National Parliamentary Elections Research Articles

Transferring Power to Maintain Control: Decentralization as a National-Level Electoral Strategy in Western Europe

abstract: Why do national governments choose to transfer some of their administrative, political, and fiscal powers to regional authorities? This article develops and tests a nationally focused strategic account: decentralization is a targeted means to bolster a governing party's national-level electoral strength by appeasing the voters of threatening ethnoterritorial parties in national parliamentary elections. Statistical analyses of decentralization across the subnational regions of Western European countries confirm that governing parties transfer additional competencies to regions in which an ethnoterritorial party threat exists, when the government is legislatively vulnerable. In contrast, if a government is not dependent on a region for maintaining national parliamentary control, the presence of a strong ethnoterritorial opponent will not motivate the government to decentralize. These findings help to explain patterns of asymmetrical decentralization across regions within a country and why governing parties decentralize competencies to subnational governments that they do not expect to control.

How proportional are electoral systems? A universal measure of electoral rules

The proportionality principle of electoral systems plays an important role in multiple literatures, including comparative politics, political economy, and conflict studies. The single most important electoral system feature used to determine whether an electoral system might provide for proportional outcomes is district magnitude, i.e., the number of representatives that are elected from a given district. However, once we move beyond “simple” systems, measuring the institutional side of the equation becomes more complex. The legislative electoral systems of three out of five (61%) contemporary democracies rely on multiple institutional rules that affect the proportionality of their seat allocation, for example by combining different district magnitudes in multiple tiers, or delimiting the number of parties that can win seats through legal thresholds. There is no widely accepted measure of district magnitude for such cases. Relying on four simple axioms, this article extends the concept of district magnitude to all these complex electoral systems. We introduce the effective district magnitude, a new index that measures the proportionality of electoral systems based solely on institutional rules. It is applicable for all rules used in national parliamentary elections in democracies worldwide. This new, theory-based index improves the explanatory power of two crucial variables usually associated with district magnitude: vote-seat disproportionality and party system fragmentation.

Mitigasi Risiko Dan Jaminan Social Bagi Penyelenggara Pemilu 2024

Abstract; It is the constitutional mandate of the Republic of Indonesia to make elections a means of popular sovereignty and to be held every 5 years. Reflecting on the 2019 experience, elections were held simultaneously based on the Constitutional Court Decision MK No. 14/PUU-XI/2013 which simultaneously held presidential elections and national parliamentary elections and was followed up in Law No. 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections which also simultaneously held local parliamentary elections (provincial and district/city DPRD) along with presidential-vice presidential elections and parliamentary elections national (DPR and DPD). This assignment is directly proportional to the workload carried out by election organizers. For this reason, there is a need for health insurance and social security for election organizers as risk mitigation. In the future 2024 elections it has been anticipated through a strict recruitment process for election organizers and for social security the Presidential Instruction of the Republic of Indonesia has been issued Number 2 of 2021 concerning Optimizing the Implementation of the Employment Social Security Program.

Women politicians in Austria: Still not breaking the media ceiling

Abstract The underrepresentation of women politicians in the media is a persistent feature in many contemporary democracies. Gender bias in election coverage makes it harder for women to reach positions of power in politics. Drawing on the special circumstances in Austria during the 2019 election campaign which saw the first female top candidate of a major party and a caretaker government containing equal numbers of men and women and which was led by the country’s first woman as chancellor, we examine the effect of these developments on women politicians’ representation in campaign coverage. We draw on quantitative content analysis of Austrian newspaper articles (N = 16,125) during four national parliamentary election campaigns (2008, 2013, 2017 and 2019). We show that for women politicians the media ceiling is slowly lifting at best, but that positions of power provide the most promising ways to evade gendered media bias.

Balancing district and party seats: The arithmetic of mixed-member proportional electoral systems

Mixed-member proportional electoral systems (MMP) are widely praised because they combine the direct, personal election of MPs from single-seat constituencies with a proportional seat allocation. However, the size of the proportional tier matters for the question of whether the system's overall proportionality is preserved. Hence, a key challenge for constitution-makers and scholars is finding the right balance between district and proportional seats, so as to maximise district representation and guarantee proportional representation.This paper develops the first theoretical model that helps to locate this sweet spot for district and party seats. The novel solution builds on Taagepera's “logical models” about party sizes. The model is tested on 58 national parliamentary elections under MMP rules.

The Fulfilment of Election Pledges in India

The central idea of promissory representation is that parties make promises to voters during election campaigns and then fulfil those promises after elections if they have the power to do so. Until now, most comparative research on the making, breaking, and keeping of parties’ campaign promises, or “election pledges,” has considered Western democracies. The present study examines pledge fulfilment in India, focusing on pledges made by the two main Indian parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress at the 2009 and 2014 national parliamentary elections. The evidence indicates that election pledges are prominent parts of electoral discourse and policymaking in India, as they are in Western countries. However, the form of pledge making and keeping is characterised by the distinctive features of Indian politics, notably the prevalence of valence politics on socio-economic issues and identity politics on issues relating to religion, castes and tribes, and gender.

ON THE INTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 5

The article analyzes the cooperation of three pan-European political organizations – the Party of the European Left (PEL), the European Free Alliance (EFA) and the European Christian Political Movement (ECPD) – with their partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). All these European parties, since 2014, have sought to establish cooperation with ideologically close parties from these countries and even accepted them into their ranks as full members. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders, the results of participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections, interaction with other political forces of their countries on the formation of electoral and ruling coalitions were studied. The main provisions of their program documents, which reflect the pro-European choice, as well as press releases and statements by the leaders of the PEL, the EFA and the ECPM, concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership, are given. It is shown that all three European parties supported this program and their partners, regardless of their electoral results. It is noted that in Belarus and Moldova, the local PEL member parties, and in Ukraine, the ECPM member party initially achieved good results in national and local elections, but in recent years most of them have found themselves on the political periphery. The reasons for this phenomenon vary from country to country. Nevertheless, European leftists, Regionalists and Christian Democrats are confident that as the situation stabilizes, issues of social justice, strengthening sovereignty and preserving traditional values will return to the political agenda and become in demand again. It was noted that two more European parties, Identity and Democracy and the European Democratic Party, which have official registration in the EU, currently have no ties with parties from the Eastern Partnership member countries.

ON THE INNTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 4

The article analyzes the cooperation of one of the leading pan–European political organizations – the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists (AECR) – with its partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia and the Republic of Moldova). Since 2014, European conservatives and reformists have sought to establish partnerships with the conservative parties of these countries and even accepted them into their ranks as full members. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders, the results of participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections, interaction with other political forces of their countries on the formation of electoral and ruling coalitions were studied. The main provisions of their program documents, which reflect the pro-European choice, as well as press releases and statements by the leaders of the AECR concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership, are given. It is shown that the AECR actively supported this program and its partners, regardless of their electoral results. It was noted that in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova, local AECR member parties initially achieved good results in elections, including in national parliaments, but in recent years some of them have found themselves on the political periphery. The reasons for this phenomenon vary from country to country. Nevertheless, European conservatives and reformists are confident that as the situation stabilizes, the issues of strengthening sovereignty and preserving traditional values will return to the political agenda and become in demand again.

Le populisme comme phénomène de communication : une comparaison transversale et longitudinale des campagnes politiques sur Facebook

In this paper, we adopt the notion of populism as a communication phenomenon that includes typical elements of content (i.e. people, anti-elitism, and the exclusion of out-groups) and of style (i.e. evoking fear, oversimplification, and style of language). We thus move away from actor-centric approaches towards a content-centric approach of studying populism. Empirically, our study measures populism to varying degrees and forms in 3,564 Facebook posts of political parties in France, Germany and the United Kingdom during the 2014 EU election campaigns, the 2017 national parliamentary election campaigns, and a non-electoral period in 2018 in each country. The results show that populism is not a marginal phenomenon but that it is present in about one-fourth of all posts in some form; that there is variance between countries, party types, policy fields, and over time. While radical parties are very exclusionary towards out-groups on the right and very anti-elitist on the left and the right, this observation provides only a partial view of the multifaceted phenomenon of populism.

ON THE INNTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 3

The article analyzes the cooperation of one of the leading pan–European political organizations – the European Green Party (EPP) – with its partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Since 1994, the European Greens have established partnerships with the environmental parties of these countries and even accepted them into their ranks. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders, the results of participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections were studied. The interaction of these parties with other political forces of their countries on the formation of pre-election and ruling coalitions is considered. The main provisions of their program documents, which reflect the pro–European choice, as well as the resolutions of the EPZ Council concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program, are given. It is shown that the EPZ actively supported this program itself and its partners, regardless of their electoral results. It is noted that in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, local green parties initially achieved good results in elections, including in the national parliament, but in recent years they have fallen by the wayside of the party-political system of their countries due to a number of objective and subjective circumstances. First of all, this was due to the fact that the political turbulence characteristic of these states made environmental issues irrelevant to public consciousness. Nevertheless, the European greens are confident that as the situation stabilizes, the issues of environmental protection and sustainable development will return to the political agenda and the green parties will once again become in demand.

ON THE INTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 2

The article analyzes the results of cooperation of one of the leading pan-European political organizations – the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) with its partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine), with which ALDE has established cooperation and even accepted to become its members. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders were studied, including the results of their participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections, as well as interaction with other political forces of their countries to form electoral and ruling coalitions. Information is provided on when these parties became members of ALDE and what status they have today in this European Party. The main provisions of the program documents of these parties, which reflect their pro-European choice, are given. A number of resolutions adopted by the ALDE Council, which is the main governing body of this party, were considered, which concerned the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program and the support of their partner parties. It is shown how ALDE’s strategy regarding cooperation with parties from the Eastern Partnership member countries has changed depending on the results of their participation in parliamentary and presidential elections. It is noted that ALDEэs initial bet on cooperation with the former heads of these states, or well-known politicians, and the parties headed by them did not justify itself in Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. It is assumed that ALDE has recently changed its policy and is now betting on new parties led by young pro-European-oriented politicians, but it is not yet clear whether such a change in the paradigm of cooperation will justify itself

The Mobilizing Power of Influencers for Pro-Environmental Behavior Intentions and Political Participation

ABSTRACT So-called “influencers” increasingly use their popularity on social media to raise their voice to promote political topics such as climate change, human rights, or party politics. As digital opinion leaders they may exert a powerful influence on their followers’ attitudes and behavior, motivating them to protect the environment or to engage in political participation online. Based on the Gateway Hypothesis, we argue that these online activities may translate into offline participation over time. To test these assumptions, we conducted a two-wave panel study during the national parliamentary elections in Austria with a national quota sample (N T2 = 564). Findings reveal that following political influencers who post about elections or party politics increases online participation, which predicts higher offline participation over time. Moreover, following environmental influencers who promote content revolving around sustainability and climate change strengthens pro-environmental behavior intentions over time, which is also related to increased offline participation.

ON THE INTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 1

The article analyzes the results of cooperation between two leading pan-European political organizations – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Party of European Socialists (PES) with their counterparts in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine), except Azerbaijan. It is considered with which political forces and why the EPP and the PES have established interaction and even accepted them into their membership. The profiles of these political organizations were studied, including the results of their participation in the national parliamentary and presidential elections and interaction with other political forces of their countries on the formation of ruling coalitions. Information is provided on when these parties joined, respectively, the EPP and the PES, and what status they have today in these European structures. The main provisions of the resolutions of the governing bodies of the EPN and the PES concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program and the support of their partner parties in these countries are presented. It shows how the foreign policy course of the Eastern Partnership member countries changed after political organizations that closely cooperate with their European counterparts came to power. It is noted that in almost all of these countries there has recently been a steady desire to strengthen political and economic partnership with the European Union and Western countries in general. And only one country. Georgia is still trying to maintain a balance in relations with Western countries and Russia. Key words: European parties, party system, Eastern Partnership program, elections.

Local voting at local elections revisited: ‘Friends and neighbors voting’ at mayoral elections in rural Poland

Voters' tendency to support local candidates, often referred to as ‘friends and neighbors voting’, is a spatial-political phenomenon studied for over 70 years. The last decade has seen a revival of interest in this issue. Relevant studies typically focus on large-scale national electoral contests, such as national parliamentary elections. The research efforts targeting local elections are, by contrast, scarce, in most cases dating back to the 1970s. In this article, we address this relative gap in the electoral geography literature and study ‘friends and neighbors voting’ at the most recent set of mayoral elections in Poland, held in 2018. Based on a rich dataset, covering elections in over 700 rural municipalities, we demonstrate strong local candidate effects in both voter choice and voter turnout. The results point to the potential relevance of both geographic distance and a place (locality) attachment; voters tend to prefer candidates living close to them and candidates enjoy an additional surplus of votes in their home localities. Our results also tend to echo the sparse previous findings emphasizing the possibility that the presence of a local candidate boosts voter turnout in a given area. While the limitations of our data do not allow unequivocal conclusions about the exact mechanisms driving the aforementioned effects, we put forward a number of plausible, grounded conjectures as to how such effects may operate.

Where the Grass is Greener: Comparing Green Party Success in National Parliamentary Elections and the 2019 European Parliamentary Election

Why do Green parties perform better in European Parliament (EP) elections than in national parliament elections? Even in countries that use proportionally representative voting systems for both national and EP elections, many Green parties gained more than twice the proportion of EP seats in 2019 compared to the previous national election. Using national and EP election results, European Social Survey data, and Eurobarometer polling from the 2019 EP election, I test competing theories of Green party success. As EP voter issues become more salient and more voters believe that their vote matters to EU policy, I find that the “second-order election” effect is less relevant. Surprisingly, I also find that the Greens are the only small party family that consistently gained more representation in the EP. Different voter priorities and party issue framing, for both environmental and pro-EU issues, boosted the Green vote in the 2019 EP election.

Majoritarian politics and hate crimes against religious minorities: Evidence from India, 2009–2018

• In 2014, the Hindu nationalist BJP won the national parliamentary elections in India. • The BJP’s exclusivist, nationalist ideology has constructed Muslims as the ‘other’. • BJP’s electoral victory in 2014 increased hate crimes against religious minorities. • Accounting for unobserved confounders does not change the results qualitatively. Did the unprecedented victory of the right-wing, Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2014 national elections in India increase hate crimes against religious minorities? I investigate this question using a difference-in-difference methodology and a novel state-level panel data set for the period 2009–18. To provide context, I offer a brief historical account of Hindu nationalism and a descriptive account of anti-minority hate crimes in India between 2009 and 2018. Turning to the econometric analysis, I estimate a binary treatment regression model (states where BJP won the largest plurality of votes in the 2014 national elections form the treatment group). My results show that BJP’s electoral victory in 2014 caused an increase in the incidence of hate crimes against religious minorities, especially Muslims. I test for robustness of my results by using two falsification tests and a count data model specification. I account for possible omitted variable bias and compute bias-adjusted treatment effects. I conclude that unobserved confounders are unlikely to nullify the results.

Mind the gap: How party–voter incongruence fuels the entry and support of new parties

AbstractThis article examines to what extent ideological incongruence (i.e., mismatch between policy positions of voters and parties) increases the entry of new parties in national parliamentary elections and their individual‐level electoral support. Current empirical research on party entry and new party support either neglects the role of party–voter incongruence, or it only examines its effect on the entry and support of specific new parties or party families. This article fills this lacuna. Based on spatial theory, we hypothesise that parties are more likely to enter when ideological incongruence between voters and parties is higher (Study 1) and that voters are more likely to vote for new parties if these stand closer to them than established parties (Study 2). Together our two studies span 17 countries between 1996 and 2016. Time‐series analyses support both hypotheses. This has important implications for spatial models of elections and empirical research on party entry and new party support.

Gender differences in civic and political engagement and participation among Italian young people

A substantial amount of literature has revealed gender gaps in political participation. However, little is known about such gaps when using more comprehensive measures of civic and political participation including online participation. In the present study, we recruited a sample (n = 1792) of young people living in Italy. Controlling for age, majority/minority status, socioeconomic status, respondents’ educational attainment, and parents’ educational attainment, we found that female participants reported higher scores on online and civic participation, while male participants were more likely to report political and activist participation. The effect size for these gender differences was small. In addition, we did not find any gender differences in voting behavior in the last European parliamentary elections, national parliamentary elections, and local elections. These findings highlight the need to move toward a more comprehensive and detailed picture of gender gaps in political engagement and participation including different types of participation.

The Looming Refugee Crisis in the EU: Right‐Wing Party Competition and Strategic Positioning

AbstractDespite a rise in the number of competitive far right parties leading up to the European refugee crisis, some centre right parties achieved or maintained electoral success. We argue that some centre right parties recognize the electoral opportunity for radical right parties to exploit the refugee crisis for electoral gains and strategically adopt hard‐line positions on immigration to maintain and even increase their electoral success. We test our theory of strategic positioning using data on party competition in national parliamentary elections across 28 EU member states at the start of the refugee crisis. Strategic positioning appears to be a particularly successful choice for centre right parties. The quantitative analysis is supported by case studies in Western Europe of Austria and The Netherlands. Whilst strategic positioning may produce short‐term electoral success, it also mainstreams radical immigration positions in contemporary European politics, with negative implications for liberal democracy in Europe.

The concept of types of popular representation

Democracy has many appearances. The principle of democracy is implemented in republics as well as monarchies, unitary states and federations. This article proposes a new dimension of democracy – the type of popular representation – which depends on the electoral system used in national parliamentary elections. The ownership of power in the state by the people is ensured by the functioning of a representative body elected by citizens and having exclusive authority to pass laws that are binding on all. In addition, the parliament participates in the formation of bodies of other branches of power and approves the budget. Thus, research into the manifestations of the institution of popular representation is important not only for countries with a parliamentary government, but also for all other states. The direct dependence of the composition of the legislature on the will of the people guarantees that the actions of the state are subordinated to the interests of this entity. An electoral system is used to identify this will of the people. However, the significance of this legal mechanism is not limited to the role of a guide between votes and parliamentary mandates alone. The electoral system is a “double-edged” instrument that can influence the exercise of power by the people. The purpose of this article is to analyse this influence and demonstrate the existence of three types of popular representation formed by different categories of electoral systems. Types of people’s representation arise as a result of the repeated application of a certain mechanism and the following establishment of the party composition of the parliament and party structure of the government. The established type of people’s representation is characterised by the varying degree of effectiveness of political parties in expressing and realising the interests of the people. In addition, the implementation of the principle of alternation of power and the functioning of the checks and balances are also dependent on the electoral system used. This article formulates a concept that makes it possible to differentiate the way democracy is developed in the state and to consider transparently the constitutional and legal consequences of the choice of the electoral system.