An analysis of residential space heating in New Zealand

Abstract

An engineering-economic model which simulates residential energy use in New Zealand for 1976 – 2000 has been developed. This paper describes a detailed engineering analysis which was made to determine the effect of various factors on energy use for space heating. The information gained from many computer simulations is used to develop a quantitative relationship between heating energy use and major determinants-climatic location, building type and intensity of use. In view of the New Zealand attitude to home heating, particular attention was paid to the effect of intermittent heating. A method to establish national average annual energy use from regional climate and housing distribution data is presented. A set of forecasts based on three different growth scenarios was developed; the inputs and the resulting heating energy use forecasts are described. The analysis demonstrates that the potential of conservation programmes to reduce energy use, with little effect on comfort conditions, can be substantial; in fact, it is possible to achieve a negative growth. Finally, the limitations of the analysis are discussed.