National Public Opinion Survey Research Articles

Tainted trust: air pollution and political trust in China

ABSTRACT Adverse health and economic impacts of air pollution in China have been well documented, but few studies have examined how air pollution may affect people’s political trust in their government. From an expectation-performance perspective, we argue that air pollution makes Chinese citizens feel that their basic needs and well-being are under-protected by the government, thereby dampening their political trust. Empirically, we employ a unique dataset (n=3,972) that merges national public opinion survey with satellite-derived ground-level air pollution data to test our argument. Our analyses show that worsening air pollution significantly taints Chinese people’s trust in the government, while the absolute level of local air pollution also erodes their political trust through raised environmental concern and lowered policy satisfaction. Our research adds knowledge to the links from air pollution to people’s political trust in China and sheds new light on future studies of environmental politics and governance elsewhere.

Trust, value, and public opinion: Learning to listen

AbstractHow do museum professionals know that the institutions they serve are valued by the public? And who are the public or publics being served? Why should museums be trusted? It can be argued that one of the most important elements of professional knowledge is an understanding of the publics we serve and what the people who constitute these publics value in, and about museums. Despite its importance, the question has been little studied. This paper uses two national public opinion surveys conducted in Canada nearly 50 years apart to document changing perceptions of museums in Canada over the last half century and places their findings in the context of comparative studies in the United States, Europe, and Britain. The paper also looks at the curious tension between what museum professionals think about museums and what the public says about them, and how this can shape museum theory and practice.

Ideology, knowledge, and the assessment of science policy agencies

Abstract In the USA, politics often dominates the conversation surrounding science and related technologies. We also live in times of high political polarization, leading to political debate over scientific discoveries and subsequent policy implications. Given these dynamics, there is much to be learned about the politicization of science, individuals’ policy views, and the public’s relationship with the communication and interpretation of scientific findings. Agencies are often responsible for facilitating scientific research and framing its policy relevance for decision makers and the public. This paper uses data from a large national public opinion survey to investigate citizen attitudes about government science agencies. We theorize that disparities between objective and self-assessed scientific knowledge coupled with ideological cues help frame citizen evaluations of agencies. We find that individuals’ political ideologies and disparities between knowledge types shape citizen assessments of energy-related scientific agencies. These findings have important implications for our understanding of public acceptance of the work of government science agencies.

Societal dangers of migrant crisis narratives with a special focus on Belarussian and Ukrainian borders with Poland.

Society in the 21st century has experienced a variety of crises, from the fiscal crisis and the migration crisis to the pandemic and the inflation crisis. This paper aims to explore societal dangers of migrant crises narratives. This paper forms part of the Horizon 2020 MIMY research projects with an expert stakeholder Delphi study from seven European countries: Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Luxembourg, Sweden and the UK. It takes also into account contextual international and national public opinion surveys. We formulated a number of societal dangers related to the migrant crisis narrative, which are not sharp and exclusive but invite further consideration: (1) Societal fatigue, which relates to a rapid change in societal moods, usually from a positive to a negative attitude toward migrants, but above all this danger is connected with an aid burnout in a civil society; (2) Othering, which includes normativity, the labeling of migrants, double or multiple standards in the treatment of migrants and refugees from various origins; the societal danger of othering contributes to societal divisions, polarizations, tensions and conflicts based on ethnicity, religion, race and gender; (3) Political functionality, whereby migration as a political construct serves as a "whipping boy" for politicians to divert public opinion from recurrent problems; it also involves the creation of piecemeal, reactionary, ad hoc public policies, and the overuse of a protocol of a state of emergency in order to bring about a centralization of political power.

A onda pró-ciência em tempos de negacionismo: percepção da sociedade brasileira sobre ciência, cientistas e universidades na pandemia da COVID-19

Abstract This article presents the results of our study on the public perception of science during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, carried out at the Centro de Estudos SoU_Ciência, from Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). To answer the question: “Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed the perception of Brazilian society about science, scientists, and universities?”, quantitative and qualitative studies were conducted between August 2021 and July 2022. In national quantitative public opinion surveys, we collected exclusive data from a historical series of polls on the subject in Brazil, and in focus groups, we deepened studies on the perception and political position of different social segments. Amid the growth of scientific denialism; political and social setbacks; and the dismantling of public policies, specifically scientific and technological, resulting from the impeachment of 2016 and the election of Bolsonaro in 2018, research indicates, apparently contrary to an obscurantist political tendency, a significant expansion of public interest in science during the pandemic in the country. This paper analyzes the emergence of a “pro-science wave” in public opinion in Brazil, the factors that led to its emergence during the pandemic, and its current prospects.

Relying on Research for Effective Response: A Survey Tool for Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 to Create Extension Resources

The UF/IFAS Center for Public Issues Education in Agriculture and Natural Resources (PIE Center) conducted a series of national public opinion surveys to examine the perceptions of Americans related to COVID-19. The PIE Center shared the survey data using Extension and outreach communication pieces, including issue guides, kinetic typography videos, webinars, and communication toolkits. Data collected from the PIE Center on Americans’ perceptions related to COVID-19 also informed two communication toolkits developed for Extension. This new 5-page article, published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural Education and Communication, describes the instruments used to collect public opinion data related to COVID-19. Written by Lauri M. Baker, Ashley McLeod-Morin, Shelli Rampold, Anissa Zagonel, Ricky Telg, Angela B. Lindsey, Michaela Kandzer, Sandra Anderson, Sydney Honeycutt, Phillip Stokes, Valentina Castano, and Alena Poulin.https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/wc426

National support for gun policies among U.S. adults in 2019 and 2021

Gun-related deaths and gun purchases were at record highs in 2020. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, public protests against police violence, and a tense political environment, which may influence policy preferences, we aimed to understand the current state of support for gun policies in the U.S. We fielded a national public opinion survey in January 2019 and January 2021 using an online panel to measure support for 34 gun policies among U.S. adults. We compared support over time, by gun ownership status, and by political party affiliation. Most respondents supported 33 of the 34 gun regulations studied. Support for seven restrictive policies declined from 2019 to 2021, driven by reduced support among non-gun owners. Support declined for three permissive policies: allowing legal gun carriers to bring guns onto college campuses or K-12 schools and stand your ground laws. Public support for gun-related policies decreased from 2019 to 2021, driven by decreased support among Republicans and non-gun owners.

Publisher’s note

Gun-related deaths and gun purchases were at record highs in 2020. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, public protests against police violence, and a tense political environment, which may influence policy preferences, we aimed to understand the current state of support for gun policies in the U.S. We fielded a national public opinion survey in January 2019 and January 2021 using an online panel to measure support for 34 gun policies among U.S. adults. We compared support over time, by gun ownership status, and by political party affiliation. Most respondents supported 33 of the 34 gun regulations studied. Support for seven restrictive policies declined from 2019 to 2021, driven by reduced support among non-gun owners. Support declined for three permissive policies: allowing legal gun carriers to bring guns onto college campuses or K-12 schools and stand your ground laws. Public support for gun-related policies decreased from 2019 to 2021, driven by decreased support among Republicans and non-gun owners.

Citizen satisfaction with public service delivery: A test of alternative theories

AbstractTwo prevailing theories explain citizen satisfaction with public services from different levels and sizes of government. Reform theory argues that citizens derive the most satisfaction from larger government units because of economies of scale in service delivery. Political economy theory argues that citizens achieve the most satisfaction from smaller local government units since their voice is more likely to be heard. Both theories have been tested yielding mixed findings. An alternative theory argues that citizens have different levels of satisfaction depending upon the specific services received and directly experienced. These theories are tested using Canadian national public opinion survey data.

Public Opinion in a Pandemic: Four Surveys Conducted with Americans throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic

The UF/IFAS Center for Public Issues Education in Agriculture and Natural Resources (PIE Center) conducted a series of national public opinion surveys to examine the perceptions of Americans related to COVID-19. The PIE Center conducted four surveys with ~1,500 Americans per survey from mid-March 2020 to January 2021. The surveys sought to understand Americans’ perceptions of a range of topics including health and communication concerns, vaccination perceptions and acceptance, mask understanding and willingness, and compound disasters and stress. Presentations in this panel highlight key areas of research from this survey series and share how communicators can use this research to craft campaigns to effectively reach Americans during COVID-19 and future public health crises.

Working Paper 37: The Green Corruption paradox

This Working Paper details the findings of a survey of Indonesians’ perceptions of corruption, the economy and the environment in July 2021.
 The survey was a joint initiative of the Green Corruption team at the Basel Institute on Governance and leading Indonesian pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI). It consisted of a national public opinion survey covering 2,580 respondents and in-depth interviews with 30 private-sector representatives working in various natural resource sectors.
 The survey reveals what we call the Green Corruption paradox: Conflicting, and arguably mutually exclusive, views on all three topics can co-exist. Despite seeing the presence of and being deeply concerned about corruption and environmental degradation, people tend to focus on livelihoods when times are hard. 
 People also, according to the survey data, favour economic structures that appear to channel the benefits of natural resource utilisation more directly to citizens. In Indonesia, this means rejecting private companies – particularly foreign-owned – in favour of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and people’s cooperatives.
 The report ends with five key recommendations that can inform Indonesian policy and the interventions of donors and civil society organisations concerned with conservation, anti-corruption and sustainable development.
 This research was made possible with the generous support of the American people through the USAID CEGAH programme.

Do women face a different standard? The interplay of gender and corruption in the 2014 presidential elections in Malawi

Incumbency advantage and corruption are persistent features of Malawi politics, yet the incumbent Joyce Banda lost the 2014 elections. Drawing on national public opinion surveys and focus groups, we explore why incumbency advantage did not accrue to Banda. We argue that faced with a major corruption scandal, “Cashgate,” Banda paid a heavier price than male incumbents facing corruption scandals before and after her. Her electoral fate is consistent with studies demonstrating that women holding political offices are scrutinized more heavily than men, and when they transgress female gender stereotypes of incorruptibility, they are judged using a higher standard.

Confronting racism in nursing

Confronting racism in nursing

Intolerant Democrat Syndrome: The Problem of Indonesian Democratic Consolidation

Indonesia underwent democratization after more than 20 years (1998–2020), but many studies conclude that the country’s democracy is not consolidated and suffered a setback, at least in the last five years. An increase in political intolerance in society is believed to be the cause of this setback. However, studies on Indonesian political tolerance are biased and thus do not reflect actual conditions of general tolerance. This study offers a new unbiased strategy called “content-controlled measures of political tolerance” in the research on political tolerance. This strategy has been used in a series of national public opinion surveys for a relatively long period (2004–2019) and is a source of scarce data for this study. Results present a new finding that preference for democracy, as a measure of democratic consolidation at the attitudinal level, is not accompanied by political tolerance. In fact, political tolerance weakens the consolidation of democracy, which is a symptom of a condition that the author calls the “intolerant democrat syndrome.” In this syndrome, preference for democracy is hampered by political tolerance and vice versa. This syndrome makes the consolidation of Indonesian democracy difficult. Further research on the causes of the emergence of this syndrome is necessary; however, the author suspects that the current constitution contributes systematically to this syndrome.

Radioactive waste management in Croatia - public opinion, legal framework, and policy

Radioactive waste management is a demanding problem that is raising tensions and misunderstanding amongst the general public, experts, and policy makers in a number of countries. An investigation into the public opinion, legal framework, policy, and expert involvement on the matter of radioactive waste management has been performed in Croatia. The analysis is based on the 2016 national public opinion survey on nuclear energy and radioactive waste, and intensive examination of the changes made in Croatian legislation on radioactive waste management in the last few years. The results of the analysis indicate that hasty political decisions accompanied by a poor information sharing process and an initial low level of public knowledge on radioactive waste in general, leads to strong tensions among stakeholders. It was also shown that the role of experts and the scientific community is not clearly defined resulting in a contradictory public position towards experts and scientists, declaring them as the most trustworthy on one hand, but ignoring their expertise on the other hand. The findings of the conducted research, although specific for Croatia, could be applied in other countries to avoid similar mistakes.

Do Women Face a Different Standard? The Gender and Corruption Factors in the 2014 Presidential Elections in Malawi

Incumbency advantage is a key characteristic of African politics. Since the reintroduction of multiparty elections in 1994, corruption has been a persistent feature of the various administrations in Malawi. From this perspective, the incumbent president Joyce Banda of the People’s Party’s (PP) loss of the presidency after two years in office is a puzzling outcome of the 2014 elections. The paper explores why the incumbency advantage did not accrue to Banda, drawing from national public opinion surveys and focus group discussions conducted after the 2014 elections. We argue that, while faced with a major corruption scandal, ‘Cashgate’, Banda paid a heavier price than male incumbents facing corruption scandals before her. Her electoral fate is consistent with studies demonstrating that women holding political offices are scrutinized more than men and, when they transgress female gender stereotypes of incorruptibility, they are judged to a higher standard.

O Programa Bolsa Família e seus beneficiários na opinião pública brasileira

Resumo O artigo analisa como os brasileiros se posicionam em relação ao Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) e seus beneficiários. Os dados são de uma pesquisa nacional de opinião pública encomendada pela Secretaria de Comunicação Social da Presidência da República (Secom-PR). Resultados de um modelo logístico multinomial sobre as chances de apoio ao PBF mostraram que elas crescem com a avaliação positiva do governo federal, o nível de informação sobre o programa e o contato com beneficiários, mas caem com o aumento da escolaridade, da renda familiar e do nível de individualismo dos entrevistados. Ambivalências aparecem quando as análises se voltam para as opiniões sobre a gestão do Bolsa Família e seus beneficiários em particular. Regressões via mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), estimadas para avaliar as opiniões sobre os impactos positivos do PBF, a suposta falta de controle do programa e os beneficiários, mostraram que possuir mais conhecimento sobre o programa não diminui as visões negativas sobre os beneficiários ou as críticas em relação ao seu controle. De modo surpreendente, essas visões críticas estão presentes mesmo entre grupos de pessoas que teriam maiores chances de receber os recursos do Bolsa Família, como os menos escolarizados, não brancos e moradores do Nordeste.

A public opinion survey of four future scenarios for Australia in 2050

Scenario planning and the use of alternative futures have been used successfully to assist organisations, communities and countries to move towards desired outcomes (Dator, 2009). In this study we used a unique combination of scenario planning and a national public opinion survey to explore preferred futures for Australia in 2050. The approach used four future scenarios for Australia in 2050 as the basis for an online national public opinion survey entitled Australia: Our Future, Your Voice. Scenario development was based on a review of a broad range of scenarios for Australia and globally. We then developed four synthesis scenarios based on two axes of individual versus community orientation, and national focus on GDP growth versus a focus on well-being more broadly defined. The scenarios were labelled: (1) Free Enterprise (FE); (2) Strong Individualism (SI); (3) Coordinated Action (CA); and (4) Community Well-being (CW). We created a website that described each of these scenarios and invited people to complete a survey after they had reviewed the scenarios.The survey engaged 2575 adults in two groups: (1) a targeted statistically representative national sample (n = 2083) and (2) a self-selected sample (n = 492). Results from both groups and across all demographic categories revealed that a majority of participants preferred the Community Well-being (CW) scenario. 73% (Representative) and 61% (Self Select) ranked this scenario as 1st or 2nd. We also asked which scenario Australia was headed toward. 32% of the Representative sample and 50% of the Self-Selected sample participants ranked the Free Enterprise (FE) scenario as the most likely future. CW was ranked least likely to be ‘where Australia is heading?’ The dissonance between the future Australians want and where they thought the country is headed has clear policy implications, which we discuss.This extension of scenario planning to include public opinion surveys is novel and this approach can be used to improve thinking, discussion, planning and policy about the future of Australia, as well as potentially other countries and regions.

How Citizens View and Evaluate Political Parties and Why it Matters? The Case of Portugal (1985-2009)

This article reviwes the case of the often-claimed "crisis of parties" in Portugal, and argues that such controversy rests partly on "ambiguous" evidence. Our two main objectives are: 1) finding out the nature and extension of public support (or lack thereof) of parties, determining what are the consequences of the lack of public support for parties in citizens´ pressure to reform democrtic institutions. Based on data of four National Public Opinion Surveys, we show that attitudes regarding parties comprehend two conceptually and empirically distinct dimensions: diffuse support and specific support. Afterwards we saw, how a strong criticism of parties' performance coexists in Portugal with strong citizen pressure over political actors compelling them to implement democratic reforms. Lastly, through logistical regression models, we can conclude that both lack of specific support ("critical antipartysism") and lack of diffuse support ("delegitimizing antipartysism") are strong preditors of Portuguese citizen´ reformist orientations and calls.

Public Support for Gun Violence Prevention Policies Among Gun Owners and Non-Gun Owners in 2017.

To compare public support for 24 different gun policies between gun owners and non-gun owners in 2017. We fielded a national public opinion survey in January 2017 using an online panel to measure US adults' support for 24 gun policies. We compared support among gun owners and non-gun owners. For 23 of the 24 policies examined, most respondents supported restricting or regulating gun ownership. Only 8 of 24 policies had greater than a 10-point support gap between gun owners and non-gun owners. Policies with high public support and minimal support gaps by gun ownership status included universal background checks, greater accountability for licensed gun dealers unable to account for their inventory, higher safety training standards for concealed carry permit holders, improved reporting of records related to mental illness for background checks, gun prohibitions for persons subject to temporary domestic violence restraining orders, and gun violence restraining orders. Public Health Implications. Although there are important areas where Americans disagree on guns, large majorities of both gun owners and non-gun owners strongly support measures to strengthen US gun laws.