Can China Reach Its Carbon Peak Before 2030? An Empirical Study Based on China's Carbon Emission Data

Abstract

The global surge in the warming trend is predominantly attributed to the substantial release of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide. Despite continuous international efforts to curb these emissions, our country, marked by the largest population and energy consumption, stands as a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Unlike developed nations, we face a more formidable challenge in reducing emissions, demanding intensified endeavors. To address climate change, our nation has set a crucial carbon emission target: achieving a carbon peak before 2030 and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. The "14th Five-Year Plan" of each province underscores the significance of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality," tailoring emission reduction policies to individual economic landscapes. Current research inadequacies hinder theoretical guidance needed to meet the 2030 carbon peak. Crafting province-specific emission reduction strategies is thus imperative. This study aims to scrutinize national and regional carbon dioxide emissions in four distinct Chinese regions, utilizing the STIRPAT model to predict emissions from 2020 to 2030 under the "low development and strong low carbon" paradigm. Initial analysis from 2004 to 2019 showed an annual increase in national and provincial carbon dioxide emissions, revealing significant regional differences. Six prominent factors influencing emissions were identified. The STIRPAT model predicted emissions for 2020 to 2030, indicating that achieving carbon peaking before 2030 is unfeasible under the baseline scenario. However, within the "low development and strong low carbon" framework, attaining this goal becomes plausible.