National Energy Use Research Articles

Energy and emission monitoring for policy use Trend analysis with reconstructed energy balances

At the request of policy makers a new tool, called MONIT, has been developed for the presentation and analysis of historical energy use and emission trends. The tool is based on the concept of constructed energy balances. The system covers Dutch national and sectoral energy use and the accompanying CO 2 emissions, from 1982 onwards. In the presentation part the energy balance with statistical figures is corrected for disruptions in statistics and yearly climate variations. Next to time series for all energy variables and sectors, information is also available about the final demand for electricity or heat and about co-generation, primary energy use as well as direct and indirect CO 2 emissions. In the analysis part the energy use developments are mapped with a step-by-step constructed set of energy balances, starting from the base year balance. In each step a supplementary explanatory factor is introduced and the effects are made into an updated balance. In this way the actual changes in energy use are unravelled into 14 explanatory factors, including four different energy-related structural changes, five saving factors, fuel mix changes and changes in export and import of energy. It is possible to reconstruct the actual energy balances within a small margin and most of the 14 contributing factors can be calculated with only a small uncertainty. The MONIT system offers policy makers an integrated set of monitoring results with different levels of information content: statistical data, time series, final and primary energy use, direct and indirect CO 2 emissions, intensities and policy relevant contributions to the actual changes in energy and emission variables.

The Canadian Building Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Centre at the University of Alberta

A national competition in 200112002 led to the establishment of CBEEDAC, a new Data and Analysis Centre created in cooperatione with both the Department of Economics and the School of Business at the University of Alberta. It is one of four Canadian Data and Analysis Centres supported, in part, by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) as part of their National Energy Use Database (NEUD) initiative.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF JAPANESE TOURISM AND LEISURE

Structural change towards environmentally benign service industries is widely considered a key strategy for sustainable development. However the environmental impact of service industries is not negligible. This paper analyses the environmental impact of Japanese leisure and tourism. The methodological problems and pitfalls are discussed and a new methodological framework is elaborated. The results suggest that leisure and tourism are responsible for 17% of the national greenhouse gas emissions, and 13% of the national primary energy use. Also a considerable part of the national land use is affected by leisure and tourism. The impact on biodiversity is hard to quantify because of inadequate monitoring systems, reference definition problems and interacting causes of environmental pressure. The environmental impact diverge widely for different types of leisure and tourism activities. Given these results, the sustainability of economic growth based on leisure and tourism should be analysed more carefully.

Analysing International Tourist Flows to Estimate Energy Use Associated with Air Travel

Tourism is a major global industry and air travel is an increasingly vital component of international tourism. This paper examines the neglected relationship between tourism and aviation with regard to global environmental impacts, including energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Based on visitor arrival data collected by Statistics New Zealand, it estimates a total energy use of 27.8 PJ resulting from international passenger air travel to New Zealand, which would increase national energy use by 6% if international air travel were included in national inventories. This energy use translates into additional carbon dioxide emissions of 1.9 million tonnes. These estimates are discussed in terms of a tourist's 'energy bill', national and international climate change policies, and with regard to the concept of sustainable tourism development.

Toxic Emissions from Mobile Sources: A Total Fuel-Cycle Analysis for Conventional and Alternative Fuel Vehicles

ABSTRACT Mobile sources are among the largest contributors of four hazardous air pollutants—benzene, 1,3-butadiene, acetal-dehyde, and formaldehyde—in urban areas. At the same time, federal and state governments are promoting the use of alternative fuel vehicles as a means to curb local air pollution. As yet, the impact of this movement toward alternative fuels with respect to toxic emissions has not been well studied. The purpose of this paper is to compare toxic emissions from vehicles operating on a variety of fuels, including reformulated gasoline (RFG), natural gas, ethanol, methanol, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity. This study uses a version of Argonne National Laboratory's Greenhouse Gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, appropriately modified to estimate toxic emissions. The GREET model conducts a total fuel-cycle analysis that calculates emissions from both downstream (e.g., operation of the vehicle) and upstream (e.g., fuel production and distribution) stages of the fuel cycle. We find that almost all of the fuels studied reduce 1,3-buta-diene emissions compared with conventional gasoline (CG). However, the use of ethanol in E85 (fuel made with 85% ethanol) or RFG leads to increased acetaldehyde emissions, and the use of methanol, ethanol, and compressed natural gas (CNG) may result in increased formaldehyde emissions. When the modeling results for the four air toxics are considered together with their cancer risk factors, all the fuels and vehicle technologies show air toxic emission reduction benefits.

Cool surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use and improve air quality in urban areas

Elevated summertime temperatures in urban ‘heat islands’ increase cooling-energy use and accelerate the formation of urban smog. Except in the city’s core areas, summer heat islands are created mainly by the lack of vegetation and by the high solar radiation absorptance by urban surfaces. Analysis of temperature trends for the last 100 years in several large U.S. cities indicate that, since ∼1940, temperatures in urban areas have increased by about 0.5–3.0°C. Typically, electricity demand in cities increases by 2–4% for each 1°C increase in temperature. Hence, we estimate that 5–10% of the current urban electricity demand is spent to cool buildings just to compensate for the increased 0.5–3.0°C in urban temperatures. Downtown Los Angeles (L.A.), for example, is now 2.5°C warmer than in 1920, leading to an increase in electricity demand of 1500 MW. In L.A., smoggy episodes are absent below about 21°C, but smog becomes unacceptable by 32°C. Because of the heat-island effects, a rise in temperature can have significant impacts. Urban trees and high-albedo surfaces can offset or reverse the heat-island effect. Mitigation of urban heat islands can potentially reduce national energy use in air conditioning by 20% and save over $10B per year in energy use and improvement in urban air quality. The albedo of a city may be increased at minimal cost if high-albedo surfaces are chosen to replace darker materials during routine maintenance of roofs and roads. Incentive programs, product labeling, and standards could promote the use of high-albedo materials for buildings and roads. Similar incentive-based programs need to be developed for urban trees.

Mexico: the sleeping RE giant?

México is a country with great potential for renewable-energy use for a number of very good reasons. First, it has good resources: high levels of solar radiation (an estimated national average of 5 kWh/m 2-day), high potential for wind-power generation in several regions (estimated to be around 5,000 MW), hundreds of sites with hydro-power potential of 50 MW or less, and an undetermined but certainly high biomass-potential. Second, the country has a technological and industrial base that could design, assemble, install, and operate the potential renewable-energy systems that could be in place in México if renewable energy was more widely used. Third, it needs to diversify its energy portfolio due to its great dependance on fossil fuels (close to 90% of the national energy use comes from oil, gas and coal). And fourth, local and regional environmental concerns are pushing for a reduction of air and water pollution resulting from the extraction, transformation, transportation, and final combustion of those fuels. Odón de Buen R., M.S., General Director, Comisión Nacional para el Ahorro de Energía, México presents a view of current and potential developments for RE in the region.

National Health, Wealth, and Energy Use

SUMMARY Great disparity exists in the distribution of wealth among nations. National well-being, as measured by such commonly accepted indicators as infant mortality, child malnutrition, life expectancy, and literacy rates correlates well with national wealth, which, in turn, correlates well with energy consumption. Developed industrial nations rank high in national well-being; however, on a percapita basis, these nations own a disproportionate share of world wealth and consume a disproportionate share of the world’s energy. Economic growth correlates well with growth of energy consumption in both rich and poor nations, and, conversely, reductions in energy consumption correlate with economic decline. When energy consumption is expressed as a function of gross national product (GNP) instead of on a per-capita basis, developed nations use energy more efficiently than poorer ones. Fossil fuels furnish 90% of the world’s energy (oil and gas supply 63%), and their use has grown by 14% over the last decade (oil and gas use is up 19%). Long-range concerns about depleting fossil-fuel resources and more immediate concerns about increases in atmospheric CO2 produced by their combustion and the postulated ill effects of global warming weigh against continued increase in use of fossil fuels and favor alternative energy sources. Examination of alternatives suggests that none of the alternatives, other than possibly nuclear and hydropower (both in environmental and political disfavor), offer hope for supplying more than a fraction of demand. Hence, either the natural limits on use of fossil fuels set by depleting resources or the setting of artificial limits in an effort to control CO2 emissions (tentatively agreed to in Kyoto and Buenos Aires) contrast starkly with the need for more energy consumption to improve the economic development of all nations and particularly the poorer ones. This paper explores these relationships and identifies some of the hard choices that lie ahead that inevitably will impact the use of oil and gas.

National Health, Wealth, and Energy Use

National Health, Wealth, and Energy Use

Accounting for energy use in China, 1980–94

This study contains quantitative methods to account for national energy use. Based on these models, an analysis has been made of energy consumption, efficiency and savings in China in the period 1980–94. Our study supports the conclusion that the energy efficiency has improved since China's economic reform. However, the statistical system used in China is not sound. Greater attention must be paid to the management of small coal mines.

Strategies for conservation of fuel and energy resources in the Leningrad region

The Leningrad economic region of the U.S.S.R. affects national energy use both because it is the largest producer of power generating machinery and because it is a major consumer of energy. Energy savings are being obtained from advanced characteristics of the machinery manufactured in Leningrad, as illustrated by data for steam turbines, steam generators, and combined-cycle systems. Energy savings are also being achieved at industrial facilities by integrating scientific, technical, organizational, and economic approaches, as illustrated by our programs for the aluminum and the pulp and paper industries, and for grinding technology.

Energy and the U.S. Economy: A Biophysical Perspective

A series of hypotheses is presented about the relation of national energy use to national economic activity (both time series and cross-sectional) which offer a different perspective from standard economics for the assessment of historical and current economic events. The analysis incorporates nearly 100 years of time series data and 3 years of cross-sectional data on 87 sectors of the United States economy. Gross national product, labor productivity, and price levels are all correlated closely with various aspects of energy use, and these correlations are improved when corrections are made for energy quality. A large portion of the apparent increase in U.S. energy efficiency has been due to our ability to expand the relative use of high-quality fuels such as petroleum and electricity, and also to relative shifts in fuel use between sectors of the economy. The concept of energy return on investment is introduced as a major driving force in our economy, and data are provided which show a marked decline in energy return on investment for all our principal fuels in recent decades. Future economic growth will depend largely on the net energy yield of alternative fuel sources, and some standard economic models may need to be modified to account for the biophysical constraints on human economic activity.

Life-cycle cost analysis of major appliances

The Department of Energy has proposed energy efficiency standards for eight types of appliances. One of the criteria used to establish these standards is the economic impact of the standard on the consumers of the regulated products. A life-cycle cost analysis was performed for 32 classes of these eight appliances in order to gain a measure of the economic impact of equipment purchases on the consumer. Simple payback times were also computed to indicate how much time is required for the consumer to recapture his or her initial added investment in a more efficient product. Using national average energy use for each appliance type, we found that the proposed 1986 standards are cost-effective with respect to the energy efficiency levels projected to occur in the absence of standards for all classes of products. Simple payback periods range from several months for refrigerators and freezers to a maximum of 5.3 years for split system central air conditioners. A regional life-cycle cost analysis indicated that the distribution of costs and benefits from the proposed national standards varies significantly among the different regions for air conditioners and furnaces. In the region with the least cooling load hours, simple payback times are quite lengthy for air conditioners, and in some cases exceed the appliance lifetime.

An analysis of residential space heating in New Zealand

An engineering-economic model which simulates residential energy use in New Zealand for 1976 – 2000 has been developed. This paper describes a detailed engineering analysis which was made to determine the effect of various factors on energy use for space heating. The information gained from many computer simulations is used to develop a quantitative relationship between heating energy use and major determinants-climatic location, building type and intensity of use. In view of the New Zealand attitude to home heating, particular attention was paid to the effect of intermittent heating. A method to establish national average annual energy use from regional climate and housing distribution data is presented. A set of forecasts based on three different growth scenarios was developed; the inputs and the resulting heating energy use forecasts are described. The analysis demonstrates that the potential of conservation programmes to reduce energy use, with little effect on comfort conditions, can be substantial; in fact, it is possible to achieve a negative growth. Finally, the limitations of the analysis are discussed.

The ORNL Residential Energy-Use Model: Structure and Results

The Residential Energy-Use Model at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory is used to analyze the effects of various conservation policies and techniques on costs and uses over time. Four fuels, eight end uses, and three housing types provide inputs to a simulation of national annual energy use. Each component is further subdivided and analyzed to make the model sensitive to demographic, economic, and technological factors and to show the effects of different energy-conservation options. 31 references.