National Risk Management Research Articles

Collection, Standardization and Attribution of Robust Disaster Event Information—A Demonstrator of a National Event-Based Loss and Damage Database in Austria

Loss and damage databases are essential tools within the disaster risk management cycle for making informed decisions. However, even in data-rich countries such as Austria, no consistent and curated multi-hazard database is available. Based on the requirements of the United Nations, the European Union, as well as on national demands to deal with disaster impacts, we conceived and set up a demonstrator for a consistent multi-hazard national event-based loss and damage database that addresses event identification, loss accounting and disaster forensics according to international standards. We built our database on already existing data from administration and federal agencies and formulated a process to combine those data in a synergetic way. Furthermore, we tested how earth observation and weather data could help to derive more robust disaster event information. Our demonstrator focuses on two Austrian federal provinces, three hazard types—floods, storms and mass movements—and the period between 2005 and 2018. By analyzing over 140.000 single event descriptions, we conclude that—despite some limitations in retrospective data harmonization—the implementation of a curated event-based national loss and damage database is feasible and adds significant value compared to the usage of single national datasets or existing international databases such as EM-DAT or the Risk Data Hub. With our demonstrator, we are able to support the national risk assessment, the national Sendai Monitoring and federal disaster risk management with the provision of best possible harmonized loss and damage information, tailored indicators and statistics as well as hazard impact maps on the municipality scale.

Smallholder farmers’ crop production and input risk analysis in rural Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Different types of risks are inherent in agricultural production. This study examines agricultural input risks faced by smallholder farmers in rural Ethiopia. It uses data from farm household surveys covering the period 1995–2015. The study uses a stochastic production function approach for estimating the mean production and risks of agricultural inputs. The mean production estimation results are consistent with the economic theory of conventional inputs. Land and labour have higher elasticities than the other inputs. The variance or risk estimation results show that fertilizers and labour are risk-decreasing inputs, while land is a risk-increasing input. Crop diversification has a risk-decreasing impact. The more farmers diversify their crops, the less is the yield variability. However, the risk variation effects of farm inputs vary across regions in the country. For example, risk-decreasing effects of fertilizers are high in the Oromia region, moderate in the Southern Nations and Nationalities and low in the Amhara regional state. Variations in regional input risks need to be considered in national agriculture risk management and food security efforts. The risk variation effects of these inputs decreased over time.

Technical assistance to support discussions on national risk management measures to address possible shortages of food and feed supply as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Some EU Member States depend to a great extent on feed imports from Ukraine. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the supply chains are interrupted, and stakeholders informed the European Commission about possible imminent shortages, mainly for wheat, barley, maize, sunflower seeds, rapeseeds and soyabeans used for feed purposes. As a consequence, they announced to take steps to find alternative sources for importing these products. However, stricter maximum residue levels (MRLs) for pesticides in the EU (EU MRLs), may pose problems for imports if the MRLs in the country of origin were set at higher levels. Member States may make use of the possibility of Article 18(4) of Regulation (EC) No 396/2005 and set national temporary MRLs (tMRLs) in such exceptional circumstances, provided that those are safe for consumers based on a detailed risk assessment and that controls are put in place to ensure that consignments not complying with EU MRLs do not leave the national territory. In the current report, EFSA provides technical background information that is intended to support Member States who consider the implementation of Codex MRLs as national temporary MRLs and highlights certain options for flexibility in view of setting national temporary MRLs which are however very limited. This technical report does not anticipate any national risk management decisions, which falls under the responsibility of the national competent authorities.

The Role of Global Data Sets for Riverine Flood Risk Management at National Scales

AbstractOver the last two decades, several data sets have been developed to assess flood risk at the global scale. In recent years, some of these data sets have become detailed enough to be informative at national scales. The use of these data sets nationally could have enormous benefits in areas lacking existing flood risk information and allow better flood management decisions and disaster response. In this study, we evaluate the usefulness of global data for assessing flood risk in five countries: Colombia, England, Ethiopia, India, and Malaysia. National flood risk assessments are carried out for each of the five countries using six data sets of global flood hazard, seven data sets of global population, and three different methods for calculating vulnerability. We also conduct interviews with key water experts in each country to explore what capacity there is to use these global data sets nationally. We find that the data sets differ substantially at the national level, and this is reflected in the national flood risk estimates. While some global data sets could be of significant value for national flood risk management, others are either not detailed enough, or too outdated to be relevant at this scale. For the relevant global data sets to be used most effectively for national flood risk management, a country needs a functioning, institutional framework with capability to support their use and implementation.

Risk management of pregnant women and the associated low maternal mortality from 2008\u20132017 in China: a national longitude study

BackgroundReducing maternal mortality is one of the key targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In response to the impact of increased birth rate on maternal and child safety following the implementation of the two-child policy in 2013, the Chinese government implemented the risk management strategy (namely Five Strategies for Maternal and Newborn Safety, FSMNS) to reduce maternal mortality ratio (MMR). We aimed to analyze the changes in the proportion of pregnant women at high risk screened before and after the implementation of the risk management strategy and the association with maternal mortality during the two-child policy era in China.MethodsWe conducted a nationwide longitudinal study using data obtained from the National Statistical Yearbook and the National Health Statistics Yearbook for all 31 provinces from 2008–2017 to assess and analyze the changes in the proportion of pregnant women at high risk screened before (2008–2013) and after (2014–2017) the implementation of the risk management strategy during the two-child policy era. We used generalized estimating equation (GEE) models to analyze the relationship between the proportion of pregnant women at high risk and MMR after controlling for sociodemographic factors, health resources, and other maternal healthcare factors.ResultsIn the past decade, the number of livebirths in China increased by 32.3%, from 13.3 million in 2008 to 17.6 million in 2017. The median proportion of pregnant women at high risk in 31 provinces increased by 64.8%, from 14.87% in 2008 to 24.50% in 2017. The annual rate of increase in the median proportion of pregnant women at high risk after the implementation of risk management (1.33%) was higher than that before the implementation (0.74%). The median MMR in China decreased by 39.6%, from 21.7 per 100,000 livebirths in 2008 to 13.1 per 100,000 livebirths in 2017. The univariate GEE models showed that MMR decreased by 7.9% per year from 2008–2017 (cRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.91–0.93), and the proportion of pregnant women at high risk was negatively correlated with MMR (cRR 0.97, 95%CI 0.94–0.99; p = 0.001). In the multivariate GEE models, after adjusting for confounders, the proportion of pregnant women at high risk remained negatively correlated with MMR. In the subgroup analysis, the association of MMR with GDP per capita and government health expenditure per capita existed only prior to the implementation of risk management; while high MMR was associated with a low proportion of pregnant women at high risk after the implementation of risk management.ConclusionThe national risk management strategy contributed to the stable decline of MMR in China during the two-child policy era. Further attention should be focused on pregnant women in China’s central and western regions to ensure reaching SDGs targets and the ‘Healthy China Plan’ by 2030.

НАПРЯМИ ПІДВИЩЕННЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ОРГАНІЗАЦІЙНО-ПРАВОВОГО ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ЗАХИСТУ КРИТИЧНОЇ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРИ

The article is devoted to the analysis of legal and organizational and managerial problems of improving the protection of critical infrastructure of the state in Ukraine. The issue of optimizing the system of critical infrastructure protection is studied as a factor in ensuring the national stability of our country in a hybrid war. Prospects for optimizing the system of critical infrastructure protection through further active implementation of risk-oriented management methodology and program-target approach in the activities of national security entities are also studied, the directions of organizational, legal and financial support of this process are determined. The study of the security situation shows that solving problems in the field of national security is possible only on the basis of an adaptive approach based on systematic response to existing and future threats. It is noted that the tasks of protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring national stability and national resilience in general should be implemented using modern management technologies. The basis of the concept of developing a new risk management system is the transition from a fragmented response to strategic risks to the complex integrated actions that are part of the overall management of national security. It should be noted that given the real economic potential of the state, the risk management mechanism as a basis for ensuring national resilience and protection of critical infrastructure should be as effective as possible in terms of comparing the cost of its activities and the results obtained. Effective risk management is possible only in the context of the implementation of comprehensive government targeted programs, which must be adequately provided with financial resources through appropriate budget programs. It is argued that the core of the state system of critical infrastructure protection and risk management in this area should be economic mechanisms. Their purpose is to form the economic foundation for the functioning of this system at all levels of security management, from the object to the national. It is proposed to improve the existing and put into operation all those other economic regulators that have found application in world practice. The set of economic regulatory mechanisms should ensure the optimal balance of economic costs and the level of security in conditions of limited resources in the state. The implementation of this direction should also take place within the framework of public-private partnership in the field of critical infrastructure protection. It turns out that the development of a national risk management strategy is also a matter of time. Achieving acceptable levels of risk throughout the country is a long-term national task that should be implemented in stages. The implementation of this strategy should be based on the program-target method of both planning and budgeting. In order to strengthen the targeted nature of the use of budget funds and get the maximum results from the resources involved in the security sector, it is necessary to make appropriate changes to the Budget Code of Ukraine in order to detail the classification of budget expenditures. It should also be noted that the regulation of the budget classification by the Budget Code will significantly contribute to the optimization and unification of budget expenditures. Tasks and functions of some important security sector bodies in the protection of critical infrastructure should be detailed at the legislative level.

The concept of national integrated risk management of aviation transport of Ukraine

In the context of modern conditions of air transport development, the concept of the national air transport integrated risk management system is substantiated. The concept is based on the definition of risk as the probability of occurrence of events in a complex of hazards of different nature, manifestations of safety vulnerabilities, consequences of past negative phenomena and explains the danger of the threat due to determination "maximum potential energy". Its remaining part is subsequently converted into kinetic energy, which affects the safety management system of air transport and has a negative impact on the sustainable development of the national economy as a whole. At the same time, priority attention is paid to the list of hazards by the criterion of deviation from the point of sustainable development, the importance of the impact of threats on the coefficient of elasticity, which allows more adequate assessment of hazards and respond to them. The classification of the main risks in the functioning of Ukrainian air transport has been developed, which includes the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, reduction of export-import operations in the economic downturn, number of flights and air passenger traffic, low congestion of airports and air infrastructure. Risks are identified in the following areas of operation and development of air transport in Ukraine: export-import operations, aviation infrastructure, air cargo, airports, air navigation service providers and general aviation, which allows early detection of risks and response to them. The concept was implemented by the State Aviation Regulation Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the State Civil Aviation Agency of Azerbaijan, Almaty International Airport (Kazakhstan), Ukraine-Air Alliance, ICAO NAU Institute, Georgian Aviation Training Center (Georgia).

Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya

ABSTRACT Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya's current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems.

Reconfiguration of the boundaries of occupational risk prevention observed during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of personal protective equipment and collective protection in France

During the COVID-19 pandemic, national risk management scenarios took an unexpected course at different individual and collective scales. In France, in the field of occupational risk, long-established practices, rules, and categories have been disturbed and placed ‘under stress’. The field of prevention of occupational risk, which has constituted a distinct field in health policies, with its own bodies, missions and approaches, was similarly disturbed. To describe and analyse these social phenomena, we propose using two complementary concepts: the British ‘risk work’ and the French ‘prevention work’ [‘travail de prévention’]. We show some of the empirical manifestations of risk work associated with prevention work and their effects on the boundaries instituted in the field of prevention at work. Our investigation used data from documentation and interviews in order to explore the experiences of two categories of professionals – physicians specialising in occupational health and home care aides – concerned with prevention during an acute phase of the pandemic. We point out that the question of protective means and equipment has been a central issue, in a context characterised by tensions between knowledge and available material resources. We also show that contradictions and points of tension between actors reveal the subjects under discussion and the more or less porous nature of the boundaries. Amid these processes, however, the principles underlying occupational health were reaffirmed, along with the need for a cooperation between workers and prevention professionals.

Institutional Measures of Air Transport Safety Strategic Management at the Level of State Regulation

World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) and adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is a plan of action aimed at achieving global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental areas, which ensures that no UN member state is left behind. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, ecological and public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. The aviation transport is a part of the transport complex of Ukraine, which is an important component in the structure of the national economy and a link between all components of economic security to ensure the basic conditions of life and development of the state and society. The assessment of economic, technological, safety, social and ecological hazards is an integral part of all the logical blocks of the structural and functional scheme of strategic management of aviation safety in terms of sustainable development of the national economy. According to the concept of national aviation risk management developed by the authors, risk can be assessed as a mutual combination of hazarad, vulnerability and consequences. The application of this concept in relation to the air transport of Ukraine allowed to identify the main hazards, vulnerabilities, consequences and risks. The next step in the implementation of the concept is to develop institutional measures to neutralize threats in the field of aviation safety, which is actually a set of risk reduction measures for further sustainable development of the national economy. This article summarizes the hazards, vulnerabilities, consequences, risks, and institutional arrangements for strategic aviation safety management. Among the priority measures are: harmonization of national regulation of air transport with the requirements of global and regional levels, development of mechanisms for commercial protection of domestic air transport enterprises in the COVID-19 pandemic, implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine until 2030. The implementation of the proposed institutional measures will ensure an appropriate level of safety, efficiency and regularity of the national air transport of Ukraine.

Management and clinical consequences of red blood cell antibodies in pregnancy: A population-based cohort study.

Anti-D alloimmunization is the most common cause of severe hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN). The management of pregnancies affected by less frequent red blood cell (RBC) antibodies poses a challenge to clinicians, and perinatal outcomes are less well described. This study aimed to describe the frequency of clinically significant RBC antibodies in our pregnant population and analyze the risk of prenatal and postnatal treatment for HDFN in relation to our national risk classification system and management guidelines. A retrospective cohort study in the population of all alloimmunized singleton pregnancies in the Stockholm region 1990-2016. Descriptive summaries of different RBC antibodies and pregnancy outcomes were presented, the risks of intrauterine blood transfusion (IUT) and neonatal treatment for HDFN were estimated by type of antibodies. Of the 1724 alloimmunized pregnancies, 1079 (63%) were at risk of HDFN and constituted our study cohort. Anti-D was detected in 492 (46%) pregnancies, followed by anti-E in 161 (15%), and anti-c in 128 (12%). Eighty-seven (8%) pregnancies had IUT, with the highest risk in pregnancies affected by anti-D combined with other antibodies. The maximum titer recorded before IUT was 64 or above, except for two pregnancies affected by anti-c, for which the maximum titers were 8 and 16. For the 942 (95%) live-born neonates from 992 alloimmunized pregnancies without IUT, the median gestational age at birth was 38+5 weeks compared with 35+5 weeks for those who had IUT. Neonatal treatment was most common in the anti-D alone and anti-D combined groups, with 136 (57%) and 21 (44%), respectively, treated with phototherapy and 35 (15%) and 9 (20%) receiving exchange transfusions, respectively. For pregnancies complicated by moderate- and low-risk antibodies, phototherapy was less frequent (32 [36%] and 21 [19%]) and exchange transfusion was rare (5 [6%] and 3 [3%]). Anti-D, especially in combination with other antibodies, presents the highest risk of severe HDFN. The classification of less frequent and less well-known RBC antibodies into risk groups can help clinicians in assessing the risk of HDFN and counseling alloimmunized pregnant women regarding the risk of prenatal and postnatal treatments.

Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large‐scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia

AbstractOcean–atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short‐ and long‐term spatial drought patterns (3‐, 6, 12‐ and 24‐months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio‐temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio‐temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North–South and East–West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio‐temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North–South gradient in drought conditions over Peninsular Malaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East–West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East–West or North–South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short‐term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer‐duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio‐temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management.

Adaptive risk management strategies for governments under future climate and socioeconomic change: An application to riverine flood risk at the global level

Climate-related disaster risks pose a threat to sustainable development today and in the future. Major global agendas, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals, address ways of developing effective management strategies for tackling such risks. Risk management is increasingly focusing on low probability but high impact events, next to the more traditional attention on expected losses. We focus on urban riverine flood risk across 200 countries for today, 2030, and 2080, and develop a risk-threshold approach for identifying whether a country is exposed to risk of extreme events and, if so, when and how much. Furthermore, we apply a risk-layer approach to delineate the kinds of risk reduction or financing instruments that may be needed to manage emerging risks at the national level. Based on these country-level results, we analyze the macroeconomic consequences of setting up a global fund as one international option for coping with floods today and in the future. An additional macroeconomic analysis of different funding schemes for capitalizing the global fund provides insights into linking national risk management efforts with global efforts to manage risks. The global fund could be capitalized according to different equality principles. Our results provide an argument for an equity-based capitalization principle rather than a risk-based one, as the former makes damages at the local level a global responsibility.

Barriers to Climate Disaster risk Management for Public Health: Lessons from a Pilot Survey of National Public Health Representatives.

This study sought to examine current national disaster risk management capacities, and identify governance barriers to strengthening national preparedness for responding to public health emergencies, associated with the anticipated climate-driven intensification of natural disaster cycles. A mixed-methods online survey, assessing broader governance constraints to climate change adaptation (CCA) for public health, was distributed to representatives of national public health associations, and societies of 82 member countries under the World Federation of Public Health Associations. Specific questions relevant to disaster risk management capacities and barriers were analyzed as part of a narrowed focus on the CCA subdomain of emergency preparedness. Existence of some technology, infrastructure, and/ or human resources, necessary to develop early warning and other surveillance systems for climate-related health risks was reported by 9 out of 11 responding countries. However, 7 reported persistent limitations and/ or regional discrepancies. Most significant identified barriers to strengthening emergency preparedness at the national level included governance coordination challenges, and, in the case of many developing countries, technical, medical, and human resource shortages. The development of new frameworks for intersectoral governance and large-scale resource mobilization will prove crucial to ongoing efforts to strengthen national climate-health resiliency and prepare for disaster-associated health threats.

From Risk to Legislative Innovation: The Trajectory of Marine Submersion Through the French Media

ABSTRACT Storm Xynthia (2010) brought to the fore marine submersion as a great concern to French authorities and communities. This storm illustrates how a single major event can have long-lasting effects on climate risk management. To discern this effect, we conduct two studies analyzing the emergence and evolution of concerns related to marine submersion in French national and regional newspapers prior to and after the storm (2005–2018). In Study 1, we examine trends in issue coverage and how “marine submersion” was appropriated by French media discourse over the selected period, identifying and segmenting specific topical sequences. In Study 2, a computer-assisted content analysis of 260 articles highlights a dichotomy of themes before and after Storm Xynthia. Articles published prior to Xynthia (2005–2009) warned of marine submersion among the expected impacts of climate change. Those published just after Xynthia (2010–2013) present highly structured and technical descriptions of national risk management policies. In recent years (2014–2018), articles focus on local stakeholders’ challenge to national risk management policies, described as too far removed from local dynamics. Our studies reveal the emergence and amplification, via public debate in French newspaper media, of “marine submersion” as a hazard, and the objectification of the risk through Storm Xynthia.

WITHDRAWN: The role of medical and health policies in the health risk management system.

Ahead of Print article withdrawn by publisher.

Association of particulate matter pollution 〖PM〗_10 and 〖PM〗_2.5 and COVID-19 pandemic in Quito-Ecuador


 This study aimed to investigate the associations between particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the confirmed cases, new cases and deaths by Covid-19 in Quito-Ecuador. Covid-19 data were extracted from Ecuador's National Risk Management Service, while the average daily values of and were obtained from the data reported by the Quito Environment Secretariat. The analysis of the data was performed using Kendall and Spearman's ranks correlation tests since the data did not present a normal distribution. A strong significant correlation was found between and confirmed cases and deaths, while between and confirmed cases, new cases and deaths, the correlation was weak, in both Kendall and Spearman tests. These results are consistent with the growing trends of due to ash emissions from Sangay and Reventador volcanoes, which are a natural source of PM. As a result, this study supports the possibility that the could act as a vehicle in the transmission of Covid-19. Our results will help the World Health Organization and the National Risk and Emergency Management Service in Ecuador take effective action to combat Covid-19.
 
 Index Terms— Covid-19, Particulate matter pollution, Ecuador, Volcanic Ash, Quito, Coronavirus.

Health Workforce Development in Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management: The Need for Evidence-Based Recommendations.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 placed human health at the centre of disaster risk reduction, calling for the global community to enhance local and national health emergency and disaster risk management (Health EDRM). The Health EDRM Framework, published in 2019, describes the functions required for comprehensive disaster risk management across prevention, preparedness, readiness, response, and recovery to improve the resilience and health security of communities, countries, and health systems. Evidence-based Health EDRM workforce development is vital. However, there are still significant gaps in the evidence identifying common competencies for training and education programmes, and the clarification of strategies for workforce retention, motivation, deployment, and coordination. Initiated in June 2020, this project includes literature reviews, case studies, and an expert consensus (modified Delphi) study. Literature reviews in English, Japanese, and Chinese aim to identify research gaps and explore core competencies for Health EDRM workforce training. Thirteen Health EDRM related case studies from six WHO regions will illustrate best practices (and pitfalls) and inform the consensus study. Consensus will be sought from global experts in emergency and disaster medicine, nursing, public health and related disciplines. Recommendations for developing effective health workforce strategies for low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries will then be disseminated.

COVID-19: the winter lockdown strategy in five European nations

European lockdown strategies over the winter of 2020 have brought into sharp relief the need for effective strategies to reduce the rate of COVID-19 transmission and lower the rate of hospitalisations and deaths. Understanding exactly how European nations have arrived at this point, and the process by which they have done this, is key to learning constructive lessons for future pandemic risk management. Bringing together experience from across five European nations (the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland), this paper outlines what has occurred between September 2020 and mid-January 2021. Our analysis draws out several themes important to understanding the different national risk management approaches adopted, namely: the extent to which lessons were learned or overlooked from the first wave of the pandemic; the relationship between science and policy; the speed and responsiveness of policy decisions; and differing levels of reliance on individual responsibility for safeguarding public health. Subsequently, we recommended that: there is more involvement of decision scientists and risk analysts in COVID-19 decision making, who have largely been absent thus far; the epidemiological science should be followed where possible, but when value judgments are made this should be clearly and transparently communicated; proactive measures avoiding policy delay should be followed to reduce the rate of infection and excess deaths; governments must avoid confusing or inconsistent regional implementation and communication of interventions; rebuilding public trust is key to promoting public compliance and support for COVID-19 health measures; overreliance on individual responsibility as the focus of non-pharmaceutical interventions should be avoided; public compliance with COVID-19 restrictions requires pre-tested simple messages; open and consistent engagement with local leaders and officials should become a mainstay of government efforts to help ensure consistent adoption of nationwide COVID-19 policy measures.

Climate change affected the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters in China over the past five centuries

Climate change may contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters. Long-term studies of either homogeneous or heterogeneous responses of historical disasters to climate change are, however, limited by the quality and quantity of the available proxy data. Here we reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of five types of disasters in China during the period AD 1368–1911. Our analyses of these time series reveal that warmer temperatures decreased the occurrence of disasters in the monsoon-affected parts of central-east China, but it increased the frequency and intensity of disasters along the boundary of arid and humid conditions in parts of southwest and northeast China, probably driven by the interplay among monsoon, westerlies, polar vortex and variation of temperature. Moreover, we show that drought and flood events had cascading effects on the occurrences of locust outbreaks, famine and human epidemics. Our findings suggest that climate can contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters, and therefore may contribute to an improvement of China's regional to national risk management of future climate and environmental change.