Hydraulic fracturing has become a key technology for the development of unconventional oil and gas resources, such as deep shale. Due to the development of natural fractures in deep shale reservoirs, the opening of natural fractures during the fracturing process can cause a significant loss of fracturing fluid, resulting in a reduction in the width of the main fracture and construction risks, such as sand plugging. It is important to improve the fracturing effect of deep shale reservoirs by plugging natural fractures with solid phases, reducing filtration, and improving the efficiency of the fracturing fluid. Ensuring the effectiveness of solid plugging is key to optimizing the fracturing design and improving the stimulation effect after fracturing. In this study, solid plugging technology is introduced into the filtration control process of natural fractures. By setting a plugging zone with a certain length and permeability inside the natural fracture, a stability prediction model for the plugging zone of natural fractures is established, and the instability conditions of the plugging zone are analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the instability of the plugging zone is related to permeability and there is a critical permeability. When the permeability of the plugging zone is greater than this value, expansion instability will occur, and when it is less than or equal to this value, shear slip instability may occur. The strength of shear slip instability is mainly determined by the length of the plugging zone, the friction angle of the natural fracture surface, the friction angle between the plugging particles, and the porosity of the plugging zone. The friction angle of natural fracture surfaces affects only the strength of slip instability, while the friction angle of plugging particles and porosity mainly affect the strength of shear instability. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the optimization of fracturing construction parameters in deep shale reservoirs.