National Emissions Research Articles

Role of Economic Expansion, Energy Utilization and Urbanization on Climate Change in Egypt based on Artificial Intelligence

This study employs machine-learning algorithms (ML), specifically Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB), to assess the impact of various factors, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, and energy consumption, on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2). The research underscores the RF algorithm's superior accuracy in determining independent variables' influence on CO2 emissions compared to GB. Furthermore, the study reveals that natural gas is the most significant contributor to CO2 emissions in Egypt, accounting for 49.7% of the total, followed closely by oil at 46.7%. The effect of other variables on CO2 emissions is relatively minimal. The findings also establish a strong positive correlation between the consumption of natural gas, oil, and coal and CO2 emissions in Egypt. Additionally, a negative relationship is observed between GDP growth, suggesting a positive trend in environmentally friendly economic expansion and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Egypt. This unique scenario, where urban expansion appears to have an inverse relationship with CO2 emissions, sets Egypt apart from many other countries and signifies a favorable environmental outcome.

The Influence of Natural Resources, Energy Consumption, and Renewable Energy on Economic Growth in ASEAN Region Countries

This research aims to identify and analyze the role of natural resources, CO2 emissions, and renewable energy on the economic growth of countries in the ASEAN region. In this study, we tested whether a dynamic process occurred based on a dynamic panel data model while comparing it with static panel data. The dataset used is ASEAN region countries with time series data from 2000-2021. The analysis tools used are static and dynamic panel data. The research results found that natural resources, FDI, and renewable energy significantly positively affect economic growth in the ASEAN region. Conversely, CO2 has a negative and insignificant effect. These results prove that the ASEAN region's economic development has been clean energy-oriented.

Simulation studies of pollutant emissions from road vehicles using models for inventories of pollutant emissions

Countries are obliged by international regulations to conduct annual pollutant emissions inventories. Road transport is one of the sectors for which an inventory of pollutant emissions is carried out. Determining pollutant emissions from road transport is possible only by modeling these emissions – that is why unified emission models are used. In this work, the COPERT and HBEFA INFRAS software are used to determine pollutant emissions characteristics for various vehicle traffic models. The article presents the principles of modeling pollutant emissions from road vehicles. The rules for qualifying road vehicles into elementary and cumulative categories have been systematized. Models of road vehicle traffic and ways of taking them into account in modeling pollutant emissions are presented. The following emissions of pollutants harmful to the health and life of living organisms are considered: carbon monoxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides and total suspended particles. The trends of the national annual emissions of the tested pollutants in the years 2000 – 2020 and the results of simulation tests of pollutant emissions models are presented.

A machine learning approach to analysis of Canadian provincial power system decarbonization

Canada committed to reducing national greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45 % by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050, relying on low-carbon electrification across economic sectors. This study investigates the machine learning’s potential to analyze least-cost optimization of Canadian provincial power systems to 2050, to identify robust pathways for net-zero electricity system greenhouse gas emissions, and to provide policy insights respecting wind and solar generation, reducing emissions from natural gas generation, and expanding interprovincial transmission. Surrogate modeling is applied as sensitivities to generation technology capital costs, electricity demand, and carbon pricing to results from an existing capacity expansion mixed-integer linear optimization model. Under almost all future scenarios, six provinces develop new wind generation, with substantial deployment in Alberta (mean 27.3 GW, max. 62.7 GW), Ontario (mean 6.8 GW, max. 19.3 GW), Saskatchewan (mean 3.6 GW, max 8.9 GW) and Manitoba (mean 1.5 GW, max 3.5 GW). With the potential exception of BC, where higher-cost wind generation results in solar generation becoming the primary low-carbon electrical energy source (mean 25.2 GW), future solar generation across Canada is more limited (mean 37.1 GW) and less certain than wind generation in all other Canadian provinces. Existing natural gas generation is maintained in almost all scenarios in all provinces, providing support for maintaining these resources for reliability and reserve requirements. Very limited natural gas is developed under any scenarios, with the exception of British Columbia (mean 4.3 GW) where more than 80 % of scenarios include new natural gas capacity. Additional transmission transfer capacity is developed in most scenarios between BC-Alberta (∼60 % of scenarios), Saskatchewan-Manitoba (∼85 %), and Ontario-Quebec (∼75 %). Carbon prices, along with wind and solar capital costs, act as primary determinants of least-cost decarbonization pathways. These findings offer insights for Canadian policymakers into net-zero pathways for provincial electricity systems that remain robust despite variability in inputs.

Qualitative evaluation of nine agricultural methods for increasing soil carbon storage in Norway

AbstractCarbon content is a key property of soils with importance for all ecosystem functions. Measures to increase soil carbon storage are suggested with the aim to compensate for agricultural emissions. In Norway, where soils have relatively high carbon content because of the cold climate, adapting management practices that prevent the loss of carbon to the atmosphere in response to climate change is also important. This work presents an overview of the potential for carbon sequestration in Norway from a wide range of agricultural management practices and provides recommendations based on certainty in the reported potential, availability of the technology, and likelihood for implementation by farmers. In light of the high priority assigned to increased food production and degree of self‐sufficiency in Norway, the following measures were considered: (1) utilization of organic resources, (2) use of biochar, (3) crop diversification and the use of cover crops, (4) use of plants with larger and deeper root systems, (5) improved management of meadows, (6) adaptive grazing of productive grasslands (7) managing grazing in extensive grasslands, (8) altered tillage practices, and (9) inversion of cultivated peat with mineral soil. From the options assessed, the use of cover crops scored well on all criteria evaluated, with a higher sequestration potential than previously estimated (0.2 Mt CO2‐equivalents annually). Biochar has the largest potential in Norway (0.9 Mt CO2‐equivalents annually, corresponding to 20% of Norwegian agricultural emissions and 2% of total national emissions), but its readiness level is not yet achieved despite interest from industry to apply this technology at large scale. Extensive grazing and the use of deep‐rooted plants also have the potential for increasing carbon storage, but there is uncertainty regarding their implementation and the quantification of effects from adapting these measures. Based on the complexities of implementation and the expected impacts within a Norwegian context, promising options with substantial payoff are few. This work sheds light on the knowledge gaps remaining before the presented measures can be implemented.

Evaluating the efficiency of indigenous soil bacterial strains for heavy metal removal

Significant quantities of toxic heavy metals are regularly deposited into soil environments every day as a result of industrial and human activities, as well as natural emissions. Today, biological methods for reducing heavy metal pollution are becoming increasingly common as an innovative approach to combating heavy metal pollution. The purpose of this study was to identify soil bacteria capable of removing heavy metals and to explore the potential of native bacteria in the bioremediation process. During this experiment, various soil samples were collected from several sites (river bank Rvs1, bus station Bt2, agricultural site Ag3, landfill Gr4 and construction site Cn5). Five bacterial strains were isolated from soil samples using a conventional serial plate dilution method. Morphologically distinct colonies were selected and purified during incubation. Pure cultures of bacterial colonies were established and maintained as slant cultures. Depending on preliminary physical, chemical and morphological characteristics, isolates RvsS1, Bt2, Ag3, Gr4 and Cn5 were compared with the bacterial species: “Proteus”, “Staphylococcus”, “Pseudomonas”, “Bacilli” and “Klebsiella” respectively. Bacterial isolates were examined for their uptake of Cu, Cd and Pb in flask bioreactors. Strains RV1, Bt2, Ag3 and Gr4 removed 48.7%, 25.6%, 59.8% and 23.5% of lead, respectively. The removal efficiency of isolate Cn5 was 35.68% for lead and 48.53% for copper. Thus, the data demonstrate that the use of indigenous bacteria is potentially effective in the bioremediation of heavy metals. Keywords: BIOREMEDIATION, MICROORGANISMS, HEAVY METALS, LOCAL BACTERIA, ISOLATES, STRAINS, ABSORPTION

Carbon Option Product Design and Pricing Study

In the context of the "dual-carbon" vision strategy and the development of carbon finance, the development of China's carbon market is very promising, but the system of carbon futures, carbon options and other financial products has not yet been formed. In view of the experience of the European Climate Exchange (ECX) in carbon option contracts, this study aims to design an option product applicable to the Chinese carbon market. The article takes the carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market as the underlying asset of the options, selects the national carbon emission allowance trading price data for the period from July 16, 2021 to December 31, 2022, and uses the EGARCH-fractional Brownian Motion option pricing model to formulate a reasonable call price of the carbon options.

IMPACT OF FOREST FIRES ON PORTUGUESE FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND ITS NATIONAL EMISSIONS BUDGET

The study highlights the significance of the forestry industry in Portugal, and delves into the economic, social, and environmental ramifications of forest fires on this vital sector. With a specialization in forest services, the country's healthy and sustained growth is heavily reliant on this sector. The study is a literature review analysis of carbon sink-source relationships and related uncertainty in the Portuguese forest ecosystem. We found wide literature research that Portugal lost 4% of its total tree cover due to forest fires in 2016-2017. The study concludes that the drought and forest fires suffered by the country throughout the years have had a considerable impact on the national emissions budget. Forest fires have wielded a significant impact on the nation's overall carbon emissions, representing 10% during the years with the highest incidence and averaging 2.7% over 25 years. Prior to 2014, the country was making significant progress towards achieving its National Plan on Climate Change (PNAC) 2020 reduction target, with emissions projected to fall between 18-23% below 2005 levels. These factors are putting country in a non-compliance position with the PNAC 2020 commitment target (which is the same target as for the Kyoto Protocol 2nd Commitment Period).

Comprehensive analysis of long-term trends, meteorological influences, and ozone formation sensitivity in the Jakarta Greater Area

Jakarta Greater Area (JGA) has encountered recurrent challenges of air pollution, notably, high ozone levels. We investigate the trends of surface ozone (O3) changes from the air quality monitoring stations and resolve the contribution of meteorological drivers in urban Jakarta (2010–2019) and rural Bogor sites (2017–2019) using stepwise Multi Linear Regression. During 10 years of measurement, 41% of 1-h O3 concentrations exceeded Indonesia’ s national threshold in Jakarta. In Bogor, 0.1% surpassed the threshold during 3 years of available data records. The monthly average of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O3 anomalies exhibited a downward trend at Jakarta sites while increasing at the rural site of Bogor. Meteorological and anthropogenic drivers contribute 30% and 70%, respectively, to the interannual O3 anomalies in Jakarta. Ozone formation sensitivity with satellite demonstrates that a slight decrease in NO2 and an increase in HCHO contributed to declining O3 in Jakarta with 10 years average of HCHO to NO2 ratio (FNR) of 3.7. Conversely, O3 increases in rural areas with a higher FNR of 4.4, likely due to the contribution from the natural emission of O3 precursors and the influence of meteorological factors that magnify the concentration.

Chemical and olfactometric inventory of gaseous spot vents in Mt. Amiata volcanic-geothermal area (Italy)

Geothermal areas are typically characterised by the presence of gases and odours in the background atmosphere, stemming from natural emissions and possible mining exploitation of the area. This study presents the first olfactometric investigation of endogenous gas emissions from natural and archaeo-industrial vents in a geothermal area. Mt. Amiata is known for its complex geology and historical cinnabar mining. This study offers an inventory of spot gas emissions, not only in terms of odour and chemical concentration but also including flux data, a ground-breaking achievement in this field. The primary challenge of this investigation was estimating the emitted flow from ground holes or mine entrances, posing the risk of hazardous anoxic conditions. To address this challenge, an innovative and adaptive approach was adopted. The main breakthrough method involved the adaptation of a balometer, typically employed for indoor ventilation systems, to measure the flow of endogenous gases. Field surveys revealed odour concentrations that can exceed 106 of ouE/m3, surpassing industrial emission level considerably. Chemical concentrations, primarily consisted of CO2 (80/90 %v/v) and CH4 (∼10%v/v), providing critical insights into the global warming potential (GWP) associated with natural emissions. Moreover, these spots, often located at ground level and lacking a substantial atmospheric dilution, pose potential risks to nearby individuals, with concentrations of gases such as H2S surpassing safety thresholds. Total emissive flux of the investigated spot vents in the Mt. Amiata area, showed that the emission rate of H2S is notably substantial (55 kg/h), roughly equivalent to emissions from approximately four 20 MW geothermal plants, as along with odour emission rates in the order of 107 ouE/s. Considering the GWP derived from emitted gases, the total inventory assessment of the spot vents resulted in 36 t/h or 23 t/h CO2eq, depending on the time horizon considered (GWP20 or GWP100 respectively).

Unveiling the potential of perovskite solar systems in building integrated installations: A consequential and prospective life cycle assessment and economic analysis

This paper addresses an integrated economic and environmental assessment where a consequential and prospective life cycle approach is applied to perovskite (PSK) building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Two configurations are considered: slanted roof (r-BIPV) installations, and the fenestration of façades (f-BIPV). Concerning r-BIPV, PSK systems are expected to compete with crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules; whereas a glass façade is chosen as an alternative reference for f-BIPV. Assuming economic rationality as the main criteria for the adoption of technologies, a deployment time for the PSK system is estimated and the economic and environmental advantages in the Italian context are evaluated. This assessment is based on three foreground scenarios addressing the gradual development of PSK systems. The results show that while c-Si modules are preferred in the market of r-BIPV systems, PSK modules will find space in f-BIPV applications. Depending on the selected scenario, the economic benefits accumulated by Italian energy users are assessed between −0.5 % and −10.3 %. On the other hand, PSK systems imply a variation of the national GHGs emissions that ranges between + 0.01 % and −7.5 %. Depending on the scenario, the PSK-based f-BIPV systems can provide either environmental benefits (i.e., cumulative energy demand) or burdens (i.e., ecotoxicity indicators).

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF EURO 4 DIESEL-POWERED ENGINE JEEPNEYS ON AIR QUALITY AND UNDERSTANDING ESTIMATED HEALTH RISK TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION

Abstract. The Euro-4 diesel-powered engines are the current industry standard in the Philippines as indicated in the Public Utility Vehicle Modernization Program (PUVMP) Omnibus Guidelines Department Order 2017-011. Based on the National Emissions Inventory report of the Environmental Management Bureau in 2018, 74% of air pollutant concentrations were produced by mobile sources including jeepneys. The PUVMP is focused on enhancing environmental sustainability, air quality, and in providing a reliable and effective public transportation system. The potential advantages to air quality and health from the full implementation of the program especially the Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys in Trece Martires City are assessed in this paper. The study aims to estimate the impact of the possible enforcement of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys on the reduction of air pollution in the research locale. Four pollutants were assessed particularly Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxide (NOx), Sulfur Oxide (SOx) and Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) using AERMOD Air Dispersion Modeling Software in five (5) different scenarios: (1) baseline engine jeepneys, (2) 25% implementation of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys, (3) 50% implementation of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepney, (4) 75% implementation of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys and (5) full implementation of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys. AirQ+ was utilized to evaluate the health risk of Euro 4 diesel-powered engine jeepneys to the drivers and commuters in the vicinity. Result shows that the Scenario 5 or the full implementation of Euro 4 diesel-powered engines relatively reduces CO by 84.30% (8.355 μg/cu.m to 1.31 μg/cu.m), NOx by 21.76% (10.6 μg/cu.m to 8.27 μg/cu.m), and PM2.5 by 83.36% (2.69 μg/cu.m to 0.447 μg/cu.m), by its maximum estimated concentrations. However, an increase by 14.14% of SOx emissions (0.091 μg/cu.m to 0.104 μg/cu.m) were seen on the simulation from Scenario 1 to Scenario 5. In terms of health risk assessment, higher levels of PM2.5 exposure exhibit an increase in health hazard with respect to mortality rate. Simulation outputs indicate that transitioning of jeepneys from current technology to Euro 4 models reduces pollution levels and lowers health risk, hence, can be used as basis in enhancing transport plans and health monitoring strategies in the city.

Pressure-triggered intense natural white emission via controllable distortions of antimony chloride dimers

Zero-dimensional (0D) hybrid metal halides (HMHs), featured with unique self-trapped exciton (STE) emissions, are emerging photoluminescence (PL) materials for photoelectronic applications. Compared with metal-halogen monomers, dimeric units in 0D HMHs possess more structural flexibility and less spatial confinement of excitons, creating new opportunities for PL engineering. Herein, high pressure is employed on 0D (C3H12N2)2Sb2Cl10 to controllably distort inter- and intra-octahedral structures within [Sb2Cl10]4− dimers. Intense natural white emission is achieved with dramatically increased photoluminescence quantum yield from less than ≈1% to 74.2 %. The high-pressure emission of (C3H12N2)2Sb2Cl10 is proven to originate from the STE recombination from triplet states with varied emission equilibrium, as well as the promoted excitonic trapping with restrained nonradiative recombination. This work offers valuable insights into the structure effects on STE emission and the transition mechanisms of metal-halogen dimers, which are crucial for developing novel metal halides for illumination.

County land use carbon emission and scenario prediction in Mianyang Science and Technology City New District, Sichuan Province, China

The role of carbon emissions resulting from land use change in the compilation of national greenhouse gas emission inventories is of paramount significance. This study is centered on the Mianyang Science and Technology City New Area located in Sichuan Province, China. We used the CLUE-S model and Sentinel-2A remote sensing data from 2017 to simulate and validate land use changes in 2022. Based on this validation, we established three simulation scenarios: a baseline scenario, an agricultural development scenario, and a construction development scenario. Using remote sensing data from 2022, we projected the land use for 2030. We also used CO2 concentration data collected in 2022 and 2023, processed the data using ArcGIS and Python, and conducted a quantitative analysis of carbon emissions under each scenario. Ultimately, the accuracy of both measured and predicted CO2 values for 2023 was juxtaposed and authenticated, thus concluding the investigative cycle of this study. Key findings include: (1) The accuracy of the CLUE-S model in the study area was assessed using overall accuracy, quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement indexes. In 2022, the overall accuracy is 98.19%, the quantity disagreement is 1.7%, and the allocation disagreement is 2.2%. (2) Distinct land resource utilization characteristics in scenarios, highlighting potential impacts on economic development and pollution. (3) Increased carbon emissions across scenarios, with construction development showing the highest rise (4.170%) and agricultural development the lowest (0.766%). (4) The predictive accuracy of the validation group's CO2 concentration values can reach 99.5%. This study proposes precise CO2 prediction at the county level, thus laying the groundwork for future research endeavors. Such findings are indispensable for informing carbon policy formulation and promoting low-carbon development strategies.

Impact of greening trends on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in China from 1985 to 2022: Contributions of afforestation projects

The rapid expansion of green areas in China has enhanced carbon sinks, but it also presents challenges regarding increased biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. This study examines the impact of greening trends on BVOC emissions in China from 1985 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2022, focusing on evaluating long-term trends in BVOC emissions within eight afforestation project areas during these two periods. Emission factors for 62 dominant tree species and provincial Plant Functional Types were updated. The BVOC emission inventories were developed for China at a spatial resolution of 27 km × 27 km using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The national BVOC emissions in 2018 were estimated at 54.24 Tg, with isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes, and other BVOC contributing 26.94 Tg, 2.29 Tg, 0.44 Tg, and 24.57 Tg, respectively. Over the past 37 years, BVOC emissions experienced a slow growth rate of 1.7 % (0.79 Tg) during 1985–2001, followed by a significant increase of 12 % (6 Tg) from 2001 to 2022. BVOC emissions in the eight afforestation project areas increased by 2 % and 20 % during the two periods. From 2001 to 2022, at the regional scale, the Shelterbelt program for the middle reaches of the Yellow River area exhibited the largest rate of increase (43 %) in BVOC emissions. The Shelterbelt program for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River made the most largest contribution (45 %) to the national increase in BVOC emissions. Afforestation projects have shifted towards planting more broadleaf trees than needleleaf trees from 2001 to 2022, and there also showed a change from herbaceous plants to broadleaf trees. These trends have led to higher average emission factors for vegetation, resulting in increased BVOC emissions. It underscores the importance of considering BVOC emissions when evaluating afforestation initiatives, emphasizing the need to balancing ecological benefits with potential atmospheric consequences.

Can China Reach Its Carbon Peak Before 2030? An Empirical Study Based on China's Carbon Emission Data

The global surge in the warming trend is predominantly attributed to the substantial release of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide. Despite continuous international efforts to curb these emissions, our country, marked by the largest population and energy consumption, stands as a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Unlike developed nations, we face a more formidable challenge in reducing emissions, demanding intensified endeavors. To address climate change, our nation has set a crucial carbon emission target: achieving a carbon peak before 2030 and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. The "14th Five-Year Plan" of each province underscores the significance of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality," tailoring emission reduction policies to individual economic landscapes. Current research inadequacies hinder theoretical guidance needed to meet the 2030 carbon peak. Crafting province-specific emission reduction strategies is thus imperative. This study aims to scrutinize national and regional carbon dioxide emissions in four distinct Chinese regions, utilizing the STIRPAT model to predict emissions from 2020 to 2030 under the "low development and strong low carbon" paradigm. Initial analysis from 2004 to 2019 showed an annual increase in national and provincial carbon dioxide emissions, revealing significant regional differences. Six prominent factors influencing emissions were identified. The STIRPAT model predicted emissions for 2020 to 2030, indicating that achieving carbon peaking before 2030 is unfeasible under the baseline scenario. However, within the "low development and strong low carbon" framework, attaining this goal becomes plausible.

Effect Analysis of China's Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy on Carbon Emission Control

Many countries have achieved a fundamental consensus to decrease carbon dioxide emissions in order to address environmental and climate issues. China, as the foremost energy consumer and carbon emitter globally, has significantly contributed to the exacerbation of greenhouse gas issues. The most effective method for lowering carbon emissions is through the trade of carbon emissions. In 2011, China began the process of implementing pilot projects for pricing carbon emissions as a means of addressing environmental and climate-related issues. This study use the literature review approach to examine the current state of China's carbon emission trading pilot policies on carbon emission management. It also analyzes the technical and economic impacts of these pilot policies in comparison to non-pilot carbon emission trading policies. The objective of this study is to propose recommendations for the implementation of the national carbon emission trading market in 2021.

Investigating the impact of control strategies on the sulfur dioxide emissions of South Korean industrial facilities using an aircraft mass balance approach

We present top-down SO2 emission estimates from four large point sources, including two power plants, a steel mill, and a petrochemical industrial facility in Taean, South Korea. The airborne observations were conducted over two years, with three intensive observations in Fall 2019, Fall 2020, and Spring 2021. During this period, an active policy implementation to reduce air pollutant emissions from large industrial point sources in the region had been exercised, in addition to activity disruptions from the global COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the observed SO2 emission reduction over the time period resulting from the policy implementation. The Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS) datasets from the coal power plants were 1) validated by comparing them with emissions calculated using a top-down airborne mass balance method and 2) compared with the annual bottom-up national SO2 emission inventory. The comparisons illustrate that the policy implementation resulted in a 35% reduction in SO2 emissions from increased implementation of SO2 reduction technologies such as scrubbers. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause a meaningful disruption in SO2 emissions from industrial sectors, such as steel mills and petrochemical manufacturing facilities.

Domestic and international aviation emission inventories for the UNFCCC parties

Global aviation emissions have been growing despite international efforts to limit climate change. Quantifying the status quo of domestic and international aviation emissions is necessary for establishing an understanding of current emissions and their mitigation. Yet, a majority of the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC)-ratifying parties have infrequently disclosed aviation emissions within the international framework, if at all. Here, we present a set of national aviation emission and fuel burn inventories for these 197 individual parties, as calculated by the high-resolution aviation transport emissions assessment model (AviTeam) model. In addition to CO2 emissions, the AviTeam model calculates pollutant emissions, including NOx, SOx, unburnt hydrocarbons, black carbon, and organic carbon. Emission inventories are created in aggregated and gridded format and rely on Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast combined with schedule data. The cumulative global fuel burn is estimated at 291 Tg for the year 2019. This corresponds to CO2 emissions of 920 Tg, with 306 Tg originating from domestic aviation. We present emissions from 151 countries that have yet to report their emissions for 2019, which sum to 417 TgCO2. The improved availability of national emissions data facilitated by this inventory could support mitigation efforts in developed and developing countries and shows that such tools could bolster sector reporting to the UNFCCC.

Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets

Many economies set climate mitigation targets for 2020 at the 2009 15th Conference of the Parties conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Yet no retrospective review of the implementation and actual mitigation associated with these targets has materialized. Here we track the national CO2 emissions from both territory and consumption (trade adjusted) perspectives to assess socioeconomic factors affecting changes in emissions. Among the 34 countries analysed, 12 failed to meet their targets (among them Portugal, Spain and Japan) and 7 achieved the target for territorial emissions, albeit with carbon leakage through international trade to meet domestic demand while increasing emissions in other countries. Key factors in meeting targets were intensity reduction of energy and the improvement of the energy mix. However, many countries efforts fell short of their latest nationally determined contributions. Timely tracking and review of mitigation efforts are critical for meeting the Paris Agreement targets.