NATO Research Articles

Disinformation challenges facing the Three Seas Initiative – frame analysis of the key narratives

By exploiting the potential of social media, disinformation has become an important element of warfare. The region of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is particularly vulnerable to disinformation, primarily from Russia. One of the reasons for Russia’s activities in this region’s infosphere is that most CEE countries are members of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In this context, Russian disinformation activities aimed at the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) are particularly interesting. The image of the 3SI created in the media is crucial, for it translates into how the public understands, perceives and recalls this format of cooperation. The article aims to reconstruct the image of the 3SI in cases of Russian disinformation identified by the European External Action Service within the EUvsDisinfo project. The article’s methodology is based on a qualitative content analysis of disinformation cases identified by EUvsDisinfo. The article identifies four main frames of disinformation targeting the 3SI, showing that Russian disinformation is focused on undermining the credibility and integrity of this cooperation, both among Initiative countries and between them and their international partners.

Constructivism and Euro-Atlantic integration perspectives: the case of Montenegro's accession to NATO and the EU. Journal of Law and Politics

Constructivism and Euro-Atlantic integration perspectives: the case of Montenegro's accession to NATO and the EU. Journal of Law and Politics

Reasons for Different Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Abstract Recent several studies have focused on the predictability of tropical cyclone track forecast. As a response to the question issued by Landsea and Cangialosi (2018) about "the approaching limit of predictability for tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is near or has already been reached", Zhou and Toth (2020) (short for ZT20) and Yu et al. (2022) (short for Y22) have found that the limit of predictability for TC track prediction has not been reached both in Atlantic (ATL) and Western North Pacific (WNP) basins. However, the predictabilities are different in two basins, as ZT20 found that 1 day's improvement can be obtained through 10 years in ATL, while Y22 found that 2 days' improvement can be obtained through 15 years in WNP. To reveal the causes of this difference, the predictability of TC track in WNP is first investigated under the same framework as ZT20. Then important parameters that determined the predictabilities are found and analyzed. Results suggested that the growth rate of true track forecast error in WNP is higher than that in ATL, indicating a lower predictability in WNP. Further explorations suggested that TCs in WNP basin have averagely larger sizes, stronger intensities, lower-latitude locations, and poorer forecast skills of their guided flows. All these factors contribute to the larger track forecast error growth rate. Moreover, it is pointed out that as the improvement of forecast skills over years mainly due to the reduction of initial analysis errors, although a lower predictability is found in WNP, the forecast skill improvement in WNP is faster than that in ATL.

Joining NATO: a national end or a strategic means for Georgia?

Georgia’s pursuit of NATO membership faces significant challenges due to Russia’s strong opposition, placing the country at a critical geopolitical crossroads. This article examines whether NATO membership is a national end or a strategic means for enhancing Georgia’s security. It explores the historical context, strategic dilemmas, and complexities of Georgia’s situation, highlighting the impact of Russia’s opposition, particularly in light of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The article argues that NATO membership should be a means to enhance security rather than a precursor to armed conflict. It recommends that Georgia adopt a strategy of strategic patience and diplomacy, recognizing that Euro-Atlantic integration is a long-term endeavour; prioritize dialogue with both NATO and Russia; pursue regional cooperation; and explore alternative pathways to security as well. Ultimately, the article calls for a comprehensive approach to national security that aligns with Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations while addressing immediate security challenges

Formation of the international legal framework in ensuring economic security: the contribution of international organisations

Introduction: The article offers a concise overview of international organisations as collaborative partnerships among states with defined objectives while also analysing the underlying motivations for their establishment.Objective: This article explores the roles and distinctive characteristics of major global institutions, including the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), Council of Europe (CoE), Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and World Trade Organization (WTO).Methods: The study employs diverse investigative methodologies, including thorough literature reviews and statistical analyses, to examine core concepts such as "legal order", "international legal order", "international security", and "global security".Results: It takes a historical perspective to trace the evolution of international organisations and utilises generalisation and diagnostic techniques to offer practical recommendations and reach conclusions. The article differentiates between "international security?" and "global security", underscoring the latter’s broader scope. Furthermore, it underscores the pivotal role of the United Nations (UN) in safeguarding global peace, fostering amicable ties among nations, advancing international collaboration, and acting as a forum for coordinating various national endeavours.Conclusions: International organisations, spearheaded by the United Nations (UN), are pivotal in upholding the international legal framework and safeguarding global security in the face of ever-evolving challenges and threats

Jak skutecznie dzielić się wiedzą na temat zwalczania terroryzmu? Wnioski, dobre praktyki i zalecenia NATO DEEP eAcademy

Experience in recent years, including intense technological development and the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to an increased interest in web-based training. E-learning allows learners to absorb knowledge at a pace that is tailored to their abilities and teachers to be more flexible in their delivery. The same circumstances that have created new forms of learning and working in a technologically developed society have triggered the rise of hybrid threats and given terrorists modern tools. In response to this trend the North Atlantic Alliance established, among others, NATO DEEP eAcademy – an entity from the sphere of education and training, whose task is to develop optimal solutions for implementing the assumptions of NATO Defence Education Enhancement Programme, i.e. a programme supporting the transformation of the military education systems of NATO partner countries. The director of this institution, Prof. Piotr Gawliczek, talks about what NATO DEEP eAcademy offers these countries and the Polish contribution to this project.

How to efficiently share counterterrorism knowledge? Lessons learned, best practices and NATO DEEP eAcademy recommendations

Experience in recent years, including intense technological development and the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to an increased interest in web-based training. E-learning allows learners to absorb knowledge at a pace that is tailored to their abilities and teachers to be more flexible in their delivery. The same circumstances that have created new forms of learning and working in a technologically developed society have triggered the rise of hybrid threats and given terrorists modern tools. In response to this trend the North Atlantic Alliance established, among others, NATO DEEP eAcademy – an entity from the sphere of education and training, whose task is to develop optimal solutions for implementing the assumptions of NATO Defence Education Enhancement Programme, i.e. a programme supporting the transformation of the military education systems of NATO partner countries. The director of this institution, Prof. Piotr Gawliczek, talks about what NATO DEEP eAcademy offers these countries and the Polish contribution to this project.

Deterrence and Missed Opportunities: Insights from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The paper critiques the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a nuclear-armed alliance, exploring whether enlargement provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the role of deterrence in conflict escalation. Despite NATO's efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses without direct intervention, questions remain about the effectiveness of its deterrence strategy. Public opinion shifts in Sweden and Finland toward NATO membership after Russia’s actions highlight broader implications for European security. The paper also assesses the non-implementation of the Minsk agreements, exploring missed opportunities for conflict resolution and peacebuilding. By examining these dynamics, it contributes to debates on NATO's future, the efficacy of nuclear deterrence, and the prospects for cooperative security amidst escalating global tensions.

Why emerging and disruptive capabilities are a mixed blessing for NATO as a nuclear alliance

ABSTRACT Over the past decade, the world has entered the third nuclear age. One of the most important characteristics of this new nuclear age is the rise of emerging and disruptive capabilities that could influence and have implications for the credibility of nuclear deterrence, next to renewed major power competition and an emerging nuclear multipolarity. These capabilities create both benefits and challenges for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This was recognised in the new Strategic Concept of the Alliance adopted at the 2022 Madrid Summit. This article reviews the existing literature on emerging and disruptive capabilities and discusses the implications of these capabilities for NATO as a nuclear alliance. As these capabilities will be further developed and deployed by both allies and potential adversaries, they are likely to prove a mixed blessing for the alliance as a whole.

Gaza War: New Opportunities and Challenges for Iran

The Iranian decision not to immediately retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, in part reflects a concerted effort by regional, Chinese, Russian, and Western diplomats to convince Iran that de-escalation and diplomacy was the wiser course. It also reflects recognition by the new administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian –whose inauguration preceded the Haniyeh killing by only a few hours– that such a military retaliation would likely provoke a massive Israeli response backed by the U.S. and other Western allies that would doom Iran’s chances of re-engaging with the West and relieving onerous economic sanctions. A wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah across the Israel-Lebanon border does not appear to have changed this calculus for Iran, which is confronting severe domestic economic problems and a growing gap between the regime and society. Still, any progress in improving U.S.-Iran relations will have to await the results of U.S. presidential elections.

The middle tier of states and the Russia–Ukraine war

Abstract This article examines the concept of the ‘middle tier of states’ proposed by Halford Mackinder in 1919, its failure to prevent German-Soviet Union rapprochement in the interwar years, its recent revival and its geopolitical implications. Mackinder's ‘heartland thesis’ comprises two interrelated parts: the geopolitical significance of the heartland, and the middle tier of states, which he suggested could counteract the pernicious impact of the heartland. Although the middle tier of states paralleled the 1919 Versailles settlement in east-central Europe, its failure to play the role that Mackinder suggested has never been properly investigated. Over the past decade, the middle tier of states has been revived by a range of regional cooperation projects in east-central Europe, while the Russia–Ukraine war attests to its necessity and viability in the current context. The Russia–Ukraine war has shown that a strengthened middle tier of NATO and European Union states will not just reshape the geopolitical landscape of Europe but will have significant implications for world politics.

Women's military service in Poland in the perspective of recruiting women to the Military University of Technology

Abstract: Since 1999, Poland has become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. The aftermath of this event was that women were allowed to serve in all military positions. At the same time, military academies gave women the opportunity to study on terms previously available only to men. The forerunner in this area was the Military University of Technology (WAT), which not only was the first to open the Academy to female cadets, but also educated the largest number of female officers. The existing research gap regarding the process of transformation of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland in the context of educating a highly qualified officer corps, taking into account fundamental changes in ensuring women have access to all officer positions, required an analysis of the process of recruitment and education of women for military service by the largest military university in Poland. Now, after 20 years of training, it is possible to evaluate this process, which became the purpose of this article. The question of how the number of women at the WAT changed in the process of recruitment and enrollment was adopted as a research problem. The intention of the Authors is not only to identify existing trends, but also to highlight the distinguished role of the Military University of Technology in this area. It was assumed (research hypothesis) that not only the interest of women in military studies is increasing, but also the number of women choosing technical education is increasing, as well. The article uses research methods in relation to the cognitive and praxeological research problem: systematic literature review, quantitative methods and qualitative methods, comparative methods, concretization, and formalization methods. The research conducted clearly indicates an upward trend in women's interest not only in military studies, but also in studying at the Academy in general. Although some fluctuations over a period of more than 20 years are noticeable, they are due to economic, demographic, or political factors. Nevertheless, the article clearly shows the significant role of the Military Academy of Technology in educating female officers and thus meeting the requirements of a modern, professional army.

THE EUROPEAN MIRROR OF HYBRID WAR: HOW RUSSIA TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is the biggest war after the World War II, has caused a number of problems in Europe and in the whole democratic world, which is concerning regarding the functioning of the international institutions, the security of the countries that are part of international organizations, but aren't members of the EU and NATO, the protection of human rights mechanisms and the lack of mechanisms for the prevention of war and conflicts. It is clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is no accident. The Russian elites, led by President Vladimir Putin, have been preparing for this move for years. Not only have they acted openly, but they have also been waging a hybrid war. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has been going on since 2014, when Russia supported the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics for succession. And before that, Moscow unilaterally annexed Crimea. The European response to Russian aggression has been diplomatic expressions of concern and threats, and some sanctions, which Russia has successfully evaded. It seemed that Europe had consistently adapted to the new geopolitical environment. But only after 24th of February 2022, all civilization's words stand by Ukraine and the Ukrainians. The Western allies of Ukraine give money and weapons, humanitarian aid, training of military and deminers and take in Ukrainian refugees. The war in Ukraine is in its third year. This analysis elaborates the Russian influence on different levels and the European reactions to their attacks and provocations.

Rosja na Bałkanach w XXI wieku: konflikty, działania i perspektywy

Following the dissolution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, six newly independent countries sought European and Euro-Atlantic integration. The advantageous geographical position and geopolitical importance of the region as a borderland between East and West gained international attention during the Balkan wars. In this period Russia started to consider the region with more interest, relying on its historical, ideational, religious and political ties with the countries therein. This article looks into Russia’s presence and role in the region by focusing on two main dimensions: (1) the anti-Western sentiment reflected in the Kremlin’s efforts to prevent the region’s advancement towards NATO, and (2) the ideational element that includes a plethora of activities, covert activities, and tactics intended to exert political influence and maximize economic benefits. The broader geopolitical context is explained through the lens of the war in Ukraine, whose outcome could cause shifts in alliances in the region, subsequently affecting the Kremlin’s decades-long aim of establishing itself as a regional power.

Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world

This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.

Разум и сила внешней политики Великобритании в Балтийском регионе

This article reflects the position or, more precisely speaking, disposition of Great Britain influence forces in the Baltic Sea region. In this case we can state two complementary strategic directions under the reference name «Mind and Force» identified as projections: (a) «soft power» objectified in informal network of academic and political interaction on the project platform of Baltic Geopolitics Network coordinated by Centre for Geopolitics of the University of Cambridge, and (b) military force – deployment of elements of Joint Expeditionary Force of Great Britain on the Baltic Sea including across the Russian border perimeter in addition to already deployed North Atlantic Alliance forces.

Memellanders in Norway after World War 2

In the aftermath of World War II, a group of 843 individuals from the area that today constitutes Lithuania found themselves stranded in Norway. Included among them were a number of people from the formerly German Memel region (Klaipėdos kraštas). As repatriation efforts commenced in 1945, the Western Allies made a distinction between Lithuanians and Memellanders in such a way that it directly impacted where each individual could settle after the war. Lithuanians were offered to either go home, or to resettle in the West, while Memellanders on the other hand primarily were repatriated to Germany. This decision forced individuals to weigh their personal identities against practical considerations. In this situation, some individuals aligned with their true nationality while others made more pragmatic choices based on what they saw as the most favourable outcome. This article explores the situation of the Memellanders in Norway during the war, and the circumstances surrounding their repatriation.

Constitution development cyclicity and factors that influence it

The article is dedicated to the study of certain aspects of the constitution development cyclicity and the factors that influence such cyclicity. The author emphasizes that the state, society and the constitution are in constant interconnection with each other, and therefore formation of cyclicity of constitution development is inseparable from other legal phenomena. It was found that cyclicity is characterized by stability (invariability of the stages (phases) forming cyclicity of constitution development) and survivability (dynamics that forms the constitution’s ability to adapt to new challenges and tasks arising in society). The author draws attention to both actual and legal constitutions. It was established that: a) actual and legal constitutions are indeed independent juridical phenomena, however, they interact with each other and that is manifested in the aspect that de facto relations which influence emergence of an actual constitution contribute to changes of a legal constitution; b) the factors under which de facto relations are formed in the state serve as prerequisites for beginning, development or termination of the stages of adoption, reform and invalidation of the constitution. The author specifies that, since the constitution functions within the political organization of society, all factors relating to cyclicity of its development in relation to the state can be divided into internal factors arising in the state (social, cultural, economic, political, etc.) and foreign policy factors (adoption of international acts, unilateral acts of other states, etc.) which influence determination of a political course and orientation of the state and contribute to dynamism of the constitution’s life cycle. The author gives an example of an internal (political) factor influencing cyclicity of the constitution development – a choice of a new vector of Ukraine’s policy towards membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that resulted in introduction of amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine in 2019. The other example given is associated with a foreign policy factor – constitutional changes in Germany in 2022 aimed at increasing the budget expenditures of the state for its army’s defense capability because of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Grasping the opportunity for small state leadership: Estonia’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reinforced Estonia’s long-held worldview and strategic posture rather than bringing about any principled foreign policy change. There was a remarkable change, though, in Estonia’s international visibility. The turbulent security environment created an opportunity for small state leadership especially in the framework of regional organisations. During the two first years of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Estonia’s foreign and security policy focused on shaping the policies of North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union with a view to providing maximum support to Ukraine and increasing the cost of aggression for Russia. Estonia acted as a leader through shaping the public narrative, setting the agenda, leading by example, building coalitions and orchestrating the desired outcomes. Through analysing the Estonian experience, the article addresses the broader puzzle of how small states can overcome their relative lack of power and take leadership in matters of international security, usually dominated by great powers.

Institutional change of the Colombian army 2012–2021

ABSTRACT Military transformations occur reactively in response to changes in environmental conditions and conflicts. Likewise, military transformations show a tendency to copy the best practices of the most powerful forces and of organizations like North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, little is known about the effect of a proactive planning strategy on the transformation process. This article raises the theoretical debate on the institutional change of the Colombian Army, presenting evidence that allows us to define whether it has been carried out in a reactive, evolutionary way or with a design-based approach which would lead to the development of institutional work through the modification of the factors of military capabilities. The main result shows the presence of institutional work to generate disruptions in the Army. Particularly when altering the doctrine, changes in education and training are triggered, which allows the organizational structure to be redesigned to adopt new practices. However, limitations in the acquisition and deployment of new technologies and infrastructure inhibit institutional change and organizational transformation.