vulnerability indicators, selected to meet criteria of breadth, relevance, and data requirements. Cluster analysis is then applied to the indicator profiles to identify groups of similar communities. The statistical centrotype of each group represents the corresponding community type. A new community from outside the original set can then be matched to the typology using a Hazard Vulnerability Similarity Index (HVSI). The approach is demonstrated with a case study of 50 communities on Canada's Pacific coast. Results yielded 10 community types, of which four were predominant. The types range from highly urbanized, wealthier, diverse central cities to remote, resource-dependent towns with semi-developed, flat coastlines. Three selected communities from a distant region, in Atlantic Canada, were then successfully matched to the most similar of these 10 types. Identifying groups of communities that share vulnerability profiles can facilitate sharing knowledge, lessons, and resources that are most relevant to local efforts to reduce natural hazard risk. This support may be especially valuable for connecting communities that are unfamiliar with one another, yet similarly vulnerable.

An analysis of Community Based Flood Early Warning System in the State of Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Abstract Azad Jammu and Kashmir is vulnerable to frequent risk of natural hazards. Flash floods remain the highest potential threat to communities in the area particularly during monsoon. This research studies investigate indigenous practices and methodologies adopted to mitigate flooding while to work out a feasible techniques for establishing a community based early warning system for flash flooding. For this purpose primary data was collected through a design questioner cluster survey by conducting FGDs at 55 flash flooding prone nullahs (streams) of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Results obtained from primary data analysis through survey infers very high frequency of flash flooding in the year (nearly annual basis), which is attributed to seasonal variation in the area. For early warning system community suggested local capacities (loud, speakers, mobile network, and community religious centers) for dissemination of early warning to the community. Majority of the respondents advocated that the recommended early warning system to be installed at village mosque located at the central position of each community to ensure maximum effectiveness of the system. Alarm (siren), mobile SMS are the other options for the dissemination of early warning system.

Development of Human Vulnerability 2012–2017

Vulnerability defined as the predisposition to be negatively affected, often decide whether hazards and extreme natural events can lead to disasters or severe suffering or not. The WorldRiskIndex (WRI) is an approach to assess exposure, vulnerability and risk patterns at the global scale and it is based on national scale resolution data. The new results of the WRI 2017 and the analysis of the development trends of vulnerability between 2012 to 2017 show that risk of natural hazards and climate change is particularly high in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean as well as Central America. Also, the impacts of extreme weather events, such as Taifun Haiyan in 2013 that hit the Philippines and Vietnam revealed that vulnerable communities suffer most. The event caused more than 6,000 fatalities. However, also sea level rise as considered in the WRI can be seen as an extreme event even though it is a rather creeping process in many world regions. The analysis of the development of vulnerability, namely the examination of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacities between 2012 and 2017 reveals interesting differences. While at the global or international level, we can observe a reduction in vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change, there are significant differences at the regional scale. While the vulnerability in Asia is showing also a reduction in susceptibility and an increasing capacity to cope and to adapt, the world region Oceania shows a different trend. In Oceania, we found that some countries showed an increasing vulnerability and that the overall world region is characterized by a constant and even slightly increasing vulnerability level, in contrast to other world regions which mainly show significant improvements. Also, the high persistence of vulnerability in various countries in Africa — that show progress but often too little — suggests that it is likely that these countries might not be able to effectively reduce risks solely on their own. Adaptation policies and risk reduction strategies need to address these differential development trends of vulnerability at regional scale in order to provide a context for effective risk reduction at national and local levels. The results can also inform the Global Stock take for adaptation policies.

Permeability of Granite Including Macro-Fracture Naturally Filled with Fine-Grained Minerals

Information on the permeability of rock is essential for various geoengineering projects, such as geological disposal of radioactive wastes, hydrocarbon extraction, and natural hazard risk mitigation. It is especially important to investigate how fractures and pores influence the physical and transport properties of rock. Infiltration of groundwater through the damage zone fills fractures in granite with fine-grained minerals. However, the permeability of rock possessing a fracture naturally filled with fine-grained mineral grains has yet to be investigated. In this study, the permeabilities of granite samples, including a macro-fracture filled with clay and a mineral vein, are investigated. The permeability of granite with a fine-grained mineral vein agrees well with that of the intact sample, whereas the permeability of granite possessing a macro-fracture filled with clay is lower than that of the macro-fractured sample. The decrease in the permeability is due to the filling of fine-grained minerals and clay in the macro-fracture. It is concluded that the permeability of granite increases due to the existence of the fractures, but decreases upon filling them with fine-grained minerals.